(2) toronto raptors vs (3) boston celtics
I'd probably be remiss to start my preview without noting that all things considered, this has the potential to be the best series of this nba playoffs. from a narrative perspective it's the two best organisations in the eastern conference getting their long-awaited showdown, as the nba experiences the bitter boston-toronto rivalry that's become a byword in the nhl, and from a pure basketball perspective it's two incredibly deep and well rounded rosters coached by tactical wunderkinds. what's not to like?
from a defensive standpoint it's hard to call individual matchups considering how much potential there is for cross-matches or rotations and how neither team sticks 100% to man coverage anyways, but it still feels pretty straightforwards at a glance. og anunoby will probably get the first shot at checking jayson tatum, with lowry on jaylen brown and fred vanvleet on kemba walker. the interesting thing to me though is the other two matchups; it wouldn't surprise me for instance to see nick nurse put siakam on daniel theis to nuke boston's preferred pick-and-rolls, since there's no point in running those just to drag another elite, switchable defender into either kemba or tatum's orbit, while marcus smart's lack of a threat off the dribble should make him easy for gasol to contain. siakam on tatum also looks pretty imposing, as siakam's speed, length and ability to recover probably makes him the best counter to tatum on paper, but I imagine that the raptors would rather keep that in reserve as a trump card (or simply to conserve their star's energy).
the celtics' matchups also look pretty straightforwards; jaylen brown will probably take siakam like he has during the regular season, and tatum will take lowry. as for marcus smart, though, I'm not sure; is he better on vanvleet to hold off his red-hot three-point shooting? or would the celtics rather put him on anunoby so that he can attack passing lanes or put in work as a help defender? does smart on siakam become their trump card if it comes down to that? the other question I ask is how the celtics deal with kemba on defense; he can definitely hold his own and is probably quick enough to keep up with say vanvleet, but the raptors may run inverted pick-and-rolls with one of anunoby or siakam to drag kemba out (even though lowry is generally better as the screener in those actions). might be something to watch for.
the raptors' offense sits in an interesting spot because they have a lot of options but not all of them are efficient / easily createable / effective against boston's defense (for example the raptors' deadly transition game is countered by the celtics having the best transition defense in the league). one thing that does seem to have promise though is deploying gasol in the post; boston couldn't fully contain embiid last round, and gasol is clearly a more skilled post operator and has better floor spacing to work with. in any case though, the crux of it is siakam. in his first game against boston he showed he had what it took to run up points against the celtics, and even in the bubble game he managed to take brown off the dribble a couple of times. if he gets going early then boston might as well throw in the towel, but if he's stymied than I'm not sure what happens. one thing could be deploying him out of the short-roll a la draymond, particularly if he could drag kemba's man into it, because that gives him maximum room to maneuver and leverage his widening skillset.
boston's task is a little more straightforwards but not without complications of its own; the raptors give up the lowest percentage on 3 point shots on the league and only allow 0.81 points per isolation. it's here where I feel they'll miss gordon hayward the most, since his well-rounded game and playmaking were critical to facilitating boston's offense and would count for worlds in giving boston more avenues of attack. on a macro level boston's bench looks very shaky; norman powell and serge ibaka are clearly the two best reserves in the series and it's not particularly close, while boston's best backup in enes kanter will probably be targeted relentlessly since its an open secret that he can't guard in space. hell boston's bench being non-shooters probably counts against them as the raptors will simply hone in on whichever two of kemba / brown / tatum are on the floor and dare ojeleye / wanamaker / robert williams to do something.
the last thing I would want to mention is the possibility that the raptors' jumbo lineup makes an appearance, particularly against boston's transitional lineups. the argument of just targeting boston's lack of size and punishing them with rebounds and kick-outs to shooters is tempting and it could provoke a cascading effect. again, the celtics lacking hayward cuts into their offense and their ability to effectively answer said jumbo lineup without sacrificing too much on either offense or defense.
on the whole it's reductive af to say that this is a matchup of star power against depth considering how intricately constructed both rosters are and the options they have, but...that's what it boils down to I feel. can kemba and tatum carry the scoring load on a barrage of pull-up threes and spit in the eye of the raptors' defense or are boston's stars being asked to do too much and in infavorable circumstances nonetheless? does the raptors' optionality give them the best chances of targeting boston's weak underbelly and adapting to the unforeseen, or is it just masking their lack of the star power that's necessary to win a title? I don't know for certain, but I feel that toronto having more reliable bodies and being able to attack boston at positions of weakness (particularly their frontcourt) seems like the decisive factor to me. I also think that nick nurse is a better coach than brad stevens on the whole and is more likely to hit on the series-busting adjustment that's necessary to win. against that the celtics do have tatum, but it just doesn't look like tatum's enough on paper, especially consdering the defense he'll be asked to work through.
toronto wins if; they hit threes at their regular season rate. siakam manages to get back in a groove and is impossible to contain inside. vanvleet maintains his red-hot bubble form and ability to stretch the celtics' defense to 30 feet or so. theis and kanter are consistently brutalised by gasol and ibaka. boston's bench players are run off the floor, forcing the celtics to keep two of tatum / brown / kemba on the floor at all times and making fatigue a real possibility.
boston wins if; tatum and kemba maintain their hot hands and the raptors fail to find a way to stop them from raining pull-up threes or getting to the rim. jaylen brown manages to contain siakam and render him into a mere all-star caliber scorer. the jumbo lineup fails to overpower boston's sharp defense or work around their ability to force turnovers in crunch time. the raptors' offense goes flat as a whole as their transition game dries up and they can't consistently score in the halfcourt.
toronto in 6
I'd probably be remiss to start my preview without noting that all things considered, this has the potential to be the best series of this nba playoffs. from a narrative perspective it's the two best organisations in the eastern conference getting their long-awaited showdown, as the nba experiences the bitter boston-toronto rivalry that's become a byword in the nhl, and from a pure basketball perspective it's two incredibly deep and well rounded rosters coached by tactical wunderkinds. what's not to like?
from a defensive standpoint it's hard to call individual matchups considering how much potential there is for cross-matches or rotations and how neither team sticks 100% to man coverage anyways, but it still feels pretty straightforwards at a glance. og anunoby will probably get the first shot at checking jayson tatum, with lowry on jaylen brown and fred vanvleet on kemba walker. the interesting thing to me though is the other two matchups; it wouldn't surprise me for instance to see nick nurse put siakam on daniel theis to nuke boston's preferred pick-and-rolls, since there's no point in running those just to drag another elite, switchable defender into either kemba or tatum's orbit, while marcus smart's lack of a threat off the dribble should make him easy for gasol to contain. siakam on tatum also looks pretty imposing, as siakam's speed, length and ability to recover probably makes him the best counter to tatum on paper, but I imagine that the raptors would rather keep that in reserve as a trump card (or simply to conserve their star's energy).
the celtics' matchups also look pretty straightforwards; jaylen brown will probably take siakam like he has during the regular season, and tatum will take lowry. as for marcus smart, though, I'm not sure; is he better on vanvleet to hold off his red-hot three-point shooting? or would the celtics rather put him on anunoby so that he can attack passing lanes or put in work as a help defender? does smart on siakam become their trump card if it comes down to that? the other question I ask is how the celtics deal with kemba on defense; he can definitely hold his own and is probably quick enough to keep up with say vanvleet, but the raptors may run inverted pick-and-rolls with one of anunoby or siakam to drag kemba out (even though lowry is generally better as the screener in those actions). might be something to watch for.
the raptors' offense sits in an interesting spot because they have a lot of options but not all of them are efficient / easily createable / effective against boston's defense (for example the raptors' deadly transition game is countered by the celtics having the best transition defense in the league). one thing that does seem to have promise though is deploying gasol in the post; boston couldn't fully contain embiid last round, and gasol is clearly a more skilled post operator and has better floor spacing to work with. in any case though, the crux of it is siakam. in his first game against boston he showed he had what it took to run up points against the celtics, and even in the bubble game he managed to take brown off the dribble a couple of times. if he gets going early then boston might as well throw in the towel, but if he's stymied than I'm not sure what happens. one thing could be deploying him out of the short-roll a la draymond, particularly if he could drag kemba's man into it, because that gives him maximum room to maneuver and leverage his widening skillset.
boston's task is a little more straightforwards but not without complications of its own; the raptors give up the lowest percentage on 3 point shots on the league and only allow 0.81 points per isolation. it's here where I feel they'll miss gordon hayward the most, since his well-rounded game and playmaking were critical to facilitating boston's offense and would count for worlds in giving boston more avenues of attack. on a macro level boston's bench looks very shaky; norman powell and serge ibaka are clearly the two best reserves in the series and it's not particularly close, while boston's best backup in enes kanter will probably be targeted relentlessly since its an open secret that he can't guard in space. hell boston's bench being non-shooters probably counts against them as the raptors will simply hone in on whichever two of kemba / brown / tatum are on the floor and dare ojeleye / wanamaker / robert williams to do something.
the last thing I would want to mention is the possibility that the raptors' jumbo lineup makes an appearance, particularly against boston's transitional lineups. the argument of just targeting boston's lack of size and punishing them with rebounds and kick-outs to shooters is tempting and it could provoke a cascading effect. again, the celtics lacking hayward cuts into their offense and their ability to effectively answer said jumbo lineup without sacrificing too much on either offense or defense.
on the whole it's reductive af to say that this is a matchup of star power against depth considering how intricately constructed both rosters are and the options they have, but...that's what it boils down to I feel. can kemba and tatum carry the scoring load on a barrage of pull-up threes and spit in the eye of the raptors' defense or are boston's stars being asked to do too much and in infavorable circumstances nonetheless? does the raptors' optionality give them the best chances of targeting boston's weak underbelly and adapting to the unforeseen, or is it just masking their lack of the star power that's necessary to win a title? I don't know for certain, but I feel that toronto having more reliable bodies and being able to attack boston at positions of weakness (particularly their frontcourt) seems like the decisive factor to me. I also think that nick nurse is a better coach than brad stevens on the whole and is more likely to hit on the series-busting adjustment that's necessary to win. against that the celtics do have tatum, but it just doesn't look like tatum's enough on paper, especially consdering the defense he'll be asked to work through.
toronto wins if; they hit threes at their regular season rate. siakam manages to get back in a groove and is impossible to contain inside. vanvleet maintains his red-hot bubble form and ability to stretch the celtics' defense to 30 feet or so. theis and kanter are consistently brutalised by gasol and ibaka. boston's bench players are run off the floor, forcing the celtics to keep two of tatum / brown / kemba on the floor at all times and making fatigue a real possibility.
boston wins if; tatum and kemba maintain their hot hands and the raptors fail to find a way to stop them from raining pull-up threes or getting to the rim. jaylen brown manages to contain siakam and render him into a mere all-star caliber scorer. the jumbo lineup fails to overpower boston's sharp defense or work around their ability to force turnovers in crunch time. the raptors' offense goes flat as a whole as their transition game dries up and they can't consistently score in the halfcourt.
toronto in 6
