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Announcement Smogon Usage-Based Tier Update: August 2015

Discussion in 'Smogon Metagames' started by Antar, Aug 2, 2015.

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  1. omastar

    omastar

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    idk if you realise this but mons cant rise more than 1 tier at a time, like if seaking suddenly got 60% ou usage it still wouldnt rise anywhere if it didnt have enough nu usage, same goes with amoonguss not having enough uu usage to rise there so it could rise to ou
  2. Ununhexium

    Ununhexium dog
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    Lopunny
    Karxrida, Kris and thesecondbest like this.
  3. Da Pizza Man

    Da Pizza Man

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    Thats not how it works, a mon can't drop more than 1 tier at a time, but it can definitely rise more than one. A mon can easily move to PU to OU (This almost happened with Altaria when ORAS was released) in just one tier shift, because they had enough usage in OU in order to be OU, doesn't matter how much usage it has in UU, RU, or NU
    Swede and thesecondbest like this.
  4. Martin

    Martin Like the hole in a doughnut
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    Can't something drop more than one tier immediately if they rose multiple tiers in one shift and then dropped (for example, if - say - Lop were to stop getting usage in OU, it'd go straight to PU because that is where it shifted from)? I swear that's how it works, or am I misremembering?
  5. MegaFlareon

    MegaFlareon

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    That's what happened to Pidgeot. Though I think that if a Pokemon drops for the first time, it would drop one tier at a time but when is rises again then drops again, that's where quickdrops happen.
    Talpr0ne likes this.
  6. thesecondbest

    thesecondbest Just Kidding I'm First

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    I think that only works with bans, not with normal rises and drops. Which is why auto drop happened to Venomoth although then it got banned from ru.
  7. Funbot28

    Funbot28 Breaking hearts since '09
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    Is Bof Stall really that popular that Amoonguss is rising to OU?

    Sylveon and Conkeldurr would be nice additions to UU. CM Sylv would probably outclass Florges, due to more power in Pixilate Hyper Voices and nice coverage options, although Florges has immediate recovery in Synthesis. Cleric Sylveon may also work with Wish and Heal Bell, again like Florges does already. AV Conkeldurr would be a nice check to Hydreigon and Crocune due to Guts, LO Sheer Force would probably outclass that set however.

    Primeape would be great in PU, kinda reminding me of Sawk in NU. I can see Scarf becoming popular, but CB would wreck stuff because of it's nice coverage, which unlike Sawk, has momentum. Cryogonal would be a nice new hazard remover in PU, but it is still weak to SR so... Bouffalant would be powerful with SD and Reckless Head Charge, but still think Ursaring would be better. I think Pawniard would be broken in PU, thanks to Defiant and Knock Off spam being so dangerous in this tier.

    Edit: Was also surprised not to see Zapdos and Celebi drop to UU
  8. Bluemargay

    Bluemargay

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    Sylveon won't stay in UU. It seems like it would just hit too hard
  9. Tymano

    Tymano

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    It's pretty likely that Sylveon will stay UU, it is quite slow and gets countered by every special wall ever.
  10. Da Pizza Man

    Da Pizza Man

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    Yeah because Calm Mind and Specs Sylveon totally don't run Psyshock
    MrAldo likes this.
  11. LeoLancaster

    LeoLancaster We played hide and seek in waterfalls
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    calcs (open)
    bulky steels/poisons (open)
    mega aggron (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 240 SpD Mega Aggron: 129-152 (37.5 - 44.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Mega Aggron: 116-137 (33.7 - 39.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock
    escavalier (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 248 HP / 204 SpD Escavalier: 111-131 (32.3 - 38.1%) -- 97.1% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
    empoleon (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 248 HP / 252+ SpD Empoleon: 99-117 (26.6 - 31.5%) -- 93.2% chance to 4HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
    0 SpA Empoleon Flash Cannon vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Sylveon: 152-180 (38.5 - 45.6%) -- 10.2% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
    doublade (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 240 HP / 16 SpD Eviolite Doublade: 159-188 (49.8 - 58.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
    bronzong (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Bronzong: 123-144 (36.3 - 42.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Bronzong: 90-107 (26.6 - 31.6%) -- 91.8% chance to 4HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
    0 Atk Bronzong Gyro Ball (62 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Sylveon: 174-206 (44.1 - 52.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
    nidoqueen (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 128 HP / 0 SpD Nidoqueen: 160-189 (45.3 - 53.5%) -- 91.4% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Sylveon Psyshock vs. 128 HP / 0 Def Nidoqueen: 288-340 (81.5 - 96.3%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Nidoqueen: 160-189 (41.7 - 49.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Black Sludge recovery
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Sylveon Psyshock vs. 248 HP / 240+ Def Nidoqueen: 204-240 (53.2 - 62.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Black Sludge recovery
    252+ SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Nidoqueen Sludge Wave vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Sylveon: 322-382 (81.7 - 96.9%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
    roserade (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 240 HP / 252+ SpD Roserade: 97-115 (30.2 - 35.8%) -- 40.9% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Black Sludge recovery
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Sylveon Psyshock vs. 240 HP / 0 Def Roserade: 362-428 (112.7 - 133.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
    0 SpA Roserade Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Sylveon: 188-224 (47.7 - 56.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
    other special walls (open)
    florges (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 24+ SpD Florges: 172-204 (47.7 - 56.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
    blissey (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Blissey: 216-255 (30.2 - 35.7%) -- 36.1% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Sylveon Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Blissey: 232-273 (32.4 - 38.2%) -- 97.9% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
    snorlax (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 144 HP / 176+ SpD Snorlax: 201-237 (40.4 - 47.6%) -- 3.1% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
    porygon2 (open)
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 140 SpD Eviolite Porygon2: 169-199 (45.1 - 53.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
    252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Eviolite Porygon2: 139-165 (37.1 - 44.1%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock

    Specs Sylveon will be massively threatening in UU. Hyper voice at least 2HKOes everything except bulky steels/poisons and the bulkiest of special walls, as shown above. Further, there are few particularly great answers. Most of the bulky steels/poisons can only switch in once due to being 3HKOed and lacking reliable recovery (or 2HKOed and outspeeding in the case of Nidoqueen), while the ones that avoid the 3HKO (emp/zong/rose) can't OHKO back. Porygon2 can barely avoid the 3HKO by running an otherwise suboptimal spread, but can't take even the tiniest of chip damage or it runs serious risk of being 2HKOed. Blissey is the only thing that can switch in multiple times on its own, and that only fits on very defensive teams.

    However, this all is somewhat alleviated by how often these bulky steels are paired with Wishpassers; ironically enough, most likely with cleric Sylveon. Checking it offensively is easier thanks to its low speed and how offensive teams easily carry at least one thing that can OHKO (and possibly hard switch in once on Hyper Voice), such as Entei, Nidoqeen, Mamoswine, Cobalion, and Mega Beedrill. However, there are still plenty of things Sylveon can tank a hit from on offensive teams, meaning it should usually get at least one kill.

    I'm not saying it's going to be broken, but it's certainly going to be really damn good.
  12. Machi

    Machi

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    Rising and dropping are just two different things altogether because of the way the stats are calculated. Simply put, there are no direct calculations on OU or UU that would lead to an immediate drop to NU or PU. Since unlike rising the lowest tier is not the tier in priority, whereas the same cannot be said of rises with the highest tier being the priority.

    A good example of this happened with Mawile, who still had to go through the whole song and dance of the tiering process after the mega stone was banned.
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2015
  13. AOPSUser

    AOPSUser

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    It actually can, but only if said Pokemon ascended to the tier it was dropping from by skipping tiers in between. In that case, it would skip those tiers coming back down. See: Gallade, Pidgeot

    Also: only in gen VI tiering do we see a mon on the verge of both going to OU and PU at once. This should be interesting.

    At least Hitmonchan doesn't look like it's ever going back to RU.
  14. Funbot28

    Funbot28 Breaking hearts since '09
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    So I just want to clarify, are mega's gonna be tiered separately this tier shift? or are we waiting for Pokemon Z to come out?
  15. thesecondbest

    thesecondbest Just Kidding I'm First

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  16. Freeroamer

    Freeroamer The greatest story of them all.

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    idk why the common misconception is that "bof"(lol is it really called this) stall is the only reason for the amoong rise, in comparison to Quagsire / Chans / Goth it's actually quite splashable in being able to check a few threats, being a solid keld check now that subcm rage died is really nice, as well as being a cool option on sand to deal with non-bd azu and breloom. It isn't the best mon in the world but it only rising cos of bof stall is a common misconception when it does actually have niches in OU.
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  17. Mega Ampharos

    Mega Ampharos

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    What are the projected rises and drops for the tier shift?
  18. Mega-Pokebattlerz

    Mega-Pokebattlerz

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    Here are my predictions.

    Togekiss: rise to OU
    Conkeldurr: drop to UU
    Gothitelle: either rise to OU or drop to PU
    Primeape: drop to PU
    Cryogonal: drop to PU
    Muk: drop to PU
    Bouffalant: drop to PU
    Trevenant: drop to NU
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2015
  19. Arik

    Arik

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    Don't forget Medicham to OU and Sylveon to UU
  20. Euphonos

    Euphonos ...and all I want to do is fly, just fly.
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    My thoughts here:

    Amoonguss from August --> 1.99500%
    Amoonguss from September --> 3.40232%
    If Amoonguss's usage in October skyrocketed (say, higher than ~5%), it will rise definitely.

    Sylveon usage stats from August --> 4.11051%
    Sylveon usage stats from September --> 3.37124%
    If Sylveon's usage in October drastically dropped (say, lower than ~2.5%), it will drop definitely.

    Conkeldurr from August --> 3.67407%
    Conkeldurr from September --> 3.30717%
    If Conkeldurr's usage in October dropped (say, lower than ~3%), it will drop definitely.

    However, as this tier shift needs cumulative stats from August to October, I may be wrong in the aforementioned speculations.
  21. atomicllamas

    atomicllamas but then what's left of me?
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    October is weighted as 20/24, September is 3/24, and August is 1/24 iirc, they don't need to drop or rise that much in order to fall.
    Euphonos likes this.
  22. Joe Career

    Joe Career

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    so when are the stats coming out? today's the 3rd. just curious tbh
  23. Swagodile

    Swagodile

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    It usually takes a few days.

    If they're not up today, then they should be up tomorrow.
    IronGrahn and Joe Career like this.
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