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That one-in-500 chance

Discussion in 'Pokémon Showdown!' started by Just a Tester, May 27, 2013.

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  1. Just a Tester

    Just a Tester

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    http://pokemonshowdown.com/replay/uberssuspecttest-20386078
    9 turns in a row my Giratina didn't get paralysed.
    If paralysis is 50%, 0.5 ^ 9 * 100 = 0.195% of this happening.
    I've also had 3 cases of no-para for 7 turns in a row in the last 2 days.
    I have never seen even close to 5 para in a row.
    I'm starting to suspect the simulator is biased...
  2. Iminyourcloset

    Iminyourcloset OBJECTION! What do you mean I have a weakness now?!
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    Why would you make this a thread...
    This is how percentages work:
    let's say you use a 99% accurate move. Technically, that move may never hit. because there is that 1% possibility, that continually diminishes, but never hits 0. It's terrifyingly small, but it's definitely possible, and always will be possible. You, my friend, have been hit with something called "hax"-- aka Baaaad Luck. And also, paralysis chance is 25%.
    So, before you suspect our simulator to be biased, consider how the real world works.

    EDIT: Make that your opponent had hax*
  3. tehy

    tehy

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    So have you played 500 matches?

    More to the point, i'm sure more than 500 matches are being played on PS! at any given time. So in one of them, something insane happens, a 1-in-500 chance.

    It's very unlikely that the simulator is biased in such a manner. If you notice, in the credits, the actual names of the people who made PS! are there. Why would they attach their names to something purposefully flawed? And I don't think they could miss such a mistake, either.

    If you really want, though, why not try it out? Get a paralysed harvest leppa mon versus a harvest leppa mon with permanent sun up, both with non-damaging attacks. Attack 1000 times. Record the results. If it's really heavily skewed, bring up that data. (I mean, it'd probably have to be tested more, etc. But that's a start.)
  4. HUARGH

    HUARGH

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  5. Just a Tester

    Just a Tester

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    The point is, games where things are meant to be 50/50 usually record past events, and then work to normalise the distribution - i.e. each time you don't get para, it increases the probability of para next time, so that you are consistently drawn towards 50:50 on a micro scale, not over a sample of 1000000 turns. The simulator is clearly not doing this.
  6. Just a Tester

    Just a Tester

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    well that explains it then. you need to fix your simulator to 50% like it is in the games
  7. ginganinja

    ginganinja Dating Haunter
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    Don't know if trolling or serious
  8. tehy

    tehy

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    Uh to clarify

    The actual pokemon game-and most games like that in general-don't have coding that makes stuff regress to the mean. Past events are NOT taken into account. Nor should they be.

    Also, yeah, paralysis chance is 25%.
  9. NixHex

    NixHex what is béisbol
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    You're right, the simulator clearly doesn't do it. Mystery solved. Read tehy's post.

    By the way, you know showdown is open source, right? Go here: https://github.com/Zarel/Pokemon-Showdown
    You can peruse the code you want and determine the probabilities from there. Since you seem to know a lot about random processes and their implentation in videogames, you shouldn't have any trouble reading the code.
  10. Mockingjay

    Mockingjay

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    Nice Pokemon team. Not op at all!
  11. Zarel

    Zarel Not a Yuyuko fan
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    No, they don't.

    In fact, the Pokemon games, including its random number generator, are well disassembled and understood, and they definitely don't do that. (Not to mention that trying to patch a random number generator not to be "too random" is bad game design for a number of reasons.)

    So unless you're telling us to stop simulating pokemon and start simulating something that's not pokemon, this is entirely a non-issue.
  12. Furai

    Furai a Ωdefender // a αguardian
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    am i the only one who's interested why he's whining about not getting paralyzed?
  13. Pikachuun

    Pikachuun

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    Nope. Why would you whine about not getting para'd when you can whine about your opponent not getting para'd? Or you could even whine about getting para'd. Otherwise I don't see enough reason to whine.
  14. Marty D

    Marty D Bug Catcher
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    Yes, the simulator can seem very biased if you don't know the game mechanics.
    Also, please don't make threads like this; check your facts and post in Bug Reports if you think there's actually a problem.
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