General Analysis - Taking Risks

General analysis - Taking risks

Everyone who plays Pokémon competively knows about that thing everyone complains about. It may favor you, but it can totally screw you up as well. It has the potential to totally turn the tide of a battle and it probably already did in a battle of yours.

Luck.
You can't control luck, but you can try to work with it. Although you should never ever end up relying on luck, there are difficult situations you can solve with a bit of luck. Taking the risk to use a relative low-accuracy move to screw over your opponent can be the key to victory.

This guide doesn't deal with prediction, neither does it deal with general luck as well. These are covered in other guides already anyway.
No, this guide is meant to show you how to use moves with sub-par average correctly.

Random note:
Luck is a big part of the game. Don't blame me or anyone if something random didn't happen in your favor. It's a part of the game and you're not going to get rid of it anyway. Just smile and laugh about it. (Actually, being fully paralyzed five times in a row is not something for you to complain about, I mean, isn't it hilarious?)



I'll start this guide with introducing a random movement. It's just a good example concerning this guide and doesn't need to be debated about.

Ninetales (F) @ Leftovers
Trait: Flash Fire
EVs: 204 HP / 252 Spd / 52 SAtk
Timid Nature (+Spd, -Atk)
- Fire Blast
- Grudge
- Hypnosis
- Will-O-Wisp

I'll give some brief notes concerning the moves.

- Fire Blast : Offensive move - enough said
- Grudge : Sure to hit and effective, but it requires Ninetales to faint.
- Hypnosis : Low accuracy (60%), but inflicting sleep on something ends up being pretty supportive.
- Will-O-Wisp : Moderate chance to hit (75%). Burning a Pokèmon cuts it's attack by half, but you'll probably be swiftly met with a water type or something similar if you send out Ninetales.

Concering the opponent's actions, we just predict them right in the examples. You should predict anyway before considering to take a (huge) risk.


Situation 1: Cursepert

Now, let's start off with a situation totally not favoring you. We assume your Skarmory got suprised by Magneton and your Ludicolo just fainted.
While your opponent sends his Swampert in, which you know to be a Cursepert with Ice Beam and Earthquake, you are examinating your Pokèmon: Salamence, (DD-)Tyranitar, Blissey and said Ninetales. Nothing that could counter a Cursepert.
You predict Swampert to curse and therefore send Ninetales in, as you're hoping to put it asleep/to burn it.
Your first attempt to sleep/burn it however failed, while Swampert continues to curse up. After seeing your attempt to hinder it, it'll probably use Earthquake against you.

Now, what are you going to do? You surely don't want that pesky Swampert to sweep the rest of your team with two curses under it's belt, so you'll have to find a way to stop it.
Ninetales is probably the only thing left that can somehow hinder Swampert, so you don't want to switch out now, regardless of your opponent's team.

Considering a move:

Fire Blast - Using Fire Blast against Swampert is a sign of insanity, so we won't even consider this.

Hypnosis - If Hypnosis hits, you'll probably stop Swampert cold, but if it misses (and 40% chance to miss is damn high), Swampert could use Earthquake and you're screwed.

Will-O-Wisp - It may help your Tyranitar and Blissey to take the Earthquakes, but don't forget it's doubled defense remains and a DD-Tar won't get past a + 2 defense Swampert, whereas Blissey won't do much thanks to Rest. And it can miss as well. Earthquake will screw Ninetales up anyway, no matter if 'Pert is burned or not.

Grudge - Grudge may be a surefire way to get rid of it's Earthquakes, but don't forget, you'll have to sacrifice Ninetales (And you need to predict an incoming Earthquake).


You don't know what to do now? Well, if you're sure your opponent will use Earthquake, Grudge will definately hinder 'Pert a lot, as well as allowing Blissey and maybe 'Tar beating it. Ninetales will be gone, but you'll just have saved the match...for now.
Hypnosis however is a bigger risk. You all know this: High risk, but relative high pay-off. Chances are a sleeping 'Pert won't stand continuous beating of your other Pokèmon.
Remember - Even if you may need Ninetales to counter one of your opponent's other Pokèmon, Ninetales will probably never face this Pokèmon if you can't stop Swampert.

You see - There is no "perfect" decision in this situation. The decision depends on you and your attitude towards taking risks. But if you carefully think about your possibilities you'll be able to seperate one or two actions to perform.


Situation 2: Blissey

The second situation - The match has been going on for some turns, both teams are slighty weakened, but no Pokèmon fainted yet. Your Ninetales however is below 100 HP. Even worse, you end up switching in your Ninetales at the same time your opponent switches his Blissey in.
With that low HP you're not going to survive a Seismic Toss, but you may hinder Blissey in several ways.
Three Pokemon of your team however can take on Blissey rather well.
It's pretty obvious that Blissey will use Seismic Toss.

Considering a move:

Fire Blast - You must be kidding. You're not going to get through that massive special sponge Blissey is with a pathetic Fire Blast.

Hypnosis - Even though Blissey has got Natural Cure, putting it asleep might be helpful, seeing as it'll have to switch out to wake up, giving you atleast one free turn. The low accuracy may disappoint you though.

Will-O-Wisp - WoW won't make that much sense here. Blissey doesn't really have an attack stat you could cut into half. Don't think about it.

Grudge - Oh, you can deplete all of ST's PP by only sacrificing Ninetales and therefore nearly nullify Blissey's offence? Having a Blissey unable to even scratch something like Suicune may help, but do you really want to sacrifice Ninetales that early?

Switching - Blissey isn't going to sweep your team, so why don't you just switch out to one of your Blissey counters?


No need to involve risk here, just switch out as Blissey isn't that much of a threat. You're probably better off saving Ninetales for a real threat later on. If you're really obsessed with taking risks, go ahead and use Hypnosis, but don't complain about it missing afterwards. If your team is built to have a huge advantage once Blissey's PP are gone, then you can surely go with Grudge as well.
Even if switching is probably the best way, your choice may differ depending on your team, as well as on the opponent's team, but also depending on yourself again.


Other situations and other moves:

There are a lot of other possible situations and, of course, other moves involving risks, but I think those two are enough for now. You get the point anyway. If you want to suggest some situations, go ahead.


Closing comments:

Don't forget. Luck will never be something to rely on. Most of the time you're better off taking as few huge risks as possible. Well, it's high risk-high payoff, but you know, it doesn't have to work.
Taking risks also involves long-term-thinking. You don't want to risk losing your main counter for three of the opponent's Pokèmon, but may end up taking a lot more risks with a Pokèmon that already has done it's job.
This is no prediction by the way. Prediction takes place before you actually consider using risky moves.
If you're thinking of the three main aspects affecting the outcome of a battle ( Team - Skill - Luck), this guide obviously handles luck to a big extent. Skill, however, is involved as well. Analysing the situation and deciding after calculating your chances doesn't have anything to do with luck.

Finally, I can't tell which move you have to use in risky situations, neither can anyone else. The final decision can only be made by the battler himself.


...and don't act like a troll if you just got screwed by luck....


Side note: Low-chance side effects:

As a last thing, I'll comment on those side effects happening with 10-30% chance. Whenever you're using a move with an added side effect, don't ever rely on it and also don't hope for it, unless you're in really desperated situation.
(A critical Cross Chop may be the only chance to defeat that Snorlax with six curses, but just don't think it'll always force a critical hit. A Rock Slide flinch may as well help to finish up a huge threat, but seriously, you just can't count on 30% chance.)
It's no mistake to remind yourself (for example) of the possible freezing capabilities Ice Beam has got though. Freezing an incoming Snorlax or Blissey is always nice to see.


The end.

Taking a risk in Pokémon is like taking a risk nearly everywhere. If it works, it'll pay off....

Pointing out some typos I made would be nice.
 
For most part this points out some obvious things, but in conjunction with The Basics of Prediction, Alper's Luck analysis and Long-Term thinking it should provide some theoretical skill for beginners.

I'd say that in situation #1, Grudge is a pretty safe bet, putting Swampert into a checkmate position. If you use Grudge, Swampert can:
1 Ice Beam, which does shit against you, and even if it kills you Salamence can freely come in
2 Earthquake, which makes Blissey and Tyranitar own it
3 Curse
4 Surf, but I assumed it didnt have it since it wasn't mentioned, plus Tyranitar wouldn't beat it then if EQ was gone
5 Rest, so you could come in with Salamence and Intimidate, as well as Dragon Dance once and just pray for a CH because you don't have much better options

In cases #1, #3 and #5, you are free to Will-o-Wisp Swampert which will usually hit, making him more vulnerable to Tyranitar. If it has to Rest you can try to CH it, or you could come back later with Ninetales to Grudge it. In case #4 you're fucked. In case #2, well you said it, Tyranitar and Blissey won't have any trouble with it anymore.
 
examinating your Pokèmon
I think examinating is an awesome word, and am I the only one who finds it funny that he took the time to put the accent on the "e" in Pokemon, but it was the wrong one? It should be "Pokémon." Lol.

Other than that, this guide is kinda... incomplete. I think you should have focused more on the risk : reward ratio that essentially defines the game, and less on situational Swampert stuff. Though I guess that's kinda covered in the prediction guide. Whatever.
 
This guide doesn't deal with prediction, neither does it deal with general luck as well.
Concering the opponent's actions, we just predict them right in the examples. You should predict anyway before considering to take a (huge) risk.

Thunder should have it's own section in any kind of guide like this. So should Rock Slide. I realize what an integral part Ninetales plays in today's metagame, but Rock Slide is ocassionally used as well.

50/50 speed match-ups, like Dugtrio/Dugtrio, Dugtrio/Alakazam, Raikou/Starmie, Gengar/Espeon, Jolteon/Aerodactyl, etc should be mentioned too.

I also really don't like the way the whole guide is structured. Risk taking shouldn't be something you build your team around. It's something that you're sometimes forced into doing to try and salvage the game when you lose Skarmory to a Magneton early on.

Prediction really is a huge part of prediction, especially with moves like Explosion, and almost any CB move. If you have a CB Flygon that you switched into a Moltres Flamethrower, and they have a Donphan sitting in back within EQ KO range, you have to consider the risk of EQing and getting WoW'd, forced to switch out while Moltres laughs in your face. On the other hand, if you get stuck with CB Rock Slide against Donphan, you're going to have to switch too. So what do you do? If you're stuck with nothing else against that Donphan because your Starmie died, it might not be a bad idea to take the risk...but then again your opponent might be expecting that.

That also goes for the defensive end. Suppose you're up against an opposing Medicham that just switched into your Dusclops Pain Split. If you stay in, you're likely to get KO'd by Shadow Ball. But then again, your opponent knows that too, and might expect that you'd play it safe and bring Skarmory in to take the Shadow Ball, and smack you with CB Focus Punch. Here's a wild idea: why not switch to Snorlax? If your opponent has better control of the field, they're more likely to play it safe, and not take the risk of Focus Punching Dusclops. Plus, they don't want to risk getting burned. And, though it is risky, if you can switch Snorlax into a CB Shadow Ball, they're stuck. If you do switch Snorlax into that Shadow Ball, you've got it made. But, your opponent might realize this, and if you could keep your Dusclops in, burn them, and they'd have to switch and you could Burn the switch-in. Switching in Skarmory might be more safe, and certainly isn't a bad choice since even if Skarmory does take Focus Punch they'll have to switch out or be Drill Pecked, but if you can correctly predict whether they're going to Focus Punch or Shadow Ball, the payoff is high, and it's a risk you might be willing to take. If you're behind and that Medicham is a threat you want to incapacitate, it might be in your best interests to Burn it. Or if you were thinking of a Snorlax sweep that you just can't pull off in front of Tyranitar and Metagross without that free turn, you might want to try and get it in there.

Yeah. I do realize those are really specific examples, but you get the idea.
 
Never hope for the 10% thing is a lesson I unlearned for my own good in RBY. Never put yourself in the situation where you need it to hit on a given turn is good to remember. The thing is, with Ice Beam in particular, the added effect is really good. If it happens to something without Natural Cure, they are out of it for several turns at least, and even if they have a beller they still have to mess around with that before the Pokemon is usable. The thing is, if you predict a switch to, say, Snorlax in on your Starmie, and you happen to know this is a lax that can't hurt Gengar which you have, you are best off IBing it on the switch instead of switching straight to Gengar. Gengar will prompt the same switch to whatever he has that deals with Gengar, but IB has a chance for a freeze. Once or twice it won't happen, but if you do this 5 or 6 times and the odds for a freeze are looking pretty good. Once his lax is frozen Starmie might be able to sweep it away with STAB surf or another of your special sweepers might be able to CM up unhindered.

Ok, it's not exactly common as I had to avoid both Bliss and Regice as my examples, but it does come up, and it can be a boon. It's basically taking a risk of wasting PP in exchange for dealing a nasty freeze. It's a worthwhile risk IMO. It does happen otherwise as well, namely on water coming in on water. Freezing that Milotic could be very game changing.

Also, I was surprised when I saw low accuracy moves and didn't see Zap Cannon or Dynamicpunch. I could say a lot about those too, but I'd argue that using those well comes down to making them not so much of a risk(use by high defense Pokemon who can try many times) so it is kinda contrary to this analysis. Then again, with those moves its always a risk. Sleep Talk is also a very risky move with potentially great rewards. Something you know has a flying move comes in on your sleeping cross. Do you ST it hoping for a move that can kill, or do you switch? I think that sort of thing fits.
 

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