Last week so figured i'd write up some predictions! Looks like these series will all be good ones, good luck to everyone
[bolded tier name = highlight matchup]
Sjneiders Sjneasels (4) vs The Krusty Krabs (2)
SS NU: [45] GW vs
Ho3nConfirm3d [55] - is this nupl? nult? ladder? hard to keep track of everything these guys do. these two are both rising stars in nu competitive scene, and both have impressive SS NU records this NUPL. this is sort of a mirror matchup, haha. however, ho3n brings much more unconventional stuff than GW. it should be a super entertaining game to watch. slight edge to ho3n, feel like the standard stuff GW leans heavily on in ss nu is v exploitable and ho3n will bring a totally wild team that perfectly exploits it.
SS NU:
[60] yeezyknows vs Rabia [40] - yeezy k has been having an excellent nupl, going 5-1! however, this was in SM rather than SS, where he hasnt played all that much. rabia has played ss but hasn't looked super impressive, and I think the numerous ss players on the sneasels will help make up for yeezy's lack of experience in this meta. yeezy is the better player and should probably pull this off, although a rabia win can't be ruled out - especially with the added motivation of krabs needing a win to have a shot at playoffs.
USUM NU: [40] ILoveMilk vs
Jytcampbell [60] - jty is more experienced despite being 2-4 in this tier this nupl. sneasel's sm support, including that of the aforementioned yeezyk, should give the milkman a shot, though.
ORAS NU:
[55] Bouff vs Luthier [45] - these guys have each played 1 game in oras this nupl. both are good players. i'd say this is even except apparently the Krabs have not won a single game in oras this nupl??? so edge to sneasels
BW NU:
[60] Insult vs bugzinator [40] - if this game is played im betting on insult because he has a better record in the tier. bugzi is a good player too, though, so not too big of an edge for insult.
DPP NU: [55] brewfasa vs Staxi [45] - bolding fatty since i think he's a slightly better player with slightly more experience in the tier. staxi is 5-1, though! however, i still think brewfasa has the advantage in player skill & tier experience.
ADV NU: Triangles
vs M Dragon - both have excellent records and lots of experience in this tier; triangles has a slightly better record, m dragon is the more skilled player. impossible to predict this, should be a good one!
Bo3: ict
vs Finchinator - a realistic prediction would be for Finch to lose after getting crit in the last 3 turns of each game in this series. this man's luck is ATROCIOUS dear god. however, i'll put them even; both are very good players with lots of nu experience; ict is 4-1 this NUPL (including 2-1 bo3) while Finch has gone 3-3 in the high-quality Bo3 pool (with luck probably going against him). hard for me to say that much about this. by game probably ict 60-40 in SS, Finch 55-45 in the old gens.
The Pablo Zolts (2) vs
The Sacred Samurotts (4)
SS NU: [45] tko vs
Averardo [55] - between NULT and SS NU for all of NUPL, Averardo has quietly become one of the people with the most experience in and engagement with the SS NU meta. he's a good player with lots of meta knowledge, which is enough for me to give him the edge over tko, also a good player but one who has played less SS NU. Ave should be able to exploit the standard archetypes of this meta, which zolts have brought a lot of; definitely can't count tko out tho
SS NU:
[65] FLCL vs Skipkan [35] - he's flcl, a top all-time nu player, enough said. only question is motivation for this particular game, since he does a lot of other stuff and i think zolts have clinched. he can 100% get this win, though. no shade to skipkan or anything, though! he won his first nupl game in SS last wk which is more than i can say for myself, haha
USUM NU: [60] Santu vs Osh [40] - Both very good players, probably the highlight match of this series along with tko/ave. santu's an excellent player and 4-2 in the tier so i give him the edge. Osh is also a very good player; however, samurotts are 1-5 in SM NU, so I think Santu will probably have a better team / better knowledge of the tier. with a good matchup osh could pull it off, though.
ORAS NU: [45] SPACE FORCE meeps vs
Ren-chon [55] - I didn't realize but ren-chon is 4-1 in this tier?? dope. meeps has also been like middle of the pack in bw nu [not oras] and is good enough to win this, but ren-chon has been on an impressive enough run that i would bet on him against someone playing his first oras nu game of the season. zolts' manager lax is undefeated in ORAS NU, however, so team support is a factor in meeps' favor.
BW NU: TDK
vs HJAD - It's an important week for the Samurotts so maybe HJAD will actually bother to schedule. [lol i'm jk i swear!!] tdk is definitely the more experienced and talented player, but hasn't been at his peak form in the recent lower tier PLs; on top of that, zolts have clinched playoffs, so hjad will prob be more motivated. hjad has been middle of the pack in bw, though, so i'm not confident enough to give him an edge here
DPP NU: [40] ziloXX vs
Bughouse [60] - i would bet that ziloXX has never played DPP NU before, whereas bughouse has played this tier through multiple NUPLs. he hasn't posted a super impressive record in the tier this nupl, but won last week and should finish strong with a win here. zolts also have a below avg record in the dpp slot, so team support is unlikely to help ziloXX, whereas bughouse prob names his DPP NU teams "Untitled 3604" at this point.
ADV NU: [40] jacob vs
Watchog [60] - bolding the dude who has played the tier more; he has an average record in the tier so he def isn't unbeatable or anything, but he probably has the advantage. prep for BP!
Bo3: snaga
vs Tricking - both have fire ss records but i feel like tricking likely knows the other tiers better than snaga. [this might be wrong -- i just honestly do not know]. zolts have been better in SM and ORAS, though, so team support can probably help snaga in those tiers. in terms of player skill they are prob also even or slight edge to snaga. will leave this mu as even
The Moneymaker Musharnas (2) vs
The Clefairy Coalition (4)
SS NU: [55] ggggd vs Enzo Gorlami [45] - ggggd is better player (enzo is good but pablo is excellent), but enzo has played the tier a bit more (nult). edge to pablo. this should be a great game, though - looking forward to it!
SS NU: Confide
vs tlenit1 - confide won his first game this nupl in ss last week after nasty plotting vs sucker for 8 straight turns before sweeping with thievul, a wild endgame which means that im not super confident bolding him for future games. (a win is a win, though - not taking away from that at all!) tlenit hasnt played yet. even or very slight edge to confide, i guess, dont rly know much about either player.
[edit: apparently confide won vs averardo the week before and i didnt see that, mb]
USUM NU: [35] Davon vs
robjr [65] - bolding the dude that has played the tier more; also seems like a slightly better player, but the experience and comfort with the tier will be the big thing helping robjr here
ORAS NU: [40] Luck O' the Irish vs
soulgazer [60] - Soulgazer is a way more experienced NU player, one of the most established in the tier. the reason this edge isn't bigger is because I saw luck of the irish make some pretty wild plays against rozes, who was also favored in that MU, making me believe that he can pull wins off vs top-tier players. soulgazer is definitely still favored, though.
BW NU: [30] Raichy vs
Chill Shadow [70] - love my friend raichy but ChillShadow is an excellent BW NU player that can get a win vs almost anybody; meta knowledge is super high, skill is super high, probability of him winning this is also super high.
DPP NU:
[60] Heysup vs Sinkyr [40] - heysup if you're reading this sorry for bringing linoone vs you :( :( not that sorry because it won, but still kind of a lame move. in a standard DPP NU game, old gen lower tiers expert Heysup is favored vs pretty much anybody, so i'll give him a solid edge despite both players having identical 3-3 records in this tier.
ADV NU: Raseri
vs Disjunction - i wrote 65-35 disjunction but then saw he's somehow 1-4 in this tier?? i just assumed he won a lot because he's very experienced in adv nu. i dont rly know what to say here so i will bold the vs.
Bo3: [30] quziel vs
Teddeh [70] - this is 60-40 if(when?) Feliburn gets subbed in for Musharnas. Teddeh def has a big edge over Q, though, especially in the old tiers he has played at a high level for a long time. only concern would be that he is sort of CT-able in ORAS, where he is known to lean pretty heavily on the balance squads he likes. he's a better and far more experienced player there, though, and should win this.
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