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Data Official Smogon University Simulator Statistics — December 2013

Discussion in 'Competitive Discussion' started by Antar, Jan 2, 2014.

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  1. HimikoReminisphere

    HimikoReminisphere

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    This is certainly surprising to see Infernape to make it to the top 50 and the . Which brings me to a question that must be asked. To what extent did the weather nerf buff fire types in general? In example how much more viable is weatherless ,stall, offense in generation 6 than it was in gen 5?
  2. Sol64

    Sol64

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    Which is funny considering it's been out for a long time now. They only think about their own ability and then bam, they get hit.
    dragon_poop and mac1275 like this.
  3. SuperMegaUltra

    SuperMegaUltra

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    It's an easy ability to overlook considering it hasn't been as dominant in any other meta. The Majority of Excadrill run it. Killing off Rotom-W is fun.
  4. noknuckles

    noknuckles

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    Moldbreaker definitely takes some getting used to. Early in the gen, I kept trying to switch Latios into a predicted EQ from Excadrill. Oops...

    Recently, someone I was facing was like "OMG Moldbreaker!" when my Excadrill was hitting a Quagsire. My reaction was "wtf is this guy talking about?" Turns out it hits through Unaware as well. I had no idea...
  5. Photofluid

    Photofluid

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    I think here are some buffs fire type directly or indirectly receives this generation

    1. weather nerf, no more rains and massive Hydro bumps hanging around
    2. Burn is a whole lot more common these days, and fire have immunity to it
    3. With defog getting popularized, it sort of alleviate the SR pressure fire types have been experiencing (less relevant for infernape though)

    At the end of the day, fire has always been a great offensive typing in general, and hands down the best solution to steels. It is also great as STAB move, as only water can be called a "common defensive typing" among its resistances. Funny indeed, powerful dragons was what surpressing dragon as a defensive typing.

    Well, what surprise me most would be Galvantula, it still manage to make OU after people realise spiderweb is not as good as it seems, outside that I see no reason why it is used over Rotom-W or Thundurus.
  6. Anty

    Anty

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    The gen5 stats are outrageous. Weather has been used a lot less, with politoed falling to 4th. Somehow jolteon got 25th, who uses it, even in 1850 it is too high (mid 30's). Keldeo is 35, behind vaporeon!!!!!!! Only just in front of toxicroak and keldeo. Hippo is also stupidly low, 54th, in uu range.

    UU isnt much better, at least shitmontop is 22nd, otherwise, snorlax is only 14th! Blastiose has dropped, but is still too high at 7th. Shaymin is in between milotic and claydol.

    You know the ladder is very strange when gligar tops the 1850 vs Standard.
  7. Squashed

    Squashed

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    I wrote a program that takes the list of pokemon on your team and outputs team recommendations based on the checks and counters listed in Antar's moveset data.

    It's very rough right now, but the suggestions it's outputting are surprisingly good. I was expecting to need to ask for a more complete version of the checks & counters data (which would still make it more accurate) but so far it's working.

    Example 1:

    Example 2:

    Example 3:

    Algorithm:

    Threats scores are found by using counter rates of all of your pokemon, summed, then weighted by how often that counter appears. So if Talonflame is countered by Tyranitar 83% of the time, Espeon is countered by Tyranitar 84% of the time, and Tyranitar has a useage weight of 0.58, then T-tar counters a team with those two by (83+84) * 0.58 = ~97.

    Threat scores are then reduced by the counter rates of any of your team members. If the above team has Scrafty, which counters Tyranitar 85% of the time, then Tyranitar's score becomes ~12. There is no useage weighting on this step - we know these pokemon are relevant because they're on your team.

    Suggestions are used by going through all threats, finding the counter rates of their counters, multiplying them by that threat's threat score, and adding that to the suggestion's suggestion score.

    Code:

    This isn't wrapped up to be easy to use. You'll need to understand Java. You'll also need a copy of the moveset data report that Antar provided. http://pastebin.com/gpnKx64w

    I can do a couple of runs for people who can't run the code themselves, but if it gets to be a hassle or blows up the thread, I'll stop.

    I have some ideas for how to make this more powerful and more accessible, but I want to stop and see if anyone else is interested in this first.
  8. Mood4food77

    Mood4food77

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    just go ahead and make it better, i'm fairly certain no one will oppose the awesomeness that you have shown us, seriously
  9. blizzardy

    blizzardy Link Together With All
    is a Pre-Contributor

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    This is amazing. Does it work for Little Cup as well?
  10. Squashed

    Squashed

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    I fed it the data from LC and it didn't break. I don't know LC at all though, so you'll have to tell me if this is a reasonable team:

    Gligar -> Gligar, Pawniard, Tangela, Swirlix, Timburr, Fletchling. Top threats: Mantyke, Gligar, Clamperl
  11. blizzardy

    blizzardy Link Together With All
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    Yeah, that is a pretty good team. Though Tangela is banned now.
  12. Squashed

    Squashed

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    It suggests replacing Tangela with Misdreavus. That's a little fishy though; Misdreavus was its seventh choice before. In OU, if you replaced a pokemon and kept asking, it would usually start heading off in a different direction with recommendations. It's kind of weird that it's just going down the top few.

    For an example, the top suggestions from just Gligar are Pawniard, Swirlix, Tangela, Scraggy, Meditite, Misdreavus, Timburr, Munchlax. The only pokemon from the final team that's not already on the list is Fletchling.

    In OU, the top suggestions from just Rotom-Wash are Pinsir, Volcarona, Charizard, Talonflame, Togekiss, Medicham, Dragonite, Kangaskhan. The team I got from chaining suggestions together, though, was Rotom-Wash, Pinser, Heatran, Blissey, Breloom, Talonflame. Three of those are not in the initial recommendations.

    I think something about LC, the amount of data, or Gligar is making it just favor the best pokemon, instead of team variety.
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2014
  13. UltiMario

    UltiMario

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    As long as we're finally going to move to OU, and stats are actually going to start meaning anything...

    Maybe we can move 1850 stats to like, 2100 stats or something?

    Even before the ladder got super inflated, 1850 was always way too low for the stats to have any statistical meaning.

    I always felt that these kinds of stats should be a picture of what the metagame actually looks like at higher level

    | 262 | Rampardos | 0.05833% | 5911 | 0.193% | 4451 | 0.183% |

    There's random mons like this that should have 0 usage in the "upper" stats, can we at least like try to push the number a little higher so we can get some more useful information from stats?
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2014
  14. Mood4food77

    Mood4food77

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    2200 is too high, there are probably around 700 battlers with a score of 2200 or better (500 is 2257), that's not enough battlers to really determine a score but i do agree, 1850 is too low for an elite ladder

    i think 2000 would be a much better threshold than 1850, 2000 to the top score is still a lot of battlers (probably a couple thousand currently) and it's not too low so that every can get there in like 3 wins, 2000 is where all the random stuff is filtered out, but yea, 1850 is too low
  15. Ash Borer

    Ash Borer Throttle Chopper

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    Squashed

    Hey man coding is a beautiful thing, I'd love to see this get a nice UI, it would be a great teambuilding tool I am definitely interested.
  16. Tahu

    Tahu

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    The problem with upping the cutoff for the higher stats is that tiers other than OU have only a handful of players above 2000, so the stats would be hyper-inflated.
    Antar likes this.
  17. Squashed

    Squashed

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    I've used Rampardos at 2300+ before. 0.05833% is tiny, I don't understand the outrage. Rampardos is quite a unique pokemon and it's entirely possible to build a good team around it. If a pokemon is generally bad but can do some things that nothing better can, it should still show up once in a while. An example of a pokemon that should never be used in practice is something like Pidgeot, which has several identical-but-better choices.

    For fun, another generated team from pokemon mentioned this thread: Rampardos, Donphan, Crawdaunt, Blissey, Breloom, Pinsir
  18. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
    is a Battle Server Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributor
    Official Data Miner

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    My reason for reporting these stats all the way down to 1 occurrence is a selfish one--so I can read from these tables when calculating diff stats / tier updates.

    As for moving the cutoff (which, recall, is not a hard cutoff but simply weights players by the LIKELIHOOD that their true ratings are greater than 1850), I did some initial testing when I first came up with this concept, and 2200 and 1850 were virtually identical, IIRC. The problem right now is this rating inflation, which Zarel and I are right now trying to decide how to solve.
  19. Yikarur

    Yikarur

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    I want to make a suggestion.
    What about calling "Pre-Bank" just "True XY" ?
    Pre-Bank doesn't sound really good imo.
  20. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
    is a Battle Server Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributor
    Official Data Miner

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    Because now that Pokebank has been released (at least for, like, ten people), the main tier is the true XY.
    Lugi likes this.
  21. Alejandro36

    Alejandro36

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    Thats awesome squashed. Seems like something that would be easy to make into some kind of online tool. I think that has a lot of potential
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2014
  22. Yikarur

    Yikarur

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    Thats arguable.
    "True RBY" means only RBY without Moves from GSC.
    So "True XY" means "Pre-Bank" because it means XY only, without moves and Pokemon from other games.
  23. TooMuchSugar

    TooMuchSugar

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    Okay I want that teambuilder now. I'm almost tempted to go learn Java just so I can use it as soon as possible. How quickly do you think you will have an interface set up?
  24. Photofluid

    Photofluid

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    But I think XY is designed with the assumption of previous pokemon being transfered, without them half the pokedex is empty

    Anyway, different people would have different definition about "true", I don't really think pre-bank sounds peculiar by any mean anyway.
  25. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
    is a Battle Server Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributor
    Official Data Miner

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    Yikarur Photofluid

    It's a moot point. Smogon has decided to discontinue the "Pre-bank" tiers so as to focus on the "Pokebank" metagames. Since they won't appear in stats ever again, it really doesn't matter what you want to call them.
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