Sorry to interject, but tried to work out some minimum values for the number of battles needed to find an estimate for the usage percentage at various confidence levels.

Assumptions (open)
Assumptions (close)

1. Usage stats around 3.41% are most important for tiering

2. Margin of error of 0.1% is acceptable

3. Underlying distribution is large enough to be approximately normal

4. Confidence level Z values are << n

Methods (open)
Methods (close)

· Modifying confidence interval for population proportion; most important part of the formula is diff. between upper and lower bounds

· Choosing population proportion of interest to be p=0.0341

· Varying confidence levels of 90% (z*= 1.645), 95% (z*=1.96), and 99% (z*=2.575)

Equations (open)
Equations (close)

Mistaken Equations (open)
Mistaken Equations (close)

Variable definitions (open)
Variable definitions (close)

z*= z-critical value for various confidence intervals (relates to area on normal distribution, here its 90% (z*= 1.645), 95% (z*=1.96), and 99% (z*=2.575))

p = sample proportion (as we are most about usage near drop points, going to set it to 3.41% usage, or p = 0.0341)

Basically wanted to figure out a confidence interval for the true population proportion, so messed with the formula a bit.

mistakes made (open)
mistakes made (close)

Did a couple of numerical calculations, and found the following N values for Confidence intervals of 90%, 95%, and 99% respectively (sorry, unsure how to make a table).

Conf. Level N

90% 912

95% 126500

99% 218500

These numbers are only approximate, and could vary a bit, but should give a vague idea of the number of battles needed to achieve accuracy within 0.1% and the confidence we can put into those values.

Edit: It seems that there was a mistake or two in the equations I was using that was only apparent at "low" N. I am currently redoing stats and will update the post once done.

There's a large chance that I could have gotten some of my working wrong, so if anyone more knowledgeable in statistics could check my work, that would be wonderful. Also, if anyone knows how to properly format the Conf. Level / Min. Battles into a table, could you please PM me?