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Smogon Usage-Based Tier Update: May 2015

Discussion in 'Smogon Metagames' started by Antar, May 2, 2015.

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  1. Antar

    Antar
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    Robert Alfons, we're making these rules up as we go--the whole idea of quick rises/drops was anathema before it became a necessity post-server crash/ORAS. If we decide that the metagames would be better served by keeping Gallade in RU for an additional month, we will.

    Here's one reason why: if we keep it in RU, it will have an even easier time dropping to NU next month, when the cutoff is only 2.3%. But if we let it fall, it's extremely unlikely it'll muster the 4.5% RU usage next month required to get it back into the tier. So the "safer" thing to do is to keep it in RU. Not saying that's what's going to happen, but that's the argument.
    marilli likes this.
  2. Antar

    Antar
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    No, the cutoff for quick-rise in the first month after a standard tier update is 6.7%.
    Anty likes this.
  3. Darvin

    Darvin

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    | 19 | Seismitoad | 9.518% |

    Seismitoad is definitely above the quick-rise margin to go from NU to RU, though.

    Hopefully Hitmonchan and Trevenant maintain their current low usage in their respective tiers so they drop the next time there's a full tier shift.
  4. p2

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    Seismitoad is already RU though, it rose last month
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  5. Darvin

    Darvin

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    My mistake; haven't played NU this month and forgot it had risen. I did use Seismitoad extensively during the UU suspect test; it's a very nice pokemon and worked really well for how many things it could check at once while offering stealth rock support.
  6. Merritt

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    Looking at the random battle usage stats always disillusions me so much. You can even just look at the 0 stats since it's all "random" right?

    For example, you're more likely to get Floette-E, who isn't even released or announced, than Pikachu. And Meowstic is obviously a fan favorite for the programmers.

    It's obviously all an evil plot to slowly condition us to get Meowstic to OU and make sure Pikachu is completely forgotten!
    Karxrida, Darvin and Lukethehedgehog like this.
  7. Darvin

    Darvin

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    I'd be interested in seeing how often any particular pokemon is on the winning team in random battle. I have plenty of random battle (both singles and doubles) experience under my belt and have some anecdotal experience about which pokemon substantially help or hinder your team. I'd have to wonder if hard numbers back that up, and how pronounced the effect would be. It's not perfect since it wouldn't reflect variation in sets, but it would be nice to know just how badly a pokemon like Unown or Farfetch'd hurts your chances of winning.
    gerryoat likes this.
  8. Antar

    Antar
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    Darvin, "winning" teams is a meaningless metric on a ladder with matchmaking, but what you want you can get at by considering the weighted stats (the higher the weight the more "winning").
  9. RadicalReuniclus

    RadicalReuniclus

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    I'm honestly confused. Is Gallade the only pokemon this month even changing tiers or are we going to see a completed June Tier Shift later?
    Mijzelffan likes this.
  10. Talpr0ne

    Talpr0ne

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    Gallade is the only Pokemon shifting tiers this time.
  11. Darvin

    Darvin

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    Antar I was referring to random battle where teams are explicitly outside of player control, and thus the frequency of their appearance is independent of the skill of the player using it. Providing a win% would demonstrate how that pokemon's presence - on average - helps or hinders a random team. I agree it would be less than helpful, if not outright useless, in a context where players select their own teams.
  12. Antar

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    Darvin, I've looked at this in the past, and there's no meaningful difference.
  13. Antar

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    So it's been decided: Gallade will be dropping to NU. If it's broken there, it'll be sent to BL3. Otherwise, it's not like players aren't allowed to use it in RU...
    Clone, Jaguar360, xInsrew and 5 others like this.
  14. Snobalt

    Snobalt Funny when you're dead how people start listening
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    | 67 | Alomomola | 2.378% |
    Dear UU players: Please start using Alomomola more so I can stop seeing that shit in RU. Thanks in advance.
  15. Guidorealmsmc

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    Your should also mention cinccino in there as it is complete shit and gets too much usage. Btw OU used 1760 for tiering so Donphan would drop to uu. I support this.
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2015
  16. Snobalt

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    As the guy who wrote Cinccino's analysis, I can tell you that it actually has somewhat of a niche. It's a decent anti-lead because it shuts down the likes of Omastar and Crustle. Cinccino also has arguably better coverage than Ambipom, making it better at late-game cleaning (though it isn't very good at that to begin with).
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  17. Antar

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    This is not true. The OU-UU cutoff is based on 1695 stats. There *are* no 1760 OU stats.

    The reason for this is because OU is the default tier, so competitive players make up a smaller fraction of the playerbase. This is true for no other standard tier.
    Guidorealmsmc likes this.
  18. Polite Chikorita

    Polite Chikorita

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    I feel bad for Gallade lol
    Gallade drop.jpg
    The Idealistic, Rider, Clone and 15 others like this.
  19. ScraftyIsTheBest

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    Wow, Gallade went from OU to NU in just one month, what a boss.
    Come on I was about to say that.

    But yeah, Gallade went from OU to NU in just one month. It's a new record!!!!

    Meanwhile Gardevoir is still rocking OU as it's still a top mon there.

    Anyways, it's true that Cinccino is not good but it's certainly less of an issue in terms of what we have in RU than Ambipom is. Looking at those stats, Ambipom being at things like #2 in unweighted and everyone and their mother using it is quite troubling considering Ambipom is probably even more shitty.

    Cinccino is terrible right now but it's less of an issue in terms of what is being used in RU than Ambipom. Of course both suck but yeah.
  20. Snobalt

    Snobalt Funny when you're dead how people start listening
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    Oh, one more thing:
    sirDonovan what say you?
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  21. Guidorealmsmc

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    I meant donphan my Damn autocorrect entered it wrong. Also lol @ the fact gallade went from OU to NU in a month.
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2015
  22. Stratos

    Stratos Banned deucer.

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    :pirate:
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  23. Antar

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    Stratos, yes, sorry. I meant *singles* tier. Doubles UU is indeed based off of Doubles-1695 stats. :heart:
  24. Blumenwitz

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    We've got a long way to go...

    I mean, I'm glad that Claydol dropped and it looks like Hitmonchan will soon follow, but newbie users are still clinging to Ambipom for some reason. As someone who likes Ambipom, this is kind of upsetting. I really wish people would stop using it in RU so that it can drop into a tier where it might actually be useful.
    Melons-N-Soda likes this.
  25. Flyhn

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    I've seen Ambipoms in UU multiple times. Freaking UU! If I had to guess why, it's STAB Technician Fake Out seems to be the main reason it's used... it's quite nasty
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