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RNG NOC: GAME OVER

Discussion in 'Circus Maximus' started by shinyskarmory, May 7, 2013.

  1. yoshinite

    yoshinite

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    Oh lol :P
  2. Eagle4

    Eagle4

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    It's pretty hard to garner any information from our mislynch on CBT simply because he didn't post much. The votes for him are hard to get a read on because they were justified, although there is a likelihood of mafia involvement with the lynch.

    To sum cbt up:

    1) Yoshinite is mafia
    2) Blackhawk11 could be mafia
    3) theangryscientist could be mafia

    And that's about it. Whilst this doesn't mean that Yoshinite is mafia or anything like that, at least we know that what he thinks is genuine.

    We can get a bit more information from Woodchuck's death. From his posts he thinks that:

    1) yoshinite is mafia

    Oh..er..that's it. Okay then, so both the people who died think yoshinite is scum, so there's a possibility that Yoshinite killed woodchuck so that there would be less people suspecting him (although yoshinite didn't target cbt). I don't really think that yoshinite would do that though because he would know that it would draw more attention to himself. Nevertheless, the two people who thought that yoshinite was scum are now dead, and also my read on him:

    means that I still find him scummy, but not enough to vote for him as a lynch vote.

    What's strange is the fact that Aura Guardian wasn't killed, as he's been the one who's posting a lot, is experienced, and who a lot of people see as a townie. He should be dead really, unless mafia knew about Woodchuck having a power role, but I don't see how they would. Right now I'm gonna FoS Aura Guardian
  3. Celever

    Celever

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    Oh thanks. That's a pretty handy role to have!

    Shame he died...
  4. Celever

    Celever

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    This post alone makes me very reluctant to give yoshinite a mafia tag. I mean, unless he is being kinda stupid, which generally yoshinite is not, he would not out-right shout why he is now a target. He could be being very clever, but I doubt he is mafia by now.

    Although the next post he makes on other people who would want woodchuck dead could determine whether he gets lynched, or lots of FoS' that later lead to lynches etc. etc.

    No pressure.
  5. Obbmud99

    Obbmud99

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    Honestly I am not sure why Metal Sonic didn't get axed. He kept saying how he had the "Power" role of the game, but if he did, why wouldn't they have gone after him? It's clear that even if he got a bodyguard, he wasn't targeted, unless the mafia has 2 kills, which I doubt due to power balance issues. Either he's in on it, or somehow, Woodchuck needed to go first.

    FOS MetalSonic

    If Woodchuck was wanted dead, there are two reasons that I see. Either he was wanted because he was going to find out who the mafia is, or he is hated by one of the other players.
    Following option B, because Eagle4 already followed option A, Gronkasaurus Rex went after him in two of his posts. In the first, he said that Woodchuck was making irrelevant posts, states how nobody targeted him, and lynch votes him. Then when Woodchuck tells him that if he was mafia, he would have bandwagon-ed MetalSonic, then Gronkasaurus Rex backs off. His posts that were longer tried to make people look scummy. I know that I am making a "false dichotomy" over this, but I like to point out more than one possibility. Let's see Gronkasaurus Rex's opinion on this, because I think the innosent before proven guilty is a good way to go. Let's see what you have to say Rexy.

    FOS Gronkasaurus Rex
  6. Aura Guardian

    Aura Guardian

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    [Reminds self: this is a game full of newbies, not experts. This is NOT atrocious logic...] Obbmud, I can think of many reasons why MS wasn't axed. One, despite being a power role, the mafia views him as a minor threat. Two, he kept asking for bodyguard protection, so the mafia probably assumed he had it and that a kill would thus be wasted. Three, the mafia feared a watcher role and didn't want to risk it. Four, the mafia figures on trying to hang him later. Five, the mafia does not have good tactics - such as if all experienced players were village. Six, huge mind game, which would arise if the mafia has an experienced player. Seven, they wanted to get rid of someone who was a bigger threat, though that is similar to reason one. Even more reasons exist, but they're beyond the realm of plausible for a beginner game, I feel.

    I also see Eagle's FoS'ed me because I should be dead, but some of those reasons I gave here also apply to why the mafia wouldn't kill me (kill me later, bigger threat, fear of a watcher nametargeting me, just bad tactics, or lynch me later).
    Option three, he was randed or the mafia figured out from his playstyle or SOMETHING that he had decent odds of being a power role.
  7. Metal Sonic

    Metal Sonic Turn it up!
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    Was a Bodyguard not on me??

    What the hull!!!
  8. Metal Sonic

    Metal Sonic Turn it up!
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    There is a M'effin Mafia Roleblocker. Iirc, if there was a BG on me, they should have gone first to protect me from the sucker.


    ANY OTHER PRS WHO WERE ON ME(EXAMPLE:WATCHER) PLEASE TELL US IF YOU HAVE ANY INFO THANKS
  9. Blackhawk11

    Blackhawk11 one on one

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    Ok so I went back and summarized all of Woodchucks posts and the posts about woodchuck.

    my simple list of notes (open)
    Post numbers come first followed by a summary of that post. if the post number starts with 'w' (like "w#..") that means it's a woodchuck post, numbers without 'w' are made by others
    Also I should note that I searched the thread by ctrl-f-ing for "woodchuck" so if anyone posted about him without using his full username then there's a chance that I missed it.
    Code:
    #36 obbmud lists WC as not posted
    w#40 FoS Metal Sonic, little reasoning
    w#50/51 jokes
    w#57 suspicious of MS
    #78 g.Rex votes for WC, brings up lack of substance in posts, defends metal sonic?
    w#80/81 defends self, continues suspicion of MS. Says Cereza looks pretty clean, slightly questioning of G.Rex's methods
    w#87 decides that MS is too difficult to read. un-fos
    w#89 pretty decent joke
    #90 I point out that WC singles out Cereza as being good, possibly could be mafia
    #92 G.Rex unvotes WC, asks him questions.
    w#96 responds to #92: retracts (kinda) cleanliness of cereza, no call on LW, thinks I'm pretty townish
    w#125 bandwagons CBT to aid in pressure
    #131 AG describes him as leaning town, could go either way
    w#168 summarizes yoshinite's activity as "very little substance," wants him to post better, believes he may be trying to lay low
    w#169 changes CBT lynch to fos, lynches yoshinite
    #188 AG agrees with WC on yoshinite
    w#193 [incorrectly] calls me out for not addressing yoshinite at all
    #195 obbmud reads that WC is village
    #198 yoshinite reads WC as maybe town
    #214 Eagle reads him as strong town
    w#221 reiterates that he thinks that yoshinite is a better lynch target than CBT
    #222 MS claims the opposite of what WC just did


    I think that the biggest piece of information that we're going to get from deaths is what other people thought of them, so that's why I included that. Here's a summary:
    - Gronkasaurus Rex voted for Woodchuck based on lack of substance in posts, removed his vote 14 posts later
    - I thought that Woodchuck could possibly be mafia based on statement about Cereza, but wasn't very suspicious
    - Aura_Guardian read him as "leaning town" but could go either way, agreed with his logic
    - obbmud read him as "village"
    - yoshinite read him as "maybe town"
    - Eagle4 read him as "strong town"

    So Gronkasaurus Rex and I each thought that Woodchuck could be mafia, but neither of us felt very strongly about it. Obviously these could come from mafians trying to cast suspicion on Woodchuck, but I know that mine wasn't. G.Rex's was a bit more forceful and might have been trying to divert attention from Metal Sonic, but that would imply that the two of them are on a team, which is a somewhat large assumption to do anything with beyond pointing it out.
    Then, later in the phase, he gets four reads of village. Maybe one (or more) of those village reads were meant to clean a mafia player. X player makes a village read, Woodchuck flips village, X player points out he was right, nobody suspects him of mafia. I know that is a little farfectched, but who knows, maybe it could happen and it's at least something to think about.

    Now, for what Woodchuck's thoughts and suspicions were:
    - Originally supsicious of Metal_Sonic, later decides that he's too difficult to read
    - Questions Gronkasaurus Rex's methods and is slightly suspicious of him, but not too much (for some reason I thought he felt a bit more stronly, but my notes don't seem to show that)
    - Says that Cereza could be good based on her posts, later decides that his thought overlooked several factors and sort of retracts the read by doing so
    - Bandwagons CBT, wants him to post more
    - Decides that yoshinite is the most suspicious, changes his vote to him. Wants him to post better

    Obviously, Woodchuck was the most suspicious of yoshinite, especially late in the game, and I don't think that this can be ignored. I think that at this very moment our best target is yoshinite, so let's get him talking.
    FoS yoshinite

    So, why did Woodchuck die?
    - Random
    - The mafia knew he had a power role
    - He had a very strong village read, and the mafia was scared of that
    - He was suspicious of one of the mafia members

    My first thought is it was a random. I doubt that anyone knew that he had a power role. The third option could have been why he was chosen for the random. The last one might be legit, so I don't think we should rule out the possibility of yoshinite, Metal_Sonic, or Gronkasaurus Rex being mafia.

    So that's my analysis of Woodchuck's legacy on this game. If someone wants to summarize CBT and what people thought of him, that'd be cool. If no one has done it by tonight, I'll do it. I think I'm gonna have some free time around 7:45-9:00 est.

    My own quick comment: MS, what do you mean by your last post? From what I know about bodyguards, they only protect from kills.
  10. Gronkasaurus Rex

    Gronkasaurus Rex

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    Ok on my phone again hi.

    Celever's #254 is interesting, in the sense that it makes me view yoshinite as less scummy and I didn't think that quite a few of his posts had been like that.

    Also no one is talking about the cbterakkion flip, which I might do later when it's not four am = S

    Regarding woodchucks death; there are many possibilities but I don't think it useless to look at them. I think it does make yoshinite look scummier (although as I said before and as celever pointed out his posts have been interesting) and a couple others (like metal sonic and me) look a bit scummier simply because woodchuck suspected us. Also metal sonic might not actually be a power role? Or the mafia doesn't think he is?
    Also @obbmud99 i didn't hate woodchuck = (. I pressured him because I thought he was scummy and then left him alone cause I didn't think he was scummy. Obviously it's not as simple as that but yeah.

    Anyway I am going to follow up on my vote theangryscientist
    His vote on cb was apparently meant to get cb to talk and I don't think he really justified it beyond that to any degree.

    Bah I will post later today when I have a greater level of coherency. Bye
  11. Celever

    Celever

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    I just thought I would point it out. As yoshinite is the main target right now, every line of defense he posts needs to be noted. Which, come to think of it, still hasn't come. Where is your post on who else would want woodchuck dead, yoshinite?

    Also I will summarize cbt, I'll do it not but it'll take forever so...
  12. Aura Guardian

    Aura Guardian

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    You're thinking of a Safeguard, or SG. Also, since we had a tracker, I'm not too sure we'd have a watcher to go with.
  13. Celever

    Celever

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    (No need to put this in hide tags, he did too little! :P)
    Cbt does:
    Nothing
    Barely anything:
    Finally posts... as a bandwagon FoS. #74
    Says he is a john, and bandwagons onto Gronk with a lynch while re-FoS'ing Metal Sonic. #120 (46 posts... I know...)
    CBT says he doesn't know what to post about #145
    CBT exclaims he feels little to no pressure. Lynches yoshinite as a bandwagon and FoS' blackhawk as a bandwagon #176
    Evades questions while saying he is not evading them #207
    States he votses on own desire. Has no idea who anyone else in rolewise #212 (That's why you take part in this game and don't just bandwagon)
    CBT forgets who he FoS'd and FoS' tas #235

    Cbt gets done to:
    Show Hide
    Theangryscientist FoS' CBT #33
    Celever (IDK, easier to take note of) FoS' CBT #59
    Obbmud talks about why CBT should be FoS'd and does so#63
    Blackhawk exclaims it is nice of CBT to come and asks what kept him. #76
    Celever un-FoS' CBT #83
    Woodchuck wants more from CBT #96
    Eagle4 lynches CBT #104
    Aura Guardian lynches CBT #110
    Aura Guardian lynches CBT again due to votes resetting #117
    Eagle4 lynches CBT again #121
    Yoshinite lynches CBT again with some backed-up logic #122
    Aura guardian posts being very adamant about CBT getting to L-3 since he wants him to talk #123
    Woodchuck lynches CBT #125
    Blackhawk lynches CBT #126
    Yoshinite un-lynches CBT but FoS' him #130
    Aura guardian exclaims about how CBT was viewing the thread but didn't post and wants an explanation (wants because he still hasn't given one :P) #143
    Obbmud says not enough information is there about him #153
    Eagle4 lists CBT as possible scum #154
    Woodchuck unlynches but FoS' CBT #169
    I lynch CBT #174
    Gronkosaurus says CBT's posts sound genuine #180
    Yoshinite explains that it is hard to read CBT when he has like 3 posts, and his posts make sense #198
    Metal sonic lynches CBT #201
    Lightwolf UnFos' CBT #204
    I question CBT #205
    I remark that CBT has been looking at the thread for a long time and then left, meaning he is evading those questions #206
    I make a big and in my opinion pretty good post on why CBT is mafia (he isn't, but it was justified right?) #209
    I counter CBT again #213
    Eagle agrees with everything I said about CBT #214
    Aura Guardian FoS' CBT #215
    tas is leaning towards mafia with CBT #216
    Metal sonic lynches CBT #217
    Aura Guardian lynches CBT #241


    CBT DIES!!! (yay!)
  14. yoshinite

    yoshinite

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    (If there is no clear benefit then will just post "no"
    Also, Woodchuck's death could possibly be orchestrated by a pun-hater.
    List of people that would benefit from Woodchuck's death
    AG: No
    Blackhawk11: Called him out on getting people to post but not posting substantially himself. Later he said he was leaning town though.
    Cereza: He was suspicious of her a little, but that died down.
    Celever: No
    Eagle4: No
    Fire Blast: No
    Gronkosaurus Rex: No
    Lightwolf No
    Metal Sonic: Woodchuck was almost sure that Metal Sonic was mafia at the beggining, but that ended as the game went by and he thought he was noob town. Metal Sonic (if he was mafia) could be afraid that it would resurface.
    Obbmudd96: Woodchuck kind of thought he was trying to take over the villlage, but meh.
    tas: No
    Yoshinite: Yoshinite is probably the person that would benefit most from woodchuck's death. Besides CBT, he was the only other person that lynched him. He had several posts right before his death pointing out how he thought Yoshinite seemed very scummy.
    fuk

    Judging from this information (as I know I'm noob town), I choose either A: Random or E: Someone hates puns on a very personal level.

    I may review who doesn't like puns later.
  15. theangryscientist

    theangryscientist

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    i need to be subbed out
  16. Obbmud99

    Obbmud99

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    Is this a typo or are you spiting me?
  17. yoshinite

    yoshinite

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    It's a typo -_-
  18. Metal Sonic

    Metal Sonic Turn it up!
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    some scumbag roleblocked me
  19. Blackhawk11

    Blackhawk11 one on one

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    Alright, if MS is telling the truth, then we've learned that the mafia probably has a role-blocker, which is why they didn't kill MS and instead could target someone "random". If we have a village safeguard, you may want to consider targetting MS, however, that could affect the BG on him(if it was/will be on him). I'm not sure exactly what to do, and I guess it would be a mind game. I'm still a bit suspicious of MS though.

    MS: Who are you most suspicious of right now as being mafia. Alternatively, if you don't have any strong mafia reads, who is your strongest village read?
  20. Aura Guardian

    Aura Guardian

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    Having a little trouble thinking, but it is also plausible the mafia would just double up the roleblock and the kill on MS, thus either SG and MS are wasted, or the ... wait, losing the kill would be a problem for the mafia, so never mind there. If the SG blocks them once though, they might do it just to be sure.

    Metal Sonic, was there flavor for how you were hooked?
  21. shinyskarmory

    shinyskarmory

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    I would have posted this vote count sooner, but there's not really much voting going on...

    Vote Count 2.1 (aka the "If you want to save your friends, you'll have to do what I want for a while!" vote count)

    Lynch Votes

    theangryscientist (1): Gronkasaurus Rex

    Not Voting (11): Aura Guardian, blackhawk11, celever, Cereza, Eagle4, Fire Blast, LightWolf, Metal Sonic, Obbmud99, theangryscientist, yoshinite

    Since there are 12 players, majority is 7 votes.

    FoS count:


    Aura Guardian (1): Eagle4
    Metal Sonic (1): Obbmud99
    Gronkasaurus Rex(1): Obbmud99
    Yoshinite (1): blackhawk11

    Not under suspicion: blackhawk11, celever, Cereza, Eagle4, Fire Blast, LightWolf, Obbmud99, theangryscientist

    Deadline is at 2:00 PM EST (GMT-5) on May 26th (118 hours away).

    theangryscientist will be subbed out upon request ASAP, you may continue playing in the meantime.
  22. Eagle4

    Eagle4

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    If you insist.

    Lynch Obbmud99

    For my reasoning here which Obbmud99 made no attempt to reply to:

    Ima go

    UnFoS Aura Guardian

    Fos LightWolf

    See this as a pressure FoS, you're an experienced player who's blatantly idling, and I know that this mafia game isn't a priority for you, but you have to start contributing because you're vital for the village (if you are a townie, that is).
  23. LightWolf

    LightWolf lightwoof
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    I'm a bit busy right now, and when I'm done I'm going to sleep but I swear I will post after I wake up and eat.
  24. Metal Sonic

    Metal Sonic Turn it up!
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    By Metal Sonic decree

    Obbmud is a town-aligned player


    I put my Metal Sonic check over here

    [​IMG]
    Obbmud town!



    EDIT: made my stamp a lot smaller
  25. Metal Sonic

    Metal Sonic Turn it up!
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    "You have been kidnapped this night, therefore causing your night action to fail. Thus, [snip]"

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