The epic post you guys have been waiting for....
US, unless you do a retarded choice next night, village loses anyways. AND, even if you do the wiser choice (kill village), the win would go on priorities or we win. The village is plainly fucked at this moment, since frankly, I think you got the brains to do the maths.
(This all assumes Life is bluffing)
So, village doesn't have a great chance of winning anyways. It goes down to luck, and if any of the sides avoids the mayor with kills (they won't). Why stretch this game further than needed? All the wins are either creatures or US, none of them have a chance of you guys winning unless either we or US does something retarded, which I doubt any of us will do.
Ball is in your court, Wasteland.
US, unless you do a retarded choice next night, village loses anyways. AND, even if you do the wiser choice (kill village), the win would go on priorities or we win. The village is plainly fucked at this moment, since frankly, I think you got the brains to do the maths.
Village lynches me: US, 2 creatures and 4 wasteland left.
Both kill village: 2 villagers left, at maximum 3 votes, versus 2 creature votes and US vote.
If US sides with the village here and lynches one of us, it goes max 4 VS 2. After next night, it's either 1v1, US or village wins (US targets us, we target village, US and a villager left, village wins if mayor is left. If US is faster, 2 villagers and him left, and he has lost.), 1v2 (US targets village, we target him, he is faster, 2 creature and 1 wasteland left. Creature wins), or 2v2 (we target US, we are faster. 2 Creature and 2 Wasteland left. If Mayor has survives until the next day, Village win. If Mayor dies at any point before, during or after this, Creature wins). Any side can win, but the Villager is least likely, and only if they get lucky.
If we gang up with village and lynch US, it's maximum 5 votes vs 1. After next night it goes 1 wasteland vs 2 creature, which awards the creatures a win, since then there is more mafia than village left. SLIM chance for village to win, which is based on luck.
Next night, assuming lynch was tied; Either US and a villager was offed, and creatures wins (1 wasteland and 2 creatures, 2 kills after each other since next lynch is skipped, and if any goes through, no village left. Also, creatures can lynch village if neither kill goes through). OR a villager and Creature was offed, and win goes down to priorities of the kills. Neither give a chance for Village to win.
If either we or US kill each other too early, village wins due to the majority of votes. (if either US or one of us dies next night, 2 VS 4 votes, village steamrolls us.)
Village lynches US: 4 village, 3 creatures.
After next night, 3 village, 3 creature. We persuade one of you, so it's 4 creature votes vs 2 wasteland votes. We win due to majority of votes and our kill.
Both kill village: 2 villagers left, at maximum 3 votes, versus 2 creature votes and US vote.
If US sides with the village here and lynches one of us, it goes max 4 VS 2. After next night, it's either 1v1, US or village wins (US targets us, we target village, US and a villager left, village wins if mayor is left. If US is faster, 2 villagers and him left, and he has lost.), 1v2 (US targets village, we target him, he is faster, 2 creature and 1 wasteland left. Creature wins), or 2v2 (we target US, we are faster. 2 Creature and 2 Wasteland left. If Mayor has survives until the next day, Village win. If Mayor dies at any point before, during or after this, Creature wins). Any side can win, but the Villager is least likely, and only if they get lucky.
If we gang up with village and lynch US, it's maximum 5 votes vs 1. After next night it goes 1 wasteland vs 2 creature, which awards the creatures a win, since then there is more mafia than village left. SLIM chance for village to win, which is based on luck.
Next night, assuming lynch was tied; Either US and a villager was offed, and creatures wins (1 wasteland and 2 creatures, 2 kills after each other since next lynch is skipped, and if any goes through, no village left. Also, creatures can lynch village if neither kill goes through). OR a villager and Creature was offed, and win goes down to priorities of the kills. Neither give a chance for Village to win.
If either we or US kill each other too early, village wins due to the majority of votes. (if either US or one of us dies next night, 2 VS 4 votes, village steamrolls us.)
Village lynches US: 4 village, 3 creatures.
After next night, 3 village, 3 creature. We persuade one of you, so it's 4 creature votes vs 2 wasteland votes. We win due to majority of votes and our kill.
(This all assumes Life is bluffing)
I and Life dies:
If during next night, both kill a villager, it goes 1v1v2 creatures. At that moment, we can either lynch US, which gives the creatures the win, OR, we lynch the village, and win goes down on Priority (faster killer wins). If we tie the lynch (village and US vs creatures), either US and a creature are lynched, and creature win, or creature and villager is lynched, and win goes down on prio of kills. Village can't win.
If both target each other, it's 2 (creatures, or creature and US) vs 3 wastelanders, and village wins due to majority.
If US targets us, and we target village, it's either 1v1v2 villagers, or 1v1v3 villagers. Latter is win for village due to majority, while former is either a win for US (lynch a villy and creature), win for creatures (Lynch US and villager). If either side gangs up with village, the other side loses, which makes this a kingmaker. If mayor survives until the lynch after this one, village has won, otherwise they have lost. Slim chance for village.
If US and Life dies:
Village can muster a maximum of 3 votes after tonight, and that's a tie. And since we can just persuade one, we have won this. Creatures win.
If during next night, both kill a villager, it goes 1v1v2 creatures. At that moment, we can either lynch US, which gives the creatures the win, OR, we lynch the village, and win goes down on Priority (faster killer wins). If we tie the lynch (village and US vs creatures), either US and a creature are lynched, and creature win, or creature and villager is lynched, and win goes down on prio of kills. Village can't win.
If both target each other, it's 2 (creatures, or creature and US) vs 3 wastelanders, and village wins due to majority.
If US targets us, and we target village, it's either 1v1v2 villagers, or 1v1v3 villagers. Latter is win for village due to majority, while former is either a win for US (lynch a villy and creature), win for creatures (Lynch US and villager). If either side gangs up with village, the other side loses, which makes this a kingmaker. If mayor survives until the lynch after this one, village has won, otherwise they have lost. Slim chance for village.
If US and Life dies:
Village can muster a maximum of 3 votes after tonight, and that's a tie. And since we can just persuade one, we have won this. Creatures win.
So, village doesn't have a great chance of winning anyways. It goes down to luck, and if any of the sides avoids the mayor with kills (they won't). Why stretch this game further than needed? All the wins are either creatures or US, none of them have a chance of you guys winning unless either we or US does something retarded, which I doubt any of us will do.
Ball is in your court, Wasteland.
