We would have won eventually, barring lots of crossfire by the aliens, which seems unlikely to me. Aliens could be iced by night 5 and we'd still win, we had great steal targets every night, and would have 6-7 kills on night 5 by items alone. Add in the 0% chance of Cereza being stolen from by blue tornado or lynched since i was leading, and we were set to have our guns and would kill with all of them. We'd have majority right around there.
honestly DLE was one of my highest suspects for mafia, lynching only aliens and being hooked trying to buy an item and then providing no proof is a recipe for scum. Had I been stolen from, I certainly would have started a lynch on DLE.
It was Night 3. Mafia was killing some villager. Paperblade was killing Walrein. We were stealing from Vintagebooks, who had 54 gold by our count, possibly more. Although jalmont says he was passed about 20 gold, so that was probably vintage books.
We were at 32 gold as a team. We steal at worst 17 gold from vintage books.
14/4/1, team has 47 gold.
I lynch Rediamond. My team makes 12 gold during the day.
14/3/1, team has 59 gold.
Night 4: Mithril is at 33 gold. We steal from him. We get 16 gold that night. We kill a town member as does the other mafia.
12/3/1, team has 75 gold.
We lynch off other mafia. We buy 5 guns. We passively make 12 gold. We're at 7 gold + 5 guns.
Night 5: 12/3. Highest gold is draycos7 with 40. We steal 20. No one dies that night. We're at 27 gold + 5 guns.
I lynch tas. Make 12 passively. Buy one gun.
Night 6: 12/2, 6 guns, 19 gold.
Most money is kaxtar with 51. Steal 25. No one dies. 44 gold + 6 guns.
Mislynch, buy two guns. Passively make 12. 24 gold + 8 guns.
Night 7: 11/2. 8 gun kills + night kill.
2/2 game over.
Alternately, I lynch cereza after she passes me her money, stocks, and gold. Buy 2 guns plus a hook.
Night 7: 12/1. 8 gun kills + night kill. Kill 9, leave alive mithril. Can't steal. 24 gold.
Day 8: 3/1. Mithril alive. He has 0 vote. I just have to mislynch one person. I do that, buy gun + hook, win. I think this is beatable by both players buying hooks though EDIT: beatable if mithril buys a hook and a kill and kills me, which he would have the money to do. But mithril would have had me inspected as town (he was doing so on night 3), so I just have to hook the other, since he wouldn't hook me.
Note that both scenarios rely only on my still being believed due to never mislynching and on the other mafia killing 2 villagers for us, one of which was pretty much confirmed to happen on night 3. We just needed one more on night 4 and we had the game locked up, barring townies buying items out of the blue. This also doesn't rely on us having to steal massive amounts of money by abusing vintage books, although that was an option after I used my inspection on him.
Oh and I was going to post that I had proven my inspection with vintage books, since he had never claimed to me but I had his role PM. I just never got around to it on day 3, so even more reason why I find it hard to see my team losing :x