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Metagame SS OU Metagame Discussion Thread v7 (Usage Stats in post #3539)
- Thread starter TPP
- Start date
Heatran is a weird one, at least in that there are many solid checks counters to him, and like lando-t he is a glue mon that can compact many needs for a team in one but also has enough issues that keep it in check. I say weird as despite him being such a very common glue mon previously with new common pokemon rise in the meta like weavile or alolan ninetails he straight walks up to and laughs at, he's become more annoying to deal with as a result. It feels like there is a bit of saltiness to him from many players using these pokemon and discovering "hi i am heatran i'm common and still a thing and I'll destroy your trendy new pokemon" despite the fact he was never really seen this way before as much as lando-t infamously has been for a more o0pf a fun and simple way of summarizing it. Other factors allowing these pokemon to rise have risen in spite of heatrans very common presence anyways because they are effective against so many pokemon like dracopult who they pose a real threat too, or the new rise of hail as popular weather. Heatran still has the same old ways of dealing with it and they are still popular, it is weak to the omnipresent ground type weakness along with common weaknesses to water and fighting as well as the awkward speed tier it exists in which leaves it outspread by many pokemon in the metagame, putting it at odds with faster pokemon that can ko it or wear it down. Tt does not have any reliable recovery and any effort to use items like air balloon to mitigate that ground weakness will give up that passive recovery as it is vulnerable to all hazards. Heatran has gotten better for its ability to handle new meta trends which exist because other pokemon are inherently threatening or a playstyle that's been found to be more effective than prievously, which I feel has less to do with heatran being problematic and more the meta around it, using pokemon like again weavile that heatran laughs away to deal with other threats at the cost of pokemon like heatran being more effective against their teams.
Why Kyurem NEEDS a Ban:
Kyurem is a fantastic breaker, able to 2HKO every single pokemon in the tier with Choice Specs, with most teams not having even a single reliable switch into Ice Beam. Defensive and Substitute sets are fantastic as well, being able to sweep unprepared teams and wreak havoc against most playstyles. Specially Defensive Kyurem sets can even wall and stall out super effective hits such as a Tapu Koko Dazzling Gleam or a Clefable Moonblast with Pressure. Devastating coverage, a solid Speed tier, incredible bulk, and amazing offenses make Kyurem a force to be reckoned with, justifying its current spot in A ranking. Kyurem’s sheer power and coverage also makes it very difficult to cover in the builder, often forcing a team builder to choose between running a substandard pokemon or having a bad matchup against Kyurem. This alone is not enough to make Kyurem broken, however. The real problem, and the reason Kyurem absolutely needs a ban, is freezing. Freezing is uncompetitive, and it isn’t as unlikely as you may think.
Here’s how freezing actually works. Kyurem has a 10% chance to freeze with both Ice Beam and Freeze Dry. A frozen pokemon has a 20% chance to unfreeze each turn it is frozen, including the turn it is frozen (if the pokemon is slower than Kyurem). Below is the math used to support the statements I will make about freezing and unfreezing odds.
Mathematical Proof:
If Kyurem has a 10% chance to freeze each time it uses Ice Beam or Freeze Dry, it means the opposing pokemon has a 90% chance to NOT be frozen. To find the odds of NOT being frozen, the following function can be used:
(.9^x) * 100 = % odds of not being frozen
In this function, x is the number of Ice Beams or Freeze Dries used. To find the odds of BEING frozen, the following function can be used:
100 - (.9^x) * 100 = % odds of being frozen
For a pokemon UNFREEZING, the odds are 20% each turn a move is used, meaning there is an 80% chance to NOT unfreeze each turn.
Using a similar logical fashion to the chances of being frozen, the following function represents the odds of UNFREEZING:
100 - (.8^x) * 100 = % odds of unfreezing
In this case, x is the number of moves the pokemon uses while frozen.
Kyurem has approximately a 50% chance to freeze you after just 6 Ice Beams, and is more likely than not to freeze after 7 Ice Beams. This is a problem with all Kyurem sets, but bulky Kyurem sets in particular often fire off far more than 6 or 7 Ice Beams or Freeze Dries per game. After just 10 Freeze Dries, a fairly small number for say, A Kyurem on a Stall team, you have over a 65% chance of being frozen. For anyone who has faced a Kyurem on a fat team, especially a fat Kyurem on a fat team, you know that there are many chances to Freeze. All it takes is a single freeze on the counter to Kyurem, and the game is probably lost.
How does a frozen pokemon fare? Very, very poorly. Less than half of pokemon will unfreeze at 3 turns. This is often more than enough time for Kyurem to finish off the so-called “counter,” especially if the counter was frozen on the switch in. On the 4th turn of being frozen (if a pokemon somehow survives that long against a Kyurem), a pokemon has slightly under a 60% chance to unfreeze- this illustrates just how much of a death sentence a freeze is.
Now that you see the odds in front of you, you can see that the combination of Kyurem’s reliable and consistent breaking capabilities and bulk, combined with the shockingly high odds to freeze (and likely just win the game) are too much for the tier. Getting Kyurem out of the tier will make OU more competitive and enjoyable. Let’s ice this dragon.
P.S. If anyone is concerned that I don’t have the credentials to analyze whether a pokemon is banworthy or not, I would be happy to provide my experience. If you find any errors in my calculations, please let me know. I would also be glad to address opposing views and hear other opinions.
Kyurem is a fantastic breaker, able to 2HKO every single pokemon in the tier with Choice Specs, with most teams not having even a single reliable switch into Ice Beam. Defensive and Substitute sets are fantastic as well, being able to sweep unprepared teams and wreak havoc against most playstyles. Specially Defensive Kyurem sets can even wall and stall out super effective hits such as a Tapu Koko Dazzling Gleam or a Clefable Moonblast with Pressure. Devastating coverage, a solid Speed tier, incredible bulk, and amazing offenses make Kyurem a force to be reckoned with, justifying its current spot in A ranking. Kyurem’s sheer power and coverage also makes it very difficult to cover in the builder, often forcing a team builder to choose between running a substandard pokemon or having a bad matchup against Kyurem. This alone is not enough to make Kyurem broken, however. The real problem, and the reason Kyurem absolutely needs a ban, is freezing. Freezing is uncompetitive, and it isn’t as unlikely as you may think.
Here’s how freezing actually works. Kyurem has a 10% chance to freeze with both Ice Beam and Freeze Dry. A frozen pokemon has a 20% chance to unfreeze each turn it is frozen, including the turn it is frozen (if the pokemon is slower than Kyurem). Below is the math used to support the statements I will make about freezing and unfreezing odds.
Mathematical Proof:
If Kyurem has a 10% chance to freeze each time it uses Ice Beam or Freeze Dry, it means the opposing pokemon has a 90% chance to NOT be frozen. To find the odds of NOT being frozen, the following function can be used:
(.9^x) * 100 = % odds of not being frozen
In this function, x is the number of Ice Beams or Freeze Dries used. To find the odds of BEING frozen, the following function can be used:
100 - (.9^x) * 100 = % odds of being frozen
For a pokemon UNFREEZING, the odds are 20% each turn a move is used, meaning there is an 80% chance to NOT unfreeze each turn.
Using a similar logical fashion to the chances of being frozen, the following function represents the odds of UNFREEZING:
100 - (.8^x) * 100 = % odds of unfreezing
In this case, x is the number of moves the pokemon uses while frozen.
Kyurem has approximately a 50% chance to freeze you after just 6 Ice Beams, and is more likely than not to freeze after 7 Ice Beams. This is a problem with all Kyurem sets, but bulky Kyurem sets in particular often fire off far more than 6 or 7 Ice Beams or Freeze Dries per game. After just 10 Freeze Dries, a fairly small number for say, A Kyurem on a Stall team, you have over a 65% chance of being frozen. For anyone who has faced a Kyurem on a fat team, especially a fat Kyurem on a fat team, you know that there are many chances to Freeze. All it takes is a single freeze on the counter to Kyurem, and the game is probably lost.
How does a frozen pokemon fare? Very, very poorly. Less than half of pokemon will unfreeze at 3 turns. This is often more than enough time for Kyurem to finish off the so-called “counter,” especially if the counter was frozen on the switch in. On the 4th turn of being frozen (if a pokemon somehow survives that long against a Kyurem), a pokemon has slightly under a 60% chance to unfreeze- this illustrates just how much of a death sentence a freeze is.
Now that you see the odds in front of you, you can see that the combination of Kyurem’s reliable and consistent breaking capabilities and bulk, combined with the shockingly high odds to freeze (and likely just win the game) are too much for the tier. Getting Kyurem out of the tier will make OU more competitive and enjoyable. Let’s ice this dragon.
P.S. If anyone is concerned that I don’t have the credentials to analyze whether a pokemon is banworthy or not, I would be happy to provide my experience. If you find any errors in my calculations, please let me know. I would also be glad to address opposing views and hear other opinions.
Based, to be honest. I don't see Kyurem much compared to the likes of Dragapult, but when I do, it's incredibly hard to deal with. The only real answer I can actually think of is probably Scizor, which:
-has a 4x weakness
-isn't splashable
-is broken by focus blast and repeated chip, the latter of which good Kyurem teams excel at
No, Melmetal is not a counter. Short-term check, maybe.
I would support at least looking into it, maybe. Specs is ridiculously strong, and sub sets are annoying. Random Scarf Kyurems are infuriating as well. Basically, I wouldn't mind a suspect but if one never happens I wouldn't cry about it
Also, ban Cosmic Power.
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Even outside of the argument of freezes, kyurem is a lot of guess work. Only thing in the tier that can manage it defensively no matter what it clicks is 200 hp 56 spdef blissey with no chip damage, and that's not accounting for focus blast drops potentially and at that point your "answer" is at 52%,. I feel like what makes kyurem even more absurd is volt switch/u turn being so prevalent in this generation along with the lack of emphases on hazards due to hdb its a prime condition for something like kyurem to get in without too much hassle, and then initiate the dice roll. Feels all to similar to gen 6 hoopa-u but a lot more rng. Kyurems bulk is also surprisingly good, and I feel even the non specs sets are actually similarly difficult to manage defensively due to freezes. There's not much cleric options in gen 8 so you sort of have to go out of you way to actually have a cleric if you want to account for kyurem freeze, clefable is a good option but that's literally the only option unless you are using like trick room healing wish or stall which you have blissey already with natural cure, just don't get dropped vs specs focus blast. There really is not much defensive play around kyurem, and I feel like the offensive counterplay around kyurem doesn't really matter with the state of gen 8 as a whole with hdb momentum moves/tp stuff. Not even like fitting some sort of tp user/hdb or specs u turner is difficult either theres tons of them, you' have to go out of your way not to use atleast one of them on a non stall team. Kyurem has too many aspects regarding his wall breaking that he can abuse and the counterplay to kyurem honestly feels irrelevant with how accessible momentum options are and hazards being as negligable as they have ever been (assuming its specs, then again he has a million sets so who cares).
Very interesting take, Kyurem to me has been the 2nd biggest threat in the tier (Not best as Lando-T and Pult can be more reliable and splashable, but I wouldn't say they are bigger threats than Kyurem) behind the Chip Champion Heatran.
Kyurem's ability to 2HKO the entire OU tier with a 317 speed tier is a lot to handle. Kyurem does have to rely on hitting 2 focus blasts against Blissey and Scizor which is basically a 50/50 chance, if it doesn't get killed by a BP before the 2nd focus blast can even come out. The problem being like qwerty above said:
Blissey is a little better at this, and I would actually consider a decent check to Kyurem, but requires Sp.D investment to do so. I think we can all just agree that under any circumstances, Kyurem is difficult to switch into by any mon in the OU tier. Not impossible, but difficult. With the correct predictions and counterplay Kyurem CAN be played around, but using the logic "just predict lol" doesn't really apply when the opponent can do the same thing. Kyurem getting Freeze-Dry this gen has really kept it as a top-tier threat for so long, and I think a suspect has been on everyones mind at one point, but just out of reach to truly follow through.
I would definitely support a suspect test, but not exactly sure which way I lean on the ban argument, but I think taking a controversial mon like Kyurem and putting in up to the votes of the people is kinda what suspect tests are made for. Whether its truly bannable or not is a different question, but definitely leans on the line between the two.
i dont have a whole lot to say about kyurem that isnt blatantly obvious, nor do i have a strong opinion on whether its broken or not. however, something these posts havent commented on yet is how absurdly good the nevermelt ice kyurem set is. Despite sacrificing most mus vs blissey, you get most of the benefits of specs kyurem with the ability to freely click buttons and to roost. Ive been able to put in extreme work with this set the past couple days, being able to bluff specs and pick apart teams. Catching recklessly played heatrans, being able to freely swap between freeze dry and ice beam and to recover with roost (when in conjunction with pressure can win some mus with pp stall). Never Melt Ice is honestly a huge part of kyurems resurgence in the tier and should be talked about in further conversation about kyurem.
heres two replays from last week in stour and ou ssnl of NMI Kyurem winning from mu and putting in some work 1 / 2. If you want to see more NMI Kyurem replays, literally click on any ou scl game and theres like a 40% chance youll see one as its like the only kyurem set being ran there for a good reason. im sure if tiering was 100% up to finch, kyurem wouldve been banned as soon as NMI became a set. all things considered, this set is insanely annoying to deal with even if you know its never melt ice. being able to freely click buttons while maintaining a high damage output + being able to roost is super obnoxious, while the only viable mons checking it are blissey, spdef ferro (can be worn down), gking (cant be knocked and loses the 1v1 most of the time anyway), volcarona and super spdef scizor. your best bet vs this set, like any kyurem, is to offensively out pressure it which can be hard to do if you cant position yourself.
heres two replays from last week in stour and ou ssnl of NMI Kyurem winning from mu and putting in some work 1 / 2. If you want to see more NMI Kyurem replays, literally click on any ou scl game and theres like a 40% chance youll see one as its like the only kyurem set being ran there for a good reason. im sure if tiering was 100% up to finch, kyurem wouldve been banned as soon as NMI became a set. all things considered, this set is insanely annoying to deal with even if you know its never melt ice. being able to freely click buttons while maintaining a high damage output + being able to roost is super obnoxious, while the only viable mons checking it are blissey, spdef ferro (can be worn down), gking (cant be knocked and loses the 1v1 most of the time anyway), volcarona and super spdef scizor. your best bet vs this set, like any kyurem, is to offensively out pressure it which can be hard to do if you cant position yourself.
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Would like to highlight that the qualified responders almost broke 50 percent in wanting tiering action for Kyurem
fuck kyurem Jesus fuck the fact that you have legit rely on bitches like volcarona and blissey to even check kyurem is so annoying not to mention the bullshit freeze to legit freeze checks like av melm is even more stupid and bs I would 100% support a ban, all of its sets are annoying as shit and basically have no counterplay expect getting rocks up and revenge killing it.
Kyurem is a powerful Pokémon no doubt about that…but “powerful” doesn’t mean that the mon is broken.The current SS OU metagame has plenty of ways of dealing with kyurem so much that it is an absolute surprise that we are even discussing a potential ban. Need I remind you we have Mons such as Slowking-Galar Volcarona Chansey/Blissey Heatran(only soft checks the scarf set) and Melmetal. You might be saying to yourself “but earthpower and Focus blast exist on kyurem!”and to that I say that for all mons I listed here with the exception of Heatran they all live relatively comfortable from such an assault. In the end it all boils down to team composition if you have a team weak to kyurem that’s on you because kyurem doesn’t even restrict team builds. The counter play is literally don’t suck. :)
kinda disappointing how little thought kyurem deserved to at least be suspect tested in the survey. is there actually any harm in doing a suspect test? at worst every qualified voter can vote no ban and nothing at all changes, at best the majority agree it is broken and it gets banned. i'm definitely of the opinion that kyurem deserves to be suspect tested and if it was i would vote ban. the specs set is overwhelming and will usually get a few kills unless you have chansey/blissey, scarf might get a few surprise kills but is a lot easier to deal with but sub/roost is demonic. it has a few checks but i don't think it has a true counter thanks to the ability to freeze, in fact just yesterday my kyurem was able to beat chansey from full 1v1 because of freeze. these are just the most common sets kyurem runs, it has many more viable sets, like bulky dd, phys def body press, never-melt ice which could all destroy unprepared/unsuspecting teams.
That's not viable counterplay. Kyurem has a way to beat all the checks you listed with just Specs. Keep in mind that Kyurem is in no way a noob-killer; qualified responders to the survey had a quite negative opinion of it. In other words, it's just as much of a menace in high-level play.
Quite sus take
The thing about Kyurem is that it runs mainly two sets Specs and Scarf (not recognizing the hdb set)The problem of running choice sets leaves you being locked into a single move Everymon I listed can take a hit pretty easily from specs kyurem with the exception of Heatran. Allowing you to pivot around it relatively easily. You should be able to differentiate the amount of damage kyurem does with these mons as well allowing you to identify the exact set your opponent is running.
How many teams don’t have one of those 4 (not counting Tran bc it’s only a check to one set and that’s if they don’t just EP you) though? And if you have to have one of those 4, is that not restricting to team building?
Don't really care if Kyurem gets suspected/banned/whatever but there's definitely more to it than just those two sets you listed and if you read baloors post above you would know this or at least learn from it a bit. Identifying what set something runs for a mon like Kyurem requires guesswork not in your favor until you are hit, this is assuming you even have a favorable matchup against it or something to switch into it.
Realistically, how many checks do you think a mon should have before it’s considered not constricting on teambuilding? 4 Pokémon that can handle kyurem pretty well defensively and are not total deadweight otherwise is a pretty big number, even though the guy left out some other defensive checks such as clefable and Volcarona, Not to mention the large amount of offensive checks that can put kyurem down very quickly. Ive also seen zero mention of stealth rocks on this thread so far.
Boi the legend fiend has an absolutely amazing arc. From being the joke of the rems in gen 5 in terms of ou now terrorising ou like how it should have. RUBL for the past two gens and now voices are raising against it. Ice type helping it offensively, dragon defensively. I bet you can run any sensible set you can have moderate or even good success
I don’t disagree necessarily, I mean I think heatran is just as restricting personally. It’s moreso that saying Kyurem doesn’t restrict team building isn’t true, but I would personally also say it about Heatran.. the question is moreso “what level of restriction on team building is acceptable?”
The Nevermeltice set with Ice Beam / Freeze Dry / Earth Power / Roost is comfortably the best Kyurem set and what has driven the charge for action; it is no coincidence that about half of the qualified responses called for a suspect. The complimentary nature of Choice Specs and DD sets deserve mention of course as counterplay varies, but normally DD sets are easy to detect on team preview, frequently paired with trapping support, and Specs trades off being able to swap moves for extra power and Draco nuking Fires / Focus doing more to Steels/Blissey than anything otherwise would if it connects.
I personally am fine with a Kyurem suspect as Scizor is the only true check that fits balance and bulky offense well while being consistent. Volcarona is challenging to use with all of the Heatran running around, Blissey’s reactive nature does not mesh too well with the metagame and despite this it’s seeing a slight uptick in usage largely due to Kyurem and Dragapult, and things like Jirachi are just so mediocre in a metagame filled with Spikes, Heatran, Ground types everywhere, etc. that teambuilding is held hostage a bit by Kyurem.
Is it unplayable? Absolutely not. Is it the only teambuilding restrictive? Not at all. Kyurem simply is the biggest roadblock and the closest thing to broken imo. I’m not sure I would vote ban at this moment in time, but a suspect would be appropriate if it were up to just me. It’s not though — the survey results are up and we are still discussing what to make of them, especially given our current timeline, so we shall see.
I personally am fine with a Kyurem suspect as Scizor is the only true check that fits balance and bulky offense well while being consistent. Volcarona is challenging to use with all of the Heatran running around, Blissey’s reactive nature does not mesh too well with the metagame and despite this it’s seeing a slight uptick in usage largely due to Kyurem and Dragapult, and things like Jirachi are just so mediocre in a metagame filled with Spikes, Heatran, Ground types everywhere, etc. that teambuilding is held hostage a bit by Kyurem.
Is it unplayable? Absolutely not. Is it the only teambuilding restrictive? Not at all. Kyurem simply is the biggest roadblock and the closest thing to broken imo. I’m not sure I would vote ban at this moment in time, but a suspect would be appropriate if it were up to just me. It’s not though — the survey results are up and we are still discussing what to make of them, especially given our current timeline, so we shall see.
Considering our current timeline what would banning kyurem even do for our meta except make it fatter than it already is and make rain stronger than it already is. Also why is the never melt ice set the one that rocked the boat? Surely what makes kyurem broken in the first place is it’s very good movepool with attacks like earthpower and focus blast, using never melt ice as your attack booster sacrifices the extra power you can get on your moves with a choice specs set which then doesn’t allow you to ohko or 2 hit ko mons you would have with the latter. It’s worth considering consequences of banning such a staple mon.
Not only can Kyurem run HDB, making it very difficult to chip, but you have left the bulk of my argument completely unaddressed. I agree with you that Kyurem has enough checks that it is not banworthy-- the problem is it FREEZES Volcarona, Clefable, Melmetal, Scizor, and more! This massive uncompetitive aspect of Kyurem, combined with being very good in general, is what makes it banworthy.
Kyurem is a pain in the ass. It is too strong and bulky. Freeze Dry / Ground / Fighting is a complete bitch to play around. The Sub Roost pressure stall sets are cancer. The bulk is disgusting. Then when you actually dedicate a slot to Scizor, Volcarona, or suboptimal SpDef sets on Clef/Corv they just get frozen and lose anyway. Kyurem is not unbeatable but makes the game less enjoyable in my opinion.
Please don't apply the "But X will be too good if Kyurem gets banned" argument. Kyurem is most harmful to balanced playstyles, being less effective, though still good, against the extremes (stall and HO). Claiming that Kyurem is a staple mon doesn't make a lot of sense-- it harms balance, and has very little structural importance in the tier defensively speaking. Furthermore, you have not addressed the freezing at all, which is the major reason Kyurem deserves a ban. If you have not done so yet, please take a look at the Freezing odds I posted. Banning Kyurem would make the tier more competitive, now that we can get rid of randomly losing to freezes.
If that becomes a problem, we can address it then. We do not tier in fear of the future, but rather to cater to the problems of the present. Also, I fielded only a single complaint about Rain over 980 separate responses in the survey, so I struggle to see that ever being an issue.
Have you ever used the set? It has been the most common for months now and being able to swap up Ice moves to maximize power or hit Waters is huge. Earth Power is the main complimentary coverage needed and that is still there. Specs being prediction reliant is a huge limiting factor and nobody really complained about it for months when it was the primary Kyurem set. The Specs set standalone is not worthy of suspect attention at all.