ADV Sand Veil Test

undisputed · Oct 22, 2020

We will be testing Sand Veil in ADV OU. This post will explain the decision to test Sand Veil, outline the parameters of the test, and offer a place for participants to discuss and advocate for their desired outcome.

I. Why test Sand Veil?

Sand Veil strategies are a relatively recent development in the metagame, and prior to this year, it was very rare to see teams designed with the purpose of abusing Sand Veil effects. Over the past year, it has become increasingly clear that these strategies were both underexplored and underestimated. As it has been in other generations, Sand Veil and its perceived legitimacy in the meta has become a polarizing issue. This test is meant to resolve Sand Veil's future in ADV OU and hopefully lay the issue to rest.

In brief and basic form, this is how Sand Veil works in ADV OU. The two Sand Veil abusers are Cacturne and Gligar. Teams based upon Sand Veil strategies may use one or both these Pokemon. See below where we have included some examples of the most successful Sand Veil teams for test participants and the general Smogon community to review.

Cacturne typically uses Spikes, Leech Seed, Substitute and one of HP Dark or HP Grass. One prominent team (created by Vapicuno and featured in this video) used Cacturne with Focus Punch over Spikes, but Focus Punch is generally not expected. Cacturne has two play patterns to abuse Sand Veil misses. First, it can use Substitute and the Sand Veil miss chance to reliably set up Spikes against slower Pokemon. Second, it can use Substitute and miss chance to set up a Leech Seed loop. This latter play pattern is comparatively more problematic in the council's opinion. If, and when, Cacturne sets up a Substitute, it can be very difficult for its opponent to break the ensuing Leech Seed loop. Slower Pokemon cannot break the loop until Cacturne runs out of Substitute PP because Cacturne will repeatedly click Substitute as Leech Seed restores its HP. Faster Pokemon must successfully hit two moves in a row and have enough power to KO or bring Cacturne to very low health. However, Cacturne need not stay in against faster Pokemon; it can switch as Leech Seed whittles the opposing faster Pokemon’s health, which in turn, limits the ability counter Cacturne the next time.

Gligar typically uses Substitute, Swords Dance, Earthquake, and HP Flying. There has been no prominent team featuring a move set other than this. The play pattern for Gligar is one dimensional. Gligar will begin by clicking Substitute until a move misses. Once a move misses, Gligar will click Swords Dance behind the safety of its Substitute. Then, if Gligar has enough health, it may fish for another miss by clicking Substitute again, or it can try for a sweep with its +2 attack. Gligar at +2 is strong, capable of 2HKOing all common Pokemon besides Zapdos, Aerodactyl, Skarmory, and healthy and defensive Suicune and Swampert. For an in-depth statistical analysis and detailed explanation, please see this post from Vapicuno.

Common team support for Sand Veil teams includes Tyranitar, Magneton, and Paralysis. Tyranitar is necessary because it provides Sandstorm. As the most common and best Pokemon in the tier, there is no real drawback to including Tyranitar. Magneton is most helpful for countering Skarmory, but it provides some utility in other matchups, from trapping Forretress and Metagross to serving as a defensive pivot to enable Cacturne and Gligar. Paralysis is especially helpful for Sand Veil teams. It makes all opposing Pokemon slower, which allows Cacturne and Gligar to spam Substitute without worrying about being outsped. Furthermore, the paralysis chance compounds the odds that the opposing Pokemon will not be able to break the Substitute, either via a miss from Sand Veil or a full paralysis.

a. Council Member Positions

I would vote ban as of this post, but I am open to being persuaded otherwise. Sand Veil is definitely an effective strategy to wins games. Not overpowered, but at least as effective as some other common ADV archetypes. For me, this test and vote ultimately comes down to two considerations. First, I believe Sand Veil is a strong strategy for the lesser player to win more often than they otherwise would. To illustrate with a hypothetical example, say a match would ordinarily be 75-25 odds; I feel like Sand Veil has real power to make that 60-40 odds. I don't have scientific evidence to back up that claim, but it's a feeling I've developed after watching many games and playing with/against Sand Veil. I see a lot of good players with minimal ADV experience pick the strategy for tournaments that incidentally include ADV. This suggests to me that the strategy is relatively easy to use and effective. Our metagames should reward experience and knowledge in the tier, and Sand Veil tends to undermine that principle.

Second, I don't enjoy the in-game experience of Sand Veil as either a player or a spectator. Playing against Sand Veil sucks because it simply comes down to hoping you won't miss while your opponent repeatedly clicks Substitute. At that point it really feels like you have so little control over the game. The loss of agency feels uncompetitive and unfun to me. I also hate watching Sand Veil games as a spectator. At first I thought it was intriguing (and possibly amusing), but now I immediately click to the end of the replay once I see Cacturne or Gligar just to see who won. I always perceive the Sand Veil user as pulling a fast one on their opponent. Whether that feeling is justified may be debated, of course.

I am sympathetic to the anti-ban arguments along the lines of "odds management." Pokemon is a game of odds management, from flinches to crits, and Sand Veil is simply another instance of odds management. Why do we tolerate Serene Grace Jirachi in DPP, yet Sand Veil is over the line? I'm not entirely sure. However, as somewhat of a tiering realist, I believe tiering ultimately may come down to allowing what we like and banning what we don't.

I've been against Sand Veil for a while now. Firstly, it's been optimized enough to be a viable strategy and team archetype to the point where we see it regulary enough by now both on the ladder and in Tournaments. I try to find the right balance between allowing different strategies to exist and developping a stance on them if I believe they're unhealthy. I believe Sand Veil, more often than not, creates games of odds where the result is too reliant on RNG. Even if you try to play and build as optimatilly as possible by relying on fully accurate moves, Sand Veil will remove that option from you with very little opportunity cost (which is unlike items like Brightpowder or Quick Claw, a reason behind their unpopularity). I've seen this debate take place in every gen where Perma Sand exists, and everytime, the arguments have been the same, and I've always found the game to be better and more rewarding for the more skilled players once that option wasn't available anymore.

Ever since the resurgence of Sand Veil strategies I've been reluctant to consider Sand Veil for a possible ban. From my point of view, Gligar required a considerable setup to win games, as not only does it have to remove the opponent's bulky waters but also any opposing Zapdos, Skarmory or Aero before it can get going. To me that seemed like a very reasonable handicap as both offensive and defensive teams have natural placeholder roles that counteract its potency. Cacturne in turn is a Dugtrio prone, mid-range spiker that only ever gets going when considerable para spread has taken place, which again is fair play if you've managed to setup a poke that far into the game. I don't view either of them as broken in the traditional definition of the term, I'd expect both Gligar and Cacturne to score a modest, above average performance over a large number of games. However, when assessing whether to ban this Pokemon in terms of their performance, we should also consider outlier performance rather than simply the mean. I am talking about the ability of these pokes to drastically sway the game in their favor by means of RNG. Yes, I am talking about Sand Veil dodging that Explosion, spinblocking those 3 spikes. While similar game swaying events can happen with any poke (think Blissey freezing 2 pokes), they don't happen with the same frequency and they typically require some form of player interaction. Overall, my opinion is that the randomness factor introduced to the outcome of the game is significantly reinforced by bringing Sand Veil into the game.

Given that we play this tier competitively, these two feel to be at odds with eachother. After taking the input of the ADV community I've come to the conclusion that we should at least suspect test Sand Veil and decide for ourselves; To what degree do we want to subject ourselves to the random elements in order to promote diversity in a metagame? I think this is a perfectly good exercise to answer this.

As others have mentioned, Pokemon is a game filled with RNG based elements. The presence of Sand Veil, and by extension Cacturne and Gligar, certainly introduces aspects that might be considered unhealthy. They are not without their drawbacks, however.

Cacturne is not exactly a plug and play Mon, and it is almost certainly more "splashable" than Gligar. Cacturne would fit into the narrowest of niches on its own merit even if it had no Ability, but Sand Veil obviously makes it even better.

Gligar, on the other hand, would be abjectly terrible without Sand Veil making it even remotely viable in OU. It has poor coverage, a mostly bad defensive typing, and mediocre stats at best. Sand Veil affords it the opportunity to sweep in some endgame scenarios, when it otherwise almost definitely would not get those opportunities.

However, it would be unfair not to acknowledge that most standard, well-built ADV OU teams are to an extent, vulnerable to both Gligar's and Cacturne's "snowball effects."

My personal opinion is that neither of these Mons is worth the opportunity cost required to spend a team slot on them. I consider it reckless teambuilding to rely on luck factors in your gameplan. People will counter by arguing that Sand Veil has no opportunity cost by virtue of being an Ability and not an item or moveslot. Which is technically correct, but it is still no different to me than using inaccurate moves in lieu of accurate ones (Thunder vs. Thunderbolt for example). You are trading reliability (say, an Actual Good Mon) for volatility. Opportunity cost.

I also acknowledge my bias which tends towards inclusivity (I dislike restriction in the teambuilder) and creativity (hot button term). If the playerbase discovers a new strategy that was underexplored in the past, then there's no reason that shouldn't be pushed in the teambuilder. Innovation is a great thing. Heck, people were pining for Spore Breloom's banishment barely 6 months ago. However, I think that the odds will even out over time and people will come to realize that neither Cacturne nor Gligar is worth bringing on a consistent basis. I have used Cacturne enough myself to know that it just plain isn't that great. It's a decent off-kilter pick, but not something I would expect consistent greatness out of.

All that being said, given the general consensus among ADV regulars, it is clear that the community wants at least a suspect test for Sand Veil. I support this decision to give the playerbase what it wants. Wherever you lie on the Sand Veil debate, I think everyone can find common ground in the sentiment that it is nothing if not annoying to play against.

Just a final thought - the line for what we deem to be competitive keeps getting pushed back. If Sand Veil gets banned, then you can bet your bottom dollar that the next version of Sand Veil will have people clamoring for its ban. Just give it enough time.

In competitive pokemon luck will always be an important factor. You can get flinched by rock slide, you can get frozen by Ice Beam, or your pokemon can be CHd drastically changing a game. This is something we have to accept, because it is the nature of the game we play. However, at the end of the day, the better players will be the most consistent and will win the majority of the games, because in spite of RNG potentially being able to change the outcome of a game, and one of the reasons is that the better players are also good at maximizing their odds of winning.

However, there are also some RNG elements that make the luck factor too big, and we get to the point where the winner of a game is decided by who had the better RNG, reducing the strategic element of the game and making the game boring as a player and as a spectator. Historically we have seen many examples of this in many gens: double team, ohko moves, swag play in later plays, etc are strategies that take the game away from the players hands and makes luck decide the winner of a game.

Sand Veil is an ability that boosts the evasion of a pokemon in the sand. In ADV OU, there is only one pokemon that can automatically permanently change the weather, and that's Tyranitar, the most used pokemon in the metagame, which means that sand is very easy to set up permanently and the only way to remove it is using a weather attack, so pokemons with Sand Veil will nearly always have +1 evasion, being able to avoid any attack.
The Sand Veil abusers are objectively not good pokemon, but in spite of that, that evasion boosts have allowed those kind of teams to be succesful in ladder and in tours, but also very inconsistent since a lot of the times they depend on Sand Veil giving them a free turn.
Now the question is: is sand veil in this environment an element that while adding more luck the game adds a greater strategic depth to the game, or is it an element that makes games too reliant to RNG? In my opinion it is the later, because at a very little cost (you lose nothing by running Sand Veil), you give yourself a good chance every turn to avoid any attack.

While Sand Veil is not broken or overpowered, it makes the games much more luck based, something I dislike seeing as a player and as a spectator, especially in a very balanced metagame like ADV OU. Since I believe that Sand Veil doesn't add anything to the metagame and it only adds luck and therefore reduces the strategic element game of the game with little to no cost I support a Sand Veil test and I would support a Sand Veil ban.

(Vapicuno using Sand Veil to top the ADV Ladder)

II. Process Considerations

a. Suspect test is appropriate because there was no substantial opposition to council action and no substantial support for a council-ban.

Last week we made a post stating that we planned to take action regarding Sand Veil in ADV OU. In that post, we solicited feedback on two major discussion points. First, ADV Stakeholders had the opportunity to show substantial opposition to the council taking action, thereby avoiding the council taking any action at all. Perhaps predictably, there was no opposition to the council taking action regarding Sand Veil. Therefore, we will proceed with the test. Second, ADV Stakeholders had the opportunity to show substantial support for a council-ban, or else a suspect test would be the presumptive course of action. There was minimal support for a council-ban, but the response was nowhere near substantial. In fact, the feedback posts seem to suggest that players may have a genuine difference of opinion as to whether Sand Veil should be banned in some capacity. Therefore, we will proceed with a suspect test and not a council-ban.

b. We will not be pursuing a complex ban.

We (the Council) were surprised by the suggestion and moderate support for a complex ban. We posted the preliminary thread under the presumption that if any action were to be taken, it would be to test Sand Veil the ability. Mushi Musha suggested complex banning Sand Veil and the move Substitute. Watermess suggested complex banning Sand Veil and set up moves. Conceivably, we could complex ban Sand Stream and Sand Veil on the same team. We thought these were clever solutions and thank you for the suggestions. However, after discussion, we have decided not to pursue a complex ban for the issue of Sand Veil in ADV OU.

We have three reasons for declining to pursue a complex ban. First, complex bans are "always something we seek to avoid if possible, especially if there is another low impact solution." That means there is an innate presumption in favor of simple bans, and in this case, banning Sand Veil the Ability is the simple, direct option. Moreover, the Council is of the view that banning Sand Veil is a low impact solution. Banning Sand Veil still allows Gligar in the metagame because it has a second ability. And, although banning Sand Veil will ban Cacturne by extension, we are doubtful that Cacturne would have a worthwhile use case if we could somehow preserve it through a complex ban.

Second, we find the approach in other OU tiers persuasive. DPP and BW OU are the closest generations to ADV, and battles in all three generations have consistent Sandstorm. Both DPP and BW OU have elected to ban Sand Veil the ability rather than any specific abuser or a complex ban. Although another generation's approach is not binding, we do not see a compelling reason to distinguish ADV OU from DPP and BW OU. The approach there has proven effective, so we expect it to be effective here too. Additionally, banning Sand Veil promotes a consistency of ruleset across generations, which may make Old Gens marginally more accessible to new players.

Last, a complex ban like the ones described in the preliminary thread would be without tiering precedent. There has never been an Ability + Move complex ban like Sand Veil + Substitute. There was an instance of Ability + Ability in the form of Aldaron's Proposal (banning Drizzle and Swift Swim on the same team), but that approach has generally been criticized as a big mistake that would not be repeated if the issue surfaced today. Pursuing an unprecedented complex ban risks unintended future consequences like re-tests, increases the inherent complexity of the rules, and is likely to be politically unpopular in the community.

c. We will not be addressing Gligar separately.

Before we move on, we want to address the idea of banning Gligar instead, or in addition, to Sand Veil. We will not be pursuing this option. We believe Gligar and Cacturne feature the same fundamental playstyle that forms the basis of arguments for uncompetitive-ness (specifically, using Substitute to fish for a miss, and then setting up a Swords Dance or a Leech Seed loop). Even if Gligar is more potent, we believe that fishing for misses in this manner is either competitive or it isn't, irrespective of the Pokemon performing the strategy. Therefore, we do not believe that Gligar and Cacturne should be treated differently in this process. Additionally, there is no major official ADV tournament between now and Smogon Premier League, which lessens the imperative for a quick council-ban on Gligar, as suggested by ABR.

d. We decline to take up the issue of Bright Powder at this time.

Callous initiated some discussion of Bright Powder as it relates to taking action on Sand Veil. We will not be taking action on Bright Powder at this point in time. While we are sympathetic to the fundamental similarities, there are some differences (like Ability vs. Item, and magnitude of miss chance) that can justify separate treatment. If Bright Powder ever becomes a common strategy and there is a clear call for action from the ADV Community, then we will address it similarly to how we are addressing Sand Veil here. Until then, Bright Powder will remain a useable item choice.

III. Test Parameters

Regarding Sand Veil, voters will have the option to vote between:
1. Ban Sand Veil.
2. Do not ban Sand Veil.

Ban requirement: 60%+ in favor of banning Sand Veil.

The vote will open on November 10, 2020.

The tournament-based qualifications are as follows. For SPL, voters must have played at least six ADV games OR won at least three games. For ADV Cup, we will take the top eight. For Callous Invitational IV, the top 16 finishers qualify. For ADV Circuit Championship 2020, we will take the current top five. Under these requirements, the following players qualify.

SPL: Blightbringer [forum banned], Tamahome, pasy_g [forum banned], Glibert Arenas, CyberOdin, Alexander., z0mog, BKC
ADV Cup: Dizno, dice, thelinearcurve, Fakes, Mana, FMG, undisputed, Tamahome
Callous Invitation IV: thelinearcurve, undisputed, Mana, McMeghan, Hclat, Starmaster, Tamahome, UD, ABR, Astamatitos, M Dragon, PDC, Fear, Golden Sun, roystopror, Soulwind
ADV Circuit Championship 2020: thelinearcurve, undisputed, Djokra, Winterains, Tamahome

Unique voters (27): thelinearcurve, undisputed, Ban Manaphy, McMeghan, Hclat, Starmaster, Tamahome, UD, ABR, Astamatitos, M Dragon, PDC, Fear, Golden Sun, Shortage, Soulwind, BKC, Dizno, FMG, Djokra, Winterains, Gilbert Arenas, CyberOdin, Alexander. z0mog, dice, Fakes

We want to preemptively address the use of Callous Invitational IV as a qualification standard. Callous Invitational is (and has been for the past four years) the biggest and most prestigious ADV event of the year. And, as it pertains to Sand Veil, Callous Invitational is the most recent ADV event which makes the experience of players there uniquely relevant. We do not see a compelling reason not to include Callous Invitational simply because it is not literally hosted on Smogon.com. It is full of players who regularly compete on Smogon and played according to Smogon rules. The decision to use Callous Invitational as a tournament qualification for this vote does not necessarily mean we will use it again in the future, but as the biggest, most prestigious, and most recent ADV OU tournament, we believe using it for this test is merited.

The Council is satisfied with this sample of voters as is, but we still want to offer other players another way to qualify if they wish to participate. Given that there is no major ADV tournament between now and Smogon Premier League, we see no harm is taking a little extra time with this vote.

To qualify via the ladder, players must reach 1500+ ELO and 85% GXE simultaneously. No game cap. Please use the following prefix at the start of your alt: ADVSV. The ladder window will last for two weeks 10/26 - 11/9. Submit requirements to the identification thread any time you fulfill them.

IV. Conclusion

While the ladder qualification is under way, our hope is that participants will use this thread (and accompanying RoA thread) to discuss their position on Sand Veil. Thanks for reading.

Tomahawk · Oct 22, 2020

Letting everyone from the Callous Invitational vote makes no sense, as all these participants were simply handpicked. If you want to set official requirements, it should be excluded (or changed to something like reaching quarterfinals or semifinals or whatever). If you want to include all these players, you might as well do handpicking instead of requirements in the first place: as of right now it is handpicked anyway.

Edit: this is not related to it not being hosted on smogon, I don't personally see a problem with that. However, including all players is just handpicking disguised as requirements.

UD · Oct 22, 2020

Yes, the garbage handpicked players such as McMeghan, starmaster, Astamatitos, ABR, M Dragon, Altina, Cowboy Dan, Fear, and Golden Sun have absolutely zero business taking place in a vote on the tier most of them main.

Please use common sense when posting.

Tomahawk · Oct 22, 2020

UD said:
Yes, the garbage handpicked players such as McMeghan, starmaster, Astamatitos, ABR, M Dragon, Altina, Cowboy Dan, Fear, and Golden Sun have absolutely zero business taking place in a vote on the tier most of them main.

Please use common sense when posting.

That is not at all what I'm saying. I would personally have no problem if these players are all just handpicked as knowledgable players and able to vote. However, if that road is chosen it should be noted as such and not as determined by requirements: the current requirement fulfilled by most players is being handpicked.

Vileman · Oct 22, 2020

UD said:
Yes, the garbage handpicked players such as McMeghan, starmaster, Astamatitos, ABR, M Dragon, Altina, Cowboy Dan, Fear, and Golden Sun have absolutely zero business taking place in a vote on the tier most of them main.

Please use common sense when posting.

When the rby vote on counter came up handpicked players were proposed as the initial voters list, and it was shut down by SS because as a Smogon vote, it had to use objective criteria
Then i'm p sure they didn't let them use PP results to let people vote, despite how good those players might be. Why is this any different?
No one on their right mind would say those players aren't good enough to vote, hell if anything it would make the voter list better, but i think the issue is being transparent about the criteria being used to pick players and how its consequent with smogon policy.

ABR · Oct 22, 2020

Just gonna say that while I’m very glad this test is occurring and appreciate the autovote, Tomahawk raises a fair point. In other tests we don’t allow non Smogon pre requisites so maybe it’s best to remove those.

edit: the below points make sense as well, not sure what the exact solution is but it’s a worthwhile discussion nonetheless

Hogg · Oct 22, 2020

Discussing this now to see if we can find a decent middle-ground.

As Vileman pointed out, objective criteria are an important requirement. Regarding the tournament itself, this isn't quite a direct analogue to the RBY vote and their use of PP results - that vote attempted to use the PP rankings system to determine voters and included participants with absolutely no Smogon participation at all. If there was a recent non-Smogon tournament with significant enough results using relevant rules, I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to allowing it on a case-by-case basis. However, the fact that players in the Callous Invitational are hand-picked is a potential issue because of the objective criteria requirement. (One could argue that being drafted in SPL or WCOP is similarly subjective, but that's why we tend to have additional requirements for games played/won for those tournaments.)

Anyhow, the Adv council has been pretty active in discussing with myself and other tiering staff, and I'm sure we can come to a reasonable solution that meets the objective criteria requirement without being too exclusive.

vapicuno · Oct 22, 2020

With all due respect, in this day and age on Smogon when old gens are getting phased out bit by bit (ADV's gone from WCOP already!), should we not give fair consideration to tournaments hosted off-site where the host put in the time and effort to identify and attract the best players?

Furthermore, if the ADV council has decided that CALLOUS' selection criterion was flawed, they could have chosen to leave that group out or modify their selection to cut some people off, but they didn't, because even those that went 0-2 are good players. Trust their judgment please.

Tomahawk · Oct 22, 2020

vapicuno said:
With all due respect, in this day and age on Smogon when old gens are getting phased out bit by bit (ADV's gone from WCOP already!), should we not give fair consideration to tournaments hosted off-site where the host put in the time and effort to identify and attract the best players?

Furthermore, if the ADV council has decided that CALLOUS' selection criterion was flawed, they could have chosen to leave that group out or modify their selection to cut some people off, but they didn't, because even those that went 0-2 are good players. Trust their judgment please.

Personally I would agree with that. However, if we decide to use this as a selection criterion I think it's fair to just note that the selection process is through manual selection of knowledge players, instead of masking it as some objective requirement.

Edit: I do 100% agree that it being on-site or off-site shouldn't matter and this tour is important.

Kevin Garrett · Oct 22, 2020

I don't think this was a respectful response to Tomahawk. His concern is purely legitimate and he is no way insinuating that the players selected were not worthy of voting. Let's be frank here and get to the heart of the matter, it is a disservice to the process to give people a favored pathway to vote based on reputation. They can qualify for it just as well as anyone else, and their agency in the process improves the level of competition for all of the others choosing to participate.

JabbaTheGriffin · Oct 22, 2020

At the end of the day, it’s 32 of the best ADV players in the game just coming off one of the most competitive ADV tournament ever. If anyone is qualified to have a hand in this decision, it’s them.

I think with these old gen votes we’re letting appearances get in the way of common sense and pragmatism in a way that will likely only serve to either shrink or dilute the voter pool. Considering this is a vote to permanently alter an old metagame, I do not believe that is desirable.

undisputed · Oct 22, 2020

Here are seven compelling reasons to use Callous Invitational as a pre-qualification standard for this suspect test.

1. Any suspect test wants players who (a) are active, (b) care, and (c) have reasonable skill and experience in the metagame. Every player invited to and who participated in Callous Invitational IV exceeds those standards.

2. Recency. Callous Invitational IV is the most proximate important ADV tournament to this test. Sand Veil was used heavily in CI4, discussed extensively as a central issue during the tournament, and required special preparation because it was much more relevant than in SPL or ADV Cup.

3. The Callous Invitational invitations themselves are objective. The tournament is filled with players who have extensive SPL and WCoP experience, successful runs in ADV Cups, ADV ladder success, previous Callous Invitational success, Smogon Tour ADV experience, and a litany of other high level accomplishments in ADV OU. CI4 garnered over $1200 in donations, which is more than any OU tournament ever. People are not donating that kind of money to a tournament with unqualified and nepotistic player selections.

4. The use of Callous Invitational for pre-qualification is objective. Callous is a neutral third party with the incentive to pick the best players for his tournament, not players with a certain viewpoint on Sand Veil. The Callous Invitational is simply a proxy for pre-qualifying active, caring, and reasonably skilled and experienced players.

5. The entire idea of tournament pre-qualification is "handpicking" anyway. Callous selecting players to play in the Invitational is the same as Managers selecting players for SPL. For SPL, we include the games played and won requirement to sift out anyone who had to randomly fill-in but obviously doesn't play or care about ADV. That isn't a problem in Callous Invitational; everyone is good.

6. The goal of the suspect test is to be inclusive without sacrificing player quality. Pre-qualifying Callous Cup participants is extremely inclusive and doesn't sacrifice player quality. These players are exactly the type of players who should have a vote in this process.

7. The ladder qualification exists to include ADV Stakeholders even further. If, for whatever reason, you don't qualify under our expansive and high quality tournament pre-qualification, then please use the ADV Ladder to join us and have your voice heard. The ADV ladder is very active. And what's more, almost all the top players have already pre-qualified, so there is no problem with "gate keeping" as was the concern during the BP test.

Posts like Tomahawk's should be admonished. Smogon forum members with no stake in the tier in question should not be ripping off a three-liner post within five minutes of a thoughtfully designed suspect process post. This thread should be about discussing the merits of Sand Veil in ADV OU, not whether McMeghan, starmaster, Astamatitos, ABR, M Dragon, Altina, Cowboy Dan, Fear, and Golden Sun should be pre-qualified.

Hipmonlee · Oct 22, 2020

I just want to make it clear that the removal of PP results from the RBY vote should definitely not be considered precedent for this. That was far from resolved when the vote went ahead.

Tomahawk · Oct 22, 2020

It feels like I have to defend myself, I'll just clarify what I meant (feels like it has been a bit misunderstood) and end this on my end. I didn't mean to start such an argument but I suppose I should have formulated my post differently.

To clarify: I don't mean at all that any of these players qualified through Callous Cup are not good players, they clearly all are and I think we all will agree that including the best and most knowledgable players in this process is beneficial. I'm not here to disagree on this. The point I was trying to make is that this list of players is selected based on community agreement on the better and more knowledgable players in this tier. Why not do this directly, selecting and inviting these players with a selection (made by the council or whoever is appropriate) instead of adding an extra layer of abstraction and linking it to this tournament (with no results taken into account)? (I know this is not standard for Smogon tiering, but of course for old gens everything is a bit different). (Or alternatively: stick with objective requirements if such is preferred)

Anyways, apologies for creating this argument - undisputed is right in that it would be more helpful to discuss Sand Veil itself in this thread. I trust that the list of players will be representative (as it is now), my note was more of a technical note on the process.

undisputed · Oct 25, 2020

After discussing with Hogg, we will be taking the top 16 from Callous Invitational IV.

The following players are no longer qualified to vote through CI4. They will need to ladder if they want to participate and do not qualify by other means.

Altina, Cowboy Dan, Gorgie, KratosMana, Marcop, Teclis, Zokuru, Zomog, Blightbringer, CyberOdin, Dekzeh, Dice, Eden, Elodin, Fakes, Gacu

power · Oct 26, 2020

undisputed said:
The following players are no longer qualified to vote through CI4. They will need to ladder if they want to participate and do not qualify by other means.

Altina, Cowboy Dan, Gorgie, KratosMana, Marcop, Teclis, Zokuru, Zomog, Blightbringer, CyberOdin, Dekzeh, Dice, Eden, Elodin, Fakes, Gacu

Could you explain why these players need to ladder to qualify and do not qualify by other means? For example, Dice and Fakes are listed in the OP as qualifying via ADV Cup; why does this no longer count?

Hogg · Oct 26, 2020

I believe you're reading this wrong. Not to put words in undisputed's mouth, but he's saying if they want to participate AND do not qualify by other means, they will need to ladder. Therefore, since dice and Fakes qualify by other means, they don't need to worry about that. (The same is true for z0mog, marcop/Gilbert arenas, thelinearcurve and probably others that I'm missing.)

Shurtugal · Oct 26, 2020

In an effort to bring this thread back on topic, I would like to discuss Sand Veil.

On its own, Sand Veil is largely inconsistent--the odds arent in the Veil Player's odds (20% + potential BP), so if you rely on Veil alone, you will oftentimes substitute yourself into the ground, even moves like Meteor Mash can find their way into hitting through veil. Another huge problem: Gligar & Cacturn are pretty terrible Pokemon on their own, not particularly fast or bulky in comparison to the rest of the tier (on-site dex puts Gligar at UU, Cacturn at NU). Because of this, they do not find many opportunities to snowball a victory, especially against offensive teams spammed on ladder, since oftentimes they will be slower than the enemy. Defensive teams that have Roar/Whirlwind are also an issue. Some games it can work, but using it to win over the course of many games (ladder) didnt seem feasible to me when I used ABR's sample team.

However, with Thunder Wave/paralysis support, Sand Veil becomes a totally different beast altogether. Paralysis perfectly compliments Sand Veil: Gligar and Cacturn's mediocre speed tier do not hold them back when paralysis is spread, allowing them to put up the first substitute (and thus begin rolling for veil); Paralysis also adds immobilization to the mix; the opponent could miss or be immobilized, increasing the odds of a successful Substitute going up. Together, Sand Veil becomes consistent, allowing it to easily snowball victories.

When you consider how widespread Thunder Wave is & how easy it is to set up the victory conditions (spread paralysis at start, trap Skarm with Magneton, reveal TTar midgame into Gligar sweep), you have a formula that can cheese/win against pretty much any matchup. When I experimented on the ladder, I had no trouble beating even teams with Dugtrio/Kingdra.

When I used Sand Veil, it was easy to win majority of games I came across, as it has pretty much no matchup issues, and with paralysis it is ridiculously easy to snowball with Gligar. Games lost seemed to be fluke times the strategy didnt work, or games where the enemy team had numerous of answers to Veil ahead of time

What really sucks is there is a distinct lack of skillful interaction between the Veil player and their opponent: you set up the paralysis and sand, and you just roll the dice until you win. It feels largely similar to Swagger & Thunder Wave spam from Gen5, not as strong but the same principle/concept.

As I mentioned earlier: Gligar & Cacturn are not terrific Pokemon on their own either. Their strength comes entirely from the broken Sand Veil.

TLDR:

1.) Sand Veil is easy to support in the teambuilder. Thunder Wave is on a lot of Pokemon, and its pretty easy to spread around; meanwhile, there are not many ways to prevent paralysis from spreading.

2.) It takes no skill from the veil player to setup their victory condition. The only "drawback" is being locked into Tyranitar, who is one of the most versatile and strongest Pokemon in the tier.

3. Limited counterplay, either bring an offensive team that can handle paralysis, or to bring a slow team that has ww/roar support that isnt on Skarm (swamp/zapdos/cune/raikou). Both of these are not easy to fit on teams and are played at a disadvantage to Veils opponent.

Phasers needs to be healthy entire game, and oftentimes the Pokemon that have to carry it (Swampert, Zapdos, Suicune) also need to be able to tank/deal with other Pokemon outside of Gligar/Cacturn, so it's pretty easy to wear them down before revealing the Sand Veil sweep.

Offensive teams need to keep the paralysis answer around, and usually the "paralysis answer" is just a Lum Berry or Natural Cure Pokemon, so it's pretty easy to target them.

Basically, while Sand Veil is underwhelming on its own, it becomes a broken snowball when paralysis is spread around. It's easy to setup and hard to stop, has limited counter play and no skillful interactions: ban Sand Veil.

NOTE: I edited a few things to make sure I sound clear, very sorry, it's been a long time since I made a post.

vapicuno · Nov 8, 2020

I wanted to write this before people started voting, and I'm running out of time, so I'll keep this short. Our decisions may be guided by how we feel, healthy/unhealthy incentives, arguments about metagame adaption, spectator experiences, and that is totally justifiable. But for those who would like to make decisions based on data, I hope this may inform you.

I have written two purely theoretical analyses of Sand Veil in RoA: a mathematical one here, and one addressing more intuitive issues here. In this post, I want to figure out if the replays above reflect my theoretical ruminations. I have used replays listed above, and added two more McMeghan vs Star (CI4), and Gacu vs Shortage (PPL).

To explain some terminology:
Quality of game: How competitive the game is. I don't want conclusions to be skewed by the fact that a win/loss by a Sand Veil team might not have been because the Sand Veil team was bad, but a player misplayed / was outplayed thoroughly.
Misses Pivotal: The basic question - are misses due to Sand Veil pivotal to the outcome of the game? My subjective opinion.
Excess Misses Pivotal: To address the point that misses should be expected given a large number of turns, this column is my subjective opinion on whether an additional miss than the expected ~20% or lack of miss simply due to variance determined the outcome of a game. This is in response to those who have asked if we are simply being lazy in probability management, or is the variance introduced by Sand Veil really something large and uncontrolled?
Timing of Misses Pivotal: Sometimes, the variance comes not in the number of misses, but the timing of the misses. This is my opinion on whether the timing of the misses determined the outcome of the game.
Fraction of Miss: Misses / (Misses + Hits)
Excess Fraction: The deviation of the fraction of misses in the battle from the expected 20%.

A few observations:
1. Most of the time, the probability of missing is larger than 20%. This happens because in a sequence of 5 turns, you will expect to miss once, but the miss can happen before the 5th turn. Once you ride on that momentum, you don't need further misses to gain a clear advantage.
2. There are a total of 13 good quality games that have been analyzed.
3. The number of good quality games that have their decisions determined from Sand Veil misses are 7-8 out of 13, or about 55-60%.
4. The number of good quality games that have their decisions determined from excess Sand Veil misses or the timing of the misses are 4-5 out of 13, or about 30-40%.

Edit: I have received some criticism that the sample size of 13 is small. I personally don't think so. To put it simply, if I had a black box that gave you 7 positive results out of 13 tries once, would you plausibly believe that the black box is simply a coin? For a Bernoulli variable, the standard error for probability p and N=13 trials is sqrt(p(1-p)/(N-1)) = 14% for p=4.5/13 and 7.5/13. This is the margin of error for an estimate of the probability. If p = 4.5/13 = 34%, then +/- 14% yields 20-48% odds. This means the sample size is large enough for me to believe that in the current state of the metagame, coinflips are expected to happen about 20-50% of the time in a competitive game.

Footnotes:
1. When an inaccurate move with around 80% odds like Hydro Pump or Toxic has been used against a Sand Veil Pokemon, I treat it as 0.5 of a miss.

Players	Quality of game	Good matchup	Outcome	Misses Pivotal	Excess Misses Pivotal	Timing of Misses Pivotal	Misses	Hits	Fraction of Miss	Excess Fraction	Comments
BlazingDark vs ABR	Questionable - Gligar left in to get OHKOed		?
ABR vs M Dragon	Good	No	W	Y	?	Y	3	6	0.33	0.13	Prime example of Cacturne Gligar overloading on checks. If T7 hit, MD does not cede momentum to allow continued Spiking. Opportunity for Pursuit Tar mind games.
ABR vs Typhlito	Questionable - Toxic on Cac Sub T4, team lacks hovering mon		W	N							28% by loom with no direct attacks, Gligar was paralyzed
ABR vs Kiichikos	Questionable - Quick Claw Cloyster		L	N
ABR vs Pohjis	Questionable - Zap into Ttar t6	Yes	W	N (prob)			4	7	0.36	0.16	Extra Spikes turns allowed ABR to preserve Lax/Pert better, but Mag's presence meant either pert or lax were going down, allowing Gligar sweep or Blissey to wall. If lax went down, we might have a different and uncertain game. If Megahorn hit, ABR was in a winning position as long as he kept Metagross alive.
tamahome vs thelinearcurve	Good	=	W	N	N	N	0	2	0.00	-0.20
ABR vs rozes	Questionable - Breloom got para'd T5		W	N			2	4	0.33	0.13	One miss caused extra Spike; other miss while sacrificing Cacturne would have resulted in won stall fest.
ABR vs Shortage	Good	=	W	Y	Y	Y	2	4	0.33	0.13
Kratosmana vs Eden	?	=	W	?	N	N	2	1	0.67	0.47	Not clear if switching rachi milo back and forth was the optimal play, freeze was to be expected - perhaps rachi didn't have an attack. Highly likely rachi cleans even if Gligar doesn't clean
Kratosmana vs Eden	Good	Mirror	K-W	Y	Y	Y	1.5	3	0.33	0.13
Above from Eden's perspective			E-L				1	3	0.25	0.05	Hydro Pump miss on Gligar, plus not getting haxfishing opportunities for a Gligar reverse sweep cost the game
elodin vs gorgie	Good	Yes	W	N	N	N	1	5.5	0.15	-0.05
Soulwind vs z0mog	Good	=	W	?	?	?	6	7	0.46	0.26	Misses allowed 2 spikes + initiating leech sequence on Metagross which could otherwise be a threat with Soulwind's pert gone. But Soulwind's good playing denying Snorlax from doing any damage, then twaving Metagross with Blissey for a Gligar endgame could also have worked well.
McMeghan vs star	Good	Yes	W	?	N	N	1	0	1.00	0.80	The miss did not end up affecting the game, but affected star's move choice. Star was encouraged to blow up Claydol to prevent Cacturne from causing any damage. Had Claydol been saved, it could be used to deal with Donphan.
rozes vs Conflict	Good	No	L	N (prob)			0	6	0.00	-0.20	Likely that Conflict would win given that even if Cacturne got some misses, Rain Dance Zapdos could force Cacturne out and Starmie can then spin. Aggressive double switches back to Cacturne to prevent Starmie from spinning is likely to be neutered by Thunder Wave.
Fakes vs M Dragon	Good	Yes	W	N (prob)			4	2	0.67	0.47	Key winning move was Mag trapping Forre. Milotic was probably going to win anyway once Forretress was Mag'd
star vs Tricking	Questionable - Toxic on Cac Sub T8	Yes	W	N	N	N					Key winning move was Mag trapping Forre.
malekith vs tamahome	Good	No	W	N	N	N	0	3	0.00	-0.20
Excal vs Zokuru	Good	=	W	Y	N (prob)	Y	2	11	0.15	-0.05	Although the last Ice Beam miss determined the game, Excal had fished for Gligar many times earlier and had any of those succeeded, Excal would have been in a winning position.
TDK vs TonyFlygon	Good	=	W	Y	N (prob)	N	3	7	0.30	0.10	Just like McMeghan vs star, Sand Veil affected Tony's move choice. Tony was encouraged to blow up Snorlax and Metagross to get additional odds with Cacturne. I'm not sure if those was the best choice, but sending Gyarados in to break the chain would likely require 2 DDs, taking Leech and one attack, with a possible mindgame on Taunt. Gyarados was in a losing position, but perhaps the game could have been salvaged by Metagross/Snorlax being alive.
Gacu vs Shortage	Good but misplayed towards end	Yes	W	Y	Y	N	5.5	11	0.33	0.13	Gacu could have Leech'd Blissey to get into a better winning position, but Gligar lucked out in the end

undisputed · Nov 8, 2020

The ladder window is nearing a close. Only about 24 hours left. We will post the vote thread soon after.

The Ruins of Alph thread will double as the voter identification thread since people are already using it that way.

ADV Sand Veil Test

undisputed

Tomahawk

UD

BeerLover

Tomahawk

Vileman

Actually a Nice Fella

ABR

Hogg

grubbing in the ashes

vapicuno

你的价值比自己想象中的所有还要低。我却早已解脱，享受幸福

Tomahawk

Kevin Garrett

is a competitor

JabbaTheGriffin

Stormblessed

undisputed

Hipmonlee

Have a nice day

Tomahawk

undisputed

power

uh-oh, the game in trouble

Hogg

grubbing in the ashes

Shurtugal

The Enterpriser.

vapicuno

你的价值比自己想象中的所有还要低。我却早已解脱，享受幸福

undisputed

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