Official Smogon Fantasy Football Thread - 2015-16 Edition

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thinking about selling high on Eli and trying to send Eli + Marshall to someone starting Alex Smith for Julio Jones. dude also has Antonio Brown somehow.

thoughts?

EDIT: i have Tannehill on the bench.
Doubt that would be accepted. I would've floated that offer out for Brown a couple weeks ago tho
 
thinking about selling high on Eli and trying to send Eli + Marshall to someone starting Alex Smith for Julio Jones. dude also has Antonio Brown somehow.

thoughts?

EDIT: i have Tannehill on the bench.
honestly I'd stay away from Julio, he draws Josh Norman twice in the playoffs and Norman has looked like a true shutdown corner this year. It would suck to trade that much away for a guy that gives you 6/50/0 in weeks 14/16.

if Marshall plays this week he'll be fine, he is 5/7 100 yard games and only has 1 game with under 10 points in Standard (Julio is 4/8 and had 3 consecutive games under 10 points, though he was banged up during that stretch)
 

WaterBomb

Two kids no brane
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Jets might end up going back to Geno though if Fitzpatrick can't play, putting a severe cap on his potential as well.
 
I finally remembered to make waiver moves in League C

Luckily I'm in last place So I could get DeAngelo. Now time to win out and squeeze into the playoffs :^)
 

WaterBomb

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All my leagues have their waiver priority solely based on order of last waiver claim. I know some leagues have it in reverse order of standings, but I don't like that system. This way you can't just spam the waiver wire if you happen to be in last place. Continual rolling makes you think about your claims more carefully before you make them. For this reason I will mostly just wait til players hit FA and get them then, to preserve my spot for that one big opportunity after a player gets hurt.
 

WaterBomb

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ESPN sent me an alert yesterday suggesting I switch Jason Witten in for Tyler Eifert because he had a higher projected score. Fortunately, I ignored said advice
 

WaterBomb

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Damn it every outlet said all week hilton wasnt gonna play then not only does he play he goes off. Fantasy hates me this year
 

Stallion

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171 league B points, and that's with Mariota, Karlos Williams and Alan Hurns on the bench. I'm going to be 4-5 and be either first or second in points for after this week, Lol.
 

WaterBomb

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171 league B points, and that's with Mariota, Karlos Williams and Alan Hurns on the bench. I'm going to be 4-5 and be either first or second in points for after this week, Lol.
Happens to one team every year in fantasy. Guess it's your year?
 
This probably isn't a popular opinion but I'm convinced now more than ever fantasy football is about 80% luck and 20% skill. And this is coming from somebody who has won quite a few leagues in his seven years playing
 
You can compare it to poker. There are certainly hands/players that are more likely to win, but pocket aces can lose to seven-deuce every now and then.

The difference is that you can play thousands of thousands of hands and the odds will even out in the end.

But you can't replay a football season, unless you are playing Madden. If someone had managed to pick LeVeon Bell/Antonio Brown as their first two picks (or, more likely, bought them in an auction draft), everyone would be thinking they got an INSANE combination, quite possibly the top RB/WR in points scored. If we were to replay the 2015 NFL season thousands of times, those two would likely carry their team to the playoffs at least.

But Bell will end this universe's 2015 season as having played 6.5 games, and Brown will play at least 6 games without Ben as his starting QB. Them's the breaks, yo.
 
Right, I've had some shitty moments and shitty teams in fantasy football but far more compared to any other sport. Over the years it's been neutralized by consistent winning, but in the grand scheme of things you have little control of your team's performance from week to week in this sport.

And in what other fantasy sport can you have:
- your opponent's Cassel outscore your Big Ben (this week, 20 team league)
- have half your team bust/get injured (Charles, Lacy, K. Benjamin, J. Matthews, Romo, Tyrod Taylor, Mariota - all in the same keeper league)
- three close losses smearing your record when you lead the league in points scored

All these things have happened to me in various leagues just this year. Of course injuries, busts, and fluky weeks happen in other sports, but it's especially magnified in fantasy football with such a small sample size of games played compared to the other sports.
 
tfw you're 1-7 and your season is already lost so you magically start dropping 200 burgers on your opponents every week because it doesn't matter anymore
damn dude that's rough.

7-2 and first place in my .5ppr league, and i need to win out and get some help at 4-5.
 
so everyone in my money league is bitching about the waiver system. since it resets every week giving priority according to each person's record, the last place guy who's been 1-5 the whole season suddenly has the most stacked team in the league. and since the league is very competitive and everyone's records are pretty similar, the guy who used to be in last place now has a legit shot at making the playoffs (and if he does, might win the whole thing)

last year we used this system as well, but the guy in last place didn't have this type of stacked team/comeback season like this year. so is it a flaw in the waiver system or this just an anomaly?
 

WaterBomb

Two kids no brane
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so everyone in my money league is bitching about the waiver system. since it resets every week giving priority according to each person's record, the last place guy who's been 1-5 the whole season suddenly has the most stacked team in the league. and since the league is very competitive and everyone's records are pretty similar, the guy who used to be in last place now has a legit shot at making the playoffs (and if he does, might win the whole thing)

last year we used this system as well, but the guy in last place didn't have this type of stacked team/comeback season like this year. so is it a flaw in the waiver system or this just an anomaly?
Well having the highest waiver priority is only a benefit when there is actually a player worth having available. With the rash of injuries to big name players this year there have been an abnormally high number of second and third stringers thrust into starting roles, making them suddenly fantasy relevant when they were not before. In a year with an average amount of injuries this waiver system would probably not cause much of a problem, as for the most part you won't have big takes on the wire save for a few breakout stars that were left undrafted.

That being said, I am still a fan of the continual rolling list system because it provides incentive for people to choose their claims more carefully. The guy who's been patiently waiting all season can have a legit shot at grabbing a Charcandrick West or DeAngelo Williams when the situation arises, as opposed to the last place guy always getting them. Also, it's more fair because major injuries can happen to any team, even the first place guy.
 
An all waiver team of Tyler Eifert, Deangelo Williams, Darren Mcfadden, Charcandrick West, Stephon Diggs, Blake Bortles/Derek Carr/Andy Dalton, and Allen Hurns would be a perfectly viable and completely obtainable team for the last place person to start assembling in week 1.

waivers resetting is obviously better, but the real solution is to use FAAB instead. I can understand sticking to Snake drafts (I still prefer them myself tbh) but there's no excuse for not using the best fair waiver wire system there is. it actually adds quite a bit of strategy to your waiver wire moves, and even in a league that's not very competitive you can still get sniped just because someone else wanted a guy more than you did. I've switched over to it in 2 leagues and would definitely recommend it.
 
Eifert was something like TE15 before the season started, so I imagine he was on a lot of waivers before week 1 when he scored twice.

it'd totally be feasible to pick him up after week 1, West after week 5, Mcfadden after week 7, Williams after week 8, and the rest somewhere in weeks 2-4 + 6 and go from literally nothing to having a solid roster.
 
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