Uber voting ratios - revisited

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Aeolus

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My only bias in this debate is one of pragmatism and I've read the whole thing over. Like so many people have eloquently stated, polls aren't perfect... but they are the best we have. Certainty is unattainable and reasonable people will always disagree on the specifics.

At some point, waffling because of uncertainty becomes irresponsible. I think we are starting to push that threshold.
 

Jumpman16

np: Michael Jackson - "Mon in the Mirror" (DW mix)
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This test isnt about what people want, or else you would never have had to have polled anyones reasoning. In this context people are using the word broken to mean "far too powerful to be in line with a balanced metagame" which is exactly what this suspect test is about.
I was using Tangerine's words there, obviously. What people "want" should be in line with our philosophy, or else we could just have people voting to keep things out of standard because they aren't easy to get ingame or something. And such anomalies are addressed by the fact that we...

I am a qualified player, and if you were to poll only me we would have an extremely biased majority that nobody should accept. The point here is that any poll is imperfect (some moreso than others). But that it is better to err on the side of more testing when there is a reasonable likelihood that the vote gave a false result (based on our definition of uber).
...ask the opinion of more than one person. Even if I could chastise you openly for not being able to comprehend our Characteristics of Uber that have been stickied at the top of this forum all year long and that you are in de facto agreement with by playing on the Smogon server, it wouldn't really be nice for or fair of me to do that if your singular vote didn't make up, say, 3% of the total pool, right? (Hypothetically, of course.)

We keep testing until no suspects are voted uber.

If a pokemon cant get two simple majorities in a row on this test then it clearly isnt "very apparent" enough that it is "far too powerful to be in line with a balanced metagame".

The argument for a supermajority is essentially the same except it is slightly less clear that it isnt "very apparent" enough, but obviously still clear enough for a lot of people (this isnt the course of action I support here).
What I was getting at is that it seems possible for testing to stretch to Stages 3-3 and 3-4 on the same "statistical anomaly" deal that upset Garchomp's simple majority in the first place (which would be for the same reason these are Suspects in the first place), but I'm prepared to let things play out and hope I'm wrong.

But manaphy will be retested and latios was voted uber by more than 9 votes. The point of the supermajority is to protect from this sort of thing, to increase the likelihood (to a point where there are reasonable doubts as to its legitimacy) that, even though the poll (like all polls) is imperfect, the pokemon will only be considered uber if it meets our definition of uber.

Have a nice day.
I actually meant Skymin not Manaphy (which is clear when you take it from the context of the paragraph above, both pokemon were voted uber in Stage 3-1). Regardless, things become shady when we don't know what "supermajority" we are striving towards until after the fact, which is the reason I kept posting in this thread to make sure this was addressed before Stage 3-2 concluded and not just a vague "later".

Anyway, after a chat on IRC, we've decided to test Garchomp in Stage 3-2 as soon as Doug is available and can restart the server. I look forward to the completion of another round, and as always, implore the rest of you who have posting privileges in this forum to use them as soon as you deem it necessary to avoid unnecessary delays to changes on pokémon policy.
 

Hipmonlee

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What I was getting at is that it seems possible for testing to stretch to Stages 3-3 and 3-4 on the same "statistical anomaly" deal that upset Garchomp's simple majority in the first place (which would be for the same reason these are Suspects in the first place), but I'm prepared to let things play out and hope I'm wrong.
What I was getting at is everyone in this thread understands this fact. We all realise this could happen and have cast our votes with that knowledge. You specifically asked what should be done and no one else had answered that I had noticed.

I am quite happy with a pokemon being declared uber when a majority of qualified people believe it to be uber. However, I feel a supermajority, or double simple majority is still appropriate because of potential flaws in the voting system. The point isnt that 60% of qualified people need to believe something is uber, but that we need to be certain that more than 50% of people do.

Also it would be very unfair of you to chastise me for not understanding the characteristics of an uber because I understand them very well.

Have a nice day.
 

Aeolus

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After a long chat last night, two simple majorities in the same stage was determined to be the criteria for declaring a pokemon uber. As that also received a large portion of the votes in this thread, I think that is a good way to move forward.
 

Jumpman16

np: Michael Jackson - "Mon in the Mirror" (DW mix)
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I will add that if any Suspect reaches the TBD "critical" majority in Proposal 3 it will be declared uber and removed from any further Stage 3 testing.

What I was getting at is everyone in this thread understands this fact. We all realise this could happen and have cast our votes with that knowledge. You specifically asked what should be done and no one else had answered that I had noticed.
There's a few things I could say to this but I will just mention that if, before actually starting Stage 3, our community had known upfront that the Stage could take seven months to complete, there may have been a different attitude and a heightened sense of urgency from all parties involved. It has been over 4½ months since Stage 2 concluded and we have still yet to wrap up the first round of Stage 3-1. At the very least we could have avoided this unnecessary stoppage that will have delayed us two weeks by itself when all is said and done.

I am quite happy with a pokemon being declared uber when a majority of qualified people believe it to be uber. However, I feel a supermajority, or double simple majority is still appropriate because of potential flaws in the voting system. The point isnt that 60% of qualified people need to believe something is uber, but that we need to be certain that more than 50% of people do.
Am I supposed to regard the remark about "potential flaws in the voting system" as unfair and unsubstantiated, or do I actually have to ask you to address this as soon as you deem it necessary to avoid unnecessary delays to changes on pokémon policy? Didn't I literally just post that?

Also it would be very unfair of you to chastise me for not understanding the characteristics of an uber because I understand them very well.

Have a nice day.
Any chastisement would only come if one were actually serious when he or she openly stated, after the fact, that it's likely a vote gave a false result based on our definition of uber. Should I not have given you the benefit of the doubt on having been speaking completely hypothetically yourself?
 

Hipmonlee

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Am I supposed to regard the remark about "potential flaws in the voting system" as unfair and unsubstantiated, or do I actually have to ask you to address this as soon as you deem it necessary to avoid unnecessary delays to changes on pokémon policy? Didn't I literally just post that?
Potential flaws are due to the fact that at some level the cut offs for voter selection are arbitrary. If they were in any way arbitrary and with a close result it is entirely plausible that a similar and equally arbitrary cutoff point for qualification could have had an effect on the result of the test. I had thought Colin had explained this already in this thread, but apparently he only did so on irc.

Any chastisement would only come if one were actually serious when he or she openly stated, after the fact, that it's likely a vote gave a false result based on our definition of uber. Should I not have given you the benefit of the doubt on having been speaking completely hypothetically yourself?
I'm sorry I dont see the connection between this and understanding of the characteristics. It is entirely possible that we could have come to a false result, I wouldnt use the term likely, but I would say likely enough that we should err on the side of caution when proceeding. So I wasnt being hypothetical in that sense.

Have a nice day.
 
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