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NOC WikiMafia 2 Game Thread [Day 2]

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Blizihguh said:
Well I also think trying to "solve the game" on D2 is a fool's errand lol

To me "solving the game" is like, "figuring out based on the mechanical information who must be town/scum, what the remaining scum roles are, how to lynch and use town night actions to go from the current situation to a town victory." Maybe you're using it differently but if you're putting together a list of town and saying that we should start killing people mostly based on PoE, I think it's too early for that. I'm not sure that actually is what you are saying though, obviously it's normal to be like "I think these people are town and I want to lynch someone who I don't think is town."

As for how I make progress in the early game -- it's important imo to identify a few people who you have confident reads on, talk about your reads and analysis, and interrogate other peoples' reads. Ofc there's also the mechanical side but I'm just talking about the reads here. Identifying a few people you're very confident are town can be a big help and in general townclearing people is very powerful, particularly because it helps with PoE later down the road.

But like, you have 9 people on your town list besides yourself. You have 17 potential lynch targets, and you're ruling out 9, so. If two of those reads are wrong, you have 4 mafia in your list of targets, which means the probability of getting it right based on PoE is 3/8. OTOH if you just pick randomly out of 17 potential targets, you have 5/17. You're trading 29% for 38%. Is that better? Yes, obviously, but we're talking about the case where you specifically got 7 out of 9 of your town reads correct. Do you trust yourself to read that many people correctly on D2? If you have three scum on your town list then your odds with PoE are actually worse than random! Personally, if I'm playing with experienced players who aren't braindead, I do not trust myself to get 7/9 of my town reads correct on D2. Maybe you're just built different, idk. At least some of the scum are trying to fool me into thinking they're town.

I just came back from teaching a Statistics class so sorry if that was a little overboard. Anyway, I've been posting my reads intermittently and trying to analyze the interactions between people. But just to summarize it in one place:
I think Psy and a fairy are town. Not a hard read at this point but my strongest town reads atm.

One of Psy/Tommy is very likely scum.

Pulsar and Peum both seem townie to me, not as strong as the above but I find myself agreeing with Peum a fair amount and I like that they're trying to resolve Psy/Tommy. Pulsar seems like they are genuinely trying to figure out the mechanics and I feel like if they were mafia they would probably just know what happened.

bd and liquid are both better than random odds of being scum, although it's hard for me to guess how much better bc I don't know how common it is for scum to not post for 24 hours in this community. I would imagine they will both get on and make some posts and then disappear again if they are scum.

I'm having trouble reading Phoopes but I think I will probably land somewhere on him soon enough at this rate

HydrogenHydreigon seemed kinda sus last time I looked but I have to stop typing this post soon and go do other things and I don't remember off the top of my head if they've said anything else since what I remember. Will check back later. I posted my thoughts on them before so defer back to that for now.

I think DbD is better than random to be scum, if only slightly, because I think I have a propensity to find this kind of player scummier than they are. If liquid or especially bd flips scum DbD will rocket up in my scum rankings though. I don't want to tell DbD what to do but I do think it's wild that they actually unvoted Psy and are now voting nobody when, fmpov, the two clear options are to either vote bd or one of Tommy/Psy. Instead they are, I guess, arguing that we should do neither of those things??
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id rather try to get 7/9 town correct by page 76 than not make an attempt in the first place especially bc i've been reading every single page

good post and i agree with you about DbD, he seems aimless. if you think psy is town and psy/tommy has one scum are you voting tommy then?
 
a fairy said:
oh tbc it isnt ai it's just a bad post by pulsar like, psy is right dont compare people to ai, drop that, and then pulsar makes a joke about banning des from the site bc she's ai? nah come on pulsar you have to be better than that
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no i mean it genuinely you guys should implement a rule about it. maybe i phrased it badly. i think des is very much human
 
Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
so like the content here isnt actually ai but i actually hate this pop in. pulsar512b saber dropped a vote on you and said youre his top scmread with zero explanation? Do you have any thoughts on that?

jk i dont have questions
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my thoughts on it is thati have no fucking clue why saber thinks that. my only ideas are that like. maybe he thinks im more active as mafia than town which lmao for so many reasons (i want to be more active in general just for a start, and i also prefer to reason about mech in general) or hes maf trying to push me bc i talk about mech a lot
 
genisu said:
Blizihguh what makes you think the psy tommy interaction is SvT and not just TvT
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Mechanically it seems like a complete clusterfuck which usually either means scum involvement or someone is lying. HH's claim is bizarre and does not convince me otherwise.

Social wise the vibe I've gotten off of the hood interactions are extremely sus. The apparent perception that Tommy wanted to keep the hood under wraps + Flandrs calling Psy a moron and leaving very much felt like scum performative to me, if I was town in either of their shoes I would 100% understand and expect Psy to do what they did. Also the fallout in thread since then is sus to me, often when a scum ends up in a 1v1 early the rest of the scum tries to downplay it, and I feel like thread has been largely ignoring this or calling it tvt, if it were actually tvt it would be much more distracting to town because all the scum would come in and talk about it lol. I guess this is kind of WIFOM but for D2 I think this is the best lead we're gonna get and I feel like the odds of it being tvt are at most 50%, which is much better than random or PoE is going to get us.
 
Popping in to unvote before I go to bed

##unvote: psypsypsypsypsythe

Pretty sure I was still on psy. I’m not all the way convinced he’s town yet but the last few pages have made me come around to the idea that the whole neighborhood is town
 
pulsar512b said:
thinking about it i definitely phrased that in like the worst way possible thats on me
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nah looking back i read it the way you intended but i just got swept up in talking about other stuff. youre all good dw

really do like the big post from bliz though i guess all it does is sort of just point out all of the people who are on the chopping block (bluedoom, liquid, tommy) or largely at odds with the consensus (dbd). and maybe those are indeed just the people who are evil but that feels easy of course
 
Blizihguh said:
Mechanically it seems like a complete clusterfuck which usually either means scum involvement or someone is lying. HH's claim is bizarre and does not convince me otherwise.

Social wise the vibe I've gotten off of the hood interactions are extremely sus. The apparent perception that Tommy wanted to keep the hood under wraps + Flandrs calling Psy a moron and leaving very much felt like scum performative to me, if I was town in either of their shoes I would 100% understand and expect Psy to do what they did. Also the fallout in thread since then is sus to me, often when a scum ends up in a 1v1 early the rest of the scum tries to downplay it, and I feel like thread has been largely ignoring this or calling it tvt, if it were actually tvt it would be much more distracting to town because all the scum would come in and talk about it lol. I guess this is kind of WIFOM but for D2 I think this is the best lead we're gonna get and I feel like the odds of it being tvt are at most 50%, which is much better than random or PoE is going to get us.
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i think hydro's role is weird but its like. not that insane right like. it explains the weird results a bunch of us got. i do not at all see the connection to his wiki article though so i do get that theres some chance hes lying
 
Blizihguh said:
Mechanically it seems like a complete clusterfuck which usually either means scum involvement or someone is lying. HH's claim is bizarre and does not convince me otherwise.

Social wise the vibe I've gotten off of the hood interactions are extremely sus. The apparent perception that Tommy wanted to keep the hood under wraps + Flandrs calling Psy a moron and leaving very much felt like scum performative to me, if I was town in either of their shoes I would 100% understand and expect Psy to do what they did. Also the fallout in thread since then is sus to me, often when a scum ends up in a 1v1 early the rest of the scum tries to downplay it, and I feel like thread has been largely ignoring this or calling it tvt, if it were actually tvt it would be much more distracting to town because all the scum would come in and talk about it lol. I guess this is kind of WIFOM but for D2 I think this is the best lead we're gonna get and I feel like the odds of it being tvt are at most 50%, which is much better than random or PoE is going to get us.
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phoopes said:
Popping in to unvote before I go to bed

##unvote: psypsypsypsypsythe

Pretty sure I was still on psy. I’m not all the way convinced he’s town yet but the last few pages have made me come around to the idea that the whole neighborhood is town
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this is a really funny two posts to be made back to back

maybe worth saying that i dont feel super confident in flandrs and tommy having scum equity with each other even if i can easily see worlds in which each of them are individually scum. i just have to wrap my head around why scum tommy would neighborize scum flandrs. was bliz the intended target and they wanted to good cop bad cop them into submission? was i the intended target here? i feel like that more than anything is tvs at worst
 
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