That three Durant dropped down on Giannis' face was the dagger. And KD always does that, he chooses the best opposite player to play 1-on-1 and kills your soul dropping a bunch of buckets in yo face. You know it's over when he does that.
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2020-21 NBA Season
- Thread starter Kanburi
- Start date
(1) Philadelpha Sixers versus (5) Atlanta Hawks
This series significantly hinges on the injury of Joel Embiid, the potential MVP. So it's almost like trying to think about two scenarios. I don't know whether to trust Doc's optimism or not, but I will move forward to assume Embiid at least returns halfway through the series.
Philadelphia without Embiid this season is 10-11 and they surrendered their most points since April 24th in Game 5 against Washington. If Doc can figure out a defensive scheme against Atlanta that can tread water, they stand a much better chance.
Philadelphia I feel are decently equipped as a roster to at least attempt this. Atlanta has a heliocentric offense centered around Trae Young, and when Young is bothered and contained, Atlanta will inevitable struggle. A combination of Green, Simmons, Maxey, and Hill ain't all that bad though I could be significantly underrate Young here. I would imagine though that Doc would at least try many ball denials or traps to force others to make decisions.
Meanwhile, on the other end, attacking Young on the defensive end is key too, and matchup hunting for Young should at least be done all series. How Young and Atlanta handles the above schemes, Embiid or not, will determine Atlanta's overall effectiveness.
Atlanta has a very talented ball club, so they of course could prove effective as they have Hunter and even Galli as decent isolation and post scorers; it *might* be enough without Embiid but perhaps not for a healthy Philly team.
I also think Seth Curry, Tobias, and Simmons really need to step up generally speaking. If Seth is capable of scoring 34 as he did in Game 5 against Washington, he should shoot more than anybody on that team not named Embiid and Harris. How Simmons, Tobias and Seth can take advantage of Young or any other mismatch is key as well.
Without Embiid, your only other center is Howard who let's face it, Capella is his younger superior. If there's an advantage for Atlanta without Embiid or even a limited one, it's the extremely physical and capable Capela. I actually anticipated a lot of technical fouls and roughhousing among this three. Howard and Capela have beef in Houston.
I truly don't think Atlanta has been tested yet. Even when facing New York... Who had the worst offense of the playoffs, do you really expect an Atlanta team ranked 14th in defensive efficiency to do that? No. So, they are facing a *capable* roster and coach. They *will* actually be tested in this series, and I still need them to prove to me they can run an offense with Young sitting, attacked, and constantly denied. Atlanta can make serious noise with Embiid's health ambiguity but I still feel Philly has the tools to win. Howard/Capela matchup is my only hesitation in picking them.
I failed to bring up Ben Simmons whose play is most important here. I guess I just assumed he'd find a way but that's questionable really.
He's going to get fouled a lot and on offense he has to make himself useful in the halfcourt after so many years. It's a make or break for his future in this series and it'll likely be the inflection point for both Trae Young and him.
*Note: the below was made yesterday before Bucks/Nets Game 1.
(3) Milwaukee Bucks versus (2) Brooklyn Nets
The most hyped matchup of the second round aka the real NBA Finals. Personally, I believe this matchup has a lot to do with who ends up winning it all as this will basically decide who at least ends up in the finals. Sadly, we had to have it in the second round.
I flip-flop back and forth with this series. It has very high variability. There are a ton of lineups and approaches both coaches can do. I've also never seen Nash coach in a bind. We know Budenholzer is hard to trust around adjustments. Will Nash dust off Jordan to keep Giannis from dominating the paint? Will Budenholzer put Holiday on Harden most minutes? I don't know what lineups or defensive matchups are going to be decided on but I'll try to to think about the intangibles as much as possible.
The #1 thing on my mind with this series is what Budenholzer decides with Lopez. Brooklyn's offense is setup to matchup hunt and pick apart the worst defender in the worst way. Lopez is a drop coverage big, so Durant, Harden, and Irving can all get easy mid range shots so as long as Lopez is on the floor, and if you decide to bring an extra defender, that's not ideal either because Brooklyn is one of the best three-point shooting teams in percentage.
So.. Lopez shouldn't play in my eyes. But does Budenholzer know? How long will he take to adjust and instead go small? Or can Lopez take advantage with his rebounding and size against the weaker interior of Brooklyn? I mean, that could also totally happen.
Speaking of weaker interior, that's what makes Giannis scary here. Him dominating the paint and being difficult to stop is the key for a Milwaukee win especially if Nash elects to go small which he may. Both Giannis and Lopez could try to overwhelm Brooklyn inside.
Perimeter wise, my thinking is that Holiday will mostly be on Harden since he's been Brooklyn's point of attack and facilitator. It could force Brooklyn to operate from Kyrie or Durant more often which you'd take your chances with a less familiar playmaker on the team. Middleton/Tucker will probably mostly be on Durant with Giannis being the roamer. This actually makes the Milwaukee's guys all-around big, athletic, and versatile. Brooklyn's true test comes in this series because no one I feel is more suited to guard them than Milwaukee.
I don't know how the perimeter will play out, but it is pretty significant that Milwaukee can switch 1-4 for the most part and be okay, while scoring on the other end. We can't quite say the same for Brooklyn. Basically the question is, whose big three is more cohesive? Brooklyn has the offensive talent and Milwaukee has depth/versatility. The loss of DiVincenzo is huge for Milwaukee in the sense that it means more minutes for players who will get more time through lineups we've seen less of. It makes the series even harder to think about.
I think Milwaukee is your choice if you are a believer of systems, schemes and cohesion. They certainly have that advantage over a team whose big three literally only had single digit games together. They have cohesive two-way players best equipped to take on offensive ballhandlers and talent, and a proven defense.
Brooklyn is your choice if you think the offensive talent will be too much, or if you feel Milwaukee still lacks something. It's harder to get a read on Brooklyn from their first round series, but they basically matchup hunt. This is where people like Lopez and Forbes make me hesitant.
My head says Milwaukee but my gut feels Brooklyn. Lopez just makes this series hard. Even if Budenholzer sits Lopez and Giannis averages 30 plus, Brooklyn could *still win the series* simply if they shoot well enough.
Milwaukee has a tall order and I slightly favor Brooklyn only because I don't trust Budenholzer to find the right small lineups to get out there quick enough.
Philadelphia without Embiid this season is 10-11 and they surrendered their most points since April 24th in Game 5 against Washington. If Doc can figure out a defensive scheme against Atlanta that can tread water, they stand a much better chance.
Philadelphia I feel are decently equipped as a roster to at least attempt this. Atlanta has a heliocentric offense centered around Trae Young, and when Young is bothered and contained, Atlanta will inevitable struggle. A combination of Green, Simmons, Maxey, and Hill ain't all that bad though I could be significantly underrate Young here. I would imagine though that Doc would at least try many ball denials or traps to force others to make decisions.
Meanwhile, on the other end, attacking Young on the defensive end is key too, and matchup hunting for Young should at least be done all series. How Young and Atlanta handles the above schemes, Embiid or not, will determine Atlanta's overall effectiveness.
Atlanta has a very talented ball club, so they of course could prove effective as they have Hunter and even Galli as decent isolation and post scorers; it *might* be enough without Embiid but perhaps not for a healthy Philly team.
I also think Seth Curry, Tobias, and Simmons really need to step up generally speaking. If Seth is capable of scoring 34 as he did in Game 5 against Washington, he should shoot more than anybody on that team not named Embiid and Harris. How Simmons, Tobias and Seth can take advantage of Young or any other mismatch is key as well.
Without Embiid, your only other center is Howard who let's face it, Capella is his younger superior. If there's an advantage for Atlanta without Embiid or even a limited one, it's the extremely physical and capable Capela. I actually anticipated a lot of technical fouls and roughhousing among this three. Howard and Capela have beef in Houston.
I truly don't think Atlanta has been tested yet. Even when facing New York... Who had the worst offense of the playoffs, do you really expect an Atlanta team ranked 14th in defensive efficiency to do that? No. So, they are facing a *capable* roster and coach. They *will* actually be tested in this series, and I still need them to prove to me they can run an offense with Young sitting, attacked, and constantly denied. Atlanta can make serious noise with Embiid's health ambiguity but I still feel Philly has the tools to win. Howard/Capela matchup is my only hesitation in picking them.
I failed to bring up Ben Simmons whose play is most important here. I guess I just assumed he'd find a way but that's questionable really.
He's going to get fouled a lot and on offense he has to make himself useful in the halfcourt after so many years. It's a make or break for his future in this series and it'll likely be the inflection point for both Trae Young and him.
*Note: the below was made yesterday before Bucks/Nets Game 1.
(3) Milwaukee Bucks versus (2) Brooklyn Nets
The most hyped matchup of the second round aka the real NBA Finals. Personally, I believe this matchup has a lot to do with who ends up winning it all as this will basically decide who at least ends up in the finals. Sadly, we had to have it in the second round.
I flip-flop back and forth with this series. It has very high variability. There are a ton of lineups and approaches both coaches can do. I've also never seen Nash coach in a bind. We know Budenholzer is hard to trust around adjustments. Will Nash dust off Jordan to keep Giannis from dominating the paint? Will Budenholzer put Holiday on Harden most minutes? I don't know what lineups or defensive matchups are going to be decided on but I'll try to to think about the intangibles as much as possible.
The #1 thing on my mind with this series is what Budenholzer decides with Lopez. Brooklyn's offense is setup to matchup hunt and pick apart the worst defender in the worst way. Lopez is a drop coverage big, so Durant, Harden, and Irving can all get easy mid range shots so as long as Lopez is on the floor, and if you decide to bring an extra defender, that's not ideal either because Brooklyn is one of the best three-point shooting teams in percentage.
So.. Lopez shouldn't play in my eyes. But does Budenholzer know? How long will he take to adjust and instead go small? Or can Lopez take advantage with his rebounding and size against the weaker interior of Brooklyn? I mean, that could also totally happen.
Speaking of weaker interior, that's what makes Giannis scary here. Him dominating the paint and being difficult to stop is the key for a Milwaukee win especially if Nash elects to go small which he may. Both Giannis and Lopez could try to overwhelm Brooklyn inside.
Perimeter wise, my thinking is that Holiday will mostly be on Harden since he's been Brooklyn's point of attack and facilitator. It could force Brooklyn to operate from Kyrie or Durant more often which you'd take your chances with a less familiar playmaker on the team. Middleton/Tucker will probably mostly be on Durant with Giannis being the roamer. This actually makes the Milwaukee's guys all-around big, athletic, and versatile. Brooklyn's true test comes in this series because no one I feel is more suited to guard them than Milwaukee.
I don't know how the perimeter will play out, but it is pretty significant that Milwaukee can switch 1-4 for the most part and be okay, while scoring on the other end. We can't quite say the same for Brooklyn. Basically the question is, whose big three is more cohesive? Brooklyn has the offensive talent and Milwaukee has depth/versatility. The loss of DiVincenzo is huge for Milwaukee in the sense that it means more minutes for players who will get more time through lineups we've seen less of. It makes the series even harder to think about.
I think Milwaukee is your choice if you are a believer of systems, schemes and cohesion. They certainly have that advantage over a team whose big three literally only had single digit games together. They have cohesive two-way players best equipped to take on offensive ballhandlers and talent, and a proven defense.
Brooklyn is your choice if you think the offensive talent will be too much, or if you feel Milwaukee still lacks something. It's harder to get a read on Brooklyn from their first round series, but they basically matchup hunt. This is where people like Lopez and Forbes make me hesitant.
My head says Milwaukee but my gut feels Brooklyn. Lopez just makes this series hard. Even if Budenholzer sits Lopez and Giannis averages 30 plus, Brooklyn could *still win the series* simply if they shoot well enough.
Milwaukee has a tall order and I slightly favor Brooklyn only because I don't trust Budenholzer to find the right small lineups to get out there quick enough.
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(3) Denver Nuggets versus (2) Phoenix Suns
This match-up would be even more fun to watch if Murray was healthy. In fact, I'd confidently make Denver the winner of the West fully healthy, but alas.
Denver enters the 2nd round facing another thin front court. I’d actually argue Ayton historically defensively is less impressive than Nurkic, so it would make sense if Jokic had an even better series this time around. Ayton’s defense on Jokic is going to end up being one of the deciding factors in who wins and how long it goes. Understand that every series Jokic has been in against ONE legit center, he's won it for this reason.
The problem is that Ayton is a foul prone center, and when fouls on your only legit center rack up, you end up becoming Portland and getting slaughtered throughout the whole series offensively. Monty Williams *must* come up with a scheme with Ayton on and off the court to at least withstanding Jokic. If I am Phoenix, I am extremely nervous about this match-up and it’s making me lose my sleep. The more minutes Ayton can match being on Jokic and less on the bench due to fouls, the better Phoenix's chances. Jokic has proven to be extremely adept at drawing fouls, so Ayton must play more smart than physical.
What Phoenix can hang their hat on however is the fact that they have capable wing guys defensively all around the roster unlike Portland. Those wings can disrupt passing lanes and contest more shots, so maybe that’s enough to offset whatever Ayton gives up to Jokic be it fouls or points. Those same wing guys also give Phoenix an option against Porter Jr. who is a major wildcard going into the series for Denver. Crowder, Bridges, and Johnson are more than enough guys to play Porter Jr. single coverage in my opinion.
The backcourt is where Phoenix will make its case for the conference finals. You can only hope Paul is healthy and that Booker wouldn’t have to try alone, because Denver actually has a fantastic defensive backcourt especially if Dozier and Barton get any playing time in the series. It’ll be interesting to see what Phoenix’s backcourt stars do with Jokic defensively. This will be more predicated on Morris and the ability of injured guys like Dozier and Barton to prove their defensive mettle. How Denver’s guards play on both ends and complement Jokic’s match-up advantage will go along way.
One also has to wonder how Gordon on Booker ends up. Gordon didn't affect Lillard all too much, but made McCollum struggle through many stretches with his length. Booker's stylistic shot making is a bit closer to McCollum than it is Lillard. Booker is more of a midrange guy. If Gordon and one other Denver guard limits Booker, and Paul's shoulder is still an issue, this could be Phoenix's series to lose.
Ultimately, I think the choice in this series comes down to how does one feel about the gap between Ayton and say, Nurkic in defending Jokic, and the ability of Booker and Paul to score against Denver’s overall defense. The two teams are actually tied in offensive rating for the regular season, but their series against Portland makes it clear Denver is not where they need to be defensively. Denver can certainly win this series if they simply have a consistent 2nd and 3rd guy play well for a couple of games.
It's a coin flip, and I only favor Phoenix by the slightest of margins. If Barton and Dozier return healthy, I'd probably go Denver in a long series. Otherwise, Phoenix carries more intangibles in Paul, home court, and being a team at least good offensively *and* defensively. They lose if they Ayton struggles defensively *and* Denver's guards and Gordon manage to affect an injured Paul and Booker, but if they can get at least only one of those things to happen, I'd take my chances with Phoenix.
Denver enters the 2nd round facing another thin front court. I’d actually argue Ayton historically defensively is less impressive than Nurkic, so it would make sense if Jokic had an even better series this time around. Ayton’s defense on Jokic is going to end up being one of the deciding factors in who wins and how long it goes. Understand that every series Jokic has been in against ONE legit center, he's won it for this reason.
The problem is that Ayton is a foul prone center, and when fouls on your only legit center rack up, you end up becoming Portland and getting slaughtered throughout the whole series offensively. Monty Williams *must* come up with a scheme with Ayton on and off the court to at least withstanding Jokic. If I am Phoenix, I am extremely nervous about this match-up and it’s making me lose my sleep. The more minutes Ayton can match being on Jokic and less on the bench due to fouls, the better Phoenix's chances. Jokic has proven to be extremely adept at drawing fouls, so Ayton must play more smart than physical.
What Phoenix can hang their hat on however is the fact that they have capable wing guys defensively all around the roster unlike Portland. Those wings can disrupt passing lanes and contest more shots, so maybe that’s enough to offset whatever Ayton gives up to Jokic be it fouls or points. Those same wing guys also give Phoenix an option against Porter Jr. who is a major wildcard going into the series for Denver. Crowder, Bridges, and Johnson are more than enough guys to play Porter Jr. single coverage in my opinion.
The backcourt is where Phoenix will make its case for the conference finals. You can only hope Paul is healthy and that Booker wouldn’t have to try alone, because Denver actually has a fantastic defensive backcourt especially if Dozier and Barton get any playing time in the series. It’ll be interesting to see what Phoenix’s backcourt stars do with Jokic defensively. This will be more predicated on Morris and the ability of injured guys like Dozier and Barton to prove their defensive mettle. How Denver’s guards play on both ends and complement Jokic’s match-up advantage will go along way.
One also has to wonder how Gordon on Booker ends up. Gordon didn't affect Lillard all too much, but made McCollum struggle through many stretches with his length. Booker's stylistic shot making is a bit closer to McCollum than it is Lillard. Booker is more of a midrange guy. If Gordon and one other Denver guard limits Booker, and Paul's shoulder is still an issue, this could be Phoenix's series to lose.
Ultimately, I think the choice in this series comes down to how does one feel about the gap between Ayton and say, Nurkic in defending Jokic, and the ability of Booker and Paul to score against Denver’s overall defense. The two teams are actually tied in offensive rating for the regular season, but their series against Portland makes it clear Denver is not where they need to be defensively. Denver can certainly win this series if they simply have a consistent 2nd and 3rd guy play well for a couple of games.
It's a coin flip, and I only favor Phoenix by the slightest of margins. If Barton and Dozier return healthy, I'd probably go Denver in a long series. Otherwise, Phoenix carries more intangibles in Paul, home court, and being a team at least good offensively *and* defensively. They lose if they Ayton struggles defensively *and* Denver's guards and Gordon manage to affect an injured Paul and Booker, but if they can get at least only one of those things to happen, I'd take my chances with Phoenix.
Kevin Durant is a force of Nature, period
Utah Jazz versus (4) Los Angeles Clippers
I was kinda hoping for this match-up, because I definitely wouldn’t predict Dallas to get through Utah, but Los Angeles certainly could.
Los Angeles was kinda made to face this team. Utah is among the best at guarding the paint while Los Angeles is among the least to score there. Utah excels when they’re racking up assists and not subjecting themselves to isolation while Los Angeles when they go small and switch everything encourage isolation plays...when they only go small that is. That's only when a switching defense by them will make sense. No telling when Lue will sit Zubac but he may start the series at least to see how he matches up with Gobert. If Zubac proves he can stay on the floor against Gobert and not get torched? LA in five.
So, in a sense, we know Utah’s defense is going to happily give Leonard and George those shots. If Lue eventually decides to go small (which I’m almost certain he will at this point) and switch everything, Los Angeles will happily watch Mitchell, Conley, Ingles, and Gobert try to fight mismatches. Is that a good thing or a recipe for disaster? That’s exactly how Utah lost to Houston a few years ago. Paul put Gobert in a blender constantly in the mid-range, and Gobert could not offensively punish Capela. Mitchell and Ingles struggled to score against a great switching defense.
So I see this series as an indicator of how much Gobert has grown. Zubac ain’t it for this, and considering the momentum from the last round, they may opt to go small and tell themselves Gobert is not that much of an offensive threat to outscore themselves in the mid-range.
And if that’s the case, Los Angeles needs to be prepared for Utah’s scheme in shooting open threes. In fact, what will decide most games and this entire series is who can net the most threes. Whose scheme do you trust more to hit consistent shots? Both teams have reasons to, both teams have stellar wing play, and both teams have streaky shooters. Mitchell will be easier to contain than Doncic and that’s no shade at Mitchell; Doncic was strong, smart, big and controlled the game in a way that even 5 guys of the same height struggled to do. We’ve seen Mitchell struggle with length. He’s a great shooter, but a streaky shooter who’s six inches shorter and isn’t as threatening at passing. Beverly should actually be considered here again unlike the first round.
I favor Los Angeles simply because it’s a team geared to bypass Utah’s strengths and aim for their weaknesses, which is star powered offenses in the midrange. Utah can combat with Rudy, but I gotta see it to believe it. Rudy’s offensive game is something I can imagine a coach taking their chances on. Additionally, Mitchell is no Doncic. Conley could be a potential wildcard but last I read, he had a mild right hamstring strain.
It’ll also be nice to see Ingles/Paul again in a playoff series. Fireworks are certainly imminent here on the perimeter. The talent on both teams can’t be denied, but another strength I can’t deny is that Utah certainly has more capable guys and hot shooting than Los Angeles. I wonder if Lue will give Beverly serious time in this series considering he's one of the most rested and through the regular season, gave Mitchell fits.
If Utah wants to win this series, they must find a way to consistently get more threes than Los Angeles. Gobert must punish them. Mitchell, Clarkson, Conley, and Ingles either must be successful against a switching defense or they must get out in transition enough (they are literally last in forcing turnovers) to get easy threes going against the set Los Angeles defense. Los Angeles prefers half-court sets that give them a good shot based on Leonard and George in the midrange. So Utah overall really needs a speedy, decisive offense.
As I said before, Los Angeles seems completely geared to beat Utah’s offensive and defensive system to the T, and I favor them simply because on paper as a team, they have to make the least changes to win at this point. There’s also an argument to be made for this potentially getting better through their first round series; I mean, we’ve seen it before with a couple of teams like the 2011 Dallas Mavericks or 2008 Boston Celtics. I’m not saying Los Angeles isn’t a Jekyll/Hyde team; I’m saying it’s an intangible, and that they should still be considered one of the best teams out west just based on star power and history.
I was kinda hoping for this match-up, because I definitely wouldn’t predict Dallas to get through Utah, but Los Angeles certainly could.
Los Angeles was kinda made to face this team. Utah is among the best at guarding the paint while Los Angeles is among the least to score there. Utah excels when they’re racking up assists and not subjecting themselves to isolation while Los Angeles when they go small and switch everything encourage isolation plays...when they only go small that is. That's only when a switching defense by them will make sense. No telling when Lue will sit Zubac but he may start the series at least to see how he matches up with Gobert. If Zubac proves he can stay on the floor against Gobert and not get torched? LA in five.
So, in a sense, we know Utah’s defense is going to happily give Leonard and George those shots. If Lue eventually decides to go small (which I’m almost certain he will at this point) and switch everything, Los Angeles will happily watch Mitchell, Conley, Ingles, and Gobert try to fight mismatches. Is that a good thing or a recipe for disaster? That’s exactly how Utah lost to Houston a few years ago. Paul put Gobert in a blender constantly in the mid-range, and Gobert could not offensively punish Capela. Mitchell and Ingles struggled to score against a great switching defense.
So I see this series as an indicator of how much Gobert has grown. Zubac ain’t it for this, and considering the momentum from the last round, they may opt to go small and tell themselves Gobert is not that much of an offensive threat to outscore themselves in the mid-range.
And if that’s the case, Los Angeles needs to be prepared for Utah’s scheme in shooting open threes. In fact, what will decide most games and this entire series is who can net the most threes. Whose scheme do you trust more to hit consistent shots? Both teams have reasons to, both teams have stellar wing play, and both teams have streaky shooters. Mitchell will be easier to contain than Doncic and that’s no shade at Mitchell; Doncic was strong, smart, big and controlled the game in a way that even 5 guys of the same height struggled to do. We’ve seen Mitchell struggle with length. He’s a great shooter, but a streaky shooter who’s six inches shorter and isn’t as threatening at passing. Beverly should actually be considered here again unlike the first round.
I favor Los Angeles simply because it’s a team geared to bypass Utah’s strengths and aim for their weaknesses, which is star powered offenses in the midrange. Utah can combat with Rudy, but I gotta see it to believe it. Rudy’s offensive game is something I can imagine a coach taking their chances on. Additionally, Mitchell is no Doncic. Conley could be a potential wildcard but last I read, he had a mild right hamstring strain.
It’ll also be nice to see Ingles/Paul again in a playoff series. Fireworks are certainly imminent here on the perimeter. The talent on both teams can’t be denied, but another strength I can’t deny is that Utah certainly has more capable guys and hot shooting than Los Angeles. I wonder if Lue will give Beverly serious time in this series considering he's one of the most rested and through the regular season, gave Mitchell fits.
If Utah wants to win this series, they must find a way to consistently get more threes than Los Angeles. Gobert must punish them. Mitchell, Clarkson, Conley, and Ingles either must be successful against a switching defense or they must get out in transition enough (they are literally last in forcing turnovers) to get easy threes going against the set Los Angeles defense. Los Angeles prefers half-court sets that give them a good shot based on Leonard and George in the midrange. So Utah overall really needs a speedy, decisive offense.
As I said before, Los Angeles seems completely geared to beat Utah’s offensive and defensive system to the T, and I favor them simply because on paper as a team, they have to make the least changes to win at this point. There’s also an argument to be made for this potentially getting better through their first round series; I mean, we’ve seen it before with a couple of teams like the 2011 Dallas Mavericks or 2008 Boston Celtics. I’m not saying Los Angeles isn’t a Jekyll/Hyde team; I’m saying it’s an intangible, and that they should still be considered one of the best teams out west just based on star power and history.
when yall trade ben simmons make sure yall tag me
Tree Young
Bananers
V
Tree young
A 3 year defensive player of the year gets played off the court for a third consecutive year by a guard.
Stephen curry
Chris Paul / James Harden
....Reggie Jackson / Terance Mann
If you told me Rudy Fucking Gobert would get played off the court four straight games by Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann, I would have looked at you and said you outcho rabid ass mind.
He gon'.
Stephen curry
Chris Paul / James Harden
....Reggie Jackson / Terance Mann
If you told me Rudy Fucking Gobert would get played off the court four straight games by Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann, I would have looked at you and said you outcho rabid ass mind.
He gon'.
It's pretty hard to assess Clippers/Suns.
Kawhi and Paul have unknown statuses, and I'd favor Kawhi-less Clippers over Paul-less Suns.
But Suns with Paul halfway in the series sounds like a 50/50 nail biter.
Perhaps I should assume worst case scenario.
Without Paul, Suns are mortal to a switchy iso defense. They may guard it individually better than any team the Clippers have faced, but it could still be effective with them. Ayton just can't turn into a friggin' mushroom.
Dallas and Utah couldn't win small against them. They lacked a center talented and athletic enough to punish their small-ball snipists. Are Ayton and Booker, perhaps a Paul later on in the series able?
That's what it boils down to for me, because Suns individually got the bodies. The experience can potentially damn them, too. These Clippers are playoff tested and grew in the most powerful way these past few weeks.
This is 50/50 straight down in my eyes but only favor Phoenix because I am a fan of Paul. Paul winning a ring this year would be as awesome as Spurs 2014 for myself. He would be solidifying his legacy as a proven player through mind, body and spirit at his height and age. A technician, cerebral game manager and planner I've always strongly identified with. Here's to hoping.
Kawhi and Paul have unknown statuses, and I'd favor Kawhi-less Clippers over Paul-less Suns.
But Suns with Paul halfway in the series sounds like a 50/50 nail biter.
Perhaps I should assume worst case scenario.
Without Paul, Suns are mortal to a switchy iso defense. They may guard it individually better than any team the Clippers have faced, but it could still be effective with them. Ayton just can't turn into a friggin' mushroom.
Dallas and Utah couldn't win small against them. They lacked a center talented and athletic enough to punish their small-ball snipists. Are Ayton and Booker, perhaps a Paul later on in the series able?
That's what it boils down to for me, because Suns individually got the bodies. The experience can potentially damn them, too. These Clippers are playoff tested and grew in the most powerful way these past few weeks.
This is 50/50 straight down in my eyes but only favor Phoenix because I am a fan of Paul. Paul winning a ring this year would be as awesome as Spurs 2014 for myself. He would be solidifying his legacy as a proven player through mind, body and spirit at his height and age. A technician, cerebral game manager and planner I've always strongly identified with. Here's to hoping.
haven't posted in here in a while (been super busy irl lol) but wanted to weigh w my clippers vs suns prediction (will do the ecf too once we know the matchup):
probably the most interesting thing about this series will be the stylistic matchup between teams, where phoenix represents an update on the 90s team archetype (getting offense and playmaking through the guard and big spots with forwards providing shooting and defense) and the clippers represent the more new age 5-out switch-everything drive-and-kick paradigm. you can def say that the clippers' way is better for winning in the modern nba but at the same time there are noticeable flaws in it that I think the suns are equipped to target.
the primary difference there is defensive; for all the narratives about gobert's defensive impact or luka being a ballhog (lol), dallas and utah lost their series because kawhi and pg treated their best perimeter defenders like traffic cones over and over, which forced defensive rotations and opened up shots for their corner shooters. phoenix having a legitimate defensive stopper to put on pg in mikal bridges, with two other switchable forwards in cam johnson and jae crowder becomes a significant factor here in terms of not letting the best three-point shooting team in the league get the shots that they want. they won't stop the clippers outright but cooling them down from their 124.4 offensive rating is more than doable.
I'm not too worried about phoenix's offense; even with chris paul out, cam payne has been serviceable and after watching mitchell and luka cook I'd be very very surprised if booker couldn't comfortably get his in the series. that said, the biggest factor vs the clippers' switch-everything defense is going to be ayton; whether he can be physical enough against the clippers switches and kill them on the offensive glass to nerf their primary matchups. I think booker's playmaking is going to come in huge in this (elite finishers need playmakers to set them up), at least until cp3 comes back. if zubac can earn back his spot in the rotation for the ayton matchup (ayton being probably the best offensive big the clippers have faced considering that porzingis turned into a potato) and hold his own against booker (who plays at a more measured pace than luka and mitchell) then it becomes a dogfight though.
the morale factor is an interesting one ultimately; for all the 'suns haven't been tested yet' talk they beat the defending champions and swept a strong-looking denver team with cp3 only partially effective, and for all the lakers and nuggets' injuries they haven't looked really vulnerable since like game 4 of the first round, with booker in particular looking like he was born for this stage. meanwhile the clippers have finally shed the frontrunner label w the last two series and overall look like they're peaking at the right time, clippers curse notwithstanding (obviously don't want to litigate that in this analysis lol). ultimately while I agree that the clippers definitely have more experience the suns' superior chemistry and consistency has to count for something.
I've gone this far trying to pass over the obvious elephant in the room that both teams are entering this series with arguably their best player injured, but a quick run-over of the lost opportunities there; phoenix would have more stability when booker heads to the bench, ayton would be more of a factor with cp3 setting him up out of the pick and roll, and the suns would look like a better team in crunch time, meanwhile kawhi is probably the clippers' best option defending booker and his scoring would probably be necessary to crack the suns' defense. ultimately I'd say the obvious counter to both the above points is the redundancy built into both teams; pg can replicate kawhi's role well enough just as booker can replicate cp3's that neither team will really feel the drop-off until like 3-4 games into the series. ultimately it's worth noting the different situations the two teams are in aswell wrt their injured stars; it feels like a safe bet that cp3 returns and can be an impact player, but kawhi's injury status and his pending free agency complicate his potential return (my guess is that the clippers are confident in the fact that he resigns and choose to prioritise his health for future runs as opposed to going all-in this year). overall here's how it stacks up for me:
suns w/o cp3 vs clippers w/o kawhi: suns in 7
suns w cp3 vs clippers w/o kawhi: suns in 5-6
suns w/o cp3 vs clippers w kawhi: clippers in 6
suns w cp3 vs clippers w kawhi: tossup game 7, phoenix by a hair.
clippers win if: their shooters stay hot and the offense continues to hum, they dominate the non-booker minutes, they can contain ayton inside, if kawhi returns healthy enough to swing the series
suns win if: bridges can slow down pg13 without giving the clippers advantages, cam payne and booker's playmaking proves sufficient to beat the clippers' switch-everything defense, ayton continues his strong play this postseason, cp3 returns and can be an impact player
suns in 6 to advance to their first finals appearance since 1993
probably the most interesting thing about this series will be the stylistic matchup between teams, where phoenix represents an update on the 90s team archetype (getting offense and playmaking through the guard and big spots with forwards providing shooting and defense) and the clippers represent the more new age 5-out switch-everything drive-and-kick paradigm. you can def say that the clippers' way is better for winning in the modern nba but at the same time there are noticeable flaws in it that I think the suns are equipped to target.
the primary difference there is defensive; for all the narratives about gobert's defensive impact or luka being a ballhog (lol), dallas and utah lost their series because kawhi and pg treated their best perimeter defenders like traffic cones over and over, which forced defensive rotations and opened up shots for their corner shooters. phoenix having a legitimate defensive stopper to put on pg in mikal bridges, with two other switchable forwards in cam johnson and jae crowder becomes a significant factor here in terms of not letting the best three-point shooting team in the league get the shots that they want. they won't stop the clippers outright but cooling them down from their 124.4 offensive rating is more than doable.
I'm not too worried about phoenix's offense; even with chris paul out, cam payne has been serviceable and after watching mitchell and luka cook I'd be very very surprised if booker couldn't comfortably get his in the series. that said, the biggest factor vs the clippers' switch-everything defense is going to be ayton; whether he can be physical enough against the clippers switches and kill them on the offensive glass to nerf their primary matchups. I think booker's playmaking is going to come in huge in this (elite finishers need playmakers to set them up), at least until cp3 comes back. if zubac can earn back his spot in the rotation for the ayton matchup (ayton being probably the best offensive big the clippers have faced considering that porzingis turned into a potato) and hold his own against booker (who plays at a more measured pace than luka and mitchell) then it becomes a dogfight though.
the morale factor is an interesting one ultimately; for all the 'suns haven't been tested yet' talk they beat the defending champions and swept a strong-looking denver team with cp3 only partially effective, and for all the lakers and nuggets' injuries they haven't looked really vulnerable since like game 4 of the first round, with booker in particular looking like he was born for this stage. meanwhile the clippers have finally shed the frontrunner label w the last two series and overall look like they're peaking at the right time, clippers curse notwithstanding (obviously don't want to litigate that in this analysis lol). ultimately while I agree that the clippers definitely have more experience the suns' superior chemistry and consistency has to count for something.
I've gone this far trying to pass over the obvious elephant in the room that both teams are entering this series with arguably their best player injured, but a quick run-over of the lost opportunities there; phoenix would have more stability when booker heads to the bench, ayton would be more of a factor with cp3 setting him up out of the pick and roll, and the suns would look like a better team in crunch time, meanwhile kawhi is probably the clippers' best option defending booker and his scoring would probably be necessary to crack the suns' defense. ultimately I'd say the obvious counter to both the above points is the redundancy built into both teams; pg can replicate kawhi's role well enough just as booker can replicate cp3's that neither team will really feel the drop-off until like 3-4 games into the series. ultimately it's worth noting the different situations the two teams are in aswell wrt their injured stars; it feels like a safe bet that cp3 returns and can be an impact player, but kawhi's injury status and his pending free agency complicate his potential return (my guess is that the clippers are confident in the fact that he resigns and choose to prioritise his health for future runs as opposed to going all-in this year). overall here's how it stacks up for me:
suns w/o cp3 vs clippers w/o kawhi: suns in 7
suns w cp3 vs clippers w/o kawhi: suns in 5-6
suns w/o cp3 vs clippers w kawhi: clippers in 6
suns w cp3 vs clippers w kawhi: tossup game 7, phoenix by a hair.
clippers win if: their shooters stay hot and the offense continues to hum, they dominate the non-booker minutes, they can contain ayton inside, if kawhi returns healthy enough to swing the series
suns win if: bridges can slow down pg13 without giving the clippers advantages, cam payne and booker's playmaking proves sufficient to beat the clippers' switch-everything defense, ayton continues his strong play this postseason, cp3 returns and can be an impact player
suns in 6 to advance to their first finals appearance since 1993
Shit man that was perfect stuff up there. I can't analyze that fast anymore
honestly, dumb as shit
no way the clippers are beating the suns
use your head and think. . .
drunk shit
SUNS AND BUCKS IN THE FINALS
SUNS GET A RING, U HEARD IT HERE1ST
SUNS GET A RING, U HEARD IT HERE1ST
Ah, picking the two highest seeds remaining to make the finals, with the team that had the most wins winning it all...I definitely heard it here first, and not absolutely everywhere else.
For what it's worth, even as a staunch Traethiest, I think that the Hawks, Mavs and even the Suns are overwhelmingly happy with who they took. The only real loser from that draft class is the Sacramento Kings.
Paul George last free throws
Playoff P at the height of his powers. Nice FTs
Clips are just big-braining everyone. Can't lose to a .4 3pt shot to lose ofbyou give up a free lob dunk instead
Clips are just big-braining everyone. Can't lose to a .4 3pt shot to lose ofbyou give up a free lob dunk instead
When did i say they would? Calm down broski.
(5) Atlanta Hawks versus (3) Milwaukee Bucks
First, can I just say that these playoffs have been amazing? Three of the four conference finalists have not been in the conference finals in at least the last five years. Two of those teams have rising playoff rookie stars establishing their level of dominance. Booker has been known and judged as an empty stats star who could not pass or play defense. Now, he is a leading playoff performer for his team. Trae Young is a young point guard who went out with a whimper in the NCAA tournament years ago, and even this year had reports of beefing with his other teammate in Collins and ex-coach Lloyd Pierce. Nobody at all predicted Atlanta to get this far and for good reason. I’ve never seen the city of Atlanta excited and paying attention quite like this; not even when they made a conference final run with the most winning team they had back in 2015. Perhaps the personality and swagger of Young is truly what sells tickets and drives up the hype rather than a Spurs-like culture of ball-movement and man movement.
Then we have Milwaukee who… well, if I’m being honest, did not feel like they deserved to win their second round series. Milwaukee is probably the most underwhelming team remaining, but perhaps rest and a team a bit less imposing in size is just what the doctor ordered. What is there to expect in an Atlanta/Milwaukee match-up?
Trae Young makes 47% on shots between the three-point line and the paint. His floater has been the most potent weapon these playoffs. Milwaukee’s defensive scheme is geared toward giving up threes and protecting the paint. It’s safe to say that with Lopez’s drop-coverage this will always be open to Young. The first tug-and-pull I see between adjustments is how Trae’s floater game will be affected having Capela/Collins screen versus Lopez and if Budenholzer figures it out, Giannis at center. I want to say Lopez will do a better job than Embiid, but.. it was Embiid. He was on a torn meniscus, but it was still Embiid. Perhaps Lopez is better at positioning and anticipation enough to make this shot less potent. My only other wonder is if Milwaukee has the audacity to play Giannis at center and go strong for long stretches in case this gets out of hand. This is the most pressing advantage and threat Atlanta has on Milwaukee.
It does help Milwaukee that Jrue Holiday will be the defender on Young. Holiday’s defensive chops are still noteworthy here. I’m actually fairly confident Young is more likely to struggle this round just due to who is guarding him. Holiday will be the perfect test to *really* see how far Young has come. A combination of Holiday/Giannis would be a solid defensive answer for Young, and if Lopez can manage to contain well enough, Milwaukee is already in the driver’s seat to winning the series if all else equal.
McMillan might also opt to hide Young on someone like Tucker if he still starts. I think in this series, it will be incredibly hard for Young to hide defensively. Holiday, Middleton, and Giannis are horrible for him to be switched onto. Connaughton has four inches on him, PJ Tucker crashes the glass, and Forbes off the bench would shoot lights out against Young AND Williams. The fact that I feel Young is going to expend more energy on the other end finally is why I feel his chances of having a good series are significantly smaller than before. He simply must guard someone this time around.
Elsewhere on the perimeter, Milwaukee still has an edge to them. Middleton, Tucker, and Giannis are quite a physical and lengthy wing group to contend with. Defensively and offensively. Huerter, Gallinari, and Bogdan will have their hands full. Hill may get some minutes in this series, so McMillan will have to figure out what lineup matches up best with Milwaukee’s strong wings. Do you use more Hill for his size but sacrifice shooting? Or do you go all offense and try to outshoot Milwaukee while Middleton cooks whoever is on him, and Tucker locks the other guy? Tucker must be quite energetic to go from Durant to somebody like Bogdan. This will be a series Atlanta will miss their more physical wings in Hunter and Reddish. Reddish is questionable but it's hard to believe someone out 4 months and young can suddenly be effective in a conference finals.
And then of course the final element in all of this is Giannis. Does Atlanta have any reasonable way to stop him? Their options are Collins, Capela, Hill and Gallinari. Let us just say Giannis is going to have an easier time playing his game than Young.
Atlanta isn’t exactly known for their defense, and that did not quite show against one of the worst offensive playoff teams we saw in New York and one of the least deep in Philadelphia. I mean, McMIillan got away with playing both Young and Williams! That is not a line-up you simply run without being punished in an NBA playoff game. If Atlanta’s defense does not finally prove itself, this series will be short.
Y’all likely see where I’m going with this, and I’m sorry to my local Atlanta people. I must once again favor Atlanta losing though I was wrong twice about them. Of course, I believe Atlanta has a shot, but with the way Milwaukee is constructed, they overall seem like the more offensively and defensively balanced team. They have a roster full of physical defenders who can shoot, and a star who is prime to take advantage of Atlanta’s lack of options for him. Young has less places to hide defensively, and Atlanta’s team lacks a true defensive haymaker. When I see two team’s centered around two stars and it feels like the other star will have less obstacles and challenges, I gotta go with the less challenged star’s team here.
If Atlanta wants to win this, my theory is that they need to take advantage of the threes Milwaukee is more likely to give up due to their defensive scheme, and shoot lights out. I don't have faith in them stopping Milwaukee's own big three, but there's a chance if Young finds a way to create more threes for others.
Otherwise, Milwaukee should be heavily favored.
Then we have Milwaukee who… well, if I’m being honest, did not feel like they deserved to win their second round series. Milwaukee is probably the most underwhelming team remaining, but perhaps rest and a team a bit less imposing in size is just what the doctor ordered. What is there to expect in an Atlanta/Milwaukee match-up?
Trae Young makes 47% on shots between the three-point line and the paint. His floater has been the most potent weapon these playoffs. Milwaukee’s defensive scheme is geared toward giving up threes and protecting the paint. It’s safe to say that with Lopez’s drop-coverage this will always be open to Young. The first tug-and-pull I see between adjustments is how Trae’s floater game will be affected having Capela/Collins screen versus Lopez and if Budenholzer figures it out, Giannis at center. I want to say Lopez will do a better job than Embiid, but.. it was Embiid. He was on a torn meniscus, but it was still Embiid. Perhaps Lopez is better at positioning and anticipation enough to make this shot less potent. My only other wonder is if Milwaukee has the audacity to play Giannis at center and go strong for long stretches in case this gets out of hand. This is the most pressing advantage and threat Atlanta has on Milwaukee.
It does help Milwaukee that Jrue Holiday will be the defender on Young. Holiday’s defensive chops are still noteworthy here. I’m actually fairly confident Young is more likely to struggle this round just due to who is guarding him. Holiday will be the perfect test to *really* see how far Young has come. A combination of Holiday/Giannis would be a solid defensive answer for Young, and if Lopez can manage to contain well enough, Milwaukee is already in the driver’s seat to winning the series if all else equal.
McMillan might also opt to hide Young on someone like Tucker if he still starts. I think in this series, it will be incredibly hard for Young to hide defensively. Holiday, Middleton, and Giannis are horrible for him to be switched onto. Connaughton has four inches on him, PJ Tucker crashes the glass, and Forbes off the bench would shoot lights out against Young AND Williams. The fact that I feel Young is going to expend more energy on the other end finally is why I feel his chances of having a good series are significantly smaller than before. He simply must guard someone this time around.
Elsewhere on the perimeter, Milwaukee still has an edge to them. Middleton, Tucker, and Giannis are quite a physical and lengthy wing group to contend with. Defensively and offensively. Huerter, Gallinari, and Bogdan will have their hands full. Hill may get some minutes in this series, so McMillan will have to figure out what lineup matches up best with Milwaukee’s strong wings. Do you use more Hill for his size but sacrifice shooting? Or do you go all offense and try to outshoot Milwaukee while Middleton cooks whoever is on him, and Tucker locks the other guy? Tucker must be quite energetic to go from Durant to somebody like Bogdan. This will be a series Atlanta will miss their more physical wings in Hunter and Reddish. Reddish is questionable but it's hard to believe someone out 4 months and young can suddenly be effective in a conference finals.
And then of course the final element in all of this is Giannis. Does Atlanta have any reasonable way to stop him? Their options are Collins, Capela, Hill and Gallinari. Let us just say Giannis is going to have an easier time playing his game than Young.
Atlanta isn’t exactly known for their defense, and that did not quite show against one of the worst offensive playoff teams we saw in New York and one of the least deep in Philadelphia. I mean, McMIillan got away with playing both Young and Williams! That is not a line-up you simply run without being punished in an NBA playoff game. If Atlanta’s defense does not finally prove itself, this series will be short.
Y’all likely see where I’m going with this, and I’m sorry to my local Atlanta people. I must once again favor Atlanta losing though I was wrong twice about them. Of course, I believe Atlanta has a shot, but with the way Milwaukee is constructed, they overall seem like the more offensively and defensively balanced team. They have a roster full of physical defenders who can shoot, and a star who is prime to take advantage of Atlanta’s lack of options for him. Young has less places to hide defensively, and Atlanta’s team lacks a true defensive haymaker. When I see two team’s centered around two stars and it feels like the other star will have less obstacles and challenges, I gotta go with the less challenged star’s team here.
If Atlanta wants to win this, my theory is that they need to take advantage of the threes Milwaukee is more likely to give up due to their defensive scheme, and shoot lights out. I don't have faith in them stopping Milwaukee's own big three, but there's a chance if Young finds a way to create more threes for others.
Otherwise, Milwaukee should be heavily favored.