Data Official Smogon University Simulator Statistics — December 2013

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#26
This is certainly surprising to see Infernape to make it to the top 50 and the . Which brings me to a question that must be asked. To what extent did the weather nerf buff fire types in general? In example how much more viable is weatherless ,stall, offense in generation 6 than it was in gen 5?
 
#27
Everything seems about right. Still not sure why Kyurem Black is so overlooked, but I'm sure people will start using it again soon. I was also a little surprised at the amount of usage donphan is getting. I personally use one from time to time, but everyone seemed to be down on donphan with the whole weather nerf. Oh, and a lot of rotoms are getting killed by haxorus. People are still struggling with the concept of mold breaker it seems.
Which is funny considering it's been out for a long time now. They only think about their own ability and then bam, they get hit.
 
#28
Which is funny considering it's been out for a long time now. They only think about their own ability and then bam, they get hit.
It's an easy ability to overlook considering it hasn't been as dominant in any other meta. The Majority of Excadrill run it. Killing off Rotom-W is fun.
 
#29
Moldbreaker definitely takes some getting used to. Early in the gen, I kept trying to switch Latios into a predicted EQ from Excadrill. Oops...

Recently, someone I was facing was like "OMG Moldbreaker!" when my Excadrill was hitting a Quagsire. My reaction was "wtf is this guy talking about?" Turns out it hits through Unaware as well. I had no idea...
 
#30
This is certainly surprising to see Infernape to make it to the top 50 and the . Which brings me to a question that must be asked. To what extent did the weather nerf buff fire types in general? In example how much more viable is weatherless ,stall, offense in generation 6 than it was in gen 5?
I think here are some buffs fire type directly or indirectly receives this generation

1. weather nerf, no more rains and massive Hydro bumps hanging around
2. Burn is a whole lot more common these days, and fire have immunity to it
3. With defog getting popularized, it sort of alleviate the SR pressure fire types have been experiencing (less relevant for infernape though)

At the end of the day, fire has always been a great offensive typing in general, and hands down the best solution to steels. It is also great as STAB move, as only water can be called a "common defensive typing" among its resistances. Funny indeed, powerful dragons was what surpressing dragon as a defensive typing.

Well, what surprise me most would be Galvantula, it still manage to make OU after people realise spiderweb is not as good as it seems, outside that I see no reason why it is used over Rotom-W or Thundurus.
 

Anty

i don't know why i say the things i say
is a Site Staff Alumnusis a Team Rater Alumnusis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis a Smogon Media Contributor Alumnus
#31
The gen5 stats are outrageous. Weather has been used a lot less, with politoed falling to 4th. Somehow jolteon got 25th, who uses it, even in 1850 it is too high (mid 30's). Keldeo is 35, behind vaporeon!!!!!!! Only just in front of toxicroak and keldeo. Hippo is also stupidly low, 54th, in uu range.

UU isnt much better, at least shitmontop is 22nd, otherwise, snorlax is only 14th! Blastiose has dropped, but is still too high at 7th. Shaymin is in between milotic and claydol.

You know the ladder is very strange when gligar tops the 1850 vs Standard.
 
#32
I wrote a program that takes the list of pokemon on your team and outputs team recommendations based on the checks and counters listed in Antar's moveset data.

It's very rough right now, but the suggestions it's outputting are surprisingly good. I was expecting to need to ask for a more complete version of the checks & counters data (which would still make it more accurate) but so far it's working.

Example 1:

I put in five of my favorite competitive pokemon (Breloom, Dragonite, Talonflame, Espeon, Excadrill)

Code:
Threats to your team:
Gourgeist-Super    86.9278496904482
Weavile    60.150519379907465
Landorus    56.81034174287042
Heatran    50.66887480918136
Aegislash    48.074544861923364
Mawile    44.41965149061897
Kangaskhan    42.27849907752407
Mamoswine    41.94762168164124
Breloom    41.115309436655544
Slowbro    40.90670151215548
Gourgeist-Large    40.85128295672798
Manaphy    40.49048126779569
Celebi    40.06971375608637
Trevenant    36.666296067004296
Kyurem-Black    36.40582845330635
Porygon2    35.027886925092204
Avalugg    33.394520234422394
Crobat    31.172344358635804
Relicanth    28.30151184246452
Cloyster    28.017633788006698
Exeggutor    20.99952103412423
Tyranitar    12.166475748444768
Azumarill    7.981931995139604
Code:
Recommendations based on threats:
Volcarona    303.03141263943496
Keldeo    301.3312174537269
Lucario    300.52260707371573
Heatran    296.1536156941382
Bisharp    294.23292833724844
Conkeldurr    280.8665891833872
Medicham    268.82139974618997
Manaphy    246.30515182240748
Pinsir    236.49331451115427
Terrakion    236.2722216368533
Clefable    221.05908367006023
Kangaskhan    210.20362899357264
Houndoom    192.9034032075842
Charizard    189.077523645622
Suicune    177.59217475879393
Venusaur    176.93860871950912
Heracross    168.6122998964972
Aegislash    166.96608423047215
Alakazam    159.24992946564248
Gyarados    157.61227384436796
Blastoise    157.44523834509008
Togekiss    146.22708507677424
Scizor    142.17233176601678
Mawile    133.69812655793018
Thundurus    128.64516363804137
Breloom    123.25426467367356
Slowbro    103.11316074187063
Weavile    98.78310075467297
Metagross    96.86487975873948
Mamoswine    96.37808765885137
Machamp    95.77198500855194
Mandibuzz    94.53143755158821
Infernape    93.91839059443939
Ferrothorn    92.63714126734972
Scrafty    92.5427520514451
Entei    84.20269322091633
Cloyster    83.79910449030487
Roserade    80.31282548090434
Gliscor    79.789129348865
Blissey    79.50828035793062
Azumarill    79.18632713916818
Gardevoir    77.12471492136243
Gengar    76.94647925706298
Exeggutor    76.64361043163805
Celebi    75.41826674695784
Landorus    72.76369529564228
Clawitzer    72.48844316680618
Gourgeist-Super    72.09471469580181
Chandelure    70.92449596888245
Donphan    67.95910806514766
Quagsire    67.49065901370545
Kingler    63.931817111622706
Empoleon    62.02336878990627
Milotic    58.83614206251254
Kingdra    57.553786752140454
Swampert    57.46976562009674
Aggron    57.15448011561091
Cresselia    57.06970656974398
Feraligatr    56.980790179514464
Latios    55.09940570004905
Greninja    54.19271857417174
Latias    53.922456065496775
Starmie    50.510755149535356
Abomasnow    50.24485171358095
Yanmega    48.49100249854761
Honchkrow    48.11115265800735
Malamar    47.825581720608476
Rotom-Wash    47.60200142003716
Toxicroak    46.40529800282424
Sigilyph    44.833304836964
Avalugg    43.09744286961976
Shaymin    42.74140574213631
Zygarde    41.33933267135795
Crawdaunt    41.2890381604478
Amoonguss    41.27766211894098
Exploud    41.00890491210482
Kyurem-Black    40.84151801742466
Leafeon    40.741407625838534
Absol    40.54897863152045
Aerodactyl    40.3999160098068
Sableye    40.39946006791098
Pyroar    40.37401583230114
Gallade    39.55883129288449
Thundurus-Therian    39.42531250460852
Victreebel    39.39716610702965
Chansey    39.261195019334956
Hydreigon    39.17930152978017
Tangela    39.141290120713656
Jolteon    39.13121873917508
Tyranitar    37.8630600049728
Heliolisk    37.6440019754798
Hippowdon    37.33287492515363
Sceptile    37.15429231139816
Raikou    36.682000501305744
Jirachi    36.562714536457364
Manectric    36.15075595463441
Trevenant    34.86016499947682
Chesnaught    34.61917273670937
Barbaracle    33.9609494326518
Mienshao    33.37960353317238
Crobat    32.6673890843591
Arcanine    31.92981133230653
Jellicent    31.166019658380456
Klefki    31.142662491323264
Genesect    30.057787525545837
Landorus-Therian    28.63362588027342
Hitmontop    26.672886064226716
Note that those top three suggestions look absolutely reasonable.
Example 2:

Let's say I'm building a team from scratch and I start with Espeon. I'm only going to post the top three recommendations for each step to save space.

Code:
Conkeldurr    317.97418826646793
Lucario    264.4038517792944
Keldeo    241.81222037677728
Espeon, Lucario:
Code:
Azumarill    224.39478932473995
Talonflame    216.11262573762298
Pinsir    192.39535825389305
Espeon, Lucario, Azumarill:
Code:
Pinsir   236.51574077341482
Kangaskhan   200.12256197279197
Talonflame   188.59197304018863
Espeon, Lucario, Azumarill, Talonflame:
Code:
Venusaur   202.17466045530645
Bisharp   178.32373639533245
Suicune   167.57164541510173
Espeon, Lucario, Azumarill, Talonflame, Bisharp:
Code:
Venusaur   260.42020535787873
Suicune   217.7264499500982
Manaphy   202.05084272810558
Final team: Espeon, Lucario, Azumarill, Talonflame, Bisharp, Suicune

The top threat to which is apparently Breloom.
Example 3:

I started with Rotom-W, and took the top suggestion unless they were Kangaskhan (because we know that data is outdated) or it was an obvious mega and there already was one on the team. I got Rotom-Wash, Pinser, Heatran, Blissey, Breloom, Talonflame. The top threat to this team is Terrakion.

Following the same procedure with Lucario -> Lucario, Talonflame, Manaphy, Goodra, Bisharp, Slowbro. Top threat is Conkeldurr.

Genesect -> Genesect, Terrakion, Pinsir, Heatran, Manaphy, Goodra. Top threat is Terrakion.

Haxorus -> Haxorus, Heatran, Venusaur, Aegislash, Keldeo, Thundurus. Top threat is Pinsir.

Blissey -> Blissey, Pinsir, Conkeldurr, Heatran, Breloom, Slowbro. Top threat is Pinsir.
Algorithm:

Threats scores are found by using counter rates of all of your pokemon, summed, then weighted by how often that counter appears. So if Talonflame is countered by Tyranitar 83% of the time, Espeon is countered by Tyranitar 84% of the time, and Tyranitar has a useage weight of 0.58, then T-tar counters a team with those two by (83+84) * 0.58 = ~97.

Threat scores are then reduced by the counter rates of any of your team members. If the above team has Scrafty, which counters Tyranitar 85% of the time, then Tyranitar's score becomes ~12. There is no useage weighting on this step - we know these pokemon are relevant because they're on your team.

Suggestions are used by going through all threats, finding the counter rates of their counters, multiplying them by that threat's threat score, and adding that to the suggestion's suggestion score.

Code:

This isn't wrapped up to be easy to use. You'll need to understand Java. You'll also need a copy of the moveset data report that Antar provided. http://pastebin.com/gpnKx64w

I can do a couple of runs for people who can't run the code themselves, but if it gets to be a hassle or blows up the thread, I'll stop.

I have some ideas for how to make this more powerful and more accessible, but I want to stop and see if anyone else is interested in this first.
 

blizzardy

Link Together With All
#34
I wrote a program that takes the list of pokemon on your team and outputs team recommendations based on the checks and counters listed in Antar's moveset data.

It's very rough right now, but the suggestions it's outputting are surprisingly good. I was expecting to need to ask for a more complete version of the checks & counters data (which would still make it more accurate) but so far it's working.

Example 1:



Example 2:



Example 3:



Algorithm:

Threats scores are found by using counter rates of all of your pokemon, summed, then weighted by how often that counter appears. So if Talonflame is countered by Tyranitar 83% of the time, Espeon is countered by Tyranitar 84% of the time, and Tyranitar has a useage weight of 0.58, then T-tar counters a team with those two by (83+84) * 0.58 = ~97.

Threat scores are then reduced by the counter rates of any of your team members. If the above team has Scrafty, which counters Tyranitar 85% of the time, then Tyranitar's score becomes ~12. There is no useage weighting on this step - we know these pokemon are relevant because they're on your team.

Suggestions are used by going through all threats, finding the counter rates of their counters, multiplying them by that threat's threat score, and adding that to the suggestion's suggestion score.

Code:

This isn't wrapped up to be easy to use. You'll need to understand Java. You'll also need a copy of the moveset data report that Antar provided. http://pastebin.com/gpnKx64w

I can do a couple of runs for people who can't run the code themselves, but if it gets to be a hassle or blows up the thread, I'll stop.

I have some ideas for how to make this more powerful and more accessible, but I want to stop and see if anyone else is interested in this first.
This is amazing. Does it work for Little Cup as well?
 
#35
This is amazing. Does it work for Little Cup as well?
I fed it the data from LC and it didn't break. I don't know LC at all though, so you'll have to tell me if this is a reasonable team:

Gligar -> Gligar, Pawniard, Tangela, Swirlix, Timburr, Fletchling. Top threats: Mantyke, Gligar, Clamperl
 

blizzardy

Link Together With All
#36
I fed it the data from LC and it didn't break. I don't know LC at all though, so you'll have to tell me if this is a reasonable team:

Gligar -> Gligar, Pawniard, Tangela, Swirlix, Timburr, Fletchling. Top threats: Mantyke, Gligar, Clamperl
Yeah, that is a pretty good team. Though Tangela is banned now.
 
#37
Yeah, that is a pretty good team. Though Tangela is banned now.
It suggests replacing Tangela with Misdreavus. That's a little fishy though; Misdreavus was its seventh choice before. In OU, if you replaced a pokemon and kept asking, it would usually start heading off in a different direction with recommendations. It's kind of weird that it's just going down the top few.

For an example, the top suggestions from just Gligar are Pawniard, Swirlix, Tangela, Scraggy, Meditite, Misdreavus, Timburr, Munchlax. The only pokemon from the final team that's not already on the list is Fletchling.

In OU, the top suggestions from just Rotom-Wash are Pinsir, Volcarona, Charizard, Talonflame, Togekiss, Medicham, Dragonite, Kangaskhan. The team I got from chaining suggestions together, though, was Rotom-Wash, Pinser, Heatran, Blissey, Breloom, Talonflame. Three of those are not in the initial recommendations.

I think something about LC, the amount of data, or Gligar is making it just favor the best pokemon, instead of team variety.
 
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UltiMario

Out of Obscurity
is a Pokemon Researcher
#38
As long as we're finally going to move to OU, and stats are actually going to start meaning anything...

Maybe we can move 1850 stats to like, 2100 stats or something?

Even before the ladder got super inflated, 1850 was always way too low for the stats to have any statistical meaning.

I always felt that these kinds of stats should be a picture of what the metagame actually looks like at higher level

| 262 | Rampardos | 0.05833% | 5911 | 0.193% | 4451 | 0.183% |

There's random mons like this that should have 0 usage in the "upper" stats, can we at least like try to push the number a little higher so we can get some more useful information from stats?
 
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#39
2200 is too high, there are probably around 700 battlers with a score of 2200 or better (500 is 2257), that's not enough battlers to really determine a score but i do agree, 1850 is too low for an elite ladder

i think 2000 would be a much better threshold than 1850, 2000 to the top score is still a lot of battlers (probably a couple thousand currently) and it's not too low so that every can get there in like 3 wins, 2000 is where all the random stuff is filtered out, but yea, 1850 is too low
 

Ash Borer

I've heard they're short of room in hell
#40
Squashed

Hey man coding is a beautiful thing, I'd love to see this get a nice UI, it would be a great teambuilding tool I am definitely interested.
 

tahu

Within me there grows a rhythmic savage beast
is a Pre-Contributor
#41
The problem with upping the cutoff for the higher stats is that tiers other than OU have only a handful of players above 2000, so the stats would be hyper-inflated.
 
#42
| 262 | Rampardos | 0.05833% | 5911 | 0.193% | 4451 | 0.183% |

There's random mons like this that should have 0 usage in the "upper" stats, can we at least like try to push the number a little higher so we can get some more useful information from stats?
I've used Rampardos at 2300+ before. 0.05833% is tiny, I don't understand the outrage. Rampardos is quite a unique pokemon and it's entirely possible to build a good team around it. If a pokemon is generally bad but can do some things that nothing better can, it should still show up once in a while. An example of a pokemon that should never be used in practice is something like Pidgeot, which has several identical-but-better choices.

For fun, another generated team from pokemon mentioned this thread: Rampardos, Donphan, Crawdaunt, Blissey, Breloom, Pinsir
 

Antar

is a Battle Server Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributor
Official Data Miner
#43
| 262 | Rampardos | 0.05833% | 5911 | 0.193% | 4451 | 0.183% |

There's random mons like this that should have 0 usage in the "upper" stats, can we at least like try to push the number a little higher so we can get some more useful information from stats?
My reason for reporting these stats all the way down to 1 occurrence is a selfish one--so I can read from these tables when calculating diff stats / tier updates.

As for moving the cutoff (which, recall, is not a hard cutoff but simply weights players by the LIKELIHOOD that their true ratings are greater than 1850), I did some initial testing when I first came up with this concept, and 2200 and 1850 were virtually identical, IIRC. The problem right now is this rating inflation, which Zarel and I are right now trying to decide how to solve.
 
#46
I wrote a program that takes the list of pokemon on your team and outputs team recommendations based on the checks and counters listed in Antar's moveset data.



I can do a couple of runs for people who can't run the code themselves, but if it gets to be a hassle or blows up the thread, I'll stop.

I have some ideas for how to make this more powerful and more accessible, but I want to stop and see if anyone else is interested in this first.
Thats awesome squashed. Seems like something that would be easy to make into some kind of online tool. I think that has a lot of potential
 
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#47
Because now that Pokebank has been released (at least for, like, ten people), the main tier is the true XY.
Thats arguable.
"True RBY" means only RBY without Moves from GSC.
So "True XY" means "Pre-Bank" because it means XY only, without moves and Pokemon from other games.
 
#48
Okay I want that teambuilder now. I'm almost tempted to go learn Java just so I can use it as soon as possible. How quickly do you think you will have an interface set up?
 
#49
Thats arguable.
"True RBY" means only RBY without Moves from GSC.
So "True XY" means "Pre-Bank" because it means XY only, without moves and Pokemon from other games.
But I think XY is designed with the assumption of previous pokemon being transfered, without them half the pokedex is empty

Anyway, different people would have different definition about "true", I don't really think pre-bank sounds peculiar by any mean anyway.
 

Antar

is a Battle Server Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributor
Official Data Miner
#50
Yikarur Photofluid

It's a moot point. Smogon has decided to discontinue the "Pre-bank" tiers so as to focus on the "Pokebank" metagames. Since they won't appear in stats ever again, it really doesn't matter what you want to call them.
 
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