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Tunis: The domino effect :D (semi-serious)

Discussion in 'Congregation of the Masses' started by Adm. Empoleon, Jan 28, 2011.

  1. Adm. Empoleon

    Adm. Empoleon

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    so since Tunis revolted against their leader, Egypt and Yemen did the same. Tunisian people got what they want (almost), Yemen just started, and Egypt... well if you don't know, then you're fucking brainwashed.

    TL;DR version of what's happening: The people are fucking the system, the president and his family escaped, police are making random arrests, some are joining the people, and what was planned as a peaceful protest has exploded into total chaos.

    Recent events: (with the most recent at the top)
    -Police is withdrawing from Central cairo completely and leaving protesters....Freedom... :-)

    I can see protesters talking to policemen gently and trying to convince them to join

    -Aljazeera english now: Groups of Egyptian protesters in Tahrir are praying in hundreds in the streets now right infront of Ramses Hilton hotel, in Tahrir, Cairo.

    -Aljazeera: Military leaders declares: Curfew declared in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez. Army moved in to the national TV building. and their commander is that fucking pig named Mubarak.

    -Police are firing live rounds in the air in Tahrir, Central cairo now. Qasr El Nile bridge has flames of fire.

    -Aljazeera reporter in Alexandria: I cannot see a SINGLE policeman in Alex. Protesters are around 500 thousand (he said that). They are walking on Corniche street (next to the sea). Reporter is also saying: Protesters are arresting policemen (yes he said that) and when someone try to hit policemen, everyone else defends the policemen. Their only demand now in Alex is: Regime change.
    Freedom, Change & Justice.

    -Egyptian Army is now moving into Central Cairo....................... I don't know what will happen.... usually the Army is good..but...we just dont know...

    -From the guardian.
    Peter Bouckaert, emergencies director of Human Rights Watch, gives this detailed account of how police overwhelmed protesters in Alexandria today.

    After prayers, the protesters came out of a mosque and started shouting slog...ans. They were saying "peaceful, peaceful" and raising their hands. They were immediately attacked by police in an armoured car firing teargas. Fierce clashes started then, with exchanges of rock throwing. About 200 police faced about 1,000 protesters. The clashes lasted for nearly two hours. Then a much larger crowd of protesters came from another direction. They were packed in four blocks deep. Police tried to hold them back with teargas and rubber bullets, but they were finally overwhelmed.

    Then the police just gave up, at about the time of afternoon prayers. Protesters gave water to police and talked to them. It was was all peaceful. Hundreds of protesters were praying in the street.

    Now walking down to downtown Alexandria, the whole road is packed as far as we can see, people shouting slogans against [Hosni] Mubarak and his son Gamal. Asking others to join them. It is a very festive atmosphere. Women in veils, old men, children, I even saw a blind man being led. And there are no police anywhere

    -Alexandria, Suez, Damanhour, Monoufeya centers are under protesters control.

    Protests start in the tourist resourt Hurghada and the nice bit: Foreigners and tourists are joining protesters in the streets calling on Mubarak to go... :-) ...

    That's a physical international support.
    -Kafr AlDawar: Police station is burnt down. Protesters are now heading to town hall.
    Tahrir is on fire: Police there is very very brutal. hundreds of teargas canisters fired. protesters disperse and then gather again in different streets protesters split into 3 different areas.

    -Rawya Rageh, for al-Jazeera, says she has seen evidence of a protester killed in Alexandria, a bloody body being held aloft through the streets with people chanting "There is no God but God". She adds that police have now been overrun by protesters in the city.
    Aljazeera says: Portsaid has tens of thousands of protesters.
    Protesters break into police stations and free arrested protesters.

    -Damanhour centre is now under full control. Our control. Amn Al Dawla building has been burnt down. Amn Al Dawla are the notorious National security forces who specialise in torture of activists and political opponents. Also the ruling National unDemocratic Party building is destroyed in Damanhour.

    WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THE WHOLE SITUATION? COMMENT BELOW. THIS IS BOLDED AND IN CAPITAL LETTERS TO DRAW YOUR ATTENTION. NOT TO ANNOY YOU =P
  2. SMZ

    SMZ

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    So suddenly a man burns himself, and other people develop balls to rebel. It is indeed a domino effect, and Tunis didn't get what they want; they're in the process yes, but they still have a long way.

    I am by no means a man that follows politics, but that was my comment on what I did follow and felt about.

    Have a nice domino rebel days.
  3. Adm. Empoleon

    Adm. Empoleon

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    Neither am I, but this situation just got my attention. Plus i have a friend in Egypt who is participating =).
  4. Chubbs

    Chubbs

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    According to a friend of mine, Morocco will be next to go up in a shitstorm. This whole thing is pretty massive though, and it could go massively badly in any of the countries that it is happening in now.
  5. Killah

    Killah

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    I'm not really on top of this or anything, but it's just a matter of time before the Egyptian government has to concede to the people.

    Apparently, after sending the army into Cairo, many of them have either defected or are simply not doing anything to stop the protests. The Egyptian government has already taken away more freedoms of the people by disabling internet and SMS (text messaging) nationwide. If anything this will only inspire more people to take part of the protests. In addition, the police have remained brutal, even attacking the protestors with tear gas during the evening prayers and arresting a presidential candidate who was protesting with them. They are also beating and arresting journalists in the streets, including a BBC reporter and 4 French reporters.
  6. Staraptor Call

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    The events in the Middle East now are similar to those in Europe in 1848. 1848 was the "year or revolutions" in Europe, in which there was a wave of revolutions similar to the one currently sweeping the Middle East. Some of the revolutions succeeded in 1848 and others didn't, but the end result was the growth of nationalism in Europe as a whole. The European "year of revolutions" is the best precedent for what the Middle East is experiencing now, and could potentially offer clues as to how the "domino effect" in the Middle East will end.
  7. billymills

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    I think it's a start. I don't have any clue where it will lead though.

    Some of the countries may get quality change, but there's a chance the new government, whatever emerges, will only be marginally better than the previous one.

    My hope is that western countries try to remain as non-intervening as possible, the worst possible outcome is that they try to somehow steer the protests a certain way and it leaks out.
  8. Deck Knight

    Deck Knight Well-shuffled and flush
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    As bad as Mubarak is, a lot of the crap in the background is being orchestrated by the Muslim Brotherhood, which is basically just another Al Queada type organization.

    Democracy remains mob rule, and if the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood have their way and Yemen falls, then Islamist radicals will control both sides of the Suez Canal.

    This is a very serious situation with global ramifications. If you think the system is fucked when a secularist dictator like Mubarak is in charge, you just wait and see what having the kind of radicalized Hamas-style violent radicals running the country as a mob will do.

    Whatever happens at the end of all this, it's going to have serious consequences not just for Egypt but the entire world.
  9. cookie

    cookie Administrator
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    start buying in oil commodities
  10. Umbreon Dan

    Umbreon Dan 〉λ=
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    dude are you actually there?? that is so cool, i've always sort of dreamed of being a part of something like this ;_;

    i'm kind of expecting libya to go too, they have severe human rights issues.

    those of you with twitter should follow @ioerror and @evgenymorozov and also @ninedotnine
  11. cookie

    cookie Administrator
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    i think "see" there is meant as "imagine" lol
  12. Adm. Empoleon

    Adm. Empoleon

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    cookie, i am dissapoint =S

    @Dan: here's where i get my news. My friend is there, he says that they're finally getting what they wanted: a fair election and a fair ruler.

    @DK: the fuck? the muslim brotherhood doesn't have anything to do with it, hell, christians are even helping muslims by guarding them while they pray. are you trying to tell me that the brotherhood forced them to do that?

    @Staraptor Cell: I think the more appropriate example to relate this to is the Great Arabian Revolution.
  13. Deck Knight

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    I see. So it was all those peaceful guys setting shit on fire, then?

    The Muslim Brotherhood and groups like it love this power vacuum chaos stuff. Just toss a few idealists a democracy bone and the thought that there have been plenty of democratically elected tyrants doesn't even enter their minds. The question is, what kind of "fair ruler" arises from all of this? Will it be like the Iranian Revolution where you end up with the Ayatollahs?

    Not saying it's ging to happen, but the Islamist influence in Egypt is strong and again, as bad as Mubarak is, there are considerably worse alternatives for stability in the Middle East. Replace Mubarak with someone like an Achmadinejad and you'll just shuffle around the various human rights abuses, democratic elections or no.
  14. Umbreon Dan

    Umbreon Dan 〉λ=
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    doctors in cairo have been told not to record deaths by bullets.

    with no police, civilians are directing traffic :}

    [​IMG]

    some good photos here and videos here

    another follow recommendation for twitter folks: @SultanAlQassemi
  15. Chubbs

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    Holy shit, that probably means that shit in Egypt is going to hit the fan pretty fast if they aren't recording deaths by bullets, letting the army kill who they want to control the people.
  16. Adm. Empoleon

    Adm. Empoleon

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    shit hit the fan when the protest turned into this chaos =S
  17. evan

    evan I did my best -- I have no regrets
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    The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt are the largest opposition party to the regime of Mubarak. However, they have sworn off organised violence since around the time of Sadat's assassination. Further, when you discuss rising Islamist sentiment, you need to think in context. Egypt has been a very secular state throughout its history, preferring Arab nationalism and Egyptian nationalism as guiding ideologies. When you have a secular dictator oppressing the people, it is easy to see how in a majority muslim country the reaction of he oppressed is to become more religious as a means of protest.

    You can look at the events of 1979 in Iran as a similar example where an American supported, secular dictator eventually is overthrown by rising popular sentiment and a notably anti-American, Islamist (Shi'a in this case) government is set up.

    As a student of foreign policy, I have been wrestling with "the Egypt Question" for the past four days or so. Egypt is a valuable ally in the region, has a significant peace treaty with Israel, and is in control of the Suez Canal, an important piece of the global trade economy. Losing Egypt to an anti-American Egyptian government would be immediately "less good" for our interests abroad than if the Mubarak regime remained for a while longer.

    However, when I begin to think about the contextual reasons, I can't help but come to the conclusion that the Egyptian people have shown that they are finally ready to stand up and revolt, putting a time limit on Mubarak's regime. It is possible that this rage will simmer down with a harsh enough crackdown and enough time, but it is clear that Mubarak's regime has been greatly weakened and the citizens are no longer as scared as they used to be to protest. For this reason, I think it is in America's best interest to support the protestors and push for legitimate democratic reforms in Egypt to ensure that all different views get a voice in a new Egyptian government. Yes, that will result in likely a majority for a party that is Islamist and anto-American, but done right you can also give voice to the other minorities that exist in Egypt and attempt to escape the trap that we fell into during the Iranian revolution (probably because of the Cold War) where we clung far too long to an oppressive dictator whose legitimacy was never accepted by the people and thus tarnished our image in their political thinking.

    Further, should the new Egyptian government turn out to be just as authoritarian and unaccepting of democratic reforms and dissent, well, we saw what happened in Iran. Similar to the Mubarak regime in Egypt, Ahmadinejad's time in Iran is running up. If governments can't respond to the needs and desires of the people, time and time again we will see them fall no matter how hard they try to oppress them.

    tl;dr: Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood have a long and storied past. Mubarak is an American ally but his regime is on its deathbed so American assistance propping him up will be better for us in the short term but much worse in the long. America should support the push for major democratic reforms in Egypt and face the inevitable.

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