Pokemon Let's Go Speculate! (Beginning Phase)

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Theorymon

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Yo if it means much, from playing the broken 200 candies version (which I think may be more accurate, we've seen proof of a Pikachu in trailers with 114 more SpA than it would have normally), I think Belly Drum Megazard X may be the premier sweeper, since it 2HKOs everything and is pretty hard to KO itself.

I also think that this makes Dragon Tail phazers more appealing than usual, stuff like Rhydon and Mew!

I actually dont mind this metagame thus far, sorta reminds me of a bizzaro GSC. I can see why people dislike that though lol
 

Ivy

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Yo if it means much, from playing the broken 200 candies version (which I think may be more accurate, we've seen proof of a Pikachu in trailers with 114 more SpA than it would have normally), I think Belly Drum Megazard X may be the premier sweeper, since it 2HKOs everything and is pretty hard to KO itself.
I also think that this makes Dragon Tail phazers more appealing than usual, stuff like Rhydon and Mew!
I actually dont mind this metagame thus far, sorta reminds me of a bizzaro GSC. I can see why people dislike that though lol
Belly Drum Zard was my first thought after seeing Belly Drum Clefable, but I don't think it can learn the move in this game ):
 

Theorymon

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Something important to note in general: We are missing learnsets for these Pokemon. We saw in some datamined trainer teams that some of them were using egg moves, but we're not sure which egg moves have become part of the learnset yet! The only thing we truely know is what TMs they learn.

Also, I'd probably put Gyarados and Mew in the Dragon Tailers, since both of them can survive anything Mega Gyarados throws at them, which sounds huge since that's quite a nasty stall breaker!
 

Yung Dramps

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Aight, time for some banlist thoughts. Now, over the next few days/weeks there will likely be lots of debate over how the whole candy boost system works as we get more info, and whether it'll have to be banned/restricted in the future. What happens to it will affect our course of action.

If we ban candies or the system becomes less broken and uncompetitive, then there is nothing particularly broken IMO. The only potential troubles could be Snorlax honestly.

If we don't ban candies and it turns out they actually do allow 200+ boosts to all stats (which is unfortunately not unlikely based on trailer evidence), then many mons will have to go. First off, Mew, Mega Alakazam and Mega Slowbro will almost certainly get quickbanned; the former is far too versatile for the tier's own good, and the latter 2 can just shit on everything with Calm Mind sets. In addition, Chansey, Snorlax and possibly Clefable will have to be suspected or put on some kind of watchlist. Chansey is Chansey, Snorlax can run over everything with Curse, and Clefable is ultra versatile and forms an absurd stall core with Chansey.

Right now, I'm hoping that the 200+ boosts turns out to be a misconception. After so much advancement and innovation over many generations, it would be downright appalling to see competitive Pokemon revert back to the dark ages of RBY and GSC in a desperate casual shill it didn't have to make.
 

Theorymon

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weird as it sounds, I actually found Mega Gyarados to be much more threatening than Mega Slowbro just because Taunt + Dragon Dance + Rest seems really hard to stop with defensive Pokemon, and it has enough bulk where even something like Zapdos actually doesn't 2HKO it lol. To be fair though I just never Mega Slowbro set up vs the teams I was using.

Curious Yung Dramps since you were here earlier for this meta than I was this morning: What set is Mega Alakazam using? I'm just sorta struggling to figure out how it gets past Alolan Muk and Crunch Mega Gyarados (Not actually sure if either 2HKO it, but if anything can be 2HKOed without a boost, its probably Mega Alakazam lol)

Also can't help but a lot of what is the obvious "lol ban" depends on how the game handles egg moves, since we've clearly seen some Pokemon using them. We could get some extremely useful stuff if Gamefreak just dumps egg moves on us via learnsets, like Clear Smog Alolan Muk (which would REALLY suck for Mega Slowbro and Mega Alakazam lol).

I will agree with you that Mew would probably be the easy thing though, Mew's stallbreaker set is really hard to push past, and Im sure it can run offensive sets with Taunt too. I don't have enough experience with the offensive sets yet to say it should be a quickban though.

Also while I don't really mind which path this game takes mechnically, I don't think 200+ candy taking us back to the dark days of RBY / GSC is a total disaster, it would certainly make this format way more than just a modified kanto classic at least!
 
Curious Yung Dramps since you were here earlier for this meta than I was this morning: What set is Mega Alakazam using? I'm just sorta struggling to figure out how it gets past Alolan Muk and Crunch Mega Gyarados (Not actually sure if either 2HKO it, but if anything can be 2HKOed without a boost, its probably Mega Alakazam lol)
Calm Mind / Psychic / Recover / Taunt
Alternative for one move is Dazzling Gleam for Gyara, but other than that it relies on teammates to get rid of dark types.
 

Theorymon

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Regardless of how things go with the stat system, something on my mind is that I think if we look for a balance of sorts, we should look more towards RBY OU than say, USUM OU. And no not because of the gen 1 mons, but more because no matter what happens, we'll always be looking at a very limited pool of viable Pokemon.

So regardless of what happens, I think trying to make "a bunch of Pokemon viable" via bans may be a bit of a fools errand, might as well make it Lets Go UU at that point.
 

Theorymon

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Learnsets were just leaked!

https://pastebin.com/csJJyxDU

There's a TON of missing moves btw. For example, Belly Drum, Dragon Claw, Aromatherepy, Spikes, Toxic Spikes, Dragon Dance, and Focus Blast don't exist. So yeah looks like we got a lot more metagame development to do!

EDIT: Holy shit a lot of mons lost sig or important moves randomly too. For example, Slowbro doesn't get Slack Off, Mewtwo doesn't get Psystrike, etc. Yeah we're in a really awkward place now lol. So basically the only way to get rid of status as well is Rest. Makes it seem like Eevee is gonna be MUCH more effective than expected here because of that!

Also remember: The only game that can transfer things to Lets Go is Pokemon Go, so things like Wish Chansey aren't a thing!
 
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EDIT: Holy shit a lot of mons lost sig or important moves randomly too. For example, Slowbro doesn't get Slack Off, Mewtwo doesn't get Psystrike, etc. Yeah we're in a really awkward place now lol. So basically the only way to get rid of status as well is Rest. Makes it seem like Eevee is gonna be MUCH more effective than expected here because of that!
stuff that is too complex or redundant were removed
ex: Slack Off (Recover Clone), Curse (Bulk Up "clone")
Psyshock/Psystrike (Other defense), Rapid Spin/Defog (clears a buncha stuff that people wouldn't know)
Oddly DDance isn't a thing despite Shell Smash and Quiver Dance boosting speed + offensive stat. A nerf to dragons?

No hazard removal (or prevention, either) is going to be devistating
 
Thoughts: [Candy]
- Meta is mostly slow, but sweepers still exist like Dodrio which are more balanced than pre-moveset DD or ealry Calm Mind 'Zam. It isn't nearly as unbalanced as we thought.
- Mostly permanent Stealth Rocks feels odd, but it works to prevent stall from working nearly as well. I've been able to prevent Rocks by using Taunt Mew/Aerodactyl at least early in a match - opposing Aerodactyl takes big damage from Melmetal - speed ties determine if taunt gets up.
- TWave Melmetal is a beast for taking out much of the tier, but Toxic is also really useful. Double Iron specifically forces Eevee either out or to run Sizzly Slide.
- I've seen surprising little Pinsir use for incredibly strong Bulk Up/Swords Dance sets which beat Stallbreaker/Set Up Mew and scares off Veno with resists/Rock Slide.
- Sandslash-A is surprsingly good for SD/Rocks but hates taunt so much. Also wants more efficent coverage and hurt badly due to its weaknesses.
 

Theorymon

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Oh yeah I'll be massively updating this OP with the metagame relevant threats over the weekend! Aploogies, got sick AGAIN this week, so I gotta catch up on college work.

(Will also give the thread a title change, we've moved OUT of the land of speculation thats for sure lol)
 

Yung Dramps

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State of the Metagame Address
With the recent massive surge in interest for the Let's Go format (95 players on Nexus holy shit lmao), we have been able to collect a surplus of replays and opinions on the metagame. All kinds of developments have occurred during the past day alone, and while there is still some uncharted territory to be explored, we can begin to draw conclusions already.

The Champions
To start off with, let's take a look at the leading Pokemon of the metagame.

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Out of all the things players believed would come to dominate the metagame to a borderline unhealthy extent, I don't think anyone expected Eevee would fall into that category. But here we are anyway. Eevee is the definitive best Pokemon in Let's Go OU. This can be attributed to its whopping total of 9 new signature moves, 8 representing the Eeveelutions, and the 9th being Veevee Volley, a Return clone. Not only to these moves provide it with incredible coverage that almost everything else envies, but each of them come packed with bundles of utility, from Baddy Bad setting reflect, to Freezy Freeze Hazing away opponents' stat boosts. But out of these moves, the most dangerous by far are Sizzly Slide and Sappy Seed, the former being a 90 BP special Fire move with a 100% Burn rate, and the latter being a 90 BP physical Grass move which applies Leech Seed on the foe. Combined with Substitute and Eevee's serviceable boosted stats, these moves make Eevee able to whittle down and cripple many threats while keeping itself healthy. It can mix and match its moves to serve any role it wants from cleric to screens setter to status spreader, it's just so good; if any Pokemon is to get banned or restricted somehow, it'll be Eevee almost for sure.

image.jpg

If Eevee is the king of Let's Go OU, Mew is the prince. Mew does much the same as it has always done, more specifically messing up foes with it's extremely versatile stats and movepool. In Let's Go, Mew's iconic defensive set is semi-intact with Will-O-Wisp and Roost, and it can also opt to serve a role as a potent breaker with Nasty Plot or even Bulk Up. Mew has tons of sets, and all of them can mess you up if you're not careful.

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Venomoth is one of only 2 Quiver Dancers in the game along with Butterfree, and by far the most dangerous one. After just one or two rounds of set-up, it can clear through teams with Bug Buzz and coverage like Psychic and Sludge Bomb, all the while taking advantage of the high bulk granted to it via LG's candy mechanics via Roost. Oh, by the way, it gets Sleep Powder too, so even its checks aren't completely safe!

image.jpg

Muk-Alola, even by LG standards, is an amazing tank and blanket check. Its impeccable defensive typing means that you'll rarely be hitting it very hard at all, and it has a wide host of moves to attack with like Poison Jab and Crunch, or to annoy and support its team with like Haze, Taunt and the ubiquitous Rest, which it can put to especially good use.


And finally, at the lowest end of my personal Top 5 is the Let's Go games' only new fully-evolved Pokemon, Melmetal. Much like Muk-Alola, it serves as a tank that takes advantage of its amazing defensive typing and bulk to sponge up hits effectively. Unlike Muk-Alola however, it hits much harder, sporting EdgeQuake coverage and its signature move, Double Iron Bash, along with a gigantic 143 Attack. The flinch chance on this attack may seem redundant in conjunction with its low speed, but this is patched up with its access to Thunder Wave, which allows it to take advantage of a deadly ParaFlinch combo in the vein of Jirachi.

Rising Stars
These Pokemon, while not the best of the best, have been growing in popularity and usage.

image.jpg

Exeggutor is back, and it has some cool new toys. Not only is its typing once again helpful in a meta with few Bugs and Ghosts and plenty of Psychic, Grass, Rock and Electric type mons and moves, but it also has the incredibly annoying combo of Sleep Powder and Teleport, which, for the unaware, is now a -6 non-damaging move that switches out the user. Even the mighty Venomoth has to fear switching in due to Psychic.

image.jpg

Golbat is an interesting defensive threat. While it has lost Defog access, it retains Roost, can phase with Whirlwind, and is one of the few Pokemon who can fit U-turn onto their moveset. What it lacks in power is made up for in bulk and utility.

1542234299929.png

In a meta where Eevee and Melmetal lurk at every corner, Machamp finds a niche with its Bulk Up Rest set, which can easily dismantle these key threats and more with Brick Break and coverage such as Rock Slide.

The Unexplored
These are Pokemon I have used that I think have frightening potential, but just don't get the usage to back my claims for some reason.

image.jpg
(Mega)
Most people look at Mega Pinsir's lack of Flying STAB and 4x Rock weakness and automatically discard it as bad. That couldn't be further from the truth. As a matter of fact, Mega Pinsir is one of the most deadly and severely underprepared for sweepers and wincons in the entire meta. The rocks weakness isn't a terrible problem considering Pinsir's high bulk and only 2x weakness pre-mega, still allowing it to set up with a Sub Bulk Up Set before Resting all the damage off and striking back with X-Scissor. You don't even need to run Ground coverage; Melmetal lacking Rest straight up loses to Sub Bulk Up by virtue of Pinsir's impenetrable physical bulk after set-up. Even the mighty Eevee is destined for failure if Pinsir gets up a Substitute in time. And it can do this quite handily by virtue of its great 105 speed tier, something Machamp cannot claim to have.

1542234526405.png

LGPE doesn't have many Swords Dance breakers, the most notable of which is Dodrio. However, one that many overlook is Kabutops. Unlike Dodrio, it has access to priority and Superpower to easily one-shot Eevee at +2, as well as higher defense, and unlike Rhydon it has strong water coverage, Swords Dance and a very potent speed tier.

1542234872899.png

Picture Golbat with higher bulk but a worse typing and actual offensive presence, and you've got a good summary of how Articuno functions. The 4x rocks weakness may seem like a downer, but Articuno's so bulky it barely matters, you'll almost always take a hit even after Rocks and be able to Roost it off.

Before we go...
I want to deliver a message to everyone: This message is a good part of the reason I made this post at all. I know this meta looks extremely backwards and stupid; you are not wrong to think that. This meta is indeed way slower and has more jank strats than the main USM meta. But don't be intimidated by the insanely high average bulk of the format and the grand total of 1 viable Pokemon that isn't part of the original 151. Because when you look past that, what you'll find is an experience unlike anything else, and I mean that in a good way, honest to god. Lemme put it this way: The people who are complaining the most about LGPE have barely played a single game. I committed that same fallacy too, but I gave it more of a chance, and now I'm having lots of fun with it. The actual games will probably still suck, but the competitive metagame, as surprising as it may seem, ain't that bad.
 
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Eve

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Thanks to the efforts of some unnamed individual processing the data for every battle on Nexus, we have early usage stats! This might be the first time usage stats have been known before a game's release, which is pretty cool.
Here's the data on a very pretty website: https://pikalytics.com/pokedex/lgpe
With this data, I've been able to create a Alpha UU tier! Anything from Mega Beedrill and above is OU.
Interesting things about this usage:
-Golem has enough usage for OU when it is almost fully outclassed by Rhydon due to Explosion being a terrible move to click.
-Electrode is OU when its niche as a fast Taunt user is almost always fulfilled better by metagame staples such as Mega Alakazam and Aerodactyl and its damage output is very lacking.
-Snorlax is OU despite having little to nothing that makes it worth using over (also bad) mons like Mega Kang; I suspect this one could be our "noob trap" for a while.
-Chansey seems to be using Seismic Toss a silly amount considering how bad the move is thanks to AVs.

Also another thing: as the lets go meta isn't really a Pet Mod or speculation anymore, this or a new thread could possibly fit better in the Other Metagames subforum.
 

Eve

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Double-posting to notify people of something that's been found out with the release of the game.
There are two battle modes that appear in most games: Normal and Unrestricted. However, there's a key difference between the two other than just level and legends this time, that being that Normal doesn't have Awakened Values (aka Candy). This means that both candyless and candy are official, which could pose issues for tiering in Smogon. However, it also means more ways to play! Which will you play more?
Also both are implemented on Nexus.
 
Candy format is better imo, because there's more balance between strong and weak Pokémon so there are more viable ones.
 
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