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Ice Arceus (Analysis)

Discussion in 'Uploaded Analyses' started by Ditto, Aug 17, 2010.

  1. Ditto

    Ditto /me huggles
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    [​IMG]
    http://www.smogon.com/dp/pokemon/arceus
    ==================================
    Status: Ready to upload
    QC Approval: 3/3 [Fireburn][Great Sage][bojangles]
    QC Rejection: 0/3 [NONE][NONE][NONE]
    Grammar/Prose Check: 2/2 [jc104][Draco Zephyr]
    Grammar/Prose Addition Check: 1/1 [calentaros]
    ==================================

    [Overview]

    <p>With the attachment of the Icicle Plate the Creator has turned frigid and exhausted its attachment to the world around it. With cold-hearted eyes Arceus gazes over its ruinous creation and declares an omnipotent, hyperborean Judgment on all Pokemon who tremble before it, devastating the terrain and leaving behind only a petrified tundra. While this glacial visage of Arceus cannot boast the same defensive typing that others can, it can boast one of the most offensive forms this divine creature can take. Stand before this majestic beast if you dare, but if you do not have a will of steel prepare to be eradicated.</p>

    [SET]
    name: Calm Mind
    move 1: Calm Mind
    move 2: Judgment
    move 3: Thunder
    move 4: Recover / Earth Power / Flamethrower
    item: Icicle Plate
    nature: Timid
    evs: 100 HP / 100 Def / 100 SpA / 100 SpD / 100 Spe

    [SET COMMENTS]

    <p>With no strong physical STAB move and Ice's weaknesses to common attacking types (Rock-, Fighting-, and Fire-type moves), a special sweeper set is the best option for Ice Arceus. Despite its weaknesses, Arceus's great offensive typing and access to Judgment and Thunder give it the ability to be a very potent special sweeper. With its natural bulk, Arceus can take hits pretty well despite its horrible defensive typing. Its stats and EVs also allow this Arceus to hit a Speed of 331, allowing it to outrun positively-natured Base 100 Pokemon. However, the true beauty of this Arceus is in its Judgment, which with the Icicle Plate attached becomes a 180 BP Ice move (factoring in STAB and Icicle Plate boost) that hits 14 Uber Pokemon for super effective and is resisted by only six. Add Thunder to the set and you get the infamous BoltBeam combo that has perfect neutral coverage except for against Lanturn, Magnezone, and Shedinja. Add the ability to boost Special Attack and Special Defense simultaneously and a reliable recovery move and you have an excellent late-game sweeper.</p>

    <p>While this set maybe seem to be outclassed by other Arceus due to its poor defensive typing and weakness to Stealth Rock, it has several important jobs it can do. It has the ever prominent BoltBeam combo, while the only other Arceus who can pull BoltBeam off as successfully is Electric Arceus. Unlike Electric Arceus, it is also among one of the few Calm Mind Arceus sets that is able to beat the Lati twins when fought one-on-one.</p>

    [Additional Comments]

    <p>The EVs given may look a bit strange, but they are the best we can currently give Arceus. The only Arceus that can legally be obtained is the えいがかん/MICHINA/TRU Arceus that comes at level 100. The only way to EV train a level 100 Pokemon is through Vitamins, so Arceus can only have EVs that are multiples of 10 to a maximum of 100 in any particular stat. While this would cripple any normal Pokemon, Arceus can survive with this EV restriction due to its incredibly high Base Stats. While this does hinder its abilities somewhat, a positive nature and 100 EVs in Speed allows Arceus to outspeed positively-natured Base 100 Pokemon. The distribution of 100 EVs to all of its stats also gives Arceus reasonable bulk to add to its outstanding 120/120/120 defenses to add onto everything else Arceus has to offer.</p>

    <p>The biggest obstacle for Ice Arceus is the amount of Steel-type Pokemon in the Uber metagame who can wall Arceus thanks to their resistances to Ice, Dragon, and Ghost. The many lower tier Steel-types being brought up to Ubers to fend off the raging onslaught of Dragon-types that overrun the metagame can also easily stop Ice Arceus in its tracks. Not only can Ice Arceus not hit Steel-types as hard, but also it is weak to Steel-type moves. The most dangerous of these for Arceus is Bullet Punch, whose priority allows Pokemon to bypass Arceus's Speed and heavily damage him despite his considerable bulk.</p>

    <p>Earth Power or Flamethrower can be used instead of Recover to make a Calm Mind + 3 Attacks set. Both will give Arceus coverage against Steel-types, but each has its pros and cons. Flamethower gives Arceus the ability to handle Scizor and Forretress, whereas Earth Power allows Arceus to handle Heatran. Earth Power is a reliable attack regardless of weather, whereas Flamethrower is hindered greatly by rain. If you choose to use Calm Mind + 3 attacks with Kyogre on your team, it is often safer to use Earth Power.</p>

    <p>Substitute or Refresh can be used over Thunder to make a mono-attacking Ice Arceus. With its HP Stat of 406 Arceus makes 101 HP Substitutes, allowing it to take Seismic Toss without the Substitutes being broken. Refresh allows Arceus to get rid of any status and does not cost the 101 HP that Substitute does. Both of these allow you to beat Blissey one-on-one, as they prevent Arceus from being crippled by status as it sets up Calm Mind. While Ice is not the best defensive typing, Arceus's natural bulk and the combination of Calm Mind, Substitute / Refresh, and Recover let it be much harder to KO. Also, Ice is one of the best mono-attacking types you can use, especially in Ubers. When doing this, though, it is more important than ever to be rid of Steel-types because they will wall Arceus completely.</p>

    [Other Options]

    <p>Ice Beam can replace Judgment. While this change reduces the damage output, it does give Arceus a 10% chance to freeze the opponent's Pokemon in any weather but sun. Even though the damage change seems minimal, Judgment is still recommended over Ice Beam because it has a higher chance of obtaining some important OHKOs and 2HKOs. For example, Judgment gives Arceus a ~30% higher chance to OHKO Latias and Giratina after 1 Calm Mind (factoring Stealth Rock damage), while also guaranteeing a OHKO on Latios after 1 Calm Mind without Stealth Rock damage. Judgment also allows Arceus to 2HKO Wobbuffet ~98.9% of the time after Stealth Rock, as well as giving Arceus a ~25% chance to 2HKO without Stealth Rock, something Ice Beam cannot do. While the 10% chance to freeze is tempting, Judgment is still recommended as Arceus's primary choice.</p>

    [Checks and Counters]

    <p>Without Flamethrower or Earth Power, Ice Arceus is easily countered by Steel-type Pokemon. There are some Steel-type Pokemon that can counter Arceus even when it runs Flamethrower or Earth Power. Thanks to Choice Scarf Jirachi's Speed, it can easily outrun Arceus and hit it with Iron Head. While Iron Head is a 3HKO (~0.06% of a 2HKO) without Stealth Rock, Iron Head can cause Arceus to flinch and Arceus can only OHKO with Flamethrower in the sun. If Arceus is not running Flamethrower, all Uber Scizor sets are at best 2HKOed by +1 Thunder, while the Choice Band, Swords Dance, and Trapper sets can all 2HKO Arceus with Bullet Punch. Without Earth Power all, Heatran sets walk right over Arceus, taking anything Arceus can throw at it and retaliating with Flamethrower. Without Flamethrower, Bronzong can take Judgment and Thunder, while being immune to Earth Power and being able to 2HKO with Gyro Ball. Other than Steel-types though, there are only a few Pokemon that give Ice Arceus trouble. Arceus is only able to beat Ho-Oh in the rain. In any other weather Ho-Oh can do 90.1% - 106.4% to Arceus with Sacred Fire, while Arceus has no reliable move to hit back with. In the rain however, Sacred Fire only does 49.5% - 58.4% and Arceus can 2HKO with Thunder. Without Substitute, Blissey can outstall Arceus with Toxic and Wish / Softboiled.</p>
  2. Fireburn

    Fireburn BARN ALL
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    -There is no real reason to slash Ice Beam since the Freeze chance isn't even that good. The extra BP will always be better. Deslash it.

    -Jirachi is a counter. If its Scarf it will Iron Head you do death and if its support it will paralyze you and THEN Iron Head you to death.

    -Scizor is also a counter b/c of Bullet Punch.

    -Metagross is a counter if you lack Earth Power.

    -Tyranitar is a counter b/c of SS boosted bulk and STAB Stone Edge.

    -At least mention Flamethrower in AC for Forretress/Scizor ownage abilities and to kill Jirachi and Metagross in sun.

    -IDk about this but maybe mention Abomasnow as a teammate for Hail + Blizzard abuse?

    Other than that looks v. good. Fix these things and I'll approve.

    EDIT- OKAY WE ARE GOOD.

    [​IMG]
  3. Darkmalice

    Darkmalice Like a facepalm, but better
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    Blizzard doesn't deserve a slash. Abomasnow is rare, and even with him, Kyogre and Groudon are rampant enough to quickly nulfill Hail; Kyogre is a very good switch-in to Blizzard given that you're likely to be using Earth Power in place of Thunder when using Blizzard. Also, 8 PP sucks when Pressure is everywhere.
  4. Ditto

    Ditto /me huggles
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    I was told to put Blizzard in by Fireburn on IRC
  5. Fireburn

    Fireburn BARN ALL
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    Yeah it may not need a slash but it at least should be mentioned in AC.
  6. Great Sage

    Great Sage

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    Substitute should be mentioned in Additional Comments because Ice is a fairly good mono-attacking type. It lets you beat Blissey and gives you some protection (remember, even though it's Ice, Arceus is still very bulky) in general, in exchange for not beating Steels not named Dialga as easily. Other than that, looks good.

    QC APPROVED (2/3)
  7. giggity69

    giggity69

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    T-spikes should be mentioned in the teammates section to help beat blissey.
  8. bojangles

    bojangles IF YOU TRULY BELIEVE,
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    In my opinion, Flamethrower is fine in just AC, it doesn't need to be slashed in. Furthermore, I think a spinner is a bit more than "recommended" because you essentially are forced to Recover whenever you switch in.

    QC Approved 3/3
  9. jc104

    jc104 Humblest person ever
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    GP Check 1.

    Changes are in bold and removals in red.

    And please work on the overview; it really isn't verbose or dramatic enough.
  10. Ditto

    Ditto /me huggles
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    Changes added. Thank you.
  11. Jibaku

    Jibaku Not taking FS requests atm.
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    This is inconsistent. The first calc does more than double the damage than the second one. The first calc incorporates Life Orb, and the second calc is completely off (if you disclude Life Orb it does less than 37.4%)
  12. Draco Zephyr

    Draco Zephyr

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    Grammar-Prose Check 2/2:
    additions in bold
    removals in red
    comments in green
    Thus ends the GP phase of the frigid version of the creator. While most of my edits were prose-related, I found one recurring error: you have tendency to misuse "you." For example:
    Here, the second example is correct. You, as the Arceus user, are not running Flamethrower. Arceus is running Flamethrower. Another example:
    Heatran is not walking over you, the Arceus user. Heatran is walking all over poor Arceus.

    Apart from the aforementioned blip, I found this analysis of the frigid creator coldly satisfying. Once my edits are implemented, I'll stamp this and you can PM a mod to have this uploaded.

    EDIT: Changes made, so:

    [​IMG]
  13. Ditto

    Ditto /me huggles
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    Thank you! Changes made!
  14. ΩDonut

    ΩDonut don't glaze me bro
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    Unless there are damage calcs showing that the extra 5 BP on Judgment scores some crucial KOs over Ice Beam, it is not worth giving up the 10% chance of tipping the battle in your favor.
  15. Ditto

    Ditto /me huggles
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    There has been a good amount of discussion about this and it was decided that Ice Beam (which I originally had slashed in) should be removed.
  16. ΩDonut

    ΩDonut don't glaze me bro
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    Well then, perhaps you can put in a brief recap of the logic behind the decision for those of us not privy to your conversations on IRC.

    So far the only points against Ice Beam are:

    - the 5 less BP misses out on some KOs, which is a dubious claim unless there are damage calcs to back it up
    - Judgment gives your opponent one less opportunity to bitch about hax

    Unless the first one is true, there is no reason to not make Ice Beam the main option on this set.
  17. Jibaku

    Jibaku Not taking FS requests atm.
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    ice beam's chance of freezing can also be negated by the sun, whereas the power boost from Judgment will always be there. Furthermore, Judgment has a moderate chance of knocking out wobbuffet in 2 shots after CM, SR damage, and Leftovers recovery
  18. Ditto

    Ditto /me huggles
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    It also guarantees a OHKO on Latios without SR and greater increases the chance of a OHKO on Latias/Giratina after SR if Arceus has 1 CM.
  19. umbarsc

    umbarsc

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    At least slash in Ice Beam. It's only 5% less powerful, which isn't too bad. In exchange, you get a 10% chance to put a Pokemon out of commission entirely (maybe more than one, I can't remember if Freeze Clause has been struck down/will be struck down for SB2). Let's try some of these calcs:

    +1 vs. 4/0 Latios:
    J: 101.3% - 119.2%
    IB: 95.4% - 113.2%

    No difference, both guarantee OHKO with SR or 5% prior damage.

    +1 vs. 112/0 Latias:
    J: 80.2% - 94.8%
    IB: 76.6% - 90%

    +1 vs. 248/12 Giratina:
    J: 82.7% - 97.8%
    IB: 78.7% - 93%

    This is a little more notable, but it's not very significant, just a better chance of OHKOing them if they've only switched into SR once the entire match. And even if they survive, what are they going to do in return? Will-O-Wisp I guess, but that's it really.

    Against Wobbuffet, it's the same story. You're doing about 2.5% more, so you have a better chance if Wobbuffet is switching in with an ideal situation. However, with a tiny amount of amount of prior damage, it's irrelevant, and you get the cool 19% chance to freeze Wobb if you don't quite get the 2HKO.

    So yeah, I'm entirely in favor of slashing Ice Beam, maybe not as the main slash if QC is really opposed. But right now it's not even mentioned once in the analysis, which needs to fixed right away.
  20. firecape

    firecape This is the end...
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    This was already discussed heavily on IRC. The decision was made, and it is what it is. This analysis is already done, and would be in the process of uploading if we had a system for it. However, that is still in the works. (for just Arceus I mean)
  21. supermarth64

    supermarth64 Here I stand in the light of day
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    But the fact that it doesn't even get a MENTION in the entire analysis leaves it to be questioned. Some people may want the extra PP and are willing to sacrifice that small bit of power for that and the extra freeze chance. At least OC it.
  22. Rising_Dusk

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    To be fair, it really should be AC material in the CM set. It doesn't have to be slashed if QC doesn't want it to be, but it definitely deserves a mention for its merits in the set itself. I'm also generally opposed to the set name "The Cold Creator". It's not really classy or catchy; I think it should just be "Calm Mind".
  23. firecape

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    This. I honestly though it had a mention in AC, sorry, I guess I didn't skim hard enough ;). Yes, the ~10% power loss (its not 5% due to plate boost...I forget what it is exactly atm, I'm tired) does push Judgment to be the main option, as it needs all the power it can get; however, Ice Beam definitely deserves AC for its 10% freeze chance and more PP.
  24. umbarsc

    umbarsc

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    It's still 5% because the boost effects both moves proportionally.

    One thing that hasn't come up yet (but probably did during those extensive IRC chats on the subject) is that the Ice Beam freeze chance becomes really important in CM wars against other Arceus (types like Ghost, Bug, and Electric). Once you're at a certain point, it essentially becomes a race to see who can crit first (6.25% chance with each attack). Ice Beam gives you a very important edge against other Arceus because instead of a 6.25% chance of winning each round, you now have a 16.25% chance (or 15.625% chance I guess) of winning with each attack, which is more than twice your opponent. To me, that seems like a pretty fair trade-off in exchange for 5% less power. Maybe not as the primary option, but it definitely needs to be mentioned.
  25. Wild Eep

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    Both Judgment and Ice Beam are 16 PP. Ice Beam is the odd move out of the base 95s with respect to PP.

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