Gen 1 Lapras vs. Chansey: parafusion calcs.

#1
So I've seen a lot of arguing over exactly how likely it is for Lapras to beat Thunderbolt Chansey with its vaunted parafusion. I thought this was pretty silly, since the actual probability is an undisputable fact. So I figured I'd run the numbers myself and see what popped out.

Now I realise why nobody did this before.

As Smogon hasn't implemented the spoiler tag, I'm going to just link you to the full calcs here.

Anyway, here's the relevant shit.

Paralysed Chansey vs. healthy Lapras
9.4% Lapras wins without being paralysed.
17.7% Lapras wins but is paralysed.
73.0% Chansey wins.

Chansey switching into Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
19.8% Lapras wins without being paralysed.
17.6% Lapras wins but is paralysed.
62.6% Chansey wins.

Paralysed Chansey vs. paralysed Lapras
13.3% Lapras wins.
86.7% Chansey wins.

Chansey switching into paralysed Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
19.8% Lapras wins.
80.2% Chansey wins.

Honestly, Lapras does better than I thought (my initial estimate was "between 2 and 3 freeze chances" ie 17-25%). Oh well, now we know.

m9m out.
 
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#3
a) I explained, if you had bothered to follow my link, why I don't think it's optimal for Lapras to Rest. Confuse Ray is temporary and Thunderbolt is a near-guaranteed 3HKO, so Lapras is unlikely to make actual headway.
b) You are welcome to run those calcs yourself, if mine are so awfully inadequate.
 

Pocket

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#4
Yea Lapras aint beating Chansey without major parafusion hax. This is why I actually like Sing and Hyper Beam on Lapras to have a better shot at taking down Chansey rather than relying on lucky rolls.
 
#5
Yea Lapras aint beating Chansey without major parafusion hax. This is why I actually like Sing and Hyper Beam on Lapras to have a better shot at taking down Chansey rather than relying on lucky rolls.
The calcs for Body Slam/Hyper Beam Lapras vs. Chansey are much simpler than these (almost an order of magnitude). I might have a go at them in a bit.
 

Rotosect

Banned deucer.
#6
a) I explained, if you had bothered to follow my link, why I don't think it's optimal for Lapras to Rest. Confuse Ray is temporary and Thunderbolt is a near-guaranteed 3HKO, so Lapras is unlikely to make actual headway.
b) You are welcome to run those calcs yourself, if mine are so awfully inadequate.
Your calcs are inadequate because it makes no sense for Lapras to stay in against Chansey if it's not running Rest. With that it can at least attempt to PP stall Chansey.
 
#7
Your calcs are inadequate because it makes no sense for Lapras to stay in against Chansey if it's not running Rest. With that it can at least attempt to PP stall Chansey.
...You do know that the entire reason almost every Lapras set runs Confuse Ray is so it can, in fact, stay in against Chansey? And that the chance of successfully PP-stalling a paralysed opponent with a 3HKO on you and 24 PP is miniscule?

I'm kinda bemused that you're so confident in saying something so baldly ridiculous.
 
#8
1) The calcs are very interesting, thank you.
2) Rotosect: As m9m says, rest vs Chansey is stupid if it has Thunderbolt, as it's a 3HKO, not including CHs. If you're not convinced then do the calculations yourself. :)
3) Honestly the main point of Lapras is not to beat Chansey 1v1 (whether you have Confuse Ray/Rest or not), it's t damage it enough to KO it with something else, or get a free switch in as it Softboils.

Conclusion: The best way to beat Chansey with Lapras is a surprise sing! :D
 
#10
At how much health do these calcs assume that Chansey starts favoring Softboiled over Thunderbolt?
In the full write-up I linked to:

I said:
- Assumption: Chansey uses Thunderbolt if it will OHKO guaranteed, or if it is at full health and Lapras is paralysed, or if it is hit once and not confused and Lapras is paralysed; it uses Thunder Wave if it is at full health and Lapras is not paralysed, or if it is hit once and not confused and Lapras is not paralysed; otherwise, it uses Softboiled.
- Justification: Basic first-approximation. You could refine it recursively by looking at the states where Thunderbolt could OHKO, and checking whether Thunderbolt or Softboiled would have a greater chance to win, or by looking at the states where Lapras isn't paralysed and checking whether Thunder Wave or Softboiled would have a greater chance to win, but I've had enough maths for now.
 
#11
http://www.rby2k10.proboards.com/post/14844/thread <-- The calcs for Hyper Beam Lapras.


Paralysed Chansey vs. Hyper Beam Lapras
4.4% Lapras wins without being paralysed
19.8% Lapras wins but is paralysed
75.8% Chansey wins

Chansey switching into Hyper Beam Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
15.1% Lapras wins without being paralysed
17.6% Lapras wins but is paralysed
67.3% Chansey wins

Paralysed Chansey vs. paralysed Hyper Beam Lapras
14.5% Lapras wins
85.5% Chansey wins

Chansey switching into paralysed Hyper Beam Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
19.3% Lapras wins
80.7% Chansey wins

Chansey at 70-81% switching into Hyper Beam Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
36.8% Lapras wins without being paralysed
13.1% Lapras wins but is paralysed
50.1% Chansey wins

Chansey at 45-60% switching into Hyper Beam Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
93.5% Lapras wins without being paralysed
1.4% Lapras wins but is paralysed
5.2% Chansey wins


Notes:

- When Lapras is unparalysed and Chansey's at high health, Confuse Ray is slightly better.
- When Chansey is brought into KO range from Hyper Beam, Hyper Beam is obviously better.
- When Lapras is paralysed, Hyper Beam is slightly better than Confuse Ray.