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The Everything NFL Punter Thread - 2014/2015 Season
- Thread starter Stallion
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I know its preseason but I really like what i've been seeing from the Jags. I think they could be a playoff team by next year.
Bortles looks like a solid future starter (Think its idiotic to sit him this year) and the defense is a few pieces away from being great.
Gus Bradley seems like a great coach.
And to top it all off they play in the AFC South which is far & away the worst division in the NFL.
Bortles looks like a solid future starter (Think its idiotic to sit him this year) and the defense is a few pieces away from being great.
Gus Bradley seems like a great coach.
And to top it all off they play in the AFC South which is far & away the worst division in the NFL.
I actually agree with keeping him on the bench initially. Throwing a kid like that into the fire right off the bat can have serious effects on his confidence and body, especially if they don't yet have the proper pieces around him. He might have potential, but if he spends his rookie year being chased around and beaten up like a rag doll he won't have the chance to develop properly. The Jaguars need to assemble a better line first to protect him before they throw their QB of the Future to the wolves.
Hey man no hate, he holds the dolphins record for most consecutive completions, must be better than marino!!!!!!
Also i haven't paid any attention to him since he left, but for the dolphins he was reliably an above average but nothing special qb for 3 quarters, and then disastrous in the fourth quarter/overtime
right, because the only thing you can learn when you're not starting is what the other QB is doing and how.
xJownage
Even pendulums swing both ways
See you guys dont really understand what chad henne can do for a rookie QB. He still has a lot of experience and brings a calmness to the jags uptempo offense that a rookie couldnt bring. Meanwhile he isint the shitty QB you make him out to be. In the last 7 games of 2013, he had a QBR that was 14th in the nfl, so while not good he was above average. You also arent giving him credit for his intelligence, no rookie is ready to jump in, read defenses and adjust on the fly. Peyton Manning was the only exception ever to that rule. Bortles cant learn that by watching game film or being told, seeing it live is the best way. The jaguars organization doesnt want to make the same mistake they did with blaine gabbert, which is throwing him in immediately instead of putting him behind an experienced quarterback.
Gus Bradley has been very smart in his tenure so far, and i believe firmly that in tacticality he will not start Blake Bortles unless henne gets injured for the duration of the season.
Gus Bradley has been very smart in his tenure so far, and i believe firmly that in tacticality he will not start Blake Bortles unless henne gets injured for the duration of the season.
Can i just say that contrary to your assertion peyton didn't jump in and "read defenses and adjust on the fly" because he was not a good qb his rookie year? He was a little below league average in most any stats.
If you want exceptions to rookies not being ready look at the class of 2 years ago, where griffin and wilson had the best two rookie passing seasons ever, and luck did ok.
To be honest though, i think the big learning rookies do sitting is in practice, where they are much more free to make mistakes and learn, and can do things that might hurt them in the short term and help in the long term, which is what you cant do when youre actually playing. it doesn't matter too much who they're behind
If you want exceptions to rookies not being ready look at the class of 2 years ago, where griffin and wilson had the best two rookie passing seasons ever, and luck did ok.
To be honest though, i think the big learning rookies do sitting is in practice, where they are much more free to make mistakes and learn, and can do things that might hurt them in the short term and help in the long term, which is what you cant do when youre actually playing. it doesn't matter too much who they're behind
xJownage
Even pendulums swing both ways
while he did not jump in as a great quarterback, he showed an intelligence nobody had ever seen from a rookie qb.
TBH wilson and griffin had good seasons, but they didnt set the maturity bar, which is what I am focusing on. In that aspect, Luck was one of the better QBs, bringing a more veteran like calmness to his offense. The important thing for a rookie is to have that intelligence, which doesn't come; manning had it but didn't use it well, luck had it and was up and down (mostly up)
I agree a lot. It does matter who they are behind, since they need to be experienced, but that is really the only requirement imo. Experienced QBs still know what they are doing and can pass on that knowledge, so while I agree that the biggest part of learning for rookies is in practice, I also strongly believe it is in watching those appointed above them making decisions live. Seeing chad henne go about the offense by reading defenses and etc. allows bortles to tune his reactions live, allowing him to be a much more mature quarterback in a couple of short years, which is exactly what never happened with gabbert; he never breached the maturity gap.
Later I am going to do a write-up on why it is a bigger risk to take adrian peterson first overall in fantasy drafts. TBH I am picking mccoy over peterson if i get 1st pick in my draft, I would rather a dual threat RB in a productive offense IMO.
Not to mention AP is approaching that deadly precipice where most RBs begin to decline. Might not be this year but it's not far off, especially if he continues to be an every down back in an offense that relies on him to produce the overwhelming bulk of their yardage. He's a freak of nature, but even the best bodies have a breaking point. I would definitely take McCoy over AP in the #1 spot this year. I would probably even go far enough to suggest AP go behind Jamaal Charles, but maybe that's just me.
xJownage
Even pendulums swing both ways
So here is my list of the top 5 RBs in fantasy this year. I will reason for each below.
1. Lesean Mccoy
2. JaMaal Charles
3. Matt Forte
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Marshawn Lynch
So right off the back, if you pay attention I prefer one thing. Having a productive offense, and being dual-threat.
1. Lesean Mccoy doesn't face any of the problems that normal RBs at his level face: Stacked defensive lines, Carrying the offense, Being one dimensional, etc. Being in Chip Kelly's offense means that he will not have to face stacked lines, and even on passing downs will be a major contributor to the offense. He is by far the most important player in the entire offense, especially with desean jackson gone, and his numbers will reflect that by him having very consistent, high numbers, which is exactly what you want out of the first pick.
Jamaal Charles is very vital in the chiefs offense, and him being the teams best running back and wide receiver really makes a big difference. With a game manager-type quarterback in alex smith, charles is literally hard wired to put up huge, consistent numbers, just as he did last year.
Matt Forte is a dual threat back in an absolutely beastly offense. Nobody can put 8 in the box against the bears, as alshon jeffrey and brandon marshall will burn them every time. This means forte will see multiple big runs every game against the lax linebacker play and big time blitz packages. Forte also will get tons of receptions, with the safeties dropping to take jeffrey and marshall he will get a lot of checkdown yardage and many designed screens to burn the deep safeties.
So on to number 4.
Lets look at the past running backs that have hit this age at a high level.
of the 16 backs with more than 2,000 carries before age 29, only 4 had a 1,200 yard season after age 29. That group includes 8 hall of famers, including Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Walter Payton. Heres some stats on various running backs, and this rapid decline post-age 30.
Jerome Bettis:
age 25 26 27 28 29 30
yds 1665 1185 1091 1341 1072 666
There was only one running back who ran for more yards in a span of two seasons at ages 27 and 28, and he suffered even more.
Shawn Alexander:
age 26 27 28 29
yds 1435 1696 1880 896
Do you see the pattern? lets go further.
No two RBs have had more production in their first seven years in the nfl than Ladanian Tomlinson and Eric Dickerson. Both of them had their last 1,000 yard seasons at age 29.
This all says something. Adrian peterson is falling out of his grace. Not only is he dealing with his age, but he also has to deal with nearly constant eight man boxes, due to the fact that he IS the offense, and the vikings total lack of any passing game means that he will struggle to put up consistent numbers against solid run defenses he might face.
1. Lesean Mccoy
2. JaMaal Charles
3. Matt Forte
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Marshawn Lynch
So right off the back, if you pay attention I prefer one thing. Having a productive offense, and being dual-threat.
1. Lesean Mccoy doesn't face any of the problems that normal RBs at his level face: Stacked defensive lines, Carrying the offense, Being one dimensional, etc. Being in Chip Kelly's offense means that he will not have to face stacked lines, and even on passing downs will be a major contributor to the offense. He is by far the most important player in the entire offense, especially with desean jackson gone, and his numbers will reflect that by him having very consistent, high numbers, which is exactly what you want out of the first pick.
Jamaal Charles is very vital in the chiefs offense, and him being the teams best running back and wide receiver really makes a big difference. With a game manager-type quarterback in alex smith, charles is literally hard wired to put up huge, consistent numbers, just as he did last year.
Matt Forte is a dual threat back in an absolutely beastly offense. Nobody can put 8 in the box against the bears, as alshon jeffrey and brandon marshall will burn them every time. This means forte will see multiple big runs every game against the lax linebacker play and big time blitz packages. Forte also will get tons of receptions, with the safeties dropping to take jeffrey and marshall he will get a lot of checkdown yardage and many designed screens to burn the deep safeties.
So on to number 4.
Adrian Peterson
Adrian has hit the hump. The proverbial brick wall that every elite back in NFL history has faced and been defeated by, with very, very few exceptions. Adrian Peterson is a very amazing running back, but he is in no way immune to the incredibly remarkable stat drops found at and after the age of 29 for running backs.
Lets look at the past running backs that have hit this age at a high level.
of the 16 backs with more than 2,000 carries before age 29, only 4 had a 1,200 yard season after age 29. That group includes 8 hall of famers, including Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Walter Payton. Heres some stats on various running backs, and this rapid decline post-age 30.
Jerome Bettis:
age 25 26 27 28 29 30
yds 1665 1185 1091 1341 1072 666
There was only one running back who ran for more yards in a span of two seasons at ages 27 and 28, and he suffered even more.
Shawn Alexander:
age 26 27 28 29
yds 1435 1696 1880 896
Do you see the pattern? lets go further.
No two RBs have had more production in their first seven years in the nfl than Ladanian Tomlinson and Eric Dickerson. Both of them had their last 1,000 yard seasons at age 29.
This all says something. Adrian peterson is falling out of his grace. Not only is he dealing with his age, but he also has to deal with nearly constant eight man boxes, due to the fact that he IS the offense, and the vikings total lack of any passing game means that he will struggle to put up consistent numbers against solid run defenses he might face.
by the time Jerome Bettis turned 30, he had 2686 career carries. He was at 2461 before he turned 29.
the year before Shaun Alexander's fall from grace, he had 385 regular season touches + 62 postseason touches. believe in the "curse of 370" if you want, but that's eerily similar to 2012's Arian Foster (391 + 69). almost every back with a huge amount of touches regresses significantly the following year, as you can see for yourself.
there's more than one explanation for players' declines than simply age. Adrian Peterson is not a normal person, as evidenced by his freak recovery from a torn ACL leading to one of the best seasons in NFL history. he's bound for a decline, but if anything it's because of the amount of tread on his tires (over 2000 carries in only 7 years) than his age ticking from 29 to 30.
I'm personally more worried about #5, Marshawn Lynch. heavy workload last 3 seasons, has backups willing and ready to lighten his load, has a team that wants to save him for the playoffs, and most importantly he has a recurring back problem that could quickly flare up again. 2risky5me
the year before Shaun Alexander's fall from grace, he had 385 regular season touches + 62 postseason touches. believe in the "curse of 370" if you want, but that's eerily similar to 2012's Arian Foster (391 + 69). almost every back with a huge amount of touches regresses significantly the following year, as you can see for yourself.
there's more than one explanation for players' declines than simply age. Adrian Peterson is not a normal person, as evidenced by his freak recovery from a torn ACL leading to one of the best seasons in NFL history. he's bound for a decline, but if anything it's because of the amount of tread on his tires (over 2000 carries in only 7 years) than his age ticking from 29 to 30.
I'm personally more worried about #5, Marshawn Lynch. heavy workload last 3 seasons, has backups willing and ready to lighten his load, has a team that wants to save him for the playoffs, and most importantly he has a recurring back problem that could quickly flare up again. 2risky5me
xJownage
Even pendulums swing both ways
Sure that many players do decline due to a multitude of issues, but the point is: they all decline at age of 29-30. It almost always happens this way. Adrian peterson is not a normal person, you are right, but he is still human. You can attribute his quick recovery towards advanced medical technology, in regards to the fact that there has never been a more well-covered ACL injury in NFL history, and the vikings handling the situation so well. Meanwhile its not too hard for an elite running back to dominate like that when teams aren't preparing for him, expecting him to be sore, and its much easier when you have an offensive line like he did that year. Meanwhile, people say that AP is "super-human" and can defy all odds due to him being such an amazing player, but they seem to forget: people have said the same things about tons of players before. Meanwhile, he is not the incredible hulk either, he wears down just like normal players do (see his ACL), which is why this occurs to begin with. Saying he won't wear down is acting like he will live forever, and is just you trying to say that he is such an amazing player he is not subject to normal human processes, which is just not true.
The point isin't that their production declined then and thats all there is to it, its that for various reasons, they were never the same after that age. Many getting injured/worn down at that age isin't a fluke, its because that those issues can actually be attributed to age. Bettis' injury was very well correlated to the wear and tear his body had endured, and at age 29, that seemed to finally catch him and stop him in his tracks. Regardless, it is obvious that something happens to all running backs bodies at this age, and well, saying adrian peterson is immune because of his physicality is kind of ignorant.
The point isin't that their production declined then and thats all there is to it, its that for various reasons, they were never the same after that age. Many getting injured/worn down at that age isin't a fluke, its because that those issues can actually be attributed to age. Bettis' injury was very well correlated to the wear and tear his body had endured, and at age 29, that seemed to finally catch him and stop him in his tracks. Regardless, it is obvious that something happens to all running backs bodies at this age, and well, saying adrian peterson is immune because of his physicality is kind of ignorant.
One thing strikes me about what you said though xJownage, and that's when you mentioned the RBs that still had good seasons later in their career. I would put Adrian Peterson up there with the likes of Jim Brown, Walter Payton, and Marshall Faulk in quality, as he's just a freak of nature. He does absorb a lot of contact though, so he'll probably still decline a bit now.
EDIT: Le'Veon Bell AND LeGarrette Blount arrested for pot possession. Wtf...
EDIT: Le'Veon Bell AND LeGarrette Blount arrested for pot possession. Wtf...
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There's an endless amount of puns/Jokes you can make here
"Bad news for fantasy players: the Steelers running backs are getting arrested by committee "
"Blount was the handcuff for Bell"
"the steelers backfield just went up in smoke"
feel free to add
"Bad news for fantasy players: the Steelers running backs are getting arrested by committee "
"Blount was the handcuff for Bell"
"the steelers backfield just went up in smoke"
feel free to add
Nice change of pace.
Anyway, does anyone else think the Raiders made a big mistake by giving up Terrelle Pryor? The Seahawks have virtually no use for him.
Dwyer's in Arizona now, but Redman is still an option.
xJownage
Even pendulums swing both ways
DONT SAY THAT! We all want to see Dri Archer cmon.
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