NOC Matrix 12 NOC - Game Over, Mafia Wins

[Yeti]

LMAO that oops didnt mean to

 

[Hawkie]

I feel like I want to scum read jalmont but I don't, I think he just seemed scummy because he thinks I'm scum

I feel like I want to town read blazade but I don't, getting town read feels good maaan!
Asek Josh Hawkie

I think we should take advantage of the lack of majority and start talking about who we want to lynch now, make sure there's no late bs town wagons or a scum stealth vote into no lynch. Who are you guys thinking atm?

 

[Hawkie]

ok i am approx 1,000,000% sure texas is scum so im going to sleep this has been a rollercoaster but i truly believe we're going to win this tmoz love u all Gnight

 

[Fort Colorcastle]

You're saying losing two Townies would be worth it. I'd rather lose just one, which is why I acted.

actually, given our odds of hitting 1 scum out of 2 scum suspects, I think it would have been worth the gamble.

ID was highly scumread by many people. Getting a free lynch on him was 100% a good deal for town, and shit for scum.
tbh it could've been unbalancing wrt game fairness.


you looked at the numbers and thought that the worst-case-scenario was bad for town
no duh
you didn't actually take into account the odds of the worst-case-scenario happening what with the weighting that would come about from the facts that 1) we'd be lynching a scumspect and 2) ID was a scumspect


ugh idk about texas
um
um
um
um
um
um
um

sheep or no sheep?
w.e I'll stay for now I guess. Knights is stil la scumread from me. i stg if this goes back to what happened last time.....
I sure wish moody had hinted at who he'd be targeting.

 

[Fort Colorcastle]

actually who was moody's top scum suspect after ID eod yesterday?
they're probably town, IF moody went for a roleblock. which, having claimed that day, he definitely should have.

 

[Panic Station]

Sorry, guys, I gotta stick a pin in this. It's 1am now and I'm only to page 100.

 

[Yeti]

Yeah pretty much if it's in Fort/Yeti/Texas/Knights in that order of confidence
I don't see how Texas reached the conclusion of Id being my teammate from the votecounts, it makes sense to think that imo but my post didn't seem to really put that in evidence ?
Day 1 being TvTvT is what I've assumed since d2 and it hasn't worked out so well for me, now's the time to know for sure imo
Dislike the Yeti reaction to a 2 vote wagon in the last 2 pages
+
I'd be ok to lynch Fort by the way but lynching one of the Haruno voters does less than lynching the Ullar slot to settle the matter of "did scum save a teammate there" despite me liking what I've seen from Yeti up til today

seem to be his last posts on anyone's alliance

he literally couldnt have roleblocked texas ln so texas can in no way be excluded

its either fort or me he went on ln

 

[Yeti]

knights just post what u have

 

[Empoof]

Sorry, guys, I gotta stick a pin in this. It's 1am now and I'm only to page 100.

lots of time, don't fret

i'm zzing

 

[Panic Station]

I won't be out of town the whole day tomorrow, so I should be able to get it up before deadline.

 

[Panic Station]

knights just post what u have

A Study of D4 Statements about ID in Chronological Order

or

I stayed up past midnight for this

leet was obviously getting lynched at some point before lylo, I'm paying attention to the people who tried redirecting the lynch onto id

of course, id could honestly still be scum, but at that point id feel bad for the scum team

So I think there's only one scum on hitmonleet if that. Probably Knights/Hawkie/Blazade all town. Need to read ID's slots thoughts around this time period

thats Fair but i also pointed out the id wagon WASNT gaining traction as a counterwagon which i thought was very interesting/odd if leet was mafia

i think saying i actively tried to shift the lynch to id is unfounded within my posts but i had an uneasy feeling about the id wagon NOT being at all comparable to leet's IE i wasn't sure why the mafia weren't trying to push him if leet was on their team.. i guess if id is also mafia they wouldn't have

also leet hammered so nobody had time to shift

Fort/Ironicdouble/Knights is where I expect to find at least 1 of the remaining scum

rn my lynchpool is {ligjtwolf, yeti, fcc, id, pancake, knights}


my particular lynch order rn is basically


fcc
yeti
-gap-
light
-gap-
id
pancake
knights

id and pancake are never partners. other than that I think it's pretty interchangeable from memory. knights is worse with poof being ic.

Former Hope/Ironic Double - Don't know what a plurshifter is, would like to know. Tone in 1146 suggests delight in the wagon on Hitmon. D3 has ID pushing the wagon. Tone negates the possibility of the push coming from scum (if you think otherwise, go look up "sadist" in the dictionary and apply some common sense).

you didn't really hard defend, you first said we need to let dat have more discussion before lynching leet and transitioned to preferring an id lynch

im sideying this hard af bc i was on id all day, i didnt transition anything

the start of your day was "lets extend the dat and not quicklynh hitmonleet". that was not in relation to id.

i think scum leet = town ironic double but dont hold me to that 1

ironicdouble im less certain about.

First d2 Hitmonleet voters : Hawkie, Ironicdouble, Knightsofcydonia


First d3 Hitmonleet voters : Texas, Pancake, Ironicdouble, Hawkie (all in #1299 to #1324)

9. Former Hope->Ironic Double

i have lw and id as not-really-scumreads who are on the same level of "need rereading and reconsideration in light of scum!leet conf" but if you put a gun to my head id say pancake was town before id say they are atm

scumlean:
IronicDouble
pancake

fort you believe 1 of id or pancake is scum but not the other? i remember someone saying that

do you think knights fits with one of them as a teammate better than the other or why is he a nullread (thus your most likely last scum) and they're scum?

that was not me
I've had a scumread on ID for a while, but my last read on pancake was null.

It's more a case of "idk about knights" while the other two I have a hard time seeing as town.

uhhhh
I'd be more comfortable with a pancake lynch than an ID lynch honestly
If I were to place knights with one of the two, I'd say pancake probably.

9. Former Hope->Ironic Double


The subs are yet again another grey area (fuck this game). Although they're both from my home turf so it's easier to read them. Fort is pretty much town imo, he's caused quite quite a stir and hasn't been afraid to be vocal around the big town players. ID has been very, well useless tbh! He's trying to play this game like a real-time one and it just doesn't work that way lol. All the complaints about how people do things here and whatever else he's went on about basically feels like big steaming pot of filler to me. That can come from scum or town


LYNCHPOOL Ironic Double > Lightwolf > Asek > Moody

9. Former Hope/Ironic Double

- ironicdouble, texas cloverleaf and blazade are down in scum reads

What everyone should do at this point is define their reads on ID, Pancake, Yeti, and Knights (and everyone else lol but esp those 4) after my flip, or that +me-ID an ID flip.


For me, after an ID town flip, I'd be looking at pancake and knights
after an ID scum flip, I'd be looking at pancake then knights.
if they're all town then I think we lose, but my next guesses would then be (extremely tentatively) either lightwolf or asek for lastscum if exactly one of my top 3 are bad people.

slots i feel are doing jack $#!% today:
lightwolf
ironic double
hawkie
pancake
texas


id and hawkie are both doing absolutely nothing today and both hard pushed leet. makes me wonder if 1 of them was trying to go for towncred by bussing after all.

Reasons not to lynch me:

I claim to be town
I'm town
idk
I'm pretty sure ID is a better wagon anyways esp given his performance today


Lynch IronicDouble anyhow

Something in my gut is telling me it's neither fort or ID right now

but we also have 9 town vs 2 scum rn

IronicDouble (‽) how about that (as in, do that.)

Ironic double can you reiterate your reasons for scumreading hitmonleet starting d2

town id will make me feel a lot worse about pancake and a bit better about yeti and moody (the latter is already a tr, basically just a stronger one)

idk I find it unlikely both wagons were scum, scum death tunnelled other scum with that game position, and id would speak about leet so much

his play is far from stellar tho and he hasn't fly done much else so I could flip id

Scum -> ID, Pancake, -> knights -> asek, lightwolf -> Town

Lynch IronicDouble

His general disheartened approach after we lynched scum yesterday combined with giving useless excuses and making silly comments to people with ":')" attached to the end and literally only comments on pancakes read list just asking for more information rather than giving a proper analysis of it. I feel like it's inexperienced forum scum's attempt to comment on something. PS im on a trip but will be posting from phone

pancake You know ID best out of all of us... would he enjoy or act like he enjoys bussing a scumbuddy?

I'm starting to think I was wrong about ID but it ironically led to a successful lynch anyway

wrong as in

I think my lynchpool today has changed to {yeti, id}

former hope / ironic double

rvs ; asek ; vote 2
rvs ; hawkie ; vote 1
mid d1 ; unvote
mid d2 ; hitmonleet ; vote 2
sod3 ; hitmonleet ; vote 4

analysis:
this slot has done almost nothing all game
this slot has only voted hitmonleet since ironic double subbed in
former hope did not engage in any votes outside of rvs
this slot has been on one winning wagon (1 scum)
this slot has never voted any of the rival town wagons (haruno ullar king)

i have a very strong gut feeling from these votes and the general game that this slot has been attempting to avoid all ties to mislynch wagons and only go on scum. former hope ignores hitmonleet in the votes unlike some of our other spicy wagoners and ironic double comes in and votes hitmonleet only. never voted anyone else.

former hope posts enough scummy-looking crap as town that i think he would try and distinguish himself as towny by not being on any of the d1 mislynch wagons. since scum!fh knows all of haruno, king and ullar are fails he just unvotes and idles through eod1. id subs into a position where hitmonleet has been pushed by presumably 3+ towns by that point so he just hops onto that wagon. id guess the writing is on the wall for the scumteam hitmonleet is gonna bite the dust sooner rather than later. hitmonleet gets to l-2 at the start of d3.

id has done nothing of note himself and his votes show hes been fine to plop onto leet and not interact in any meaningful way beyond that.

i am pretty sure he was hoping to buy towncred by bussing leet so hard after seeing town was already onto him, which matches fh avoiding mislynches.

idk i mean this slot is relatively inactive but this voting pattern just screams "give me towncred i only wagoned the scum!!"

unvote

vote ironic double

i want more pressure onto this slot to contribute something and interact with the game. seeing the vote pattern laid out i really dislike it.

lmao pancake looked shady until i got to ironic double whos slot has Actually done nothing

The thing I said y to yesterday

we don't need this but vote ironicdouble, i should've done this earlier, the evidence from yeti's lynchiso further supports my claims from earlier. KnightsofCydonia i actually don't know clc that well but he's not someone who's known to bus partners, correct.

i think ironic double is lynchbait but i did find former hope scummy so shrugs

also ironicdouble whos parked his vote on leet for 2 days and now doesnt know how to masquerade as town

i think this has fair odds of being accurate

but i do think his vote pattern has the most to dislike about it from anyone else's i've done. and his current contributions are m i a so i feel my vote is better served on him than fort rn regardless.

Yeah. I'm holding out hope ID isn't dead

Though his posting today does not do a good job reinforcing what I thought I knew yesterday

like this post if id is in your top 3

Hawkie, Fort Colorcastle and Yeti like this.

scum -> ID -> pancake ~> asek -> knights ~> lightwolf -> texas => town

note that -> is a biggish shift, ~> is a smaller shift, and => is an almost negligible shift

I expect to find one scum in the poe pile of Ironicdouble/Pancake/Knights/Fort and the last is likely to be among my town reads who pushed Hitmonleet, I'd be surprised if having pushed on Leet simply meant town here. I don't want to lynch Fort today, Knights has some arguably towny activity so I'm hesitant, my vote will probably end up on one of Pancake (whose voting record makes me suspect a d3 bussing after he had avoided the KingvLeet wagons d2) and Ironicdouble (who may have been hard bussing Leet from d2 but him being one of the 3 first voters on him makes me think I might be paranoid here).

jw if you/anyone else feels like if scum did decide to bus hitmonleet, they would've decided AFTER a couple of votes already hit him.

this also goes for ironic double whose slot doesn't vote leet until the d2 subbing.

iirc my vote is already on ID, and unless something happens it's probably going to stay there.

IronicDouble (‽) i dont have showdown access why tge hell r u resigning if tgeres 12 hours left and why arent you trying to solve this game?

we also can't msg you on ps since noc

id is probably town but borderline pl level atp

Cat messed up my sleep a lot last night, planning on classing and sleeping and isoing ID around 2pm PST (depending how long my nap is)


That means if fort/id/knights/light wolf are all town we have a strong chance of losing the game from negligence.

Resigning is scum siding

hi i'!m here what in thr actual fuvk is up with that resignation post from ID i mean it doesnt scream scum but id kms if he managed to get unlynched with it as scum

The ironic double resign is :thinking: then asks for people to msg him on showdown when noc :thonkang: hardcore

pancake you know his meta best I guess is that a town resign or scum?

Considering how this slot has done little all game but push outed scum leet.... I wonder if it's just trying to remain useless before going down which implies scum to me. Also since fh had few opinions on leet then id just sits there hoping to ride the leet wagon town credit gravy train.

Then again this also screeches noob town mislynch. But subs don't usually sub in and go full noob town.

@ everyone asking me to meta read ironicdouble, I don't know him too well besides us being in the mafia room together but giving up when the game goes bad for him is definitely not a meta-defining thing for him, he gets a bit salty sometimes when the game goes to shit and gives up occasionally in both factions... however i'm honestly secondguessing this lynch TBH i don't feel like ironicdouble would just give up RIGHT AFTER HITMONLEET PULLED THE SAME SHIT and was scum.

Former Hope->Ironic Double

#74 Despite my dislike of Hawkie's general playstyle, here we can see the obvious bait being taken by former hope. Like I expect to click the next page button and hope to see at least 3 quick pressure votes please. #81 Same as the above. #93 Nothing new. #106 Post by Moody, what is up with people disregarding FH because they misread him in the past? It seems lazy not to pressure someone just because of that and not actually having their suspicions strengthened or cleared up. Mostly just saying that because I feel frustrated for not being in the game at this point. #145 Backpedal except not, at least would expect a different target before pocketing a suspect to bring up for later use.#222 I have a very big hate pile for people who call out inactives without commenting on the current situation. #397 Oh hey a Former post I don't suspect and can agree with, still for the time he missed out on that's very little to comment on. #775 Welcome Former Hope's replacement, I found the rest of Former's posts uninspiring stuff and also very little stuff, but others idled more for me to consider it telling, and he subbed out so inactivity is also pretty null. Now his replacement here, why say bored townie, like that's a way too specific stuff to say, yes I was bored out of my mind reading some pages of this game, but this just screams like an excuse combined with intentional signaling. Basically I find the sentence too awkward to be not written that way on purpose #787 Again with the wording. I do not disagree that Jalmont plus those two are a hard scum pair to sell, but what is with the would you agree part? Again it doesn't naturally flow and feels like blatant buddying, which could be easily avoided. Unless this is some kind of bait test. #796 First actual showing from ID, this post looks much better than the rest and for a freshish sub look logical and to the lynching point. #1406 What is up with those vague reasons at the start of the post. Also if we are accusing Hitmon of liking posts during the latter part of Day 2 where he wasn't around, why is this only being brought up today if you saw them, not when they would have been extremely relevant and provable. I know according to the statements I couldn't have seen them, but the fact this wasn't brought up rather Hitmon's EoD1 was the only thing echoed, when it could have easily sealed his deal, it seems stupid you bring it up only the next day. Also where is the looking at basically anyone else, sure you want Hitmon lynched and he is scum, but considering this is the day he gets lynched, and I don't recall the former slot ever being on him, this feels opportunistic. #1846 I mean it sorta hits the nail on the head, yeah your focus and unwillingness to spread your vision and post meaningful stuff in general is a reason I think most voters on you have. Also hate the defeatist attitude, especially since it stinks of sarcasm.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I feel early FH got away with too many people being skittish about pressuring him for a misstep I'm fairly annoyed with. Main problem with the FH preevo is that not much positive was done by him between the small negatives I spotted. ID is however a different beast entirely. Most of his posts have wordings that feel unnatural for one reason or another, and he beats out Hawkie for the most opportunistic Hitmon push, especially the parking day 3. Definite Scum Suspect.


FINALE:

Would lynch between Knights, ID and Moody today. Not voting yet since I have no idea what the vote count is.

I think id is forcing us to lynch him, hopefully hell come back cus he's probs vi but there's no way a person who actively avoids the game can be spared

IronicDouble (‽) write a legacy. if youre bored that's something easy enough to do

I think the general consensus is id today. nobody else has got anywhere near as much outright focus.

me personally I think id is probably town and gives next to no info regardless of alignment (pancake is pretty much only relevant alignment that comes to mind). however, his play is rly infuriating and I will take his lynch if necessary

im probably gonna stick on id, im not certain enough on any other slot to try and move off him and mount a campaign this close to deadline [when i am another wagon]

i dislike that he said he would do more stuff once leet flipped and he hasnt done any of it. he def made that post on like d2 or d3 that hed find the rest of the scum or whatever once leet died. and we have seen nothin.

defeatist attitudes suck. i dislike mislynching town off of it though. his play is once again, bad but that does not have to equal scummy.

i would expect he does more as mafia to save himself?? rather than leaving his partner 10-1. but considering his MO since subbing in was parking on leet and saying he'll do more after leet flips, its to be expected as any alignment.

I'll put it this way

if this is all town id is capable of I don't expect much out of scum is so either way eh

I really have to go to sleep now so it shall be Vote IronicDouble

okay

vote id

IronicDouble (‽) if you're town don't just say "well I'm the biggest wagon gg friends <3", come and argue against your lynch. even beginners in the newbie queue who know literally nothing know enough to not roll over and die. if you're town, you were right on leet, come be right again.

no counterwagon and nobody really arguing against the lynch even though 1 v 10 with a jk would be close to a guaranteed loss. nice.

There are at minimum 3 town who are voting ID

4Head

if id is gonna flip scum his partner will stand out defending him tho.

besides me and id who would you vote today? im clearly not gonna vote myself as a counterwagon but who else do you think could be?

Okay I'm gonna iso ID and see how I feel glgl

ID has some strained reads on KoC early that might be partnery

I can't really tell alignment from the first page though it just feels somewhat stiff

I think knights is my preferred alternative to the ID wagon

Still holding out hope my read was right and ID is just super apathetic

id like to add that/if/ we don't lynch id he needs to be globally accepted as town because otherwise he is an easy ass push down the road

that quote is interesting bc id wouldve been bussing leet 'right off the bat' subbing in on d2

:thinking:

Was ID on king or hitmonleet D2?

It's not really bussing if you're voting the counterwagon

...asked the man with the ID iso open

Town reading this.

Was given the opportunity to break hitmonleet tunnel and didn't take it.

So ID and Fort are townier to me now. I was never really about the yeti lynch I just like pressuring her (you guys can do it when I'm gone)

what do

what happened to that id? like after leet got pushed d3 hes just done nothing.

where was the pursuit of something after king flip town leet flip scum gave him some conclusion or other about the wagoners

rip

Lynching Pancake>Knights>ID would be cool guys

 

[Yeti]

trump should hire u for one of the prototypes cucking san diego

 

[Panic Station]

1) I don't know what that means and 2) you're getting what you want so...?

 

[Panic Station]

good night

 

[Yeti]

also if texas knows his partners' voting distribution on d1 it benefits him suuuuuper hard to have kept pushing that "1 in each group + floater" when following that would've led to 3 mislynches

 

[Yeti]

it means its a good wall

 

[Empoof]

Oh god don't bring up me defending ID

 

[Empoof]

btw hawkie talking smack about ID was the reason I flipped to that slot again after moody

 

[Yeti]

fffffffffffffffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuddddddddddddgggggggggggggggggeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee how did we let id live that day

man im so tilted i didnt get the vote switch off on d5 too

like man

looking back all the reasons to vote id were there and then fsr pancake lynch like ? WHY i still wonder why

 

[Yeti]

who were you people that thought pancake > id d4

why did his resign work

do we need suicide watch for hawkie

 

[Hawkie]

lel no deaths again very good jorb

also how is it possible its been a midnight and the morning of HUMP DAY and already 5 pages in feelsbd

i like how leet flipped scum tho good job town for actually lynching him if you noticed his bad tactics

ill make reads later i gotta study for exams so i keep my posts like this

can we ban people like this from joining in the future

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

zzzz

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Well this was fun to come to

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Hawkie your thought process is good but you're confirmation biasing your way into a read you want to see

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

I'm not going to bother responding to each of these individually, there's too much misinterpretation of stuff by yeti in particular