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Discussion in 'Pokémetrics' started by X-Act, Jun 9, 2009.

1. ### X-Actnp: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock

Joined:
Feb 17, 2006
Messages:
4,675
Statistics involving leading Pokemon in teams are, if anything, much easier to interpret than those involving usages in teams, as there's only one lead per team (as opposed to six Pokemon in a team).

We can thus know exactly what makes a leading Pokemon overused. The definition is as follows:

The group of overused Pokemon leads is the minimum number of Pokemon that, collectively, lead teams more often than all the other Pokemon.

Mathematically, the group of overused Pokemon is the minimum number of Pokemon whose sum of percentage usages exceeds 50%.

Note that this definition cannot be used as the OU tier definition, as a team contains 6 Pokemon, not 1.

Doug's statistics conveniently orders lead usages in descending order. Hence, summing them cumulatively, starting from the top, until we exceed 50% guarantees that the number of leads in the list is a minimum, allowing for a very simple algorithm.

After applying this definition for this months statistics for May, here are the overused leads:

Code:
```Abomasnow
Aerodactyl
Azelf
Bronzong
Heatran
Hippowdon
Infernape
Jirachi
Metagross
Swampert
Tyranitar
(12 Pokemon)```

Code:
```Darkrai
Deoxys-S
Groudon
Kyogre
(4 Pokemon)```

Code:
```Ambipom
Arcanine
Cloyster
Crobat
Electrode
Hippopotas
Moltres
Regirock
Uxie
Yanmega
(11 Pokemon)```

Code:
```Bronzong
Deoxys-S
Jirachi
Metagross
Shaymin-S
Tyranitar
(6 Pokemon)```

Here are the overused leads from January to May, for each ladder:

Code:
```+----------------------------------------------------------------+
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| January    | February   | March      | April      | May        |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Aerodactyl | Aerodactyl | Aerodactyl | Abomasnow  | Abomasnow  |
| Azelf      | Azelf      | Azelf      | Aerodactyl | Aerodactyl |
| Bronzong   | Bronzong   | Bronzong   | Azelf      | Azelf      |
| Gengar     | Gengar     | Gengar     | Bronzong   | Bronzong   |
| Gyarados   | Heatran    | Heatran    | Heatran    | Heatran    |
| Heatran    | Hippowdon  | Hippowdon  | Hippowdon  | Hippowdon  |
| Hippowdon  | Infernape  | Infernape  | Infernape  | Infernape  |
| Infernape  | Jirachi    | Jirachi    | Jirachi    | Jirachi    |
| Jirachi    | Metagross  | Metagross  | Metagross  | Metagross  |
| Ninjask    | Swampert   | Swampert   | Swampert   | Swampert   |
| Swampert   | Tyranitar  | Tyranitar  | Tyranitar  | Tyranitar  |
| Tyranitar  |            |            |            |            |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+```
Code:
```+----------------------------------------------------------------+
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| January    | February   | March      | April      | May        |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Darkrai    | Darkrai    | Darkrai    | Darkrai    | Darkrai    |
| Deoxys-A   | Deoxys-A   | Deoxys-S   | Deoxys-S   | Deoxys-S   |
| Deoxys-S   | Deoxys-S   | Groudon    | Groudon    | Groudon    |
| Kyogre     | Kyogre     | Kyogre     | Kyogre     | Kyogre     |
| Mewtwo     |            |            |            |            |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+```
Code:
```+----------------------------------------------------------------+
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| January    | February   | March      | April      | May        |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Abomasnow  | Abomasnow  | Ambipom    | Ambipom    | Ambipom    |
| Ambipom    | Ambipom    | Arcanine   | Arcanine   | Arcanine   |
| Crobat     | Arcanine   | Electrode  | Crobat     | Cloyster   |
| Electrode  | Crobat     | Hippopotas | Electrode  | Crobat     |
| Froslass   | Electrode  | Hitmontop  | Hippopotas | Electrode  |
| Mesprit    | Froslass   | Mesprit    | Lopunny    | Hippopotas |
| Roserade   | Hippopotas | Nidoqueen  | Moltres    | Moltres    |
| Typhlosion | Smeargle   | Smeargle   | Persian    | Roserade   |
| Uxie       | Typhlosion | Steelix    | Roserade   | Uxie       |
|            | Uxie       | Swellow    | Smeargle   | Yanmega    |
|            |            | Typhlosion | Steelix    |            |
|            |            | Uxie       | Swellow    |            |
|            |            |            | Typhlosion |            |
|            |            |            | Uxie       |            |
|            |            |            | Yanmega    |            |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+```
Code:
```+----------------------------------------------------------------+
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| January    | February   | March      | April      | May        |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Aerodactyl | Azelf      | Abomasnow  | Abomasnow  | Bronzong   |
| Azelf      | Bronzong   | Azelf      | Azelf      | Deoxys-S   |
| Heatran    | Infernape  | Bronzong   | Heatran    | Jirachi    |
| Infernape  | Jirachi    | Jirachi    | Jirachi    | Metagross  |
| Jirachi    | Metagross  | Metagross  | Metagross  | Shaymin-S  |
| Metagross  | Swampert   | Swampert   | Roserade   | Tyranitar  |
| Swampert   |            |            |            |            |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+```
(I copied Doug's formatting lol.)
2. ### animenagai

Joined:
Nov 19, 2007
Messages:
1,217
Good stuff X-Act.

I'm surprised about T-tar. Look at all the leads there, does T-tar beat any of them?

3. ### Jahikoi

Joined:
Aug 18, 2007
Messages:
61
Abomasnow
Aerodactyl
Azelf
Bronzong
Heatran
Hippowdon
Infernape
Jirachi
Metagross
Swampert
Tyranitar
(12 Pokemon)

Of all these leads, Alakazam can beat most of them in speed to the taunt, or to reflect/light screen... Makes me wonder why it isn't used so much...
4. ### X-Actnp: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock

Joined:
Feb 17, 2006
Messages:
4,675
I updated the original post with overused leads from January to May.
5. ### blasphemy1

Joined:
Aug 1, 2007
Messages:
3,712
I am a little surprised that Mamoswine isn't seeing more usage on Suspect. Maybe it is because of Bronzong, but he handles the other leads quite well.
6. ### d2m

Joined:
Apr 18, 2009
Messages:
766
As a lead, it loses out to nearly everything. It's a revenge killer, not a lead.
7. ### blasphemy1

Joined:
Aug 1, 2007
Messages:
3,712
Really? A team that abuses Mamoswine's power is going to have a Magnezone, so once you see a Jirachi you can assume it is Scarfed and will Iron Head you. Magnezone can proceed to trap and kill, unless it has U-Turn and isn't choiced. It gets rocks up against Bronzong, beats Metagross without Bullet Punch(those who have it will be finished off by Maggy anyways). It easily beats Tyranitar and Shaymin-S. Deoxys-S beats nearly every other lead if it has the right moves, so I won't even discuss that. So its two worst matchups(Jirachi + Bronzong) are trapped by Magnezone, while its other one isn't stopped by any other lead you would use instead of Mamoswine anyways.

How does it lose out to nearly everything?
8. ### A.P.

Joined:
Jul 14, 2008
Messages:
731
Plus, it can abuse Sash + Endeavor/Ice Shard.
9. ### darkseeker4

Joined:
Nov 24, 2008
Messages:
354
cause aero,the former number one lead and now nuber 2,rapes it + it's so frail it's killed by anything!
10. ### d2m

Joined:
Apr 18, 2009
Messages:
766
It loses to everything as a lead. Aero survives the Ice Shard w/ sash and Stone Edges it to death (or sets up rocks). Jirachi Iron Heads it (This is a lead analysis not a teambuilding analysis, so it's lead on lead, not necessarily team on team, but I agree, Magnezone/Mamoswine is a good core.) Swampert Hydro Pump/Surf/Waterfalls it to death. Metagross MM's it to death. Tyranitar Stone Edges it to death, Azelf can Fire Blast it or set up rocks and Explode as you can't really 2HKO him with Ice Shard. Bronzong sets up rocks and Gyro Balls. Infernape uses Overheat/Fire Blast/Flamethrower. Heatran uses Fire Blast. Hippowdon sets up rocks and outstalls. Abomasnow can hit it with Wood Hammer. Shaymin-S with a sash will survive and Seed Flare it to death.

Of the common leads, it beats Ninjask 100% of the time (but fails to prevent passing +1 speed)...that's it, everyone else has a means of 1-2HKOing it. While it may do damage, it's too powerful as a late game bander/revenge killer to waste it taking massive damage or dying in the lead spot. Believe me, I used Mamoswine as a lead for a while, then I swapped him out for Jirachi and gave him a LO and my life was much simpler.
11. ### blasphemy1

Joined:
Aug 1, 2007
Messages:
3,712
I am talking about Suspect ladder, I specifically stated that in my original post. Why you are bringing up shit like Aerodactyl and Azelf when they aren't even used enough to be considered a "common" lead is beyond me. BTW, typical Mamoswine leads in standard OU run Focus Sash, allowing them to beat Azelf with Avalanche/Stone Edge + Ice Shard, or Endeavor + Ice Shard. Aerodactyl is easily 2HKOed, and either doesn't get rocks up or dies trying to kill Mamoswine(which doesn't OHKO even without Sash).

Shaymin-S I find are typically Scarfed, and even with Sash, Ice Shard 2HKOs and Mamo runs Sash. I already explained his two worst matchups are Jirachi and Bronzong in suspect, and everyone's worst matchup is Deoxys-S anyways(other than Ninjask and a few other non-bulky leads).
12. ### Objection

Joined:
Sep 27, 2008
Messages:
5,695
You know, those leads are listed in alphabetical order, not order of usage.
13. ### SenayanMafia

Joined:
Mar 19, 2009
Messages:
55
Well, Objection has said what I'm going to say, but hey, zam is frail indeed.
14. ### d2m

Joined:
Apr 18, 2009
Messages:
766
If you're using Endeavor/Ice Shard as a gimmick to kill a lead, you're not using him to his full potential, which is my point..

I addressed both Suspect AND OU, neither of which does he make as good a lead as he does either a Choice Bander, LO Revenge Killer, or Expert Belt user.
15. ### Luxormaniac

Joined:
Dec 1, 2008
Messages:
265
I think this list goes to show you that the Empoleon anti-lead (Hydro Pump/Aqua Jet/SR/GK @ Shuca) really deserves more love (in OU), considering that it can beat the majority of leads there, often setting up SR as well.
Also, this list obviously reflects how many inexperienced players are still around, hence Ninjask, Tyranitar, Azelf, and Aerodactyl (which lose to the new up-and-coming bulky leads, such as Metagross, Jirachi, and the like).
In my head I'm trying to mentally compare the OU lead metagame's centralization to OU as a whole. My first instinct is to simply divide the OU pool by six, which means there would be a higher than predicted amount of lead diversity.
16. ### Super Weavile

Joined:
May 12, 2009
Messages:
107

You should totally create a lead-zam set!that'd be epic, i'd use one.
17. ### Objection

Joined:
Sep 27, 2008
Messages:
5,695
Actually I'm surprised to see Abomasnow up there since I did not see a single Abomasnow lead in OU in the last month. Maybe all the players on the other side of the world have Abomasnow leads.

Lead Zam might seem nice in theory, but don't forget that some of the leads on that list sometime carry Choice Scarf.
18. ### -Zer0-

Joined:
Oct 1, 2008
Messages:
358
Yeah Im seein Leadzam working well...Ill try him.
19. ### Staraptor Call

Joined:
Mar 7, 2009
Messages:
1,422
It's not surprising that there's so much lead diversity, because OU leads is the most gimmick-heavy part of the most gimmick-heavy metagame. People specialize their leads in order to beat those twelve, and sometimes use weird NUs like Butterfree as leads.

On offensive teams ScarfLoom is good because it can quickly use Spore to prevent your opponent from getting SR up and can immobilize one Pokemon early. If that Pokemon is something like Hippowdon you could end up taking out a key part of their defenses. If they switch in a Rest-Talker you can often use it as setup fodder.
20. ### HD

Joined:
Jun 29, 2008
Messages:
1,445
Er, how can you set up on tjem if you're running Scarf and your limited to one move and Sleeptalk leads can still attack, so setting up is harder unless the attacks are resisted/immune.
21. ### Xaqwais

Joined:
Dec 25, 2008
Messages:
1,722
Well, RestTalkers only have 2 attacks, so they're a bit easier to counter. Obviously with offensive teams that are based on resists, you are sure to have something.

Who even RestTalks anyway? Only one I've seen recently is Machamp, which was the one I was using :P
22. ### Qzahk

Joined:
Mar 27, 2006
Messages:
319
Lead LO Mamoswine w/SR will beat Aero, T-tar, nonscarf Abomasnow, and Ninjask (Focus Sash jask can't BP against Ice Shard). Metagross, Heatran, Azelf, and Infernape cannot safely Stealth Rock against it (eq and shard will finish them all as a result). Like all Stealth Rockers, it can safely set up rocks against Hippowdon, Swampert, and Bronzong if you predict the opposing SR. It's another decent prediction-oriented lead for offensive teams that like Mamo's revengekilling (especially in suspect but can't fit another lead stealth rocker.
23. ### E-Squared

Joined:
Nov 6, 2006
Messages:
60
starmie/togekiss leads can easily nuter the common leads too. starmie can spin away the rocks and togekiss can set up nasty plot and take 1-2 pokes out before it dies
24. ### Random Pizzaman

Joined:
Jan 13, 2008
Messages:
803
I agree with Qzahk, LO Mamoswine is a fantastic lead and my favorite one. It beats most leads for offensive teams ( Aero, Metagross, Tranny, Tyranitar, Azelf(has to be Stone Edge+ ice Shard, so it's tricky)). Sucks that it loses to Infernape though, and doesnt threaten most stall lead (although it does set up SR vs Hippo and Swampy)
25. ### d2m

Joined:
Apr 18, 2009
Messages:
766
Here we go again. With LO you don't have a sash to fall back on. Here we go:
Assuming 6 HP on Mamoswine:

252 Atk Jolly Aerodactyl Stone Edge: (114.36% - 134.81%)
252 Atk Adamant Metagross Meteor Mash: (136.46% - 161.33%)
252 Atk Adamant Metagross Bullet Punch: (55.25% - 65.19%)
252 SpA Timid Azelf Fire Blast: (84.53% - 100.00%)
52 SpA (minimum for any set) Swampert Surf: (63.54% - 75.14%)
252 Atk Adamant Jirachi Iron Head: (88.40% - 104.97%) <Including Flinch chance it's about 80% of the time an OHKO)
252 Atk Tyranitar Stone Edge: (135.91% - 160.77%)

Getting the jist of this? Sure, he may set up Stealth Rock, hell, he may even take a lead with it or reduce it to nothing, but the point is, You are squandering his potential as a physical sweeper and revenge killer because using him as a lead invariably leaves him with extremely little life. Add in a neutrality to SR meaning with very little life he probably won't swap in.