Smogon Snake Draft III - Week 6

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Tournament Rules and General Guidelines



Matchups:


Ambrette Astrotias (2) vs (8) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: Updated Kanto vs Charmflash
OU: Cdumas vs Welli0u
OU: ZoroDark vs Tace
OU: Tamahome vs Insult
DOU: Mint16 vs emforbes
UU: Lycans vs Corazan
RU: Feliburn vs roman
NU: Jrdn vs Garay oak
PU: false vs Xiri
LC: Shrug vs Luthier


Sky Tower Lindworms (6) vs (4) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Sorry vs dice
OU: xImRaptor vs FMG
OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Jytcampbell
OU: Relous vs Eo Ut Mortus
DOU: Stratos vs qsns
UU: HT vs Accelgor
RU: Ajna vs UltraBallz
NU: col49 vs Finchinator
PU: tom holland vs Raiza
LC: trash vs Kingler12345


Shinto Ruin Serpents (4) vs (6) Lanakila Nagas

OU: Jardem vs ramboss
OU: BKC vs Kebab mlml
OU: Star vs Tricking
OU: Sacri' vs Jimmy Turtwig
DOU: Demantoid vs Nails
UU: Corckscrew vs Adaam
RU: Nat vs Kink
NU: 0NI vs Plas
PU: soulgazer vs Ktütverde
LC: BurntZebra vs Osh


Rumble Hall Rattlers (7) vs (3) Black City Mambas

OU: teal6 vs Empo
OU: frisoeva vs xray
OU: TPP vs PDC
OU: TonyFlygon vs Eeveeto
DOU: Spurrific vs Human
UU: SoulWind vs Christo
RU: TDK vs Averardo
NU: Kushalos vs ict
PU: rozes vs Sam I Yam
LC: London13 vs LilyAC


Berry Forest Bushmasters (2) vs (8) Terminus Taipans

OU: z0mOG vs le LLiolae
OU: xtra$hine vs ima
OU: Vore Gidal vs Mana
OU: @hsa vs Chaitanya
DOU: SMB vs Ezrael
UU: yeezyknows vs robjr
RU: SPACE FORCE meeps vs Alpha Rabbit
NU: Eternally vs Sjneider
PU: Taskr vs Teddeh
LC: tazz vs jake


Deadline will be October 6th, 10:00 PM EST.
 
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HELLO AND WELCOME BACK TO THE UNBIASED PREDICTIONS OML YAHALLO NYANPASU BOP
Next week, we can hopefully start writing the eulogies, so look forward to those.

Ambrette Astrotias (6) vs (3) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: Updated Kanto vs Charmflash | Charm farmed a win last week against the worst player in snake. Kanto seems to have found his SPL 9 form, and back then, I thought he was a god. So going with him here. Small edge.
OU: Cdumas vs Welli0u | SHEET GOD CDUMAS OML nothing I love more than bolding people who always win on the sheet. Cdumas's win rate is ridiculous and I'm not too high on Welli0u in OU so.
OU: ZoroDark vs Tace | Tace is probably like decent but I think ZoroClick is above average and probably slightly better. He usually gets his wins so.
OU: Tamahome vs Insult | Insult suffered his first defeat of the tournament last week and it doesn't get any easier from here. Tamahome is worse at SM OU than he is at old gens, but I still like him as a battler. Decent edge.
DOU: Mint16 vs emforbes
UU: Lycans vs Corazan | Lycans got a bit lucky last week but the sheet doesn't lie people. He's done crazy things the past few tournaments and I like his odds of stomping this week. Corazan has been ridiculously lucky and finally got the axe last week from black magic master HT. I don't really think he's good from what I've seen. Big edge.
RU: Feliburn vs roman | Bolding Feliburn never feels good people LOOOL Oh my god his performance on the sheet makes my head hurt. roman is never drafted to play in these tournaments, though, and he was literally picked up to be a sub in one of the weakest playerbases of all time. That has to mean something LOL He did just beat Ajna by some miracle but hey...Minimal edge in the coinflip.
NU: Jrdn vs Garay oak | Jrdn keeps winning somehow so perhaps he has some playing ability. Against a lesser player, I'd favor him. But Garay was ranked #2 for a reason. He's had a pretty rough season but I still think he's probably above average. Small edge.
PU: false vs Xiri | I'm definitely not bolding false so LOL Not really confident in Xiri, but hey, he's had a decent tour.
LC: Shrug vs Luthier | Shrug LOL This guy hasn't been relevant since star ghosted him on the Pitvipers in Snake 1 LOL WHAT IS THIS? Luthier's been decent and theres a reason Shrug wasn't drafted as a starter lol. Decent edge.

The Lindworms badly need this win or their season is probably over. Can they pull it off, or will there be a eulogy next week?

Sky Tower Lindworms (2) vs (7) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Sorry vs dice | After 5 of the most disastrous performances you will ever witness, Indigo Plateau is FINALLY ON THE BENCH LOOOL JESUS IT TOOK THIS LONG? OJAMA TOLD THIS MAN LIKE 90 TIMES HE WASN'T GONNA PLAY AGAIN oh my god. He definitely should not be drafted to start again dude this man was AWFUL LOOOL To replace him with the season on the line, the Lindworms turn to imsosorrylol, a man who has won the past 2 team tournaments on Smogon. Unfortunately, he was merely a passenger for those tournament victories, putting forth some disastrous performances including the absolute debacle that was his game in the SPL 10 finals. His main accomplishment on Smogon is hoodwinking BKC into thinking he was a Round 7 talent, when in reality, he was nothing more than another george182. dice has been solid enough and is a way better player. Big edge.
OU: xImRaptor vs FMG | Raptor has been the saving grace for the heavily scrutinized trio of draft reaches by the Lindworms. He has managed to put together a respectable 3-2 campaign. There has to be a reason why most managers had Raptor pegged as a Round 14 draft value, though. I think FMG is a bit more proven and is definitely more skilled. Decent edge.
OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Jytcampbell | Spreadsheet warrior Lopunny Kicks has had another solid tournament so far. I've never been a believer in Jyt and don't really think he's competent. Big edge.
OU: Relous vs Eo Ut Mortus | Relous has surprised with a solid 4-1 record, although he choked on balls in his last game LOL Still, though, I think he's decent. Eo's been one of the best players in the tour, though, and I think he's much more skilled than Relous from what I've seen. Decent edge.
DOU: Stratos vs qsns
UU: HT vs Accelgor | bro LOOL DID HT SACRIFICE SOME ANIMALS OR SOMETHING HOW'S HE 4-1 HE'S GARBAGE LOOL WHAT To be fair, he's beaten a gauntlet of absolute clown players, such as Dickscrew, Amane Misa, Shrug (in PU LOL), and Corazan. Nah bros. Regression is going to hit eventually. I'm not a big believer in Accel but he's surpassed expectations as well against some slightly better competition. Small edge.
RU: Ajna vs UltraBallz | Ajna has struggled a bit and enters Week 6 with only a 3-2 record. Still, though, he was the consensus #1 RUer for a reason. UB is solid, but this is Ajna's tier and there's no way he's gonna be .500
NU: col49 vs Finchinator | 49 has looked pretty shaky in his games so far. I think I've picked Finch every week and I'm gonna keep it rolling here. He's fallen back to earth after a dream start, but I think he's slightly better as player. lax and 49 could definitely come up with some techs to take this, but I'll trust the tryhard for another week. Small edge.
PU: tom holland vs Raiza | Unfortunately, the Lindworms lack the manpower to replace all of the unviable players in their lineup. On any normal team, tom holland would be joining Indigo Plateau in the trash heap, but due to a lack of players, he will be trot out to the field of battle yet again. He's looked absolutely terrible and there's zero evidence that he should ever start in a team tournament again. Raiza has 3 wins, so clearly he's done something right. Solid edge.
LC: trash vs Kingler12345 | trash is another player that has looked heavily overmatched in his games. The Lindworms' LC is a collective 0-5, and there's a real shot that they are unable to cash in at any point of the season. Kingler started out horribly, but he's a historically mediocre player on the sheet, and I imagine he'll end up with 3 or 4 wins when all is said and done. That's not very convincing, but it's more than I can say about trash.

Shinto Ruin Serpents (6) vs (2) Lanakila Nagas

OU: Jardem vs ramboss | Ah, our first cross out LOOOL Bumass clowns. Nothing needs to be said here. Let's move on.
OU: BKC vs Kebab mlml | This is one of the least convincing bolds of the tournament LOL which is insane because it's the fucking GOAT BKC has looked absolutely awful, though, and even his win last week was pretty unconvincing. There were like 9 points in the Jerk where we thought he had the game locked up only to somehow throw it LOL oh my god Still, though, there's no reason to think this kebab goon is a viable player, so.
OU: Star vs Tricking | Feels pretty bad going against Clicking and the sheet, here, but I'll trust it. I assume most people would see Star as an underdog here, but I like his chances. Clicking manages to always win somehow, but Star's had some nice games, and should have taken down ABR last week if not for an unfortunate burn. Minimal edge.
OU: Sacri' vs Jimmy Turtwig | Jimmy has bagged some wins, but I still don't fully trust him in SM OU against a solid player. Decent edge.
DOU: Demantoid vs Nails
UU: Corckscrew vs Adaam | LOOOL NOOO MY BOY DURZA NOOO LOLO DICKSCREW IS IN AGAIN WHAT A DISASTER BROS Oh my god, this man looked like a complete clown in his first two games LOL Adaam has been solid enough and should run this dude off the map. Big edge.
RU: Nat vs Kink | Kink has managed to put together a decent season, to my surprise. This is Nat, though, people LOL The Big 2 are definitely going to the end with the best records.
NU: 0NI vs Plas | This game was gonna be a cross out but I was made aware of the following:

Turn 13
Passimian used Close Combat!
It's super effective!
(The opposing Scrafty lost 100% of its health!)
Passimian's Defense fell!
Passimian's Special Defense fell!
The opposing Scrafty fainted!
(Future Sight did not hit because the target is the user.)
☆plasmagby: oh
☆plasmagby: oops LOL
☆basicb1tchteargas: oopsiefloopsie
☆plasmagby: was too lazy to calc it

This guy's unviable for sure LOOOL ARE YOU SERIOUS WHO SAYS THAT WHAT KIND OF CLOWN ARE YOU BRO????
PU: soulgazer vs Ktütverde | SG was on the verge fo being 5-0, but unfortunately, he had to go against ABR's team. Not too convinced by Ktut, and lower tier God SG seems to be unparalleled in this meme tier. Big edge.
LC: BurntZebra vs Osh | Zebra has struggled a bit and Osh is more proven in general. Small edge.

Like the Lindworms, the Rumblers are on the verge of elimination. Can they pull it off, or is it eulogy time in Week 7?

Rumble Hall Rattlers (3) vs (6) Black City Mambas

OU: teal6 vs Empo | teal's been solid, and I think Empo's a bit overrated, but he's still way more proven than teal. There was a reason he went in the 1st round, lol.
OU: frisoeva vs xray | I've picked against xray every week, and he's gotten some wins. This week, he goes against some clown random. You know the drill. Decent edge to the more proven player.
OU: TPP vs PDC | Crust ass PDC miraculously won a game last week LOOOL He's still crust, but I have no reason too think TPP isn't garbage so. Small edge.
OU: TonyFlygon vs Eeveeto | Tony's been solid enough and I think he's a bit better of a player.
DOU: Spurrific vs Human
UU: SoulWind vs Christo | SoulWind has been ridiculously unlucky this tour LOL He should literally be 3-0 in UU. Against almost anyone else at this point, I'd pick him....but this is GOD CHRISTO OML THE UU GOAT He's for sure getting 6 or 7 wins people. Book it.
RU: TDK vs Averardo | Averardo has surprised with some wins while TDK has struggled for yet another tournament. Still not convinced Averardo isn't bad, though, so gonna trust the more proven player, even if he's in a massive slump.
NU: Kushalos vs ict | Kushalos has been decent, but ict has been on a roll against some stiff competition. This one could go either way, but I'll give a slight edge to the more in-form player.
PU: rozes vs Sam I Yam | The Rumblers are apparently getting closer to solving PU. GJ people LOL Sam I Yam is probably trash so. Decent edge to shiloh.
LC: London13 vs LilyAC | Not too sure about this one but. Wannabe London Beats hasn't really looked good and Lily has gotten some wins. Gonna favor the person who was drafted as a starter. Minimal edge.

Berry Forest Bushmasters (3) vs (5) Terminus Taipans

OU: z0mOG vs le LLiolae | LLL is miraculously 2-0, but I need to see more. z0m's more proven and should bounce back here. Solid edge.
OU: xtra$hine vs ima | Yeah... I don't have a read here LOL no comment too much variance
OU: Vore Gidal vs Mana | An Oceanian SM player got a win last week...no way it happens again LOL come on bros it's 2019. Mana's solid enough for sure.
OU: blarghlfarghl vs ABR | blargh is seemingly falling back to earth. Luckily, the decision of whether to bold him or not is very easy this week. I've probably bolded ABR in like almost every matchup he's played ever LOL so there it is.
DOU: SMB vs Ezrael
UU: yeezyknows vs robjr | rob got on the board last week after an uncharacteristic terrible performance through the first four weeks. yeezy's surprised some people and may have potential for the future. Still, though, he's very unproven. rob was expected to do great things in this tour with Pearl's help, and I think this is a good spot for him to continue his return to form.
RU: SPACE FORCE meeps vs Alpha Rabbit | meeps is more proven and oth have done pretty similar things this tour. I expect meeps to end up with around 4 wins so.
NU: Eternally vs Sjneider | As you know, I'm not the biggest Eternally believer but he's still shown a lot more than Sjneider. Both have had decent tours, but I think regression is due for the 14th rounder at some point.
PU: Taskr vs Teddeh | The BKC of PU has had a middling performance so far. Teddeh had some bad luck before ABR hacked the game last week to help him out. Teddeh's the second best PUer in the tournament, and consistently puts forth solid performances in SPL. Solid edge.
LC: tazz vs jake | tazz was the most hyped LCer coming in the tournament, and he's had some mixed showings. Zeb is a veteran that wasn't expected to do too well, but he's really come alive this tournament. Going to trust the more proven talent over someone who struggled to get drafted for the big stage after years of effort.
 

Leni

formerly tlenit
is a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Top Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Past SCL Champion
RUPL Champion
Coach Carters unbiased PU predictions for the w6, lets see how we can break this down;

False vs. Xiri
Xiri is only 20% skill, the rest is luck


Tom H0lland 15 vs. 85 Raiza
The clearest game on paper for this week. Raiza been solid week after week and Lindworms overall struggling a lot on their PU slot. Tom still does have some tricks on his sleeves and maybe it's time to go for some absolutely random and odd stuff to get Raiza's super solid teams off guard? Who knows, but stats speaks here quite a lot. Raiza going for 4-2 stats and keeping himself on positive

Soulgazer 55 vs. 45 Ktutverde
Highlight match of week and giving the edge for SG. Even after last week L vs. Teddeh, SG's run has been couple steps ahead what comes to Ktuts games so far. Ktutverde closes the playing gap with his unpredictable teams, but do we know yet who's team SG gonna copy this week? Maybe a better one than last week? Anyway, I think SG has showed better in game plays and following the required strat better than Ktut has

Rozes 40 vs. 60 Sam I Yam
This feels a bit weird one to predict as both players played a bit weird game last week, but managed to win their own games. With more PU experience, I think Sam should win this most of the times. Rozes showcased nicely how to run Waterium Swanna effectively enough. Maybe they can come across with something similar and effective with Specs Jigglypuff also this week? Looking forward to see what they can put together as Specs J definitely knows Sam's builds

Taskr 45 vs. 55 Teddeh
Oh man, battle of brits and quite a good one too. Both have had some haxxxxxy games during their runs and the stats arent directly showing how solid they have been. Both are capable of bringing effective 'unsets' and I can see that playing a big role in this MU. Anyway, Teddeh has been on drivers seat most of the time after midgame and I'm counting to be this time as well. Super close game and not too far away to be highlight match of the week
 

Mavis

Banned deucer.
time for the super well informed BKDREW'S RU PREDICTIONS

Feliburn (Astrotias, 2-3) vs Roman (Leviathans, 1-0): uh.. fuck, definitely my match of the week, incredibly excited to see what pans out in this game. sure to be a thriller no matter what. feliburn is technically the favored on paper, but roman's debut upset gives him serious contention. he's proven his ability to research his opponents thoroughly, giving him the upper hand vs ajna, so will he be able to do it again?

Ajna (Lindworms, 3-2) vs UltraBallz (Cobras, 2-3): a relatively easy bold for me, but I like watching both players and look forward to seeing what they bring out. ub has had some incredible play, bringing the heat vs nat w4, but ajna's near untouchable when he takes over the pilot's seat and directs the game his way as he's so often great at. another thriller too

Nat (Serpents, 3-2) vs Kink (Nagas, 3-2): Bolding Nat again, you don't really expect her to slip up the same as last week, and while kink is certainly respectable, I don't see him winning this. Nat will have a solid bounceback showing this week

TDK (Rattlers, 1-2) vs Averardo (Mambas, 3-2): rising star vs slumping legend is a storyline we've seen play out since the dawn of time, and I see no reason for Averardo's momentum to stop here. TDK really looks like he just doesn't want to be playing RU and would rather be some place else. this is mons and I don't like pulling the "his heart isn't in it" bullshit but, yeah it looks to be true, and the pizza is one of the biggest grinders of the tier and he's shown it

SPACE FORCE meeps (Taipans, 2-3) vs Alpha Rabbit (Bushmasters, 2-3) : bolding AR on pure account of his momentum swing courtesy of upsetting Nat last week, neither player impresses me too much but go off ig.

edits to flesh out my decision making a tad
 
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sugar ovens

blood inside
is a Top Tiering Contributor
Predictions by that unperson who can't write a single English sentence right are here again!

false (45) vs Xiri (55)
Week five, false improved his record to 2:2 with a good win over Serene Grace, whereas Xiri played a very awkward game versus tom holland, which he would have lost if not for tom's crucial misplays. False hasn't shown much outside of that single match, though (the another win was over GaryTheGengar), so small edge to Xiri.

tom h0lland (15) vs Raiza (85)
Raiza is consistent. Without crazy plays or stunning innovative sets, he has done well in every match and if he keeps his high standard, Raiza shouldn't have any problems versus tom, who played poorly in all his games and will probably end with a disastrous record. I also doubt that cheese would help him much vs Raiza.

soulgazer (75) vs Ktütverde (25)
One hax loss doesn't make soulgazer any less dominant, and he is definitely expected to win versus Ktut, who is a bit of a wildcard. The result depends entirely on Ktütverde, he probably can't outplay SG, but he has more than enough experience at winning at team preview. Unfortunately, he hasn't shown much of that during this snake.

rozes (45) vs Sam I Yam (55)
Rozes' lack of PU experience might not be a huge detriment here, but it is still must be considered. Sam is also underrated as a player, this should be a pretty even matchup.

Taskr (55) vs Teddeh (45)
Highlight match. Both players have worse records than they should have due to luck, but they are probably in the top three players of the pool, so it's quite even. Teddeh has been impressive, but i still think that Taskr has shown a bit more.. also as I'm looking forward to this game, it will inevitably end up as haxy mess, and now it's Taskr's turn.
 

xray

how u doin'?
is a Tiering Contributoris a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Past SPL Champion
World Defender
Updated Kanto vs Charmflash - I think Charmflash is without a doubt one of the best SM OU players at the moment. Kanto has been impressive so far too, but quite lucky as well.
Cdumas vs Welli0u - Should be a close one. I think Cdumas is the slightly better SM OU player but my feeling tells me to go with the well.
ZoroDark vs Tace - To me ZoroDark seems more consistent than Tace, that's simply why I am predicting him to win here. On a good day Tace can easily take this though.
Tamahome vs Insult - I am high on Insult but he still overperformed a little till now. I think Tama is gonna take this.


imsosorrylol vs dice - dice is a great player, I'm a fan :mehowth:
xImRaptor vs FMG - Raptor seems decent but I still don't know what to think about him. He can probably beat anyone or lose to anyone. Going with the more experienced and consistent player in FMG here.
Lopunny Kicks vs Jytcampbell - I have been a fan of the kickin lop for a while now and I don't think Jyt is that great in SM :s
Relous vs Eo Ut Mortus - tough choice. I like both, but I am definitely rooting for my boy Relous here. However I do think Eo is a beast and the slightly better SM player. Can't predict against my man Relous though..


Jardem vs ramboss - both seem pretty solid but a little hit or miss, what can I say.
BKC vs Kebab mlml - Kev broke the curse last game, he should be fine from now on.
Star vs Tricking - Tricking seems to just win everything atm and I still don't know that much about Star to be convinced I should pick him vs one of the best SM OUers. Could go the other way around too though.
Sacri' vs Jimmy Turtwig - Jimmy seems very solid too but Sacri' has more experience.


z0mOG vs Le LLiolae - z0m has been unlucky so far. LLL is competent but I predict z0m to win.
xtra$hine vs ima - no idea, probably depends on the matchup.
Vore Gidal vs Mana - Mana's a good player and idk much about his opponent.
blarghlfarghl vs ABR - high on both and played vs both. I think ABR is more consistent though.


GL HF RATTLERS
 
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