UK and the EU referendum

[Cresselia~~]

Sorry, I know that I'm not good at making posts like this, but it seems that no one else is willing to make a post.
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Basically, it is to vote whether UK should remain in the EU.

They are counting the votes now, and at the moment, votes to leave EU seem to dominate.
http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

I'm really worried about UK and its future.
UK had been economically unwell for these 10 years, to the point that they agreed to have China to build a Nuclear plant! UK seems to have been kowtowing to China in many ways in recent years.
If UK economy was great, it wouldn't need to do this.
I just think that UK would be even more economically unstable if it leaves EU. (Though I may be wrong. I'm not sure.)

Also, if UK leaves EU, it means that British people can't choose to live in other EU countries anymore. Working for other EU countries due to better opportunities will no longer be a thing.

Tuition fees for university is another concern. It means EU will cut the funding towards UK universities, right?

 

[Adamant Zoroark]

"Dominating?" This isn't exactly some kind of landslide victory like the US presidential election of 1984. It's still too close to call at this point.

I'm not British, so I'm not gonna sit here and pretend to know what's best for the UK. From an outside perspective, though, it seems like the whole thing popped up based on growing anti-immigration sentiment (UKIP) and just in general, euroskepticism (sorry Brits for botching your language, I agree American spellings are stupid, what the fuck is a metre though) seems to be more prevalent in the UK than any other European country.

To be honest, to me the arguments for both sides do seem to be a bit exaggerated, but I think that of a lot of things.

 

[Chou Toshio]

Why bother speculating at this point when the real results will be out in days, if not hours?

 

[Bughouse]

Nah it's over. There aren't enough votes left in London to catch up. Leave wins.

On the plus side I no longer ever have to take any shit from English people about how stupid Americans are. Scots are ok.

 

[TheFourthChaser]

Ok I'm not too knowledgeable (but curious!) on the subject so feel free to call me out.

I was under the impression the British economy was very good, a quick Google search puts the GBP as the 4th strongest currency atm. If the Pound were weaker than the Euro it wouldn't make any sense that the UK were seriously considering leaving the EU, at least under the what I believe to be common thought that strong currency = strong economy. By leaving the EU, doesn't the UK benefit because of greater control of their own wealth and resources? Isn't the EU the one actually harmed by this decision?

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

welp brits are leaving the EU this should be interesting

 

[Cresselia~~]

British pounds' value tumbles down.
What have you guys done. Omg.

 

[Cresselia~~]

Ok I'm not too knowledgeable (but curious!) on the subject so feel free to call me out.

I was under the impression the British economy was very good, a quick Google search puts the GBP as the 4th strongest currency atm. If the Pound were weaker than the Euro it wouldn't make any sense that the UK were seriously considering leaving the EU, at least under the what I believe to be common thought that strong currency = strong economy. By leaving the EU, doesn't the UK benefit because of greater control of their own wealth and resources? Isn't the EU the one actually harmed by this decision?

Strong currency doesnt mean shit
Uk economy is horrible

And this is totally not the main reason for the vote

 

[Chou Toshio]

Ok I'm not too knowledgeable (but curious!) on the subject so feel free to call me out.

I was under the impression the British economy was very good, a quick Google search puts the GBP as the 4th strongest currency atm. If the Pound were weaker than the Euro it wouldn't make any sense that the UK were seriously considering leaving the EU, at least under the what I believe to be common thought that strong currency = strong economy. By leaving the EU, doesn't the UK benefit because of greater control of their own wealth and resources? Isn't the EU the one actually harmed by this decision?

I have more thoughts on the situation, but just FYI, strong currency =/= strong economy.

Strong currency does mean strong trust and buying power-- the country has the trust to issue more debt or currency, and consumers/companies can buy more stuff internationally.

The flip side is it also means your stuff is really expensive internationally, so an expensive currency can be disastrous for an export economy (one where the businesses and industries derive their revenue from foreign sales).

The strength of an economy is pretty subjective and there are a lot of ways to evaluate an economy-- but in regards to currency, generally you are looking for enough economic activity/growth/scale to keep people employed and productive, while balancing the need for enough buying power to keep consumers happy with the product set in their daily lives.

These things are in balance--

The weaker (cheaper) your currency is, the more exports you can do, which means more economic activity, more productivity, higher employment.

The stronger (more expensive) your currency is the more buying power you have. It's a big part of why those toy cars from China at Walmart are a lot cheaper than if made in the US. So a stronger currency means you can buy more stuff, but you have less exports, and fewer jobs.

A "stronger" (better) economy is one that finds a balance that fits its citizens needs.

 

[TheFourthChaser]

Strong currency doesnt mean shit
Uk economy is horrible

And this is totally not the main reason for the vote

...so what is "the main reason for the vote"? Though I don't expect this to be as simple as a single issue it seems economic reasoning has undeniably strong influence here, even what is essentially the beginner's guide to the EU Referendum (source: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887) brings up economic factors as a huge issue on both sides. The OP to THIS thread is solely economic reasoning. Apparently the UK loses "billions of pounds a year in membership fees for little return."

From the above link, it makes sense Britain would want out considering their investment in the EU wasn't paying off. Assuming this is true, fair enough... until I see that it appears Scotland is just getting screwed as it was denied access to its own resources. Current voting trends establish that Scotland supported remaining in the EU. It seems shady that the entirety of the UK voted on Scottish independence while the UK was free to decide its own independence from the EU.

Chou Toshio -Ok that's good to know, thanks! I'd like to hear your thoughts on this as well. Do you believe this to be a detriment to the UK's economy? It seems to me there is a negative short-term reaction but I can see this working out in the long term.

 

[Martin]

Our generation is going to be hit the hardest by this. The economy has plummeted in the space of a few hours all because of this utter joke of politics, and I don't think that we are going to be able to do anything to recover from this for an extremely long time--if at all. I think it's disgusting that the generation which is going to be affected by this had a supermajority stay vote (75% iirc) while the generation which aren't going to feel the repercussions are voting to leave and won in this fucking disgrace of a campaign, and this is going to completely screw this generation over. Modern politics is a disgrace both including and excluding this vote of idiocy, Jeremy Corbyn should be sacked for not giving his party a voice to follow, Michael Gove--who is a fucking joke of a politician who has somehow gained power--has got an ego boost when his ego was already overinflated. David Cameron should be disgraced for even allowing this idiotic event to happen.

 

[Billy the Uncle]

I was under the impression that every economist/economy expert around the world was pro-Remain. I've never heard of one backing the Leave campaign, but it might be because of mass media being biased.

I believe that most people didn't consider economy when voting. London is one of the world's biggest financial centers and Remain polled like 60% in the City. As usual, in these matters guts, national pride and such play a major role. I might be wrong, of course, but that's what I feel.

The timing of the vote also affected the outcome. If this had happened, say, 10 years ago, Remain would have probably won. In this times dominated by news of terrorism, migrations, economic crisis and yadda yadda yadda (we all know the drill), it is very tempting to blame "others" and say "we're better off on our own". That's what a lot of nationalist, "separatist" movements use to justify their ideas.

The greatest fear I have now is that other countries might use this as a precedent and attempt similar to quit the EU. I'm an EU citizen myself and I'd hate to see more countries go.

 

[aVocado]

can someone tell me what's immigration got to do with uk leaving the eu?

 

[Gabe]

Feels like scary times in Britain. I fear that there will be violent outbursts from this.

 

[Sapientia]

can someone tell me what's immigration got to do with uk leaving the eu?

One of the most important arguments of the Brexit side was the EU's freedom of movement for workers. This led to a lot of polish, bulgarian, etc. people coming to the UK for working. And since this point is not up for discussion within the EU, some people wanted to leave in order to regulate immigration from other EU countries.
But since they will want - and have - to participate in the european market similiar to how Switzerland and Norway do and both of this countries had to accept the freedom of movement for workers in order to do so and there is no way that UK gets better conditions, because Brussels will want to avoid a precedent. Therefore the UK won't get rid of that anyways, but as usual facts don't matter when the people get to vote, which is the reason why direct democracy is a shit.

 

[erisia]

How pretty much everyone I know is reacting at the moment.

 

[Chou Toshio]

TheFourthChaser -- gotcha

First off, let me say-- thank you Britain for empowering the yen; I now have every reason to move my daughters' Japanese savings towards buying dollars so that I can put it in her US mutual fund--

--assuming Britain didn't just tank the world economy and duck up any reason to invest right now; will be holding out on investing until markets stable, but definitely buying my dollars NOW.



As for the long term view-- this will inevitably hurt the British economy. Separating from the EU means more trade restrictions-- a higher cost to do business. Britain's move to block immigration also means expected drops in productivity. From a broad standpoint, Britain can definitely expect to see a drop in GDP. Whether it's from having fewer workers, to fewer exports, to seeing homegrown companies leave for the EU.

BUT there is potential for the average Brittish citizen to end up better off-- depends on how the social programs/entitlements work themselves out.

People have said that migrants are a drain on Britain's welfare state; I haven't seen the economic data to back that up, but you might make an argument for a higher universality of English and knowledge of British business practices within the workforce leading to greater efficiency; and combined with cutting away from excess labor surplus could result in a higher GDP per capita-- therefore leaving more services per citizen or allowing the government to provide the same services for cheaper and give the people tax breaks. This is what the leave camp has to hope for.
(But frankly seems unlikely to me)

Also, there is something to be said about the value of cultural purism. That might sound like pure bigotry from the standpoint of a young country like Canada or the US-- but as a Japanese American living in Japan who treasures Japanese culture-- I can appreciate the sentiment. Britain is an old country, and more like Japan in that sense; with a strong heritage and tradition of sovereignty. Let's face it, Japan would be a very different country if 30% of the population became none-Japanese speaking Filipinos; the face and culture would necessarily change, and it would be a painful and uneasy transition. That's something I wouldn't want to see for MY ancestral country, but it's something that the native British have been dealing with to great frustration as of late. I can't simply write off their concerns as being closed-minded.

btw-- considering the US's history as part of the broader history in North America, not to mention its sheer size and and melting pot origin, I think totally differently about US immigration. But for countries like Britain or Japan, I'd say we're looking at much more grey moral issues when it comes to immigration vs native population and culture.

 

[Aladyyn]

Congratulations to the Brits, hopefully the whole process goes smoothly.

Hopefully we're able to follow in a couple of years :)

 

[Cresselia~~]

can someone tell me what's immigration got to do with uk leaving the eu?

That said above
But it intensified especially after UK was forced to take Syrian refugees
They even had data to back up on how crime rates increased, especially rape

 

[Aladyyn]

The greatest fear I have now is that other countries might use this as a precedent and attempt similar to quit the EU. I'm an EU citizen myself and I'd hate to see more countries go.

You're an "EU citizen"? Really?

I hope EU crumbles and dies so something better can rise from its ashes.

can someone tell me what's immigration got to do with uk leaving the eu?

Germany wants to force all countries to take in refugees and immigrants from Middle East because Merkel was shortsighted af with what she offered.

As for the economy, UK will be fine as long as EU doesn't go all jilted lover on them.

 

[Cresselia~~]

You're an "EU citizen"? Really?

I hope EU crumbles and dies so something better can rise from its ashes.

Germany wants to force all countries to take in refugees and immigrants from Middle East because Merkel was shortsighted af with what she offered.

As for the economy, UK will be fine as long as EU doesn't go all jilted lover on them.

You trolling

Just compare the value of GBP yesterday and today
Enough said
You must beblind for not knowing that

 

[Aladyyn]

You trolling

Just compare the value of GBP yesterday and today
Enough said
You must beblind for not knowing that

Overreactions all over this thread

This hurts EU more than it hurts UK

 

[shade]

Aladyyn the pound just fell to its lowest point in 31 years following the result of this referendum, it is a reasonable argument and if you are going to respond please respond to it as such. I have already deleted one of your throwaway 'LOL everyone is overreacting' posts, so continuing to make them is only get you infracted lad.

 

[Martin]

Overreactions all over this thread

This hurts EU more than it hurts UK

The EU have openly said that they aren't scared for themselves by the UK leaving so idk what you're talking about. The UK is getting screwed over, which is much bigger a deal thn the EU until France potentially pull out.

 

[Aladyyn]

Aladyyn the pound just fell to its lowest point in 31 years following the result of this referendum, it is a reasonable argument and if you are going to respond please respond to it as such. I have already deleted one of your throwaway 'LOL everyone is overreacting' posts, so continuing to make them is only get you infracted lad.

This was not an unexpected outcome. UK's economy level will barely change and in a couple months nobody will even remember anything like this happened.

The EU have openly said that they aren't scared for themselves by the UK leaving so idk what you're talking about. The UK is getting screwed over, which is much bigger a deal thn the EU until France potentially pull out.

Do you honestly believe they are not scared? Juncker is swearing in his chair this very moment because his blackmail attempts have failed. Everyone is saying EU needs to change but it can't feasibly change so it must die. UK will be fine, they don't need EU. None of us do.