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Announcement np: SS OU Suspect Process, Round 4 - Fish Out of Water
- Thread starter suapah
- Start date
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whitnerd
Banned deucer.
Reading solely that line may seemed like flawed logic. However, you do mention that what I'm trying to say is that we should preserve a "broken checks broken" metagame. In no way am I implying that, and the fact that you are assuming that creates a huge blemish in what you are saying against me. I already voiced my opinion on Dracovish: it is not broken. I have listed reasons. I may have implied that I feel like Clefable is broken, but in no way was that explicitly stated. So please, I really would appreciate it if you would take a look at the bigger picture when drawing conclusions.
This is the most backpedaled response I have ever read in my life and I have been doing this for years.
Regardless, I am fine with you saying Dracovish is not broken and explaining why, but that should be all your post was. The paragraph I quoted implied that you wanted to keep Dracovish in order for something else in the metagame to have another answer, which implies that you believe it needs more answers and is problematic. This is a classic and commonly used suspect posting fallacy and this will not be the first, nor last, time I point it out in a thread of this nature. Your post was fine beyond this portion, but it is best to avoid this logic overall.
Oh boy. Dracovish. Where do i begin? Well that is the thing.
Even back when both galarian darmanitan and dynamax were around it was still a menace. First off lets go over its switch ins and checks shall we?
Scarf dracovish is slower than both Dragapult and Zeraora because of its speed being 75 and with a jolly nature combined with choice scarf is a total of 405. Meaning that they won't do much damage right? Right. However when it comes down to it scarf is basically useless now thanks to another stradgedy for dracovish. Webs choice band. see choice band dracovish is really slow and needs support from mons like clef, hazard removal and pokemon to check those said checks. However checks such as Toxapex, Seismitoad, Defensive Kommo-o and Maybe vaporeon and gastrodon. But you´re starting to see a pattern. They are all water and dragon types. And what pokemon can rip them to shreads that dracovish is paired up with? Zeraora. Plasma fist for pex and vaporeon and grass knot for gastrodon and seismitoad. As for kommo-o? The mon is teamed up with wish teleport clefable which doesn´t need any special attack to ohko. But even then. That is the thing with dracovish. If your one mon to check or counter it is dead then you would already lost. Pokemon like Cinderace, Rotom Heat, Hatterene, Grimmsnarl and tyranitar are all fodder mons and nothing but dog food to this pitbull. Now you might be wondering. Why not just ban fishious rend? Because arctovish exists and its not the problem here. Why does dracozolt get a pass but dracovish doesn´t? Because dracozolt actually has reliable checks and counter whereas dracovish doesn´t. ¨If it gets banned then the metagame will get stale¨ Not only is that subjective statement but who cares. Dracovish will make this metagame even worse if it stays.
Want more proof? Rain dracovish is beyond overpowered. While it doesn´t get a speed boost fishious rend does become even stronger. And by stronger i mean being able to ko pex after rocks and 1 spike layer.
A few calcs here just to prove a point.
252+ Atk Choice Band Strong Jaw Dracovish Fishious Rend (170 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex in Rain: 212-250 (69.7 - 82.2%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock and 1 layer of Spikes
252+ Atk Choice Band Dracovish Outrage vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Seismitoad: 217-256 (52.4 - 61.8%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Dracovish Outrage vs. 252 HP / 200+ Def Kommo-o: 320-380 (90.3 - 107.3%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Strong Jaw Dracovish Psychic Fangs vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 190-224 (62.5 - 73.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Black Sludge recovery
Tl;dr. Gamefreak doesn't understand balance.
Even back when both galarian darmanitan and dynamax were around it was still a menace. First off lets go over its switch ins and checks shall we?
Scarf dracovish is slower than both Dragapult and Zeraora because of its speed being 75 and with a jolly nature combined with choice scarf is a total of 405. Meaning that they won't do much damage right? Right. However when it comes down to it scarf is basically useless now thanks to another stradgedy for dracovish. Webs choice band. see choice band dracovish is really slow and needs support from mons like clef, hazard removal and pokemon to check those said checks. However checks such as Toxapex, Seismitoad, Defensive Kommo-o and Maybe vaporeon and gastrodon. But you´re starting to see a pattern. They are all water and dragon types. And what pokemon can rip them to shreads that dracovish is paired up with? Zeraora. Plasma fist for pex and vaporeon and grass knot for gastrodon and seismitoad. As for kommo-o? The mon is teamed up with wish teleport clefable which doesn´t need any special attack to ohko. But even then. That is the thing with dracovish. If your one mon to check or counter it is dead then you would already lost. Pokemon like Cinderace, Rotom Heat, Hatterene, Grimmsnarl and tyranitar are all fodder mons and nothing but dog food to this pitbull. Now you might be wondering. Why not just ban fishious rend? Because arctovish exists and its not the problem here. Why does dracozolt get a pass but dracovish doesn´t? Because dracozolt actually has reliable checks and counter whereas dracovish doesn´t. ¨If it gets banned then the metagame will get stale¨ Not only is that subjective statement but who cares. Dracovish will make this metagame even worse if it stays.
Want more proof? Rain dracovish is beyond overpowered. While it doesn´t get a speed boost fishious rend does become even stronger. And by stronger i mean being able to ko pex after rocks and 1 spike layer.
A few calcs here just to prove a point.
252+ Atk Choice Band Strong Jaw Dracovish Fishious Rend (170 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex in Rain: 212-250 (69.7 - 82.2%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock and 1 layer of Spikes
252+ Atk Choice Band Dracovish Outrage vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Seismitoad: 217-256 (52.4 - 61.8%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Dracovish Outrage vs. 252 HP / 200+ Def Kommo-o: 320-380 (90.3 - 107.3%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Strong Jaw Dracovish Psychic Fangs vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 190-224 (62.5 - 73.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Black Sludge recovery
Tl;dr. Gamefreak doesn't understand balance.
whitnerd
Banned deucer.
Yes, I said A which implied B, but it was not what I said or what I meant. I am just making sure that I don't seem ignorant nor naive to the fallacy you pointed out, and it was not wrong for you to do so.
ok now that im a bit more awake. lets get vish out of here please.
I think the key issue we face here is dexit generally limiting our options to out / check vish effectively. Even the fatter, momentum sapping, options cannot effectively give you some semblance of defense against vish.
The next thing is to consider our thought process when we engage in teambuilding. Let's say we start with a core of mon you'd love to try, your next question to yourself would be "Should I add Seismitoad for rocks or should I use something else?" The reason for this question is not because of how much role compression seismitoad has but most importantly because it vitally checks vish if played well and combined with the fact that it has role compression, makes it a very useful mon to slap onto a team.
Removing vish from this equation makes teambuilding a little bit more varied since it would mean the common toad clef heattom +fillers cores would probably see lesser usage since Tox and other water checks are a lot better at handling the water types of the tier. In fact, we would no longer necessitate a need to consider water resist on teams because the water types of the tier (except for rain but without vish it is a lot more lackluster) are far and few in between.
From a battle perspective I think this has always been the case whenever we have an overwhelming mon that can run through it's counters and checks easily (cue PTSD from Mega Mawile / Hoopa ORAS). Often, arguments against slow but heavy hitting mons is that their speed is always a mitigating factor and that can easily be true if not for one vitally crucial fact that exists for Vish: Fishous Rend.
Fishous Rend can easily pick up kills outside of the norm for heavy hitters and that itself forces games to become mind game for your opponents and brain dead for you. As the vish user, it doesn't matter what move you click as long as vish is in freely (which isn't difficult due to the omnipresence of teleport clef and volt turn tactics) because once you have weakened the checks and countered enough, other mons can clean up.
Now some players might say that vish can't clean up on it's own, can't 6-0, therefore it shouldnt be banned. But the fact is, fishous rend itself is able to put such a stress on the gamestate between you and your opponent as you are often forced to either 1. sac to bring in toad or 2. bring in toad and risk the 3hko if not banded. By the time you are able to properly deal with vish, the gamestate might have already been skewed to a point beyond repair, causing your loss in the game largely because of the presence vish and the strain you felt as you necessitated the need to keep your vish check healthy and juggle the roles among your other mons.
so yeah, lets just have some curry fish head for dinner or something and ban this boi
I think the key issue we face here is dexit generally limiting our options to out / check vish effectively. Even the fatter, momentum sapping, options cannot effectively give you some semblance of defense against vish.
The next thing is to consider our thought process when we engage in teambuilding. Let's say we start with a core of mon you'd love to try, your next question to yourself would be "Should I add Seismitoad for rocks or should I use something else?" The reason for this question is not because of how much role compression seismitoad has but most importantly because it vitally checks vish if played well and combined with the fact that it has role compression, makes it a very useful mon to slap onto a team.
Removing vish from this equation makes teambuilding a little bit more varied since it would mean the common toad clef heattom +fillers cores would probably see lesser usage since Tox and other water checks are a lot better at handling the water types of the tier. In fact, we would no longer necessitate a need to consider water resist on teams because the water types of the tier (except for rain but without vish it is a lot more lackluster) are far and few in between.
From a battle perspective I think this has always been the case whenever we have an overwhelming mon that can run through it's counters and checks easily (cue PTSD from Mega Mawile / Hoopa ORAS). Often, arguments against slow but heavy hitting mons is that their speed is always a mitigating factor and that can easily be true if not for one vitally crucial fact that exists for Vish: Fishous Rend.
Fishous Rend can easily pick up kills outside of the norm for heavy hitters and that itself forces games to become mind game for your opponents and brain dead for you. As the vish user, it doesn't matter what move you click as long as vish is in freely (which isn't difficult due to the omnipresence of teleport clef and volt turn tactics) because once you have weakened the checks and countered enough, other mons can clean up.
Now some players might say that vish can't clean up on it's own, can't 6-0, therefore it shouldnt be banned. But the fact is, fishous rend itself is able to put such a stress on the gamestate between you and your opponent as you are often forced to either 1. sac to bring in toad or 2. bring in toad and risk the 3hko if not banded. By the time you are able to properly deal with vish, the gamestate might have already been skewed to a point beyond repair, causing your loss in the game largely because of the presence vish and the strain you felt as you necessitated the need to keep your vish check healthy and juggle the roles among your other mons.
so yeah, lets just have some curry fish head for dinner or something and ban this boi
Just by a looking at a wall of calcs, it is very easy to understand that Dracovish is a powerful wallbreaker and when looking at this thread for the first time, I wanted to ban it just like many others in this thread. When laddering for reqs, I used two supposedly Dracovish weak teams, here.
Using these two teams, it was surprisingly easy to play around and beat Dracovish, where it usually went to a 1 for 1 against Banded Dracovish, which is really good for teams weak to them and I honestly didn't mind seeing a Dracovish in the preview one bit.
Therefore, the supposed massive teambuilding deterrence that many blame on Dracovish is vastly overstated. Seismitoad or Toxapex are not mandated on defensive builds since shakier switchins like Ferrothorn and Kommo-o, if played well, are more than capable of beating it.
Let me make this very clear: Band Dracovish is very similar to other breakers such as Kyurem, Terrakion, Specs Aegislash, and Close Combat Conkeldurr also having very few if any viable switchins, each with pretty similar viabilities and unique perks and downsides. It is completely impossible to have a hard counter to each of these, but balance teams still thrive because there is a lot of room to outplay them, using shakier checks. Dracovish has a monstrous amount of raw power, making many believe that complete preparation in Seismitoad or Toxapex is necessary and think that therefore, Dracovish greatly restricts teambuilding.
The strength of Band Dracovish is pretty obvious: the fact that it has immediate power, making it come in on numerous slower pokemon given a correct prediction, but it has two huge flaws that make it significantly easier to outplay or outright defeat it. First off, while its typing gives it very few weaknesses, of only dragon and fairy(and freeze dry), makes it hard to switch in, notably being weak to clefable's moonblast and taking over a third of its health from neutral attacks from walls like Corviknight and Hippowdon, making it worn down very easily. Combined with a terrible speed of 249 for a breaker, Dracovish is really easy to revenge kill, by something like a Kyurem, Hydreigon, or Dragapult. Secondly, Dracovish is checked extremely well by Seismitoad, and even with a correct prediction onto it(usually risking dracovish), it can click psychic fangs, which Seismitoad can switch out of predicting a switch, or click outrage and the seismitoad user can either hope for a 3 turn outrage and revenge kill or pivot into something like a clefable and heal seismitoad right back up. This often forces Seismitoad lures, such as Power Whip Seismitoad, or grass knot on something like a Zeraora or Jirachi, which can all be scouted for and increase skill needed.
Lastly, I want to point out that Seismitoad is really good even outside of beating dracovish. It stops volt switch from Rotom-H and one of the best checks to it in the tier and can easily check/counter sweepers like Bulk Up Zeraora and SD Aegi, all while being a reliable rocker with utility in moves like knock off.
tl;dr: I got reqs and am leaning no ban since dracovish is similar to other breakers using balances or bulky offenses with virtually any water resist without seismitoad, which is already more than viable without Dracovish and is an extremely good Dracovish answer.
Using these two teams, it was surprisingly easy to play around and beat Dracovish, where it usually went to a 1 for 1 against Banded Dracovish, which is really good for teams weak to them and I honestly didn't mind seeing a Dracovish in the preview one bit.
On offensive teams without wishport clefable, I could simply chip down Dracovish with sand, hazards, and helmet ferro and beat it, usually trading ferro 1 for 1 with Dracovish. On the Excadrill sand team, I had leftovers on Ferrothorn, but it was almost impossible for dracovish users to come in besides aggressive doubles onto Clefable and I often could catch those doubles and if not, I could quite easily beat Scarf Dracovish with Ferrothorn and could still use Ferrothorn as an emergency banded switchin, alongside having drill and terrak to revenge kill it when it was slightly weakened. On teams that had both a Dracovish and a WishPort Clefable, it was fairly easy for me to use the fact that they usually lacked another breaker paired with Banded Dracovish and deterred its switchins by getting hazards and not going into dracovish weak pokemon when I didn't need to. It was also difficult for my opponents to pass wishes because Hippowdon could phase through protect and prevent a teleport into Dracovish
Therefore, the supposed massive teambuilding deterrence that many blame on Dracovish is vastly overstated. Seismitoad or Toxapex are not mandated on defensive builds since shakier switchins like Ferrothorn and Kommo-o, if played well, are more than capable of beating it.
Let me make this very clear: Band Dracovish is very similar to other breakers such as Kyurem, Terrakion, Specs Aegislash, and Close Combat Conkeldurr also having very few if any viable switchins, each with pretty similar viabilities and unique perks and downsides. It is completely impossible to have a hard counter to each of these, but balance teams still thrive because there is a lot of room to outplay them, using shakier checks. Dracovish has a monstrous amount of raw power, making many believe that complete preparation in Seismitoad or Toxapex is necessary and think that therefore, Dracovish greatly restricts teambuilding.
The strength of Band Dracovish is pretty obvious: the fact that it has immediate power, making it come in on numerous slower pokemon given a correct prediction, but it has two huge flaws that make it significantly easier to outplay or outright defeat it. First off, while its typing gives it very few weaknesses, of only dragon and fairy(and freeze dry), makes it hard to switch in, notably being weak to clefable's moonblast and taking over a third of its health from neutral attacks from walls like Corviknight and Hippowdon, making it worn down very easily. Combined with a terrible speed of 249 for a breaker, Dracovish is really easy to revenge kill, by something like a Kyurem, Hydreigon, or Dragapult. Secondly, Dracovish is checked extremely well by Seismitoad, and even with a correct prediction onto it(usually risking dracovish), it can click psychic fangs, which Seismitoad can switch out of predicting a switch, or click outrage and the seismitoad user can either hope for a 3 turn outrage and revenge kill or pivot into something like a clefable and heal seismitoad right back up. This often forces Seismitoad lures, such as Power Whip Seismitoad, or grass knot on something like a Zeraora or Jirachi, which can all be scouted for and increase skill needed.
Lastly, I want to point out that Seismitoad is really good even outside of beating dracovish. It stops volt switch from Rotom-H and one of the best checks to it in the tier and can easily check/counter sweepers like Bulk Up Zeraora and SD Aegi, all while being a reliable rocker with utility in moves like knock off.
tl;dr: I got reqs and am leaning no ban since dracovish is similar to other breakers using balances or bulky offenses with virtually any water resist without seismitoad, which is already more than viable without Dracovish and is an extremely good Dracovish answer.
Vish is not super super good in this meta because the meta has adapted to it well (which is why Vish is not ranked S in the viability ranking thread). I think it should be banned solely because of the restrictions it places on teambuilding (basically you either have to use toad or ferro + baneful bunker pex unless you go for a niche water absorber to not be very weak to banded Vish). I understand that there are still ways to still play around Vish as the user above pointed out, but you still need to vastly outplay the Vish user as a player most of the time in order to do this (plus imo scarf Vish isn’t broken and is much more manageable to play around opposed to banded Vish). These restrictions contribute to a stale, cookie-cutter meta and banning Vish will help fix this, which is why it is unhealthy. I think Vish is a great example of a mon that is clearly not S rank but also clearly worth deserving of a ban.
Furthermore, there is one giant difference between Vish and most other breakers: Vish requires virtually no prediction unless they have a water immune mon (just click Fishious Rend). Something like Specs Kyurem, on the other hand, may have the potential to get a kill against unprepared teams every time it comes in, but has to predict correctly (and almost all teams have an immunity to Earth Power and Draco Meteor).
Furthermore, there is one giant difference between Vish and most other breakers: Vish requires virtually no prediction unless they have a water immune mon (just click Fishious Rend). Something like Specs Kyurem, on the other hand, may have the potential to get a kill against unprepared teams every time it comes in, but has to predict correctly (and almost all teams have an immunity to Earth Power and Draco Meteor).
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I think that the healthiest result for this tier, at this time, is for Dracovish to be banned. I want to explain why I went from someone who was very strongly in favor of this mon being banned in December, to being on the fence about it / slightly no-ban as of late, but now agrees it should go.
First, I do not think Dracovish is broken by design. Its stats are generally mediocre by traditional OU standards. It is generally bulky enough to avoid OHKOs from most faster offensive pokemon, but usually not more than once in a game, and it is never going to want to stay in and trade hits like that anyway. It is often quite prediction reliant against any team that packs one of its many checks or counters, which is most teams. It doesn’t inject any additional RNG into the game, and even when it does get a prediction or a true 50/50 turn right, I find that only the Choice band set ever meaningfully rewards clicking another move besides Fishious Rend. It’s just not worth the extra residual damage and loss of momentum to risk clicking weak coverage moves if you can avoid it.
So, is Dracovish broken by definition? I discussed this in an earlier post, and I don’t want to rehash the whole thing, but I can summarize: It has checks, counters, and some shaky checks to the banded set counter the scarf set. Those checks are not niche in the metagame, they do serve other useful functions outside of solely checking Dracovish, and you are not at a disadvantage for using e.g. Seismitoad, even if another rocks setter or bulky ground/water might be more viable in the meta. You’re certainly not at a disadvantage if you aren’t running it, and until recently, it was so prepared for that people weren’t bothering to run it because it can feel like dead weight against builds that over-prep for it. There are many moments in practice where it does not feel remotely broken, whether I’m using it or fighting it.
Honestly, I do not think this suspect has anything to do with whether Dracovish is broken or not. I do not think people care. If this suspect is supposed to gauge whether the community thinks we have sufficient defensive counterplay in this tier to handle Dracovish+Fishious Rend, then the answer is yes and we can all go home. The real question is whether we want to be stuck with the reality of Dracovish+DEXIT for the foreseeable future.
Just as Seismitoad is immune to Fishious Rend, Dracovish is immune to metagame trends. Its defensive counterplay will not change with time. You will never truly counter the banded set without a water immunity. Only two mons outspeed Scarf Dracovish offensively, only one can OHKO from full, and that will not change in the foreseeable future. This is not just because I say so: its raw damage output invalidates anything that is not a hard check or an immunity, and Scarf Dracovish isn’t miraculously going to get any slower. Nothing has significantly changed for this mon since its release except for which set it prefers to run more often, and how potent Rain teams are at any given time. It will only get “worse” to the extent that people get tired of playing the guessing game in the teambuilder and prep for it, and it will get “better” when people choose not to run its checks. People’s exhaustion at using the same shit again and again is not evidence of a metagame naturally progressing and using different optimal mons/strategies to win. It is a sign that Dracovish is extremely unhealthy to begin with.
I personally think that Dracovish can ultimately be healthy and manageable in a tier that has at least a few more defensive checks (see NatDex OU: Mega Slowbro, Tangrowth, Alomomola, Tapu bulu, etc.) and offensive checks that can either OHKO or win a one on one (many things). If DLC offers us more of these options, I would like to see Dracovish retested at a later time. However, NatDex is not this tier, and that time is not now. This metagame is stale and un-enjoyable to play relative to its non-Dexit counterparts. Removing a mon which negates the development of defensive cores in the meta is a great start toward fixing it.
First, I do not think Dracovish is broken by design. Its stats are generally mediocre by traditional OU standards. It is generally bulky enough to avoid OHKOs from most faster offensive pokemon, but usually not more than once in a game, and it is never going to want to stay in and trade hits like that anyway. It is often quite prediction reliant against any team that packs one of its many checks or counters, which is most teams. It doesn’t inject any additional RNG into the game, and even when it does get a prediction or a true 50/50 turn right, I find that only the Choice band set ever meaningfully rewards clicking another move besides Fishious Rend. It’s just not worth the extra residual damage and loss of momentum to risk clicking weak coverage moves if you can avoid it.
So, is Dracovish broken by definition? I discussed this in an earlier post, and I don’t want to rehash the whole thing, but I can summarize: It has checks, counters, and some shaky checks to the banded set counter the scarf set. Those checks are not niche in the metagame, they do serve other useful functions outside of solely checking Dracovish, and you are not at a disadvantage for using e.g. Seismitoad, even if another rocks setter or bulky ground/water might be more viable in the meta. You’re certainly not at a disadvantage if you aren’t running it, and until recently, it was so prepared for that people weren’t bothering to run it because it can feel like dead weight against builds that over-prep for it. There are many moments in practice where it does not feel remotely broken, whether I’m using it or fighting it.
Honestly, I do not think this suspect has anything to do with whether Dracovish is broken or not. I do not think people care. If this suspect is supposed to gauge whether the community thinks we have sufficient defensive counterplay in this tier to handle Dracovish+Fishious Rend, then the answer is yes and we can all go home. The real question is whether we want to be stuck with the reality of Dracovish+DEXIT for the foreseeable future.
Just as Seismitoad is immune to Fishious Rend, Dracovish is immune to metagame trends. Its defensive counterplay will not change with time. You will never truly counter the banded set without a water immunity. Only two mons outspeed Scarf Dracovish offensively, only one can OHKO from full, and that will not change in the foreseeable future. This is not just because I say so: its raw damage output invalidates anything that is not a hard check or an immunity, and Scarf Dracovish isn’t miraculously going to get any slower. Nothing has significantly changed for this mon since its release except for which set it prefers to run more often, and how potent Rain teams are at any given time. It will only get “worse” to the extent that people get tired of playing the guessing game in the teambuilder and prep for it, and it will get “better” when people choose not to run its checks. People’s exhaustion at using the same shit again and again is not evidence of a metagame naturally progressing and using different optimal mons/strategies to win. It is a sign that Dracovish is extremely unhealthy to begin with.
I personally think that Dracovish can ultimately be healthy and manageable in a tier that has at least a few more defensive checks (see NatDex OU: Mega Slowbro, Tangrowth, Alomomola, Tapu bulu, etc.) and offensive checks that can either OHKO or win a one on one (many things). If DLC offers us more of these options, I would like to see Dracovish retested at a later time. However, NatDex is not this tier, and that time is not now. This metagame is stale and un-enjoyable to play relative to its non-Dexit counterparts. Removing a mon which negates the development of defensive cores in the meta is a great start toward fixing it.
Dracovish has always been a fascinating case to me. What if we were to put the combination of a 170BP Water Type Bite Move on a Strong Jaw, unholy abomination version of Kingdra? Lo and behold, we got this thing. Fair warning, this will be a long post to get all my thoughts out on this thing, which have been building up since its introduction. Keep in mind, I'm not the most eloquent of writers, so if anything sticks out as wrong or just plain misinformed, please let me know and I'll try to remedy it.
As I was writing this up yesterday, there were two general trends that hadn't been mentioned which I will briefly bring up before getting into my main points.
1. Dracovish is, to an extent, an uncompetitive Pokemon.
2. Dracovish, to an extent, lacks consistent, viable defensive counterplay. Therefore, it has the makings of a potentially broken Pokemon.
Now to tell a joke I just thought of, which made me cringe. So naturally I have to share it with all of you. I promise it ties into my post, pls no ban.
As I was writing this up yesterday, there were two general trends that hadn't been mentioned which I will briefly bring up before getting into my main points.
- Teleport Clef, who is able to bring in Vish (and a number of other problematic breakers) in with relatively little risk. To a lesser extent, this trend also includes the abundance of U-Turn and Volt Switch users being utilized. See the post by Is Dracovish Banned Yet? (and holy shit was I waiting for this post, good stuff you gem of a meme) referencing the S tier in this regard. Though this problem extends far beyond just this tier of the viability rankings.
- Semi-Rain teams running Pelipper, with Vish and Ferrothorn as the only abusers. This allows Vish to render otherwise 'reliable' defensive counterplay, not including Water Immunities, invalid. Credit to p2 for bringing this up in the Metagame Discussion Thread.
1. Dracovish is, to an extent, an uncompetitive Pokemon.
- Dracovish places a major restriction on teambuilding, even though it only runs two sets. More so than what I consider its greatest unbanned counterpart in recent gens, Ash-Greninja. More so in fact, than anything I have seen in OU in my time here, outside of clear cut bans like Mega-Salamence. This severely limits team building skill expression through necessitating one of a pool of approximately 5 viable Pokemon on the vast majority of teams.
- I would argue that Dracovish poses similar issues to those of Baton Pass. In that its presence affects battling skill expression, instead emphasizing team matchup to an unhealthy degree. Even making the best possible moves, if you lack sufficient counterplay to Dracovish, you will lose at team preview. Admittedly, Vish's counterplay is far less niche.
- Dracovish has a low skill-floor, and a low skill-ceiling. This is generally not an issue for me when it comes to Pokemon. However, this combined with Dracovish's ability to punch a malformed fish-head shaped hole in teams leads to issues of battling skill. Further issues arise from a combination with the abundance of U-Turn, Volt Switch and Teleport Clefable I mentioned above. This combination leads to circumstances where skillful play is not necessarily rewarded, or even encouraged.
- The reason I list this as my weakest point is the extent to which it is uncompetitive. It does not dictate usage in the way that previous clear-cut bans have, think Mega Kang, Lucario and Mence. It also doesn't affect battling skill and/or team building skill in such a way that it renders them completely ineffective, think Baton Pass or Moody. This is reflected when matching up to the tiering policy definition of uncompetitive. Dracovish is an element that makes "more skillful play" irrelevant some of the time. I would still argue this Pokemon is uncompetitive, but not to the point where if it was the sole issue I would argue for a ban.
- Dreadfury my friend, I have to disagree with you in listing Gastro as the one true Dracovish counter. Even that drops to Adamant Banded Outrage in 2 turns. Toad, Vaporeon, every water absorber under the sun drops to this move in 2 turns save Lapras (and good luck winning if you use defensive Lapras). At this point you need to be running 2 Dracovish 'answers'. I will keep doing 'air quotes' over words that are meant half jokingly. That being said, Lameflame is correct in saying that you are not put at a major disadvantage in running Toad + Ferro for example, to alleviate some of these issues.
- Toxapex and Ferrothorn running physically defensive sets are your other best option for Dracovish checks. These, without a Water Absorbing partner get overwhelmed by Band Vish over time. Not to mention Semi-Rain, which just makes these 'checks', cheques to the elo bank if you will.
- Again, this is to a certain extent. Fisheous Rend itself has counterplay, and does not invalidate "more skillful play", when you have a check or two on your very standard balance. However, the damage output this thing can reach is just absurd. I would argue that it is in some parts, too good compared to the rest of the metagame. This includes the various necessary vulnerabilities that running 2 Vish checks on any team leaves to other common metagame threats. Not being able to run specially defensive sets on Ferrothorn or Toxapex springs to mind. The locking up of clear best options in teambuilding is another, disallowing other Pokemon from viability. This leads into my third, and in my opinion strongest point.
- In some ways, Dracovish touches upon both being broken, and uncompetitive. Through these, and its wider effects on teambuilding, I would argue that Dracovish is ultimately unhealthy for the OU metagame at large.
- Forcing people to run 1 or 2 checks to a breaker on every team is something I do not believe we have ever really seen to the level that we have with this Pokemon. It has single-handedly warped the metagame around itself even more so than Pokemon with twice its usage. It has restricted teambuilding in ways that negatively affect players' abilities to show teambuilding skill, and also battling skill.
- I know this should not be the focus of a ban in most cases, but here, I feel the problem is so abhorrent that it is clear that a ban should take place. The combination of these factors just leads to this metagame being stale, bland and this will not change. I do not think that this is the only change that should happen. But I do believe that this ban will lead to a much healthier metagame.
Now to tell a joke I just thought of, which made me cringe. So naturally I have to share it with all of you. I promise it ties into my post, pls no ban.
Mr Dracovish walks into his house, and heads out to the backyard. He looked at his home bar and notices some odd details. It looked like somebody had set up some form of miniature theater on the counter. Firstly, somebody had spray-painted a relatively large capital D on the left of a miniature fence on the set. What was even weirder, was somebody had taped a sieve onto the set. Very strange indeed. Mr Dracovish, blinked in surprise and shockingly, as soon as he did, it was gone. "Very inconsistent" thought Mr Dracovish.
In the end, there was no consistent D-fence-sieve counter-play.
I really dont think that Dracovish needs to be band. It has checks that are quite common and doesn’t have the best defenses. Ferrothorn is a common mon that can check Dracovish and fufil its other role. Other mons that check it like Pex wich is less commom, but is still used can scald burn it.
And Dracovish has a quite mideling atk of 90 after a burn really cant hurt pex. And since it only has a base speed of 80 it really isn’t a fast scarfer being outspeeded By scarfed Hydreigon and Timid/Jolly Dragapult outspeeds and kills with draco, any other dragon move you uses depending on the set. Scarf Kyreum kills any Dracovish, and a Dracovish that doesn’t run scarf loses to specs Kyreum.
Toad is a thing and if you dont run rain and swift swim Toad cheks it if it went for Fishious Rend and heals it self. You can make the argument that Ferro and Pex are forced to run PysDef, but those mons often run PysDef themself. If you dont want to run Toad to check it you can always run Vaporen with yawn, Jellicent with Wisp or Gastrodon with its reliable recovery. All of these mons can check Dracovish and they have other niches.
Many of the dragons can take a hit if rocks are of the field, and finding that many of them can run a set that takes on Dracovish, and take care of it. Many of the dragons also run/can run scarf Be effective and take on Dracovish should be reassuring.
Zerora outspeeds and can take out Dracovish with a PR. Offensive mons that check Dracovish can often use the move they use to take out Dracovish on other threats as that move can often hit other mons, or that move is your stab move.
A team should always have a water resist this theme has been recurring for the last couple of generations. Many of Dracovish checks don’t get the best recovery besides Pex, but with the amount clef is used and its wish support the checks for Dracovish on your team can stay around for longer.
The HO teams this generation always have offensive checks to Dracovish, beaucause of it only reaching 409 it really isn’t a good scarfer. As most HO teams have scarfers that outspeed that. HO teams can also set up screens if they have a mon that can set up Screens as the relevant Grim on a lot of Ho teams.
The fact is that Offensive, Balanced and Defensive teams all have checks to Dracovish. That is why i don’t think that Dracovish should be banned. Dracovish is also very useful In checking wish and generally Clefable. Wich is extremely useful. Wich is why i would say that Dracovish has the same potential as Volcerona. Dracovish can be stopped and shuld not be banned.
And Dracovish has a quite mideling atk of 90 after a burn really cant hurt pex. And since it only has a base speed of 80 it really isn’t a fast scarfer being outspeeded By scarfed Hydreigon and Timid/Jolly Dragapult outspeeds and kills with draco, any other dragon move you uses depending on the set. Scarf Kyreum kills any Dracovish, and a Dracovish that doesn’t run scarf loses to specs Kyreum.
Toad is a thing and if you dont run rain and swift swim Toad cheks it if it went for Fishious Rend and heals it self. You can make the argument that Ferro and Pex are forced to run PysDef, but those mons often run PysDef themself. If you dont want to run Toad to check it you can always run Vaporen with yawn, Jellicent with Wisp or Gastrodon with its reliable recovery. All of these mons can check Dracovish and they have other niches.
Many of the dragons can take a hit if rocks are of the field, and finding that many of them can run a set that takes on Dracovish, and take care of it. Many of the dragons also run/can run scarf Be effective and take on Dracovish should be reassuring.
Zerora outspeeds and can take out Dracovish with a PR. Offensive mons that check Dracovish can often use the move they use to take out Dracovish on other threats as that move can often hit other mons, or that move is your stab move.
A team should always have a water resist this theme has been recurring for the last couple of generations. Many of Dracovish checks don’t get the best recovery besides Pex, but with the amount clef is used and its wish support the checks for Dracovish on your team can stay around for longer.
The HO teams this generation always have offensive checks to Dracovish, beaucause of it only reaching 409 it really isn’t a good scarfer. As most HO teams have scarfers that outspeed that. HO teams can also set up screens if they have a mon that can set up Screens as the relevant Grim on a lot of Ho teams.
The fact is that Offensive, Balanced and Defensive teams all have checks to Dracovish. That is why i don’t think that Dracovish should be banned. Dracovish is also very useful In checking wish and generally Clefable. Wich is extremely useful. Wich is why i would say that Dracovish has the same potential as Volcerona. Dracovish can be stopped and shuld not be banned.
On your point about Ferro and Pex running phydef sets - I think they are forced to run such sets precisely because of Dracovish. Otherwise, Ferro and Pex can spread out their EVs more between their defenses and gain some special bulk (i.e. become mixed walls or special walls) which can really change outcomes in certain match-ups. If this isn't centralising, am not sure what better examples are there.
That guy switched in vish into a pex like it is gonna OHKO it, and just let it got posioned, and switched out vish on pex when it did already 50%, has a chance to kill and already posioned vish
i dont think it is that meaningful to discuss this replay
i believe that list goes with ferro as well, and i will even argue ferro is a better check then pex as spikes over rocks are needed for 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Strong Jaw Dracovish Fishious Rend (170 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Ferrothorn: 158-186 (44.8 - 52.8%) -- 86.7% chance to 2HKO after 1 layer of Spikes and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Strong Jaw Dracovish Fishious Rend (170 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 141-167 (46.3 - 54.9%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Black Sludge recovery
And the two teams you have both have ferro
All 3 S mons as some kind of pivoting move, makes it very easy to switch in tbh, and it is easy to revenge kill yes, but when it switches out it will nab another KO or two later on, and toad is the only reliable counter to it
btw you need to keep toad extremely healthy to be able to constantly switch into predicted psychic fangs and crunch, and a good vish player can outplay and force clef out before using wish
VZR
formerly Venomshoc
Specs kyurem is kinda a bad example here imo since it just kinda clicks freeze dry instead of fishious rend.
Choice Scarf Dracovish is unable to break through physdef Celebi and with Thunder Wave it ends up slower.
252+ Atk Strong Jaw Dracovish Crunch vs. 248 HP / 172+ Def Celebi: 172-204 (42.6 - 50.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Strong Jaw Dracovish Fishious Rend (170 BP) vs. 248 HP / 172+ Def Celebi: 137-162 (33.9 - 40.1%) -- 35.4% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
By definition this makes Celebi a Counter to Choice Scarf since it's able to switch in and beat Dracovish 1v1
Celebi can also Check Choice Band Dracovish because if it switches into any move other than Crunch then Celebi is safe.
252+ Atk Choice Band Strong Jaw Dracovish Fishious Rend (170 BP) vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 206-243 (51.1 - 60.2%) -- 89.1% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Dracovish Outrage vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 195-229 (48.3 - 56.8%) -- 36.3% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Strong Jaw Dracovish Crunch vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 260-306 (64.5 - 75.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
(Celebi is Faster than band Dracovish)
Celebi can sometimes safely switch into Choice Band Dracovish, and in a 1v1 it is able to win by using Grass Knot to 2HKO Dracovish
Celebi also beats every Zeraora except for Bulk Up Knock Off, can paralyze Corviknight, and it isn't weak to Clefable. As I said before, it also has Stealth Rock, Thunder Wave, and U turn along with a decent attacking movepool making it fairly viable in this meta (idk why it's so low in the VR)
If anything I said is incorrect please explain why
Celebi @ Leftovers / Rocky Helmet
Ability: Natural Cure
EVs: 248 HP / 168 Def / 36 SpA / 56 Spe
Bold Nature
- Recover
- Grass Knot
- Thunder Wave
- U-turn / Stealth Rock / Attacking Move
36 SpA Celebi Grass Knot (120 BP) vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Dracovish: 162-192 (50.3 - 59.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Ability: Natural Cure
EVs: 248 HP / 168 Def / 36 SpA / 56 Spe
Bold Nature
- Recover
- Grass Knot
- Thunder Wave
- U-turn / Stealth Rock / Attacking Move
36 SpA Celebi Grass Knot (120 BP) vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Dracovish: 162-192 (50.3 - 59.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Strong Jaw Dracovish Crunch vs. 252 HP / 172+ Def Celebi: 172-204 (42.5 - 50.4%) -- 36.3% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
You are relying on no rocks being up, no chip at all, and lefties (but your set slashes rocky helmet) in order to survive scarf (not band) Vish.
If you change to one of the slashes you included and rocks are up:
252+ Atk Strong Jaw Dracovish Crunch vs. 252 HP / 172+ Def Celebi: 172-204 (42.5 - 50.4%) -- 94.1% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
On paper, this is a pretty shaky check (what if you get a def drop from crunch?) What if it's banded? Then you do literally nothing, since after rocks and crunch/rend you're left under half and forced to heal, sacrificing either momentum or your Vish "counter" (since if you choose to do literally anything but recover, Celebi can no longer switch into even fisheous rend).
In addition, Celebi is weak to knock off/ghosts & quad weak to u-turn (both major elements of this meta).
Have you actually tried these sets on the ladder?
Edit: I want to add that, while I reply often and my tone can be lost to text, I'm not trying to beat anyone up here. One of my schticks is trying random mons in OU to see if they can fit in any kind of niche that something else doesn't already do better. I have tried defensive Celebi. It didn't work consistently at all and usually just opened me up to being destroyed by any number of the very big threats in the meta.
I ask if you've tried them because this seems like one of those paper theories that haven't been tested fully. They can work under ideal circumstances where you have 100% control of the game state, but that is not a realistic expectation. The reason toad is used as the best counter for dracovish is that is will always live a hit from it and if it is 7%+ health, will always stop a fisheous rend. It can then follow up with something of value for your team, be that a knock off, toxic, stealth rock, or simply an attack. Celebi does not do that consistently.
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Okay, so a completely supportive Pokemon built to withstand one specific Pokemon. I'd love to waste one of my team slots with that Dracovish counter. Other than Dracovish and maybe Zeraora, it doesn't fare well against pretty much anything else in the meta. It gets screwed over by U-turn and Air Slash, both of which are reasonably common moves, and people, as I've said before, don't want to waste a slot on a Dracovish counter. As McCoolDude said above, the counter itself is very shaky. Not a very good counter in my opinion.
I have not been playing OU for a while, but I have seen enough replays and played enough early meta to see that the fish is busted. It restrains teambuilding in a way not even Aegislash in it's best moment could do, and even the mons it forces on people (phys def ferro, baneful bunker pex, toad) can be dealt with with prediction and (something I have not seen mentioned) other team mates.
Fish is not alone, it is part of a team, and most teams have ways to deal with the standard counterplay (lure grass moves, fire coverage, a ground type [though I find it weird to buld a team without a ground type], etc).
When a pokemon almost invalidates a playstile (stall) by itself, you know it is problematic. As much as I love stall being unviable, if I get reqs I will probably vote ban.
Fish is not alone, it is part of a team, and most teams have ways to deal with the standard counterplay (lure grass moves, fire coverage, a ground type [though I find it weird to buld a team without a ground type], etc).
When a pokemon almost invalidates a playstile (stall) by itself, you know it is problematic. As much as I love stall being unviable, if I get reqs I will probably vote ban.
First of all, I do run leftovers almost everytime and knock off and u turn aren't as bad as you think for celebi. The only pokemon who would ever click U Turn against Celebi is Corviknight and that does 41% max but that would require that Corviknight ends up getting paralyzed. Knock Off isn't too much of a problem since the only pokemon Celebi would switch into who could have knock off are Zeraora, Seismi, and Toxapex. Either way, It's pretty rare for celebi to be switching into rocks since Corviknight can almost always defog and the main Rocker is a Water Ground type that celebi can OHKO. Dracovish will never want to click Crunch and the chance of a defense drop is pretty low. And yes, I have tried this set and I have never struggled against Dracovish since unlike Pex and Ferro it can actually deal with Fishous Rend even after it has been knocked off
Celebi has the most reliable healing move in the game and always switches in without a status unless there a Toxic Spikes which don't really exist in this meta. It counter the majority of Zeraora sets so don't say "Maybe" as if it has a small chance of beating Zeraora. It can Paralyze Almost every switch in which pairs well with Hex Dragapult and Gengar. Hippo and Excadrill don't appreciate Excadrill and Celebi actually works fairly well as an excadrill check who can U turn into a faster mon. Keldeo is walled, +2 LO Stone Edge Terrakion can't OHKO, Togekiss is Paralyzed, Kommo-o is walled, Cinderace is paralyzed, Clefable is Paralyzed, Psychic does over 80% to Conk and Mach Punch does nothing, Clefable is faster than Modest Hydreigon if it gets paralyzed on the switch. Celebi will always have something even if the opponent doesn't have Dracovish.
36 SpA Celebi Psychic vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Conkeldurr: 284-336 (80.9 - 95.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after burn damage
36 SpA Celebi Grass Knot (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Hippowdon: 350-414 (83.3 - 98.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Mold Breaker Excadrill Iron Head vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 105-124 (26 - 30.7%) -- 4.2% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Zeraora Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 148-176 (36.7 - 43.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
+2 252 Atk Life Orb Terrakion Stone Edge vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 328-386 (81.3 - 95.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
0 Atk Corviknight U-turn vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 140-168 (34.7 - 41.6%) -- 66.9% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
36 SpA Celebi Grass Knot (120 BP) vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 180-212 (52.7 - 62.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
36 SpA Celebi Grass Knot (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Hippowdon: 350-414 (83.3 - 98.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Mold Breaker Excadrill Iron Head vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 105-124 (26 - 30.7%) -- 4.2% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Zeraora Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 148-176 (36.7 - 43.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
+2 252 Atk Life Orb Terrakion Stone Edge vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 328-386 (81.3 - 95.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
0 Atk Corviknight U-turn vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Celebi: 140-168 (34.7 - 41.6%) -- 66.9% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
36 SpA Celebi Grass Knot (120 BP) vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 180-212 (52.7 - 62.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
The set I've seen run is colbur celebi, which is one of the best conk checks in the game, a pretty good Terrak check, and also borderline counters Zeraora, whilst provide hazards and utility moves like twave and uturn, even outside of mentioning that it can repeatedly switch into Dracovish and heal up the damage itself.
I don't understand how Dracovish "invalidates" stall, they can easily run Water Absorb or Pex/Ferro cores. The reason why stall isnt a common pick is more because of similar breakers that just blow up teams and are similarly hard to beat as I mentioned in my post like CC Conk, Specs Aegi, or Specs Kyurem, all of which can 2hko virtually the entire metagame and most don't have nearly as hard of a check as Dracovish does in seismitoad. Also, a good player should expect grass lures + vish, increasing the skill barrier because both players think of a lure and clicking it at the correct time is the important part.
I swear I saw some mod called pex a counter to vish in this thread so I just went with it. Pex can baneful bunker and easily poison vish so vish is usually forced out by pex. Also, while I forgot to save replays, if anyone gives me a Dracovish weak team with at least some counterplay in a private convo, I'm more than happy to provide replays.
The 3 S rank mons are corviknight/rotom-h/clefable. Rotom-H can't pass good volts to Dracovish since its checks (dragons, seis, kommo) also overwhelmingly beat vish. Corviknight usually forgos uturn and its honestly not all that difficult to pressure, especially if you have something like a helmet ferro and do like 30% damage every time it tries to turn AND stop a dracovish switch. Clefable, I'll give you but usually you should use something like a ww hippo/iron head corvi that pressures it and prevent clef from easily switching in. My teams also both had fires(salazzle and rotom-h) and all of them could check clef and deal a large amount of damage to vish, which it couldnt heal if you pressure clef well. Also, you can pivot every other breaker in pretty easily.
You're handwaving this away like you've always got a perfect game state (which again, you'd need consistently for this to work. Rocks can't be up, it has to be scarf. It can't predict you and click crunch). Do you have some replays you could share?
Again, this isn't facetious. I would legitimately love to see Celebi work in OU.
Off the bat, as I'm viewing these posts, I noticed a ton of people saying, "Oh Dvish is fine because max defense Ferro and such"
Yeah but uh...
what about the rest of the team?
Yeah but uh...
what about the rest of the team?
We have to look at the full picture. Yes, of course, Dracovish has counters just as every Pokémon
tl;dr PLEASE BAN THIS STUPID DUMB IDIOT FFISH OMG SO BbROKEN!11!111!
U-turn or Pyro Ball from Cinderace 2HKOs, so unless you're unlucky, you're gonna kill the Celebi. You can also switch into an Electric type through U-Turn.
Okay, it paralyzes things. Your point? That's an inconsistent counter as best: Electric switch-ins, Lightning Rod, Priority, etc.
It has Recover, okay, most SE moves can still 3/4HKO even with repeated Recovers.
And this isn't about Celebi, this is about Dracovish. Dracovish can still 2HKO practically anything and screw me if you can predict when something is a Band set and not a Scarf.
Also this. A Celebi is a very very very inconsistent counter.
Thank you for condensing my point and then condensing it again with a TL;DR.
I think I should have chosen a better word. It does not invalidate stall per se, but it restricts it to a predictable bunch of pokemon (pex, thoron, toad), wich are dealt easily by onw ot two pokemon (as you said). Once a part of the core is broken, fish goes ham and destroys the rest of the team. I do admit my wording was poor there.
Also the skill cap argument goes both ways, and usually the player excerting offensive pressure has the advantage in those kind of scenarios: if the player on offense makes a mistake, it will probably not mean the end of game (say, to grass knot on a cleff switch in). on the other hand, the deffensive player making a mistake is much more prone to be punished (losing toad, for example, usually means one ot two extra pokemon will be compromised or KOed)
Other than Vish, the only thing your Celebi set would counter in the meta is Zera and Toad. So how is knock not a problem??? Also, your calcs say otherwise about your "Celebi is only 2HKOed by crunch" argument. There's still a hefty chance that FR 2HKOes too. There's also a 1/3 chance that outrage 2HKOes also. And to your point of, there's almost no u-turns in the meta, look at your own set that has uturn on it.
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