Typical Movesets used in September

Discussion in 'Pokémetrics' started by X-Act, Oct 18, 2008.

  1. X-Act

    X-Act np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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    I decided to write a program that takes Doug's move usage statistics of Pokemon and converts them to a typical moveset used by that Pokemon during September.

    Before I unveil the movesets, first I must explain how this program works.

    Suppose Move 1 is used with probability p1 and Move 2 is used with probability p2. Without loss of generality, let's assume p1>p2. What is the probability that p1 and p2 are in the same moveset? This doesn't have an exact answer, unfortunately, but it does have a maximum and a minimum.
    The maximum probability that both Moves 1 and 2 are in the same moveset is p2. This will happen if every moveset containing Move 2 also happens to contain Move 1.

    The minimum probability is a bit more difficult to calculate. Suppose, as an example, that p1 = 70% and p2 = 40%. The worst case one can get is that 70% of the movesets have Move 1 and all the remaining 30% of the movesets have Move 2. However, since 40% of the movesets have Move 2, and not 30%, the remaining 10% must be in movesets among the 70% that have Move 1. Thus we see that the minimum probability that Moves 1 and 2 are together in the same moveset would be 10% in this case. We found this probability by calculating 70% + 40% - 100% = 10%.

    It might happen that p1 and p2 don't sum up to a number greater than 100%. In that case, the minimum probability that Moves 1 and 2 are together would be 0, which means that it might happen that they never occur together in the same moveset.

    So, to summarise:
    Code:
    Maximum probability that two moves are together in the same moveset = min(p1,p2)
    Minimum probability that two moves are together in the same moveset = max(p1+p2-1,0)
     
    where p1 and p2 are the probabilities that Moves 1 and 2 are in a moveset respectively.
    Notice that if p1+p2 is greater than 1, we have a guarantee that at least one moveset contained Moves 1 and 2 together.

    Using a similar argument, we can find the maximum and minimum probabilities for three moves to be together in the same moveset:
    Code:
    Maximum probability that three moves are together in the same moveset = min(p1,p2,p3)
    Minimum probability that three moves are together in the same moveset = max(p1+p2+p3-2,0)
     
    where pn is the probability that Move n is in a moveset.
    and also those for four moves:
    Code:
    Maximum probability that four moves are together in the same moveset = min(p1,p2,p3,p4)
    Minimum probability that four moves are together in the same moveset = max(p1+p2+p3+p4-3,0)
     
    where pn is the probability that Move n is in a moveset.
    Again, this implies that if p1+p2+p3+p4 is greater than 3, then we have a guarantee that at least one player used a moveset containing Moves 1, 2, 3 and 4.

    The program would thus simply search for the minimum number of moves whose sum of their probabilities of being in a moveset exceeds 3. This minimum number might not be four. If it is not four (say, it is six), then it means that a moveset containing 4 of these 6 moves is certain to have been used by a player.

    Let's illustrate this idea by creating a typical moveset for Abomasnow used in the Standard ladder:
    Code:
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Blizzard         |    76.2 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Leech Seed       |    68.0 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Substitute       |    53.7 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Focus Punch      |    35.0 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Wood Hammer      |    33.0 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Protect          |    27.6 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Ice Shard        |    23.4 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Earthquake       |    16.0 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Grass Knot       |    12.4 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Seed Bomb        |     8.6 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Swords Dance     |     7.6 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Energy Ball      |     7.5 |
    | Abomasnow  | Move         | Other (9)        | <   6.8 |
    Doug's statistics conveniently sorts the usage of moves in descending order. So we start with Blizzard, having a 76.2% chance of being in a moveset. The most used move is automatically written to be the first move in the typical moveset:
    Code:
    - Blizzard
    -
    -
    -
    Next, we have Leech Seed with 68%. Summing 76.2% with 68%, we get 144.2%. Since this exceeds 100%, it means that there must exist a player having used an Abomasnow having Blizzard and Leech Seed in his or her moveset. Thus, we have, so far:
    Code:
    - Blizzard
    - Leech Seed
    -
    -
    Next we have Substitute, whe 53.7% of usage. 53.7% + 144.2% = 197.9%. Argh... we're just short of 200%. This means that we don't have a guarantee that an Abomasnow moveset contained Blizzard, Leech Seed and Substitute in the same moveset. Hence, we go to the next move, Focus Punch, with 35%. 35% + 197.9% = 232.9%. This time we surpass the 200% mark. This means that we have a guarantee that three of the four moves Blizzard, Leech Seed, Substitute and Focus Punch are among the first three moves of a typical Abomasnow moveset. We can write this as:
    Code:
    - Blizzard
    - Leech Seed
    - Substitute
    -
     
    Comments:
    * Focus Punch can replace any of the first three moves listed.
    We now continue. Wood Hammer has 33% of usage. 232.9% + 33% = 265.9%... still a long way to go to exceed 300%. So we continue with Protect, having 27.6% probability. 265.9% + 27.6% = 293.5%... again not quite 300%. Finally, Ice Shard has probability 23.4%. 293.5% + 23.4% = 316.9%, exceeding 300%. So we now have a guarantee that a typical Abomasnow moveset consists of four moves out of Blizzard, Leech Seed, Substitute, Focus Punch, Wood Hammer, Protect and Ice Shard. We can write this down as
    Code:
    - Blizzard
    - Leech Seed
    - Substitute
    - Wood Hammer
     
    Comments:
    * Focus Punch can replace any of the first three moves listed.
    * Protect and Ice Shard can replace any of the four moves listed.
    That's all there is to it!

    So here are the typical movesets of all Pokemon used in September, in the Standard, UU, Uber and Suspect ladders. There are also sorted in order of usage for your convenience. If you want to search for a Pokemon, hit Ctrl-F as usual.

    Typical Movesets in Standard Ladder
    Typical Movesets in UnderUsed Ladder
    Typical Movesets in Uber Ladder
    Typical Movesets in Suspect Ladder

    As Doug likes to say, "happy stat hunting!" :)
  2. Zoro

    Zoro

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    Wow.. thanks for that..

    Its just awesome.

    lols... some pkm are always used with the same set.
  3. Havak

    Havak I'm the Best. You're a Towel.
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    Crazy work X, very useful.
  4. M Dragon

    M Dragon The north wind
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    Excelent job
    Awesome, and useful
  5. newbioform

    newbioform

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    This is awesome work X-Act. Veryy useful indeed.
  6. jrrrrrrr

    jrrrrrrr wubwubwub
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    Wow, this is pretty awesome. Thanks, gj x-act!

    Would you be able to come up with a similar stat sheet that includes item, nature and ev spread usage as well? I don't imagine that it would be a stretch from what you have here currently and I think it would bring up just as interesting results.
  7. Astamatitos

    Astamatitos

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    This will definetely come in handy. Good job ;)
  8. X-Act

    X-Act np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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    Well, regarding item, all I can really do is Choice Band/Leftovers/Choice Scarf or something like that.

    Regarding EVs and Nature, I already did this once, for the July stats I believe. I might run the program again for these stats if people are interested.
  9. Venom

    Venom out on bail
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    amazing like always
  10. joshua

    joshua

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    Wow, this looks great!

    Any way to tell which Hidden Power type it is?
  11. MKDSJedi

    MKDSJedi

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    go Hoothoot@
  12. Blue Kirby

    Blue Kirby Never back down.
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    This is brilliant - you never fail to amaze me X-Act.
  13. darkie

    darkie Uglison Brie
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    Awesome, X-Act. I love stat hunting x)
  14. kd24

    kd24 people be stoopid
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    I really hope people can see why this is so useful. Now you can actually make sure your team deals with certain threats even better than before as well as see which sets are the most commonly used.
  15. DougJustDoug

    DougJustDoug Knows the great enthusiasms
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    This is great stuff, X-Act. What a wonderful adjunct to the usage statistics -- I love it!

    If you linked this in with a list of move data (move type, BP, attack/support, etc.) then you might be able to get more targeted with your "replacements" for attacks. For example with Garchomp:

    With move data, you could determine that Outrage and Dragon Claw are both physical Dragon attacks. Based on that, you could conclude that Dragon Claw is really only a replacement for Outrage. You could even "slash" the moveslot, like in Smogon analyses.

    Using the same logic, it's obvious that Fire Blast is really a replacement for Flamethrower.

    Creating a move database and linking into it, could be more of a pain than it's worth. Just a suggestion to consider.
  16. X-Act

    X-Act np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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    That's the output of the program when its input is:

    Code:
    .
    .
    .
    | Honchkrow  | Move         | Dark Pulse       |     9.7 |
    | Honchkrow  | Move         | Psych Up         |     8.6 |
    | Honchkrow  | Move         | Other (9)        | <   7.8 |
    [B]+------------+--------------+------------------+---------+[/B]
    [B]| Hoothoot   | Usage        | 1                |         |[/B]
    [B]+------------+--------------+------------------+---------+[/B]
    | Hoppip     | Usage        | 6                |         |
    | Hoppip     | Ability      | Leaf Guard       |   100.0 |
    | Hoppip     | Item         | Pure Incense     |   100.0 |
    .
    .
    .
    Lol.


    Edit: To Doug, I'll consider that. However, I don't know if moves of the same type only replace each other. For example, I think a move like Sucker Punch can be in the same moveset as Dark Pulse, or Draco Meteor can be in the same moveset as Dragon Claw, or Eruption can be in the same moveset as Overheat, or Water Spout can be in the same moveset as Surf. So, really, I don't know how to do this in a smart way.
  17. Blue Kirby

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    The only issue I can see with that lies within the fact that double STAB is an option for a many Pokemon, especially when using a Choice item. If Garchomp was holding a Choice Band, for example, Dragon Claw would be replacing Swords Dance, not Outrage.
  18. DougJustDoug

    DougJustDoug Knows the great enthusiasms
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    Yeah, I guess it's not quite as straightforward as I thought. Probably not worth the trouble.

    As for the Hoothoot thing, I'll go through my stats program and fix the glitch. I'll probably just exclude all details for pokemon with a very small number of usages.
  19. twash

    twash
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    Wow X-Act, never fail to produce new, brilliant goods.

    Thanks so much! (:
  20. Imran

    Imran
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    Smogon is suddenly churning out stats, upon stats upon stats, which is awesome for stats junkies like me. Although Stats modules suck, actually hunting through useful POkemon stats like this is actually really useful.

    Keep up the Good Work DJD and X-Act!

    EDIT: SD Luke anyone?

    EDIT 2: And someone had fun with Rhyhorn

  21. Hipmonlee

    Hipmonlee Have a rice day
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    Uhh.. Wouldnt Blizzard, Leechseed, sub, focus punch be the most likely set here, and wouldnt that be not allowed with the options you listed?

    Have a nice day.
  22. phalanx

    phalanx

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    this will be handy for team building, either as a guide in what moves to replace (surprise factor) or work a team around, i will be keeping an eye on this
  23. Everstone

    Everstone Now 100% reliable
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    I find this rather disturbing. It's in the Uber section
    62. BLASTOISE (Usages: 80)

    Typical moveset:
    - Hydro Pump
    - Hydro Cannon
    - Hyper Beam
    - Surf
  24. X-Act

    X-Act np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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    The set with the minimum amount of moves and options that's guaranteed to have been used by someone is

    Blizzard / Focus Punch / Protect / Ice Shard
    Leech Seed / Focus Punch / Protect / Ice Shard
    Substitute / Focus Punch / Protect / Ice Shard
    Wood Hammer / Protect / Ice Shard

    The program searches for movesets with the minimum number of moves and options possible that are guaranteed to have been used by a player. Adding Focus Punch to the fourth moveslot above as an option would obviously make the moveset possible to exist as well, but the set would have more options, and the program tries to avoid that.

    In essence, the program is not finding which moveset is the most common (this is impossible to find, unfortunately). It's finding a moveset that is guaranteed to have been used by a percentage of players.
  25. gorm

    gorm
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    so awesome. this is a huge help to metagame analysis x____X

    amazing work and thank you

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