Smogon's Official Ladder Tournament II - Playoffs Round 2

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In response to the video above, and on the much discussed turn 42:

'Why not going straight for the EQ, I don't know' = pardon my language, bullshit. Then calling it a choke while giving a wrong analysis is probably worse.

In hindsight, because Teso turned out to be CM Raikou AND CM'd on that specific turn, yes, EQ was Hiye's best play. But at that moment in the game, with the information available to Hiye combined with set probabilities and calcs, EQ simply was NOT his best play.

At 89%, no Hippowdon spread lives a combination of regular Raikou HP Ice + CB Victini V Create. Had Hiye EQ'd but Teso HP Ice'd first, CB Victini would click V Create twice and win the game for Teso 100%, since Hiye's Raikou would be unable to revenge kill it even at -1 spdef:

252 SpA Raikou Shadow Ball vs. -1 0 HP / 0 SpD Victini: 240-284 (70.3 - 83.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

We knew this because Hiye (unlike Teso) has revealed using both Tbolt and Volt Switch after eachother ruling out specs, meaning once more that Victini would have won (Teso knew that Victini couldn't have been revenged by Hiye's Raikou, making outright clicking HP Ice seem even more logical in Hiye's mind, assuming Teso had one of two common Raikou sets).

This gives Hiye two sensible plays: a) Slacking Off to put himself at 100% to always live V Create + HP Ice (if it DID turn out to be specs he could've then switched out to Raikou regardless) OR hardswitching into Raikou, because:

Hiye was rocking the already less common CM Raikou himself, which beats the 2 most common Raikou sets 1v1, justifying Hiye, based on logic and probability, to hardswitch into Raikou like he did. Even if Teso was CM Raikou, AND CM'd on turn 42 (like ended up happening) this was by far the least expected play to happen and the only way for Hiye to lose, but even then Hiye's own Raikou had a good shot at beating it bar a random Shadow Ball coverage move on Teso's CM Raikou which ALSO ended up happening.

We are keen to call out people for choking nowadays from the sidelines, but how much could we blame Hiye for percentage wise simply making the best play given the information he had at the time?

Sure, outright EQing would've won him the game in hindsight, but the only reason he had for EQing would be if Teso's Raikou was ALSO CM Raikou AND Dared to CM that very turn. In any other scenario EQing would've lost him the game. Can we really blame Hiye for taking the most logical and probable way to win (bar Slacking Off, but this would've ALSO lost to Teso's Raikou set and play). What if Teso attacked, Hiye EQ'd, and then Teso won with Victini? We probably also would've screamed 'OMG he choked'. Nah. Hiye made one of two best possible plays for himself. I would've probably Slacked Off tbh (and still lost).

tl;dr Hiye's best play at the time was Slacking Off or indeed going straight to Raikou. Teso won because of a very situational Raikou set and playing it excellently. EQ was definitely NOT the play.
 
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WECAMEASROMANS

im not racist i hate everyone equally
is a Tiering Contributor
In response to the video above, and on the much discussed turn 42:

'Why not going straight for the EQ, I don't know' = pardon my language, bullshit. Then calling it a choke while giving a wrong analysis is probably worse.

In hindsight, because Teso turned out to be CM Raikou AND CM'd on that specific turn, yes, EQ was Hiye's best play. But at that moment in the game, with the information available to Hiye combined with set probabilities and calcs, EQ simply was NOT his best play.

At 89%, no Hippowdon spread lives a combination of regular Raikou HP Ice + CB Victini V Create. Had Hiye EQ'd but Teso HP Ice'd first, CB Victini would click V Create twice and win the game for Teso 100%, since Hiye's Raikou would be unable to revenge kill it even at -1 spdef:

252 SpA Raikou Shadow Ball vs. -1 0 HP / 0 SpD Victini: 240-284 (70.3 - 83.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

We knew this because Hiye (unlike Teso) has revealed using both Tbolt and Volt Switch after eachother ruling out specs, meaning once more that Victini would have won (Teso knew that Victini couldn't have been revenged by Hiye's Raikou, making outright clicking HP Ice seem even more logical in Hiye's mind, assuming Teso had one of two common Raikou sets).

This gives Hiye two sensible plays: a) Slacking Off to put himself at 100% to always live V Create + HP Ice (if it DID turn out to be specs he could've then switched out to Raikou regardless) OR hardswitching into Raikou, because:

Hiye was rocking the already less common CM Raikou himself, which beats the 2 most common Raikou sets 1v1, justifying Hiye, based on logic and probability, to hardswitch into Raikou like he did. Even if Teso was CM Raikou, AND CM'd on turn 42 (like ended up happening) this was by far the least expected play to happen and the only way for Hiye to lose, but even then Hiye's own Raikou had a good shot at beating it bar a random Shadow Ball coverage move on Teso's CM Raikou which ALSO ended up happening.

We are keen to call out people for choking nowadays from the sidelines, but how much could we blame Hiye for percentage wise simply making the best play given the information he had at the time?

Sure, outright EQing would've won him the game in hindsight, but the only reason he had for EQing would be if Teso's Raikou was ALSO CM Raikou AND Dared to CM that very turn. In any other scenario EQing would've lost him the game. Can we really blame Hiye for taking the most logical and probable way to win (bar Slacking Off, but this would've ALSO lost to Teso's Raikou set and play). What if Teso attacked, Hiye EQ'd, and then Teso won with Victini? We probably also would've screamed 'OMG he choked'. Nah. Hiye made one of two best possible plays for himself. I would've probably Slacked Off tbh (and still lost).

tl;dr Hiye's best play at the time was Slacking Off or indeed going straight to Raikou. Teso won because of a very situational Raikou set and playing it excellently. EQ was definitely NOT the play.
sorry, i'd love to agree with you here in scenarios like these, but you're wrong :/

you say that switching to raikou vs the opposing raikou was the better play because if he stayed in with hippo, hippo would've died to hp ice + v-create the turn after, and then raikou cant kill the -1 spdef victini and gets KOed back, so teso woulda won. that certainly is correct, but in this context, how on earth would hard switching into your own cm raikou change the outcome at all?

lets just think about what happened if teso's raikou WAS specs and he actually did hp ice on that turn instead of using CM. hiye switches into his leftovers raikou and tanks the HP ice easily. thats awesome, then what???? after that hiye has only TWO possibilities, and NEITHER would enable him to win regardless.

1. CM as teso switches out into his cb victini. however, +1 tbolt doesnt kill victini, and then raikou dies to v-create, then hippo dies the turn after to CB v-create + specs raikou hp ice. +1 252 SpA Raikou Thunderbolt vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Victini: 202-238 (59.2 - 69.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

2. instead of CMing, hiye uses tbolt to hit the victini on the switch. however, he still would've lost, because a +0 thunderbolt doesn't even 2hko victini, so victini tanks two tbolts and then kills raikou afterwards, and then the same thing happens. 252 SpA Raikou Thunderbolt vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Victini: 135-160 (39.5 - 46.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

so to sum it up, even if teso WAS specs/AV raikou, and hiye switched to his own cm raikou, hiye still would've lost regardless what he did, barring a crit + max damage roll.

now you might be like, "oh but if teso's raikou was specs and he didnt switch out hippowdon he would've lost anyway!" now that is true, but since hiye was in a losing position no matter what play he made, he at least could've hoped teso was a CM raikou set and would do something reckless to choke away the game, like CM on the hippo (WHICH HE DID!!!), and punish teso's choke by EQing with hippo. hiye didn't make this play, and lost. instead, he was thinking short term, and his thought process was probably like "my cm raikou sets up on his specs/av raikou!!!", and didn't think about the game any further than that specific turn, which proved to be crucial.



i agree with you on one thing tho, smogtours chat is fucking retarded during official tour matches and only approximately like 5% of ppl spamming the chat actually know what the fuck they're talking about so they shouldnt be talking and criticizing the game like they're some OU jesi or whatever
 
WCAR, I see where you're coming from, and of course what you say makes sense, but my point was more so to disprove that Hiye 'choked' as people were calling it. The fact is that because of shadow ball on Raikou he pretty much couldn't avoid losing. AND EQ is even a roll on Raikou.

Also, you overlooked one option:
2. instead of CMing, hiye uses tbolt to hit the victini on the switch. however, he still would've lost, because a +0 thunderbolt doesn't even 2hko victini, so victini tanks two tbolts and then kills raikou afterwards, and then the same thing happens. 252 SpA Raikou Thunderbolt vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Victini: 135-160 (39.5 - 46.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Simple: why would he Tbolt to catch the Victini on the switch if he can also Volt Switch into Hippo? Then Hippo is at 95, making it much more likely to live the combination of aforementioned moves.

All in all this just shows that this was an incredibly interesting and complex turn and you can analyze as much as you want. I stick with my comments about turn 42. But at least we're giving it some thought, although it's all talk after the fact i guess so it's not really getting any of us anywhere.
 
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couldn't he just click stealth rock followed by slack off followed by EQ (or stealth rock straight to EQ depending on what raikou did on the stealth rock turn, slack if he iced EQ if he CMed) or am i missing something here

irrespective of that play i found letting clefable get to +6 when he had a healthy togekiss somewhat dubious

re: the roll below when you consider sand it's pretty heavily in his favor if he wants to go that route. in any case, going to raikou was definitely by far the worst of the 4 reasonable options (SR, EQ, slack, switch)

^ edit to the above, guess that shows how much thought i gave this, still going to kou is 1 of 2 clear worst choices out of a possible 5 moves

smogtours chat is retarded tho so theres that
 
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4 Atk Hippowdon Earthquake vs. 32 HP / 0 Def Raikou: 302-356 (91.7 - 108.2%) -- 50% chance to OHKO

I will leave this here js

EDIT: All this shit happened because I missed two stone edge in a row so call it karma or whatever you want but I deserved that win (and I don't think hiye was choking)

EDIT 2:
re: the roll below when you consider sand it's pretty heavily in his favor
Hippowdon wasn't sand
 
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false.

h*ck, i am not scrolling anymore
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In response to the video above, and on the much discussed turn 42:

'Why not going straight for the EQ, I don't know' = pardon my language, bullshit. Then calling it a choke while giving a wrong analysis is probably worse.
Please understand that I'm just a human. In the heat of the moment I made a mistake. I hadn't really looked back on it since then. I have very little time between turns to make analysis, and if you pay attention, I happened to rush my thought process and make a multitude of [uneducated, and poor] analysis errors over that small duration of turns. Also keep in mind for the majority of the time, I was speaking with 2020 hindsight. Most of my commentary about turn 42 came after the turn had concluded. Mistakes happen, I am human. I apologise for my errors. I have no problem being proven wrong, I am not perfect.
 
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Please understand that I'm just a human. In the heat of the moment I made a mistake. I hadn't really looked back on it since then. I have very little time between turns to make analysis, and if you pay attention, I happened to rush my thought process and make a multitude of [uneducated, and poor] analysis errors over that small duration of turns. Also keep in mind for the majority of the time, I was speaking with 2020 hindsight. Most of my commentary about turn 42 came afterward the turn had concluded. Mistakes happen, I am human. I apologise for my errors. Regardless, I have no problem being proven wrong, I am not perfect. I'm Sorry.
No worries dude. Nor my analysis nor WCAR's nor Staths was perfect either as everyone pointed out vice versa. It just showed that it was an interesting turn. I just wanted to show Hiye didn't 'choke' (as opposed to for example Asuya).
 
Winner Bracket

Tele vs Evanston
High Impulse vs boudouche
Arifeen vs Omfuga
Get This Money vs foxlord
Alexander. vs Lange
njnp vs -Tsunami-
Leftiez vs FlamingVictini
ABR vs PDC

Loser Bracket

hiyee vs teso24
beatiful vs WECAMEASROMANS
Sabella vs cosine180
shartruce2 vs Specterito
Asuya vs xray
MetalGro$$ vs M Dragon
Googly vs DOOMXFTW
TewMew vs Tesung
 

Tele

a quality human being
I dont. I used a Hitler parody caption generator l0l

i agree with you on one thing tho, smogtours chat is fucking retarded during official tour matches and only approximately like 5% of ppl spamming the chat actually know what the fuck they're talking about so they shouldnt be talking and criticizing the game like they're some OU jesi or whatever
WCARS acting like he isnt part of the 95% of ppl spamming the chat with comments like "LOOOOOOOL" "WHAT A CHOKE"
this man is a professional troll give him his due respect l0l
 
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