This. Yes, sometimes you'll find that you would have prefered the speed. But sometimes, you'll also wish you had swords dance if you can't set up 2 DDs due to its poor bulk (it generally needs +2 to ohko safely) and your opponent's Mons are slow.
-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
-
Congrats to the winners of the 2023 Smog Awards!
Format Discussion Pokemon Sun/Moon Random Battle sets
- Thread starter duck
- Start date
- Status
got something similar again
Attachments
Crap i meant magnet pull. But my question was answered just now when I got a non-earth power magnet pull set. It really is just the worst.
need details on the set though
Apologies I forgot to screenshot, but the set was Volt Switch, Flash Cannon, Toxic, Thunder wave.
This set just does not function with magnet pull in place. Toxic is ineffectual against steel types in the first place. Then you have the issue of flash cannon not working against any steel type that doesn't share a rock or ice type. Most of these pokemon take 10-20% on a flash cannon and hit back much harder. Volt switch is a fine move if you can either outspeed or live a hit, but on pokemon that might have a ground or fighting move, you'd be taking a gamble. Thunder wave is an okay move if you can get it off, but the problem is threefold: 1) Only 24% of steel types are actually outsped by probopass. 2) Pokemon that are outsped by probopass really aren't fantastic recipients of paralysis. 3) Of the steel pokemon that probopass doesnt outspeed, 57% of these pokemon have a better than even chance of carrying a dangerous move in the first place.
The issue here is not that magnet pull isn't useful. In some games it absolutely can be a crucial element to your strategy because the opponent is forced to play their steel type around yours. The issue I see is that it's far far more likely that you'd rather just have Sturdy.
Consider this rough math. I've averaged all the percentages from my spreadsheet to be that a given steel type has a 45% chance of carrying a super effective move. The opponent gets 6 pokemon from a pool of 904 different pokemon and forms with an equal chance of getting any of the 43 steel types. The odds of the opponent having a single steel type are about [(904-43)^6/(903!/898!)] or just around 75%. There are only 21 steel types probopass reliably 2HKOs, and of those only 4 have a chance of being OHKOed. That's about 50% of steels that probo deals with.
These numbers broken down:
In 25% of battles, magnet pull is worthless as the opponent has no steel types
In 33.75% of battles, magnet pull will trap a steel, but the steel has a move that seriously threatens probopass
In 20.625% of battles, magnet pull will trap a steel that does not have a threatening move, but probopass will also not secure the 2HKO
In 20.625% of battles, probopass safely traps and dispatches a steel type.
All of these statistics were made even before factoring in whether or not probopass has the appropriate damaging move in the first place. If I estimate and assume the best move is always earth power (or volt switch; they have the same chance of being drawn), that last figure then becomes 33% lower at a staggeringly low 13% chance for magnet pull to succeed.
Now YES, this is a gross oversimplification of matters, but I wanted to show just how many things have to go right for probopass to actually have this ability work in its favor. Obviously you'd be well within your power to keep probo in against a pokemon that threatens, and obviously air balloon does complicate things in probopass's favor. But still, when compared to the universal utility in Sturdy, I can't say that probopass deserves to be running what it currently is. I encourage you to check my math and let me know if I've committed any errors or made too big of a logical leap anywhere, but as it stands right now, I dont think probopass should stay as he is when his ability doesn't work 90% of the time.
please make recover mandatory for gastro(and quag if it isn't already)
From what I gather your calculation is actually backwards; the chance of zero Steels is around 75% by your calculations!
However, there are also some things to consider, most notably the fact that with a few exceptions, all NFE Pokemon are excluded from Random Battle. Also, most non-Alolan forme differences are adjusted in such a way that you have about the same chance to obtain any one species regardless of forme. For example, the chance for any one Arceus forme to generate is 1/18 of the normal chance, so the chance of obtaining Arceus is the same as obtaining a Smeargle. (Some aren't managed this way, but I think those are oversights rather than intentional and I'll get to fixing them later.) This narrows down the list of potential Pokemon to 477 (including the formes that are not managed yet, give or take), 38 of which are Steel, which gives about a 40% chance of your opponent having at least 1 Steel Pokemon. (It's actually 39.4%, but who cares, the rate will go up slightly once I fix the odds for the various formes.)
At any rate, I am not convinced that these chances are truly bad enough to ditch Magnet Pull. However, I do believe that the best course of action regarding your Probopass reports is to make it so that non-EP Probopasses have Sturdy. I'd like to see what you did to determine which Pokemon have moves that "seriously threaten" Probopass, though.
This is why I don't do math late at night. You're absolutely correct in your calculations. I thank you for listening to my feedback and appreciate our communication. After discussing with another user, I do realize that sturdy has a number of flaws too, and I think your proposed solution regarding earth power is the best course of action.
And the moves that "seriously threaten" are really just moves that hit it for super effective damage. I summed up the percentages of all mons and averaged them out.
This is so sad, Alexa play Despacito
On the bright side, at least Shed Skin Rest lets you refresh your Sash if you need to, or heal you up after breaking the sash, so it's not all gloom and doom?
So I've noticed that Girafarig has a decent base Attack stat of 80, as compared to its base Special Attack stat of 90. It could really use something to hit Steel types, and it does learn Earthquake. Also, its ability is always Sap Sipper, which could give it an Attack boost.
85 Atk Life Orb Girafarig Earthquake vs. 85 HP / 85 Def Dialga: 138-164 (48.5 - 57.7%) -- 50.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
85 Atk Life Orb Girafarig Earthquake vs. 85 HP / 85 Def Tyranitar: 146-172 (50.1 - 59.1%) -- 72.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+1 85 Atk Life Orb Girafarig Earthquake vs. 85 HP / 85 Def Ferrothorn: 94-110 (37.6 - 44%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
Edit: I'd say the same goes for Necrozma:
85 Atk Expert Belt Necrozma Earthquake vs. 85 HP / 85 Def Dialga: 142-168 (50 - 59.1%) -- 73.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Edit2: So I went through all the Pokemon that have decent or better mixed stats and found a few possible mixed sets that could work in randbats:
85 Atk Life Orb Girafarig Earthquake vs. 85 HP / 85 Def Dialga: 138-164 (48.5 - 57.7%) -- 50.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
85 Atk Life Orb Girafarig Earthquake vs. 85 HP / 85 Def Tyranitar: 146-172 (50.1 - 59.1%) -- 72.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+1 85 Atk Life Orb Girafarig Earthquake vs. 85 HP / 85 Def Ferrothorn: 94-110 (37.6 - 44%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
Edit: I'd say the same goes for Necrozma:
85 Atk Expert Belt Necrozma Earthquake vs. 85 HP / 85 Def Dialga: 142-168 (50 - 59.1%) -- 73.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Edit2: So I went through all the Pokemon that have decent or better mixed stats and found a few possible mixed sets that could work in randbats:
- Heat Wave Archeops (Maybe not good with Earthquake on the same set, but does loads to things like Mega Aggron and Mega Steelix)
- Ice Shard Articuno (85 Atk vs. 95 SpA is not much of a drop)
- Sludge Bomb Carnivine (this thing really does need coverage...)
- Stomping Tantrum Exeggutor (does exactly the same amount of damage to Registeel as HP Fire; could be a nice alternative as long as they're guaranteed to not be on the same set)
- Knock Off Mesprit (not so much a mixed set as it is support, but Mesprit does have as much Attack as it does Special Attack)
- Extreme Speed Raichu & Pikachu (without actual validation, Pikachu can have both Volt Tackle and Extreme Speed, and for Raichu, Extreme Speed is fairly strong priority to secure some otherwise impossible revenge KOes)
- Gunk Shot Simipour, Simisage, and Simisear (While they'd probably prefer Ice Beam or HP Ice with Nasty Plot, Gunk Shot is very good for hitting the Grass types that resist Simipour and Simisage's STAB attacks, and lets Simisear be a better counter to Fairy types and revenge KO a weakened GeoXern)
- Earthquake Empoleon (Earthquake only does slightly more to Registeel than Hydro Pump does, so it's maybe not worth it)
- Gunk Shot Hoopa (85 Atk Expert Belt Hoopa Gunk Shot vs. 85 HP / 85 Def Xerneas: 216-257 (66.4 - 79%) -- guaranteed 2HKO ...eh)
- Focus Blast Toxicroak (poor accuracy, but does significantly more to Registeel than an unboosted Drain Punch does. Maybe good with Fightinium Z?)
- Drain Punch Vileplume (once again, this does exactly the same amount of damage to Registeel as HP Fire, so it seems like a possible upgrade thanks to the HP draining effect, but it should definitely not be on the same set as HP Fire)
Last edited:
Interesting. I’ll check it out but I think it is rejecting Softboiled trying to get Seismic Toss.
ban the monkey
I've like Moxie in plenty of games honestly - a +2 Attack +1 Speed Mega Gyarados hits a good bit harder than a +1/+1 and regular Gyarados is definitely strong enough to manage KOs.
1 was already answered and 2 random battle doesn’t work like that. People didn’t even agree when I brought up Wigglytuff always getting Wish. Every mon that has a recovery move always getting it is not something that should exist. No we can’t specifically pick which Pokémon get recovery moves unless there’s a specific criteria (like in the above example it was high HP which only affects wiggly, alomo and bliss/chans).
I realize that recovery moves aren't always good, but in this specific case, I don't know any 6v6 singles formats where Hippowdon is viable without slack off.
Togetic unfortunately only gets Hustle in gen 3, and Seismic Toss is basically its only worthwhile actual attack besides Flamethrower, so it can't really be helped
It gets Serene Grace.
Ah, you're right. I remembered there were a few mons with only 1 ability in gen 3 (Scizor, Breloom, Clefable, etc.) so I sort of assumed that all of them did
- Status