Standard Eggs - A Concept for Evaluating Breeding Costs

Rather than immediately bombard people with a load of waffle with all my ideas mixed in (and I tend to have more bad ideas than good ones), I've tried to present this as a quickfire Q & A outlining the basics. If you have any questions, suggestions or if you think I'm not explaining things well enough, please let me know. Hopefully I might be able to invoke some discussion on this as I'm really interested to hear what you guys think of it.

Standard Eggs - A Concept for Evaluating Breeding Costs


What is a Stardard Egg?


A Standard Egg or SEgg is a unit of measurement equivalent to hatching one Koffing egg. Breeding one Dratini takes about twice as long as breeding one Koffing so hatching one Dratini is equivalent about two SEggs.

Does this only apply to Pokemon species? (Here comes the interesting bit)

No, we can find a SEgg equivalent for pokemon with certain attributes (such as a specific IV spread). However, in order to do this, we need to know some information about the pokemon's parents. Once we have this information we can work out the probability of getting the desired offspring which in turn gives us the number of eggs we need to breed (take the reciprocal of this probability). We then multiply this number by the SEgg equivalent for that species to get the SEgg equivalent for the pokemon with those attributes.

For example, imagine we are breeding for 5IV, Hidden Ability Bulbasaurs to trade away and we have two 5IV parents:
Since Bulbasaur takes the same number of egg cycles as Koffing to hatch (21) we don't need to worry about a species conversion.
Using this calculator, wecan see that we hae about a 1 in 9 chance of each egg having the required attributes (5IVs and HA).
Hence our SEgg cost for breeding another 5IV, HA Bulbasaur is 1*9 = 9 SEggs. It's worth remebering that this is our own personal cost and that other people will have higher or lower costs, in fact, this pretty much forms the basis of trading in vanilla Gen VI!



What if I want to breed ***** from scratch?

In theory, it is very simpe to calculate the SEgg cost of a pokemon whichhas to be bred through multiple stages: simply add up the SEgg equivaent of each stage. However, in practice this is not quite so simple as often there are several paths we can go down when breeding. This is definitely an avenue for further exploration.

Note that applying a from-scratch pokemon SEgg cost does give us an upper limit of the 'trade-value' of that pokemon; it's not worth trading away two of our 9 SEgg Bulbasaurs for a pokemon that would only cost us 17 SEggs to breed ourselves!

SEgg equivalences could also be applied to non-bred pokemon, for example, we might say that we can catch two friend Safari Dittos in the time it takes to hatch one egg so a 3IV Ditto could be said to cost 0.5 * 34 = 17 SEggs.


So, how do I evaluate the SEgg value of my pokemon?

There are two attributes that I think will make SEggs usefull as a unit of measurment: simplicity and comparability. The effort involved per SEgg should be as constant as possible however, the SEgg value should also be fairly transparent. With these two points in mind I have come up with the following formula (Denoted Alpha Standard Eggs or aSEgg):

Species aSEgg equivalent = ( max{Compatabiity, Cycles/10} + Hatch Cost + Check Cost ) / Standard

Where:
Compatability is the number of egg cycles between eggs appearing at the Day Care
Cyles is the egg cyles of the species in question
Hatch Cost is the time it takes for an egg to hatch as a fraction of time that it takes to walk 255 steps.
Check Cost is the time it takes to do all the IV checking / marking / boxing of a newly hatched egg as a fraction of time it takes to walk 255 steps.
Standard is the ( max{Compatabiity, Cycles/10} + Hatch Cost + Check Cost ) of hatching a standard Koffing.


These have the following values:
Compatability = { 5 if the egg chance is 20%, 2 if the egg chance is 50%, 1.5 if the egg chance is 70% } (this is technically based on the parents, rather than species-wide)
Hatch Cost = 0.5 based on about 15s hatch time and 10 steps/sec cyling speed.
Hatch Cost = 2 based on about 50s check time and 10 steps/sec cycling speed. Based on simple IV Judge test; other tests may take longer.
Standard = 4.6 = (21/10) + 0.5 + 2.0


For pokemon in general given a set of parents:
pokemon aSEgg equialent = Species aSEgg equivalent / p

Where p is the probability of each egg having the desred attributes.


Some notes on this formula:
  • The divide by 10 is because we can add 10 egg cycles per 255 steps (five party members w/ Flame Body).
  • Compatability values will need tweaking to take into account the deviation in gaps between egss, which has a negative effect on hatching efficiency.
  • Unfortunately the Standard turned out to be 4.6 which is not a particularly nice number. I don't think this should be a problem, but altering this is a possibility
  • The chance of producing a p = (1/N) (i.e 1 in N chance) egg within N eggs is actually roughly (1 - 1/e) ~ 63%, assuming N is sufficiently large. Ideally a 50% or 95% interval would be chosen, however I feel this just adds to the complexity (plus, 3N is a good approximation for a 95% chance).
  • I've only managed to do a few very simple trials, so more investigation/data would be very helpful for pinning down some of the empirical variables.
  • The egg hatching mechanics have changed slightly since Gen IV (which is what I'm used to) so some of this may be inaccurate.
  • Frankly, this is currently more to show what a good formula might look like rather than a proper suggestion.


But why and where should I use SEggs?

It's a good question, because they don't appear immediately useful. Certainly, they can be used to put a value on how much breeding each pokemon 'costs' but what else?

Personally I feel the real value of this concept (which, lets face it, is not particularly novel) is the possibility of formalising it. Being able to quickly look up the amount of effort required to aquire a certain pokemon could prove to be a hugely valuable asset in evaluating trades, planning for breeding projects or simply optimising what you breed for. I envision a best case scenario in which a paradigm shift occurs enabling more complicated and elaborate breeding schemes and a richer and more interesting economy overall.

Gen VI brought big changes to breeding and trading (as you all know) effectively allowing the existance of an entirely vanilla breeding market, something not really seen in previous generations. It now takes effort to produce pokemon to trade (actually, it did before, but in a more transaction-cost sort of way) which adds an entirely new dynamic to breeding and trading, something that I feel still hasn't been fully explored yet. A standardisation for the cost of breeding is as important step towards fully taking advantage of this aspect.


Notes:


This isn't all that I wanted to say, but all I'm going to say just now. I hope you found this interesting. As before, I'd love to hear your comments, contributions and suggestions. Ultimately if this proves to be a popular idea it's goign to require a lot of input from the community.
 
This sounds interesting, and I think the only thing you left out is that you should add a certain amound of SEggs for each egg move required, including the entire breeding chain to get a move from the initial pokemon to the one you want. Usually only one generation is necessary to pass on an egg move, and it would always use the same species' base egg timing, but in the case of multiple generations being required, the SEgg value should be done for each other species incorporated.

Also, is the default assuming that you already have perfect 6IV parents or, more reasonably, 5IV parents in the desired stats? Depending on your pool of breeding parents and circumstances, the SEgg values for someone's pokemon could be completely different than someone else who has more/less time invested already in various egg groups / amazing IV-ed dittos to choose from.

I guess my main question is... is intended to be a situational/personal number that you use just to judge your own values of your pokemon for someone else's OR is this supposed to work as the end-all-be-all cost-comparison of one pokemon vs another in respective breeding time required to produce?
 
This sounds interesting, and I think the only thing you left out is that you should add a certain amound of SEggs for each egg move required, including the entire breeding chain to get a move from the initial pokemon to the one you want. Usually only one generation is necessary to pass on an egg move, and it would always use the same species' base egg timing, but in the case of multiple generations being required, the SEgg value should be done for each other species incorporated.
My idea is that it would look something like this:

SEgg equivalent for obtaining parent with egg moves + SEgg cost of Gen 1 (will be higher as different species are breeding) + SEgg cost of Gen 2 + ... + SEgg cost of Gen K

But since passing down egg moves is effectively free once you have them (barring making sure the daycare doesn't overwrite them) it doesn't factor into SEgg costs beyond the initial aquisition cost. I think this is basically what you were saying.

On an unrelated note, doea anyone else thing the Species SEgg cost might get a bit confusing since it can vary? Generally it should be quite constant as you'll be breeding male and female from the same game, and for genederless pokemon you'll be breeding that pokemon plus your own ditto.... most of the time.

Also, is the default assuming that you already have perfect 6IV parents or, more reasonably, 5IV parents in the desired stats? Depending on your pool of breeding parents and circumstances, the SEgg values for someone's pokemon could be completely different than someone else who has more/less time invested already in various egg groups / amazing IV-ed dittos to choose from.
Clearly to use the formula you need to know something about the parents. For things tat take more than one generation we need to do multiple SEgg calculations following the most efficient route (as I said before, this needs a bit of work). To answer your second question, if you want to calculate the cost to yourself to produce something, then you should use the resources you have available and calculate the SEgg cost of your breeding chain. For calculating a general SEgg cost we assume no resources (except a few standardised ones such as a Flame Body pokemon and 2IV Dittos).

I guess my main question is... is intended to be a situational/personal number that you use just to judge your own values of your pokemon for someone else's OR is this supposed to work as the end-all-be-all cost-comparison of one pokemon vs another in respective breeding time required to produce?
The answer is both. I think both numbers are useful and are meaningful in relation to each other.

And pokes that must evolve before they can breed.

"6iv shiny ha timid hp fire extrasensory budew"
This could be added as a SEgg equivalent cost between generations:

... + Gen 1 + Evolve SEgg cost + Gen 2 + Evolve SEgg cost + ...
 
By the time you've calculated how much SEgg your newly hatched is worth, you've already made a new hatchling..
 
Why is it the amount of egg cycles needed to make the multiplier equal to one 21? Wouldn't 1 egg cycle per multiplier be better (so koffing would be 21, riolu 26, genesect 121, and Magikarp 6, to provide some examples)?
 
By the time you've calculated how much SEgg your newly hatched is worth, you've already made a new hatchling..
Yeah, it's not always going to be worth doing, but hopefully there should be some quick heuristics in the future.

Why is it the amount of egg cycles needed to make the multiplier equal to one 21? Wouldn't 1 egg cycle per multiplier be better (so koffing would be 21, riolu 26, genesect 121, and Magikarp 6, to provide some examples)?
That's a perfectly viable option. I just chose that number so that the average person can just think in terms of the time hatching a regular pokemon; a 255 walk cycle isn't going to be a meaningful number to most people. My reasoning was also that people are probably going to have acess to a calculator while doing these calcs anyway.
 
It sounds like a good idea, until you start seeing people say "I'm not trading my super rare high quality perfect Pokemon for your super rare high quality perfect Pokemon, because yours hatched faster and therefore is less valuable".
 

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