The World Cup of Pokemon V - Finals [Won by Oceania]

Status
Not open for further replies.
Stellar, my jira outran his luke and it died to lo recoil, so as long as I can live an extreme speed, it doesn't matter. lol there's a lot of convo going on about this match. Once again I apologise about the hax, and there's a lot more people have said about the different things that happened. Eh, I really don't know what more I can say.
 
Jirachi + Skarmory (SR on this side) vs Swampert + Crobat + Lucario + Starmie (SR + 2x Spikes on this side)

4 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Spe Adamant Lucario @ Life Orb
252 HP / 72 Def / 184 Spe Timid Jirachi @ Leftovers
4 HP / 252 SpA / 252 Spe Starmie @ Life Orb

Jirachi switches into SR and is left at 93.75%
Starmie switches in and its HP is inconsequential
Starmie uses Hydro Pump and deals 52.2% - 61.9% (80% chance of Hydro Pump miss)
Jirachi uses Calm Mind
Jirachi recovers 6.25%
Starmie uses Hydro Pump and deals 35.6% - 41.8% (80% chance of Hydro Pump miss)
Jirachi uses Thunderbolt and kills Starmie
Jirachi recovers 6.25%
Jirachi is now at +1 SpA/SpD and is left at 2.3% - 18.2%

Crobat switches in and dies to Psychic (33% chance of Crobat waking up since it slept one turn previously)

Jirachi is now at 8.55% - 24.45%
Lucario switches in and is at 78.125%

Indra has three options:

Option A: ExtremeSpeed
vs Jirachi: 12.6% - 15.1%

Option B: Swords Dance
SD ES vs Jirachi: 25.5% - 30%
SD CC vs Skarmory: OHKO

Option C: Close Combat
vs Skarmory: 2HKO with Leftovers

nagai has two options:

Option D: Psychic
+1 Psychic vs -0 Lucario: 69.4% - 82.2%
+0 Psychic vs -1 Lucario: 69.4% - 82.2%
+0 Psychic vs -2 Lucario: OHKO after SR + Spikes

Option E: switch to Skarmory

Combinations:

All win percentages after this point assume Hydro Pump didn’t miss, and that Crobat didn’t wake up. But they’re cumulative on top of each other within each scenario.

AD – ExtremeSpeed on Psychic

There’s a 58.8% chance of Jirachi surviving ExtremeSpeed [41.2% chance Indra wins]
Lucario loses 10% to Life Orb recoil and is now at 68.125%
There’s a 100% chance Lucario dies to +1 Psychic [58.8% chance nagai wins]

Total for ES/Psychic: 41.2% Indra win, 58.8% nagai win

AE – ExtremeSpeed on Skarmory switch

Lucario takes LO recoil and is now at 68.125%
Basically, if Lucario gets in against Skarmory, it can SD for free since Skarmory doesn’t have attacks. After SD, ES deals 25.5% - 30% to Jirachi. The most HP Jirachi can have when it faces Lucario is 24.45% (if it switches into Lucario as it uses SD, since then it takes SR but also gains Leftovers, as opposed to if it switches in after a death). This line results in a 100% win for Indra, so he just has to get Lucario a free turn against Skarmory.

If he uses Swords Dance after Skarmory switches into ExtremeSpeed, he wins. If Skarmory doesn’t Whirlwind, Close Combat will OHKO Skarmory and ExtremeSpeed will KO Jirachi. If Skarmory uses Whirldwind, Swampert just has to let itself get Whirlwinded out again. Lucario will take 7/32 from 2 Spikes + SR three times throughout the entire game (switch in vs Jirachi, switch in after Swampert gets hit by Whirlwind, switch in after Swampert dies), which puts it at well over enough HP to attack twice.

Total for ES/Skarmory: 100% Indra win

BD – Swords Dance on Psychic

Lucario is at 78.125% when it switches in and Psychic deals 69.4% - 82.2%, which means Lucario has a 31.8% chance of surviving [68.2% nagai win]
If Lucario survives, it dies the next turn to Life Orb recoil. With the extra turn of Leftovers recovery, Jirachi has 14.8% - 30.7%, while ExtremeSpeed deals 25.5% - 30%, which is a 4.4% chance to survive. nagai cannot switch to Skarmory to sponge ES since Swampert will stall itself out of Psychic KO range if it gets in for free. So nagai has to keep in Jirachi, and if it survives, nagai wins. [1.4% nagai win]
If it doesn’t, Indra wins. [30.4% Indra win]

Total for SD/Psychic: 30.4% Indra win, 69.6% nagai win

BE – Swords Dance on Skarmory switch

Covered above. [100% Indra win]

Total for SD/Skarmory: 100% Indra win

CD – Close Combat on Psychic

As covered above, Lucario has a 31.8% chance of surviving Psychic and setting up the Swampert vs Skarmory endgame. [31.8% Indra win]
If it doesn’t survive Psychic Jirachi sweeps. [68.2% nagai win]

Total for CC/Psychic: 31.8% Indra win, 68.2 nagai win

CE – Close Combat on Skarmory switch

Same as ES/Skarmory. [100% Indra win]

Total for ES/Skarmory: 100% Indra win

Summary:

If nagai switches to Skarmory and Indra plays correctly, he has a 100% win. Therefore nagai should use Psychic. Under this scenario, Indra has a 41.2% chance of winning if he uses ExtremeSpeed, 30.4% chance of winning if he uses Swords Dance, and a 31.8% chance of winning if he uses Close Combat.

The equilibrium position is for nagai to use Psychic and Indra to use ExtremeSpeed, which means nagai wins 58.8% of the time and Indra wins 41.2% of the time.

This was assuming both Hydro Pump hit Jirachi, and that Crobat did not wake up.

There’s a 64% chance for both Hydro Pumps to hit Jirachi, which translates into a 36% chance for nagai to win off the bat.

There’s a 33% chance for Crobat to wake up, which would only help if both Hydro Pump hit, which translates into a 21% chance for Indra to win.

If Hydro Pump hits and Crobat doesn’t wake up, that leaves the 58.8% / 41.2% split, which gives overall chances of 25% nagai win and 18% Indra win.

So from the position of roughly full HP Jirachi vs roughly full HP Starmie, there’s a 61% chance for nagai to win and a 39% chance for Indra to win. This doesn’t take into critical hits… so let’s just say the game was decided on a Jirachi Iron Head flinch roll :).
 

matty

I did stuff a long time ago for the site
is a Tournament Director Alumnusis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Battle Server Moderator Alumnus
I'm just gonna throw this out there but maybe we should give Stone a "Mouth Trophy" because he certainly has kept this entire tournament more interesting with his macropics/amazing rants.

:heart:

Just saying...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.