Metagame Little Cup Ultra Sun and Moon - Speculation Thread [SPOILERS]

#1
With Ultra Sun and Moon about to drop, we got just about all the information we could ask for in just a few hours. This thread will be for discussing what we've found, what all of the changes will have on our metagame, and some fun and unique sets that we have to look forward to.

https://pastebin.com/e65awjRH = Egg Moves for all pokemon

https://pastebin.com/2ndDSgbJ = List of tutor moves

https://pastebin.com/4Ed04RB2 = List of all Pokemon, with the numbers corresponding to the tutor move.

You can find out if a specific Pokemon learns a move by checking the tutor move number on the second list and then finding the Pokemon on the third list, then seeing if the number is listed.


Some personal Pokemon that I'm excited about are Mudbray and Aipom, but I'll leave that part to you guys to make up some fun stuff.
 
#2
The only new LC viable mon, Poipole, seems pretty good. It's not as powerfully offensively as stuff like Magby or Elekid, but it has extremely decent and well rounded stats for an LC mon, and beast boost, so who knows. Could be a good late game cleaner.
 
Likes: PD
#3
I'm very excited for the number of defog users that have been thrown into the mix, these including Cottonee, Torchic, Snivy and others. This is especially interesting considering the long awaited addition of SR Mudbray and a new web setter in Dewpider. I'm curious to see how hazards will work out in this meta :)
 
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#5
I can't imagine who isn't hyped for the arrival of Autotomize Trubbish, T-spikes Shelmet, and Confuse Ray Finneon which definitely makes up for the loss of its niche when everybody gets defog.

Meanwhile mini-Jirachi finally descends on us LC mortals in the form of Headbutt Deerling - who with its 18 speed tier, access to Thunder Wave, and 60% flinch chance with Serene Grace is sure to cause literally everyone to scream in anger. With Jump Kick to defeat Steel-types and Grass STAB to take out the rocks, this truly seems like the meta for the return of our savior Honedge.

Also Abra gets Psychic Terrain by egg now so I fully expect to see Z-Psychic Terrain (+1 SpA and sets the terrain) pop up at least once.

+1 240 SpA Abra Psychic vs. 0 HP / 236 SpD Munchlax in Psychic Terrain: 25-31 (83.3 - 103.3%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
 
#6
My thoughts go to some Pokémon that got interesting aditions. First, let's start with Aipom.

Aipom got a buff after the revealing of it getting Tail Slap, which is the best STAB multi-hit attacks that has now, relegating Fury Swipes to none. Why do I say this? Well, the higher Base Power makes an evident difference in calculations, making it be able to KO bulky threats such as Shellder without Defense drops, bulky Mienfoo, Timburr and Spritzee after rocks. Adding this fact to the coverage it can carry (which includes options such as Seed Bomb, Knock Off, U-turn, Fire Punch and Brick Break, to name a few), I can expect it to be a threat to be taken in mind while teambuilding, meaning it would easily rise on the VRs.

Proof:

196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Tail Slap (5 hits) vs. 212 HP / 196+ Def Eviolite Spritzee: 20-25 (74 - 92.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Possible damage amounts: (4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5)

196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Tail Slap (5 hits) vs. 0 HP / 196 Def Eviolite Mienfoo: 20-25 (95.2 - 119%) -- approx. 6.3% chance to OHKO

196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Tail Slap (5 hits) vs. 0 HP / 156 Def Eviolite Timburr: 20-25 (83.3 - 104.1%) -- approx. 6.3% chance to OHKO

196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Tail Slap (5 hits) vs. 36 HP / 36+ Def Eviolite Shellder: 20-25 (100 - 125%) -- guaranteed OHKO


And for last, Web users.

Cutiefly was banned because of its movepool containing Quiver dance and Baton Pass, making it the main reason of its ban, as well as sweeping by itself with some boosts, a really good typing, STABs, coverage and Speed to pull it off. Well, the addition of Sticky Webs means that Cutiefly can be now a really useful setter, running a set of Sticky Web/Quiver Dance/Baton Pass/Moonblast to take advantage of its presence on the game. Well, it doesn't matter pretty much, since it's one more reason about why it should be banned.

Swirlix got it too, but well, it seems like a niche option for it, since the best sets are Belly Drum and Calm Mind + 3 attacks. The addition is interesting, though. Also, it's banned, so, again, what I said about Cutiefly.
 
#7
List of notable new moves for LC mons, if im missing something correct me
Mudbray - Stealth Rock
Snivy - Defog
Aipom - Tail Slap
Dewpider - Sticky Webs
Spritzee - Nasty Plot
Mareanie - Knock Off, Gunk Shot
Alolan Grimer - Giga Drain, Fire Punch
Shellder - Liquidation
Abra - Psychic Terrain
Ponyta - High Horsepower
Shelmet - Toxic Spikes
Pikipek - Knock Off
Sandygast - Stealth Rock
Cottonee - Defog
Alolan Sandshrew - Knock Off, Stealth Rock
Torchic - Defog
Deerling - Headbutt

Aipom having Tail Slap is just dumb, SR Mudbray is cool, Snivy getting Defog is nice but i think ppl are overhyping it a bit. Dewpider and Spritzee are very cool as well. Marenie having knock is an ok option but it has too much of a 4MSS already. Other things just got gimmicky stuff or are already bad, or small improvements like shellder and pikipek.
 
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#8
My thoughts go to some Pokémon that got interesting aditions. First, let's start with Aipom.

Aipom got a buff after the revealing of it getting Tail Slap, which is the best STAB multi-hit attacks that has now, relegating Fury Swipes to none. Why do I say this? Well, the higher Base Power makes an evident difference in calculations, making it be able to KO bulky threats such as Shellder without Defense drops, bulky Mienfoo, Timburr and Spritzee after rocks. Adding this fact to the coverage it can carry (which includes options such as Seed Bomb, Knock Off, U-turn, Fire Punch and Brick Break, to name a few), I can expect it to be a threat to be taken in mind while teambuilding, meaning it would easily rise on the VRs.

Proof:

196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Tail Slap (5 hits) vs. 212 HP / 196+ Def Eviolite Spritzee: 20-25 (74 - 92.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Possible damage amounts: (4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5)

196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Tail Slap (5 hits) vs. 0 HP / 196 Def Eviolite Mienfoo: 20-25 (95.2 - 119%) -- approx. 6.3% chance to OHKO

196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Tail Slap (5 hits) vs. 0 HP / 156 Def Eviolite Timburr: 20-25 (83.3 - 104.1%) -- approx. 6.3% chance to OHKO

196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Tail Slap (5 hits) vs. 36 HP / 36+ Def Eviolite Shellder: 20-25 (100 - 125%) -- guaranteed OHKO


And for last, Web users.

Cutiefly was banned because of its movepool containing Quiver dance and Baton Pass, making it the main reason of its ban, as well as sweeping by itself with some boosts, a really good typing, STABs, coverage and Speed to pull it off. Well, the addition of Sticky Webs means that Cutiefly can be now a really useful setter, running a set of Sticky Web/Quiver Dance/Baton Pass/Moonblast to take advantage of its presence on the game. Well, it doesn't matter pretty much, since it's one more reason about why it should be banned.

Swirlix got it too, but well, it seems like a niche option for it, since the best sets are Belly Drum and Calm Mind + 3 attacks. The addition is interesting, though. Also, it's banned, so, again, what I said about Cutiefly.
I like how you only talked about the new web users that are banned and not Dewpider :P
 
#9
Dewpider is gonna be a really good Sticky Web setter. It's got bulk, unlike Surskit, and has impressive offensive presence. I think Dewpider will pretty quickly become the predominant Webs setter in USUM because Surskit is pretty bad and nobody uses Spinarak or Sewaddle because they're bad too. Predicting Dewpider to A-/B+.

Liquidation Shellder is also really nice because now you don't have to worry about missing Razor Shell. Predicting Aipom to A/A- with Tail Slap.

High Horsepower is a really neat move for Ponyta that's not getting discussed a lot. It lets physical Pony hit Rock-types and Chinchou and is generally good coverage with Flare Blitz. It's almost definitely a better option than Wild Charge or Toxic on bulky Pony unless you really don't like Waters. Offensive physical Pony (Life Orb Flare Blitz + High Horsepower + Flame Charge + Wild Charge / Quick Attack / Mourning Son) looks like it'll be able to beat a lot of the current metagame with a little chip damage:
236 Atk Life Orb Ponyta High Horsepower vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Onix: 13-16 (65 - 80%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Possible damage amounts: (13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 16)
236 Atk Life Orb Ponyta Flare Blitz vs. 0 HP / 156 Def Eviolite Timburr: 16-19 (66.6 - 79.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Possible damage amounts: (16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 19)
236 Atk Life Orb Ponyta Wild Charge vs. 36 HP / 36+ Def Eviolite Shellder: 13-16 (65 - 80%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Possible damage amounts: (13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 16)
236 Atk Life Orb Ponyta High Horsepower vs. 76 HP / 212+ Def Chinchou: 23-29 (92 - 116%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO, guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
Possible damage amounts: (23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 29)
236 Atk Life Orb Ponyta Wild Charge vs. 0 HP / 156 Def Eviolite Staryu: 16-21 (84.2 - 110.5%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO, 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
Possible damage amounts: (16, 16, 16, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 21)
236 Atk Life Orb Ponyta Wild Charge vs. 116 HP / 156 Def Eviolite Staryu: 16-21 (76.1 - 100%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (16, 16, 16, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 21)
Fire Punch is a really nice tech for Alolan Grimer because it doesn't have to worry about missing vs. Pawniard. The calcs for 36 SpA Fire Blast and 196+ Atk Fire Punch vs. standard Eviolite Pawniard are exactly the same:
36 SpA Grimer-Alola Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 116 SpD Eviolite Pawniard: 10-14 (47.6 - 66.6%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO
Possible damage amounts: (10, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 14)
196+ Atk Grimer-Alola Fire Punch vs. 0 HP / 36 Def Eviolite Pawniard: 10-14 (47.6 - 66.6%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO
Possible damage amounts: (10, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 14)
I'm pretty excited for USUM, it looks like it'll affect a lot of LC Pokemon (compared to ORAS, which buffed Gothita, Snivy, and Pancham and that's basically it).

Make sure to like this post or I'll go back to making shitposts because they get more likes, and likes make me feel better about spending too much time on an internet Pokemon forum.
 
#10
Made a metagame post without seeing this thread :pirate:

Defog Snivy, Rocks Mudbray, and Webs Dewpider are the obvious standouts to me. Mudbray with Stealth Rock allows it to be more of a glue pokemon rather than an awkward ass (Literally). Snivy getting defog to me is HUGE. Not only does this make webs much worse/harder to use but also Snivy switches in on common stealth rock users rn such as Onix, and Kabuto. Fire Punch Grimer is cool making Pawniard no longer an answer and agree with Infamy about High Horsepower Ponyta being a super cool option but for bulky pony over the LO flames he said. Tail Slap Aipom is also gonna be crazy ofc.

In my opinion Bird spam is going to thrive this meta. Mudbray has the potential to veer people away from Rocks setters such as Onix, Kabuto, and Pawniard (Granted Bird Spam should always have answers/baits for these of course). This as well as the fact of potential viable double hazard removal in Staryu/+Snivy Defog Snivy in particular working extremely well with pokemon like Doduo and Vullaby removing rocks and being an excellent Rock type check. Flying types already have very little switch ins but if Mudbray becomes a popular rocker (as I imagine it will as it 1v1s every current viable rock setter) Those bird switch ins could potentially become even less.
 
#11
Well, we know for sure the little poison buddy isn't going to be in LC, because there's only one and it's not obtainable at level 5 nor can it be bred. But here's a couple of sets that I don't really see people talking about that really deserve the hype.


Cottonee @ Eviolite
Ability: Prankster
Level: 5
EVs: 36 HP / 120 Def / 64 SpA / 40 SpD / 232 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 1 Atk / 30 Def / 30 SpA / 30 SpD / 30 Spe
- Defog
- Dazzling Gleam
- Hidden Power [Fighting]
- Memento/Encore/Tailwind/literally anything

Cottonee getting a revival in the form of Defog has been seriously ignored by way too many people. This is a priority Defogger that can also support it's team in a load of crazy ways. With this set, it doesn't have to fear things like Pawniard switching in or Vullaby coming in to block defog. It can come in on rock setters and scare them with the potential Encore, or provide the team with Memento support. Cottonee's versatility and incredible movepool just got a massive buff in the form of hazard removal and it should be getting some massive attention.


Dewpider @ Eviolite
Ability: Water Bubble
Level: 5
EVs: 52 HP / 196 Atk / 20 Def / 20 SpD / 220 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Sticky Web
- Liquidation
- Leech Life
- Substitute

Dewpider lucked out with Sticky Web, as not only did it gain the ability to use the move, but it also took the best of both Surskit and Spinarak and put it into what I believe our best web setter will be. Dewpider beats Snivy in a 1v1. Obviously this set isn't completely optimized, but the Dew being able to hold it's own against the premier Webs counter our tier currently has (who only got better with Defog), makes it a contender for the second biggest buff. (Aipom being the biggest).
 

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#12
Just thought I'd nerd out over Aipom for a moment.

As someone who knows the damage formula pretty darn well, I can tell you the Tail Slap damage difference is going to be HUGE for anything with a Defense stat significantly higher than Aipom's attack. I know some rolls, like vs. Mienfoo, won't be huge, but on a Pokemon like Spritzee, with a 24 Defense stat (after Eviolite) compared to Aipom's standard 15 attack, take a look at this:

The simplified version of the damage formula I'll be looking at in this scenario is the following:
Math.floor(4*(Base Power)*(Attack/Defense)*(1/50)) + 2
* (Random) * (STAB boost) * (Life Orb Boost)

Let's start by looking at the first part. If you aren't familiar with the Math.floor function, it just rounds down to the nearest integer. With an 18 power attack (Fury Swipes), we see the following...
4*18 = 72
When Defense is significantly higher than attack (like vs Spritzee), Attack/Defense will be a small fraction, which will bring the value down below 50.
72*(15/24) = 48
Then, Math.floor(48/50) = 0 (because it is less than 1 and rounds down).
Add 2 and the final value before modifiers is 2.
The random factor is then applied, which gives 16 possible rolls by multiplying 2 by a number between 0.85 and 1 and then rounding down. This leaves 15 possible rolls of 1 and one roll of 2 (the super roll).
Each of the rolls is then multiplied by 1.5 for STAB and 4/3 for Life Orb, rounding down after each. For the 15 rolls of 1, the value doesn't change since 1*1.5 rounds down to 1 and 1*(4/3) rounds down to 1. The super roll goes to 4, because 2*1.5 is 3 and 3*4/3 is 4. Thus the rolls for Fury Swipes vs Spritzee are [1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,4].

But let's look at Tail Slap:
4*25 = 100
Almost no LC Pokemon hits 30 defense. Thus, Attack/Defense will be a value between .5 and 1, so the multiplication will end up with a value between 50 and 100. In this case, vs spritzee...
100*(15/24) = 62.5
When this value is taken over 50 and floored, it is 1.
After 2 is added, the base value is 3.

Going through the same motions, 15 of the rolls are equal to 2 and 1 will be equal to 3.
The difference between 1 and 2 damage is HUGE because STAB is no longer floored out. Applying the STAB modifier, 15 rolls go to 3 and one goes to 4 (3*1.5 floored is 4). After Life Orb, 15 rolls go to 4 and 1 goes to 5. Thus the rolls vs Spritzee are:
[4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,5]


Basically, because of how damage is floored, the 7 base power difference results in a 4x higher damage output vs. any Pokemon with over 21 Defense (or above 15 Defense with Eviolite).

Expect to see a lot of the monkey in the next little while.
 
#14
I think aipom will be very common with the huge buff in tail slap. With lo, being able to do 20 damage min to neutral mons with upto 18 def and evio is pretty ridiculous, as it can just rip through teams pretty easily and it has the coverage options to remove the few 'checks' it has. Defensively, only mudbray actually checks it while other mons like ferro and pawn and wa rockers can be checks depending on moveset but checking relies on winning 50/50s or praying it lacks that coverage move but aipoms coverage is so good with stuff like fire punch and brick break that it can easily be customised to take out whatever the team needs gone. It does suffer from 4mss since it wants fake, slap, knock, seed, fp, brick break, u-turn etc but switching into this mon, on paper, seems to be extremely difficult with this buff. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets suspected soon since it seems very hard to defensively check on paper.

Avs posted some calcs for tail slap and nineage explained damage rolls but, in terms of coverage:

196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Fire Punch vs. 84 HP / 108+ Def Eviolite Ferroseed: 21-26 (95.4 - 118.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
Possible damage amounts: (21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 26)
196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Brick Break vs. 0 HP / 36 Def Eviolite Pawniard: 26-31 (123.8 - 147.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 31)
196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Seed Bomb vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Onix: 21-26 (105 - 130%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 26)
196 Atk Life Orb Aipom Seed Bomb vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Onix: 21-26 (105 - 130%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 26)


Overall, it looks like switching in/defensively checking this monster would be a game of 50/50s or praying they lack the right coverage move. I feel like dig might become super necessary for teams too, in order to reliably revenge and remove it from play.
I feel like lo aipom + dig + fight check might become a common core, since dig limits aipom kill count to 1 and aipom looks to wreck almost every mon.