Probability my ass (Semi-lame Nationals Report)

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So after getting 3rd at Phoenix, I had about a month to decide and breed a new team for Nationals. Being the creative oddball I was, I decided to bring back an old strategy as the focus for my team; ParaFusion. After all, I reasoned that with both effects on at the same time, not only are the opponent's Pokemon now slower than mine (a big plus), but they also have about a 30% chance of not even hitting me due to both effects right? To seal the deal, I also decided to add a fun flinch strategy into the ring as well; another 60% chance to do nothing on top of that can only help right?

So anyways, here's what I came up with:

Giratina @ Lum Berry
Hasty, 252 Spe, 62 SpA, 116 HP, 80 SpD
-Thunder Wave
-Swagger
-Shadow Force
-Draco Meteor

Rotom-C @ Sitrus Berry
Modest, 252 HP, 252 SpA, 6 Spe
-Thunder Wave
-Confuse Ray
-Leaf Storm
-Protect

Togekiss @ Leftovers
Modest, 252 HP, 252 SpA, 6 Spe
-Substitute
-Air Slash
-Aura Sphere
-Thunder Wave

Dunsparce @ Chesto Berry
Brave, 250 HP, 76 Def, 180 SpD, 4 Atk
-Substitute
-Swagger
-Body Slam
-Rock Slide

Alt 1: Blissey @ Chople Berry
Relaxed, 252 Def, 158 HP, 100 SpD
-Substitute
-Swagger
-Rock Slide
-Soft Boiled

Alt 2: Lugia @ Life Orb (more to just have Life Orb available if I wanted it)
Timid, 252 Spe, 252 HP, 6 SpD
-Thunder Wave
-Swagger
-Fly
-Roost

So where to begin...the basic concept would be to initially paralyze both opposing leads with my own, then subsequently next turn slap on confusion. From there, Giratina could Shadow Force and avoid some damage for a turn (or optionally strike out with Draco Meteor for big damage) and Rotom-C could blast away at opposing Water and Ground types. From there, once one of them dies, I bring in a flincher, set up the sub, and proceed to whittle away at them, essentially (at least in theory) locking them down until they eventually were KOed. Both Togekiss and Dunsparce each possess an element of ParaFusion (T-Wave on Kiss and Swagger on Dunsparce respectively) so that when a fresh opposing Pokemon came out, the strategy could continue. Finally, the subs: Blissey was meant as a pure SpD wall alternative to Dunsparce (and though possessing probably the weakest Rock Slide in existence, still had a nice 60% flinch rate on both opposing Pokemon due to Serene Grace) and Lugia was a more sturdier alternative to Rotom-C (who from initial calcs I found to be a bit frail, but not as frail as I imagined it ended up being >.>).

Friday, June 25th:

I opted to come in late-night, as it happened to be the cheapest flight. Unfortunately, that also meant getting in at 1am, so after that and paying a nasty $25 to take a taxi to the hotel, I get myself situated and finish off my team. I end up deciding to forgo the TCG Nats that I originally thought of competing in for fun, which I don't regret; while the VGC had what, some 70? people out there, the TCG in comparison had over 700! people competing in just the Masters division alone...not to mention you need to get top 4 for the free trip to Worlds for it. I still end up going on over to see the mess for myself, meet up with some local AZ people that wish me good luck, picked up my $300 travel voucher (which didn't even cover the flight...) and did a bit of light shopping at the vendors. Fun stuff.

Saturday, June 26th:

I end up arriving about an hour early, so I sorta sat there on the bench half-dozing. Registration opens at 8am, I promptly enter and sign up, grabbing a rather nice t-shirt in the process. Stand on the sidelines, chatted with Xerograde for a bit, and we both wish each other good luck (though he had the odd feeling we'd be facing each other again lol).

So anyways, onto the rounds; note I don't remember 90% of names from 7 rounds, so forgive me if I didn't name you in person. Also didn't remember the teams exactly, but eh, I try my best with my limited memory capacity:

R1: vs Groudon, Tangrowth...something something

So, the first big test, and of course I get the lucky draw of facing something immune to paralysis. Anyways, we trade back and forth blows, myself eventually paralyzing all of his team (Groudon as well due to Dunsparce's Body Slam), and time is called with me up 3-1. It's also here I discover 20 minute fights really REALLY suck for this team; I knew they were running swiss, but I didn't know they'd be imposing a rather restrictive time limit to matches; in comparison, TCG matches run a min of 40 minutes, with a few more for sudden death if tied on prizes. Sigh...

1-0

R2: vs Bluecookies (not mentioning team yet, as he's in top 16)

Hey, I get to meet someone from online! :D

Anyways, all I can say is that this is where I discover fatal flaw 1 with my team: that the probability of something happening will never happen if I'm battling; he makes it through the parafusion and less than 30% chance of hitting me and pretty much polishes off my team. Maybe I should have stuck with Persian...

1-1

R3: vs Jayque with Kyogre, Dusknoir, Snorlax, Lapras

Scroll on down a few posts to read the log, he remembers it a lot better than I do lol.

1-2

R4: vs ??? with standard Ogre/top/Aboma/something or another

A bit dishearten at being down 1-2 already, I decide to try subbing in Lugia for Rotom to see if it yielded any different results...and of course, the one battle where Rotom would have been at his strongest ends up with him being AWOL >.>. So without my valuable Leaf Storm to ward off Ogre, he pretty much rolls over me with Blizzard.

1-3

R5: vs Xerograde with Dusknoir, Giratina, Blissey, Palkia

So by now I'm fairly pissed at myself, and I decide to ditch Dunsparce for Blissey, as I had a feeling even Blissey couldn't do any worse. I am also saddened to see Xerograde here; I know he got off to a better start than I did, and his team was pretty cool as well. Though it was pretty funny that he somehow forsaw us rematching...just wish it was under happier circumstances. He used a Toxic-stall approach (or at least that's what it seemed like to me), so it was a fun rematch of the Phoenix VGC semi-finals here. Eventually, I wear him down more and end up getting the win as time is called 3-1 and thus avenging my loss a month ago. I also realized fatal flaw 3 with this team; it just wasn't doing enough damage >.>

2-3

R6: vs ??? with Ogre, top...uh, something else in there too

So just to get embarrassed more, our fight gets put on the big screen for spectators to watch (boo). Anyways, this is literally the only battle where parafusion actually works and I end up winning like 2-0 or something. Even then, it almost came down to time...damn timer.

3-3

R7: vs ??? (sorry, forgot your smogon name) with Palkia, Infernape, Ogre, Croak

Well, I knew odds were that neither of us would make it regardless of a win (from my fun experience in TCG swiss rounds, those who end up fighting from the bottom up never make it in due to that wonderful ideology of opponent's win percentage and opponent's opponent's win percentage), and it didn't really matter as she ended up steamrolling over me, though it was amusing to see Rotom spam Protect for 6 rounds while she failed to KO it during them. Didn't hurt that she was pretty cute as well :D

3-4

So yeah, that's pretty much it. Hooked up with Imawario and got some very needed Uxie cards for my Regigigas deck (to which I am now indebted to him forever lol), went over and played a few TCG games at the mini-league going on, then headed on back to the hotel. Definitely had time to look and see what went wrong; mainly, besides parafusion and flinch not working worth a damn (though that wasn't the whole cause), the team itself was physically weak, and not capable of carrying out enough damage to actually KO threats. The time limit didn't help either...but yeah, if I could do things differently, I would firstly beg for Skymin usage, then pretty much revamp the concept from pure lockdown; ditch Lugia and Dunsparce (Blissey ended up being far more solid, and it was pretty damn funny seeing it use Rock Slide) for more sweeper-oriented Pokemon, like Palkia/ScarfOgre and something physical-oriented, like a Metagross or something with Fake Out. Don't plan on coming out tomorrow, events are only running till 3pm and having to drop some $30 a day to get there and back puts a big strain on my wallet. I am disappointed at myself, as I knew I could have done better if I'd ran something more...standard I guess. Oh well...there's always next year right? Another year, another Regional, and hopefully onto another Nationals and maybe even Worlds.

Props:
-Imawario, for being pure awesomeness, despite going 3-4 as well :(
Next year we'll take Nationals and Worlds right?
-Bluecookies, was nice to meet ya! Hope you beat whoever you get in top 16 for that trip to Hawaii
-PBB: Didn't see ya there (though I saw from pics you were somewhere), but you helped quite a bit with the team, for which I am thankful
-PUI, for putting on a great event. It was my first Nationals, and definitely was an enjoyable experience for the most part.

Slops:
-Rotom-C, for being pretty damn useless. So much for being a sturdy tank
>.>
-Lugia, for being almost as worthless; next time, I'm going with sweeper Lugia
-ParaFusion giving about a 30% chance of the opponent to do nothing, my fucking ass
-Flinch, much as the same reasons as above. Seriously, how the hell do they jump through 3 hoops to still attack?
-PUI, why the hell couldn't you do VGCs back before?
 
That sucks dude. Imo you should go buy a lottery ticket. Beating the odds like you did, you're bound to win something. Sorry things did not work out. Better luck next year!
 
You have a good point...I must buy some when I get back!

Then I'll be able to fly out to Worlds for the LCQ XD
 
You have a good point...I must buy some when I get back!

Then I'll be able to fly out to Worlds for the LCQ XD
Haha, I agree with you! Perfect reasoning! If only I was the legal age to buy Lottery Tickets! Then I'll hope my luck that the 10% chance of Blizzard freezing one of my pokemon happening ruining my chances of getting to Nationals! I just rewatched my battle video again and saw how my smart switch turned lethal on me.
 
I can help you out with round 3. I actually recorded the match when we were done. No Ho-oh on my team, btw. Not sure who you fought that crit'd your rotom turn 1 with Sacred fire ... but wasn't me.

team was kyogre, dusknoir, snorlax, and lapras (I might post some details in a separate post on the team)

Turn 1:

Drizzle makes it rain

Rotom (Shinryu) protected
Kyogre (Jayque) protected
Giratina (Shinryu) Thunderwave'd Kyogre - failed due to protect
Dusknoir (Jayque) Trick Room

Turn 2:

Dusknoir (Jayque) toxic Giratina
Lum Berry cures poison
Kyogre (Jayque) water spout - ~30% damage Giratina - Rotom to the deep red
Rotom (Shinryu) Leaf Storm Kygore - ~55% damage
Giratina (Shinryu) Thunderwave Dusknoir

Turn 3:

Rotom (Shinryu) protects
Dusknoir (Jayque)Toxic Giratina - misses
Kyogre (Jayque) spout - Giratina hovering just over half life
Giratina (Shinryu) - Thunderwave Kyogre

Turn 4:

Dusknoir (Jayque) Toxic Giratina - misses
Kyogre (Jayque) waterspout - kills Rotom, Giratina in the orange
Giratina (Shinryu) Swaggered Dusknoir

Turn 5:

Shinryu sends out Dunsparce

Kyogre (Jayque) protects
Dusknoir (Jayque) Earthquake - Crits on Dunsparce in orange - regains life with sitrus, Giratina in red
Dunsparce (Shinryu) Substitute
Giratina (Shinryu) Swagger on Ogre fails due to protect

Dimensions return to normal

Turn 6:

Giratina (Shinryu) shadow force (vanishes)
Dunsparce (shinryus) rockslide Kyogre maybe 25% life left, dusknoir ~10% damage
Kyogre (Jayque) Surf - breaks sub on dunsparce, takes half Dusknoir's life
Dusknoir (Jayque) goes for trick room - but flinches

Turn 7:

(Jayque) Switch in Snorlax for Dusknoir
Giratina (Shinryu) Shadowforce - kills Kyogre
Dunsparce (Shinryu) Substitute

Turn 8:

Jayque sends in Lapras

Lapras (Jayque) Protect
Giratina (Shinryu) Thunderwave Lapras - fails due to protect
Dunsparce (Shinryu) Rock slide, ~10% damage to Snorlax
Snorlax (Jayque) Flinches

Turn 9:

Giratina (Shinryu) Thunderwave Lapras
Lapras (Jayque) Hail
Dunsparce (Shinryu) Rockslide ~10% Snorlax, ~10% Lapras
Snorlax (Jayque) Flinches

Hail pings all but lapras

Turn 10:

Lapras (Jayque) protects
Giratina (Shinryu) Draco Meteor fails to protect
Dunsparce (Shinryu) Body Slam Snorlax
Snorlax (Jayque) Crunch Giratina - Kills it

Hail kills dunsparce, pings snorlax

Turn 11:

(Shinryu) Togekiss sent out

Snorlax (Jayque) protects
Togekiss (Shinryu) Aurasphere fails to protect
Lapras (Jayque) sheer cold fails

Hail pings Snorlax and Togekiss

Turn 12:

Lapras (Jayque) protect fails due to paralyze
Togekiss (Shinryus) aurasphere, weakened by Chople, Snorlax to red
Snorlax (Jayque) Self-Destructs, kills everything.

With Dusknoir in reserve, Jayque wins.
 
Alrighty thank you, I'll edit that. Must've been another opponent that critted me with a Ho-Oh...I don't honestly remember which round, must've been another.
 

JRank

Jonny
is a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnus
Jayque, are you the guy I battled R6 who was running mono-water rainroom? You said you didn't post very much. I remember your team being Ogre-Palkia?-Lapras-Swampert. I had Aboma-Weavile-Palkia (I think)-Hitmontop.
 
Oh yeah, I just used a calculator to see the actual probability of Parafusion not working. With the flinch it was 15%, without it was 37.5%. Still pretty bad odds, but without the flinch it isn't terrible. It is a higher chance than Blizzard or Thunder missing outside of any weather effects.
 
Jayque, are you the guy I battled R6 who was running mono-water rainroom? You said you didn't post very much. I remember your team being Ogre-Palkia?-Lapras-Swampert. I had Aboma-Weavile-Palkia (I think)-Hitmontop.
Nope, wasn't me. I was running a trickroom team - and battled Enfuego rd. 6.
 
I was your final opponent :p As soon as I saw parafusion part of me died inside because I was being wrecked with bad luck all day (Hooray for getting REALLY sick
) Your rotom would not die e.e It was a very fun match though and you used togekiss who is one of my favorites
It's so adorable! (totally not copied from SB >.>)
 
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