2020-21 NBA Season

Lord Ninjax

Lord Ninjax

not the conference finals we expected, but the conference finals we deserved ig. go team chaos.

probably the biggest note about this series is the bucks' seeming weakness against pick-n-roll heavy teams with multiple players who can hit shots off the dribble against drop coverage; the weakness that doomed them against the raptors in 2019 and the heat in 2020 and the one that they've spent pretty much all of this season working to fix. trae looking like a generational pnr talent through his last two seasons should be a dicey matchup on paper, but the tape doesn't really hold that out; in his one game against milwaukee this year he went 3-17 and he's shooting 36% from the field against the bucks for his career (averaging 8 assists in those matchups though). bucks missing donte divincenzio stings them hard because he's their best guy for harassing a player like trae, chasing him around screens etc etc, and his absence forces them to either go bigger and slower or play defensive liabilities like bryn forbes. ultimately I think that if lopez can stay on the floor the bucks should be fine but the specter of the hawks getting hot still looms.

atlanta's defense has done ungodly work all postseason but I can't help but think the buck stops here (no pun intended). middleton and jrue are the best and second best perimeter creators the hawks have had to face all postseason by a pretty large margin, and it becomes much harder to hide trae (or lou williams) against a team whose worst offensive player is...pj tucker? the swing factor is of course the giannis v capela matchup; if (and that's a big if) capela can avoid getting into heavy foul trouble or just run over his defense and rim protection can definitely sway this series and make it possible for atlanta to close strong, but I think that ultimately giannis is just too strong and too committed for that to happen. even with that taken into account the hawks' lack of elite perimeter stoppers is pretty noticeable, and after they spent game 7 matchup-hunting seth curry they could see the bucks easily turn the tables on them.

ultimately, even in a league where offense is king, this series comes down to defense and team construction. despite all the caveats of the brooklyn series the bucks' defense held firm and clamped down against some of the best offensive players in the league when it mattered most, while the hawks' defense simply hasn't been tested the way the bucks are going to test them. I know for a fact that mcmillan will outcoach budenholzer, I just don't think it really matters unless it's to a massive degree; the biggest advantage the hawks had in previous rounds is that they were playing teams heavy on specialists with weak perimeter creation, and could play divide and conquer (target the other team's offensive players on defense, ignore the defensive specialists on offense, worked against every player from seth curry and julius randle to reggie bullock and ben simmons). they don't really have that advantage against the bucks though, who have not only creation from multiple spots but size and variety and enough dynamism to be able to create against a defense that doesn't really have elite personnel beyond capela (with hunter on the shelf).

while I've seen what the hawks have done all season and I refuse to rule them out just because, it feels like the clock's about ready to strike midnight on their run. insofar as mental factors or momentum exist here they probably go favour milwaukee, whose key players are either in the middle or the tail-end of their prime, and who know that they may never again get a chance like this after overcoming brooklyn. this doesn't take away from what atlanta's done this season (or with their rebuild as a whole) or the core they have, it's just the nature of the beast. every series ends with one team going home.

bucks win if; giannis dominates inside, the hawks' best offensive players are matchup-hunted off the floor by middleton, their shooters hit enough shots to keep the offense from gumming up, budenholzer stops leaving points on the board.

hawks win if; mcmillan manages to successfully scheme to slow giannis and middleton down, the hawks shooters get hot, trae does enough to keep the offense running and close.

bucks in 5.5 (I reserve the right to claim this prediction correct whether the series goes 5 games or 6). hawks will be back next season and I predict that they eventually break through and win it all with this core.

at least this wasn't 2019?

- while I think the fit questions between the top3 prospects and top3 teams picking are overblown (short answers; detroit can and should be able to work out a hayes-cunningham backcourt tandem, houston probably moves wood and signs a conventional big man to tandem with mobley (wood not being a great rim or post protector hurts that potential partnership), cleveland's still in the phase of the rebuild where anything other than bpa is a mistake and they can easily move sexton or garland if it doesn't work out), I def sense a level of discomfort that doesn't really align with past drafts (most of the smoke from last year was questions about which of ant / lamelo / wiseman would pan out and / or whether teams would be better off avoiding them). could definitely be more movement than usual this year, especially with orlando and oklahoma city having multiple picks in this draft and desperate for a true centerpiece.

- for what it's worth I still can't believe presti pulled off the process 2.0 just to end up with 6th overall. if I could bottle thunder fans' tears of frustration from last night I'd make a goddamn killing lol, they probably move up in the end but even so. at least we know that the anti-tanking lottery odds change did what it was supposed to.

- golden state's comments feel very indicative of them wanting to move out of the draft entirely (having been burned by wiseman in regards to development vs winning I can't blame them), but I wonder who exactly they're planning on getting. wiggins' somewhat revival last season probably makes him palatable as a salary filler when you consider that #7 and #14 are likely being thrown in, but there's not a lot of noise around any real difference-making stars like beal. sacramento is apparently also shopping their pick somewhat in earnest which could be interesting.

- I wrote this expecting it to be longer than it was, which, lol, probably have to revisit it around the draft proper. I'm still putting together a draft board of my own in earnest but yeah, wasn't a particularly chaotic draft outside of okc's tears (worst two teams got the top2 picks, cleveland moved up, houston kept their pick while chicago and minnesota lost theirs, nothing out of the ordinary in terms of odds or draft history).

- last but not least, raptors should have gotten first overall as compensation for the 72-game road trip and the league telling us to call up our g-leaguers so that we could fill an 8-man lineup, but it is what it is, highest pick that this front office has ever had (and in a strong-looking draft no less) is nothing to sneeze at ultimately. plus the last two times the raptors had #4 overall they took vince carter and chris bosh respectively, so history's on our side there lol.
 
Stallion

Stallion

Tree Young
is a Tiering Contributoris a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Three-Time Past WCoP Champion
What's the obsession with people already projecting Mobley at 2? I think Jalen Green is not only the better fit stylistically, but I think he's just flat-out better, period.

Don't get me wrong, I think Mobley has superstar potential and is worthy of the #3 pick, but he's also got the highest bust potential of the big 4.
 

DerrickRose

I swear to y'all I felt in my spirit this would be a Chris Paul fucking game.

Christopher Emmanuel Paul getting his revenge on the most traumatic ex team by clinching the NBA Finals spot after years and years of losing in every single round by choking playoff leads is anime storyline shit. Uwu
 
Coronis

Coronis

Impressively round
is a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnus
I’m rooting for the Suns, they’re just the best feel good story this year. If Giannis comes back fully healthy though, I’m very worried for their chances.
 

DerrickRose

(2) Phoenix Suns versus (3) Milwaukee Bucks

This NBA Finals is going to be among the most unique we have seen in quite some time. There’s more talk about injuries. The finalists are full of players who have zero experience at this competitive level including the coaches. It’s also the first finals we’ve had with traditional style of play and line-ups. Ayton and Lopez for example are both old-school drop centers who do most of their work in the paint. The small-market teams and new faces may make for tougher ratings, but for the nerds out there, the excitement is certainly in the unpredictability.

The most significant element of unpredictability in this series is of course related to Giannis’ health status. I believe Giannis’ ability to play 100% in this series is the most important factor in who wins. Giannis is an amazing physical specimen of a player that warps a playoff defense if you don’t have the ability to contain him, and Phoenix doesn’t seem to have that player. Crowder may have been part of that Miami team last year that helped schematically, but individually, Phoenix is clearly overmatched against a healthy Giannis.

During the regular season, Ayton garnered the most minutes on him defensively. Giannis managed to score 80 points in two games and averaged 15.5 free-throw attempts. When we consider the importance of Ayton for Phoenix over the course of a seven game series, this is simply an unacceptable defensive gameplan if you have any hopes of winning against Milwaukee. Foul trouble for Ayton spells a loss. Playing Crowder or a tall forward on Brook could spell a loss. We have yet to see how Ayton performs against a two-time wing MVP who goes downhill. If Giannis is healthy and plays enough games in this series, and Ayton is overwhelmed with this match-up defensively, Monty will have to decide how Phoenix will navigate itself when it comes to both Giannis and Lopez. There’s a lot of questions and concerns I have regarding Ayton’s ability to guard Lopez or Giannis on the perimeter. This may be where the buck stops (pun intended) for them, because every other series before had an injured star that could have potentially warped playoff defenses. Milwaukee would be the first time we actually see their approach to stars who can put pressure on their defense in a way that binds itself toward the star.

On the other side, my biggest concern for Milwaukee is their shooting outside the paint. Milwaukee has gotten to this point in the season primarily through their defense. Budenholzer has given us the best Mr. Magoo coaching impersonation we’ve ever seen by helping the least impressive eastern conference team ever make the NBA Finals. By increasing their possessions in transition, aggressiveness in the paint, rebounding, and overall defense, they’ve been able to squeeze out wins in key moments throughout the playoffs. This has created a huge differential in effective field goal percentage in the paint versus effective field goal percentage outside the paint (60.6% v. 45.2%). Their three-point shooting has had a significant drop from the regular season as well (%38.9 v. 31.1%); likely due to Forbes decreasing value with each round and a missing DiVincenzo.

I believe part of Phoenix’s defensive scheme will include keeping Milwaukee out of transition as much as possible and forcing them to shoot off-the-dribble threes. I don’t think it’s necessarily Milwaukee having bad shooters because they will make open shots fine, but the question is can they make enough threes to keep up with Phoenix if you take away at least two of these: their offensive rebounds, their transition points, and their general paint point attempts. With Chris Paul’s assist to turnover ratio, Milwaukee may see a good drop in transition opportunities, and if Phoenix can score at a consistent enough rate against their defense, Milwaukee won’t find many easy opportunities they depended on to stay ahead throughout the playoffs.

We can essentially see the basic formula of how both teams conceivably win the series. Milwaukee wants to muck things up with their star player’s size and speed, use their overall length and rebounding on defense, and to overpower Phoenix in the paint. Phoenix wants to continue their offensive orchestra from their guards, force Milwaukee to take the ball out of the basket often so they can play from behind the paint and their team defense, and to keep Milwaukee’s rebounding to a minimal.

Both teams have shown the ability to adjust (finally… for Milwaukee), and with them being pretty close to an even match, I figure an intangible has to be given to whichever coach wins the one or two quarters in a game based on an in-game adjustment. Both teams have the defensive and offensive versatility to have an answer for the other team’s potential adjustment in big or small. Milwaukee has more size and length while Phoenix has a coach who is more improvisational. I personally think who you feel has more intangibles is up to what you value more. Personally, I value a coach who can adjust by possession and quarter even if they have less physical advantages. When you have two teams in a rock-paper-scissors scenario of strategy, I believe the advantage goes to the person who can see the patterns first.

As for the actual player match-ups..

Paul/Booker versus Holiday/Middleton is what I’ve noticed is the most talked about. Paul could totally be a dominant force in the Finals just based on his willpower alone or he could struggle against one of the best defensive guards we’ve seen. Booker has proven to be more consistent and efficient than Middleton, but that doesn’t mean they’ll play the same when guarding each other throughout a series. I believe these four players’ overall play and efficiency matter a lot more in the first few games that won’t have Giannis. The play of the players who will have the ball the most in their hands and making decisions against the other team’s defense will decide who wins in my book. I am a bit nervous for Phoenix’s star guards if only because they’ve yet to go against this combination of size and length since the first round. Game 1 will be interesting in who they decide is the weak link in Milwaukee’s defense. Is it Porter? Lopez? Cannington? Because Milwaukee is going to eventually switch and go away from the drop-coverage if they prove unsuccessful in that scheme.

Meanwhile, Phoenix doesn’t exactly have a weak link but relatively speaking, coaches have been aiming at Booker. I have no clue how well Holiday can play offensively against both of Phoenix’s guards, but Middleton is the bellwether for Milwaukee whenever Giannis is out. If Booker’s defense is comparable to Huerter’s and Bogdavnovic’s, then it is going to be a long series. Phoenix has enough wings to force Milwaukee to have more shooters on the floor by helping in the situation that Holiday and Middleton become too much, so I wouldn't be too terribly concerned about Paul and Booker's ability to defend individually at least.

I know it’s uneventful to say “who knows” in a perimeter match-up of four players, but that’s how generally even I see them. Middleton is the lone question mark for me personally, but both pairs have reasons they could succeed, fail, or match the other.

On the frontline, I’ve already detailed how I feel Giannis if healthy will probably have no ideal physical match for himself. Lopez’s rebounding will be something Phoenix hasn’t seen yet outside of Drummond (who rebounded exceptionally well against them still). I think Lopez theoretically can have defensive performances to make Ayton sweat. Lopez is a great positional defender on rolling big men and can be scary if he’s shooting threes with Giannis on the floor.

Overall, that’s another match-up I can’t reasonably pin-down; especially considering other things like foul trouble with Ayton guarding Giannis and Lopez with drop-coverage on mid-range snipers like Paul/Booker. Their time and success on the floor are dependent on their defense against players outside their position. I will say that Lopez has less responsibility going into this which may prove crucial. If Ayton is too busy worrying about perimeter threats like Giannis and Lopez while also trying to be a rim protector, rebound himself, finish plays himself, stay out of foul trouble, and overall maintain the top 10 defense Phoenix has sported these entire playoffs, Lopez has the easier match-up if he can stay on the floor.

Prediction?

Flip a coin. I don't know. It really depends on which intangibles you like better.

Phoenix has:
- A history of faster adjustments
- A history of more consistency and stability
- Home court
- Overall more shooting
- Excel in drop-coverage defenses

Milwaukee has:
- If healthy, the potentially best player in the series
- More size and length
- Have rim protection outside of one player

I feel Phoenix has better marginal advantages in shooting, style, and consistency overall but Milwaukee's size and Giannis could totally nullify much of it. So, bias pick maybe in slightly favoring Phoenix.
 

DerrickRose

Potential adjustments for Bucks in game 2:

So, the main part of the Suns’ success this year has been the ability to beat small and big teams simultaneously. They do this by having two guards who can shoot from the mid-range reliably while having a traditional center who is a talented, athletic roll-man scoring over 70% in assisted field goals. If you switch a big onto the guards, Booker/Paul iso. If you switch a small onto Ayton, Ayton punishes inside. If you do drop-coverage, Booker/Paul will simply go to their spots.

With that being said, I don’t think switching was a bad idea at all for the Bucks in game 1. In fact, that is probably my preference too. Chris Paul is more dangerous zipping the ball around versus daring him to beat you with the toughest shots at age 36, and Booker is actually less dangerous in switches relatively when comparing to him scoring against a drop-coverage scheme. Clippers laid out the playbook basically for how to make this Suns team score only 80 points:

- Keep your best defensive players (Middleton, Giannis, Tucker, Jrue) on one of the other three guys (Booker, Paul, Ayton) as much as possible. Even if you switch, make it harder for them to dictate what match-up they want and at least force them to take more time off the clock and rush the isolation.

- When Lopez or Portis do end up on Paul or Booker, come up higher and force them to drive. Especially Chris Paul. With his old age, he actually prefers to shoot in his spots. Crowd their space, show them different looks, force them to be drivers and do your best not to give them foul points. Paul does not shoot many off the dribble threes, so go under if the screen is near the 3 point line for sure and don’t play him he’s Curry far out.

- Have Jrue hug Paul. This may take away some of his offense, but making somebody like Paul uncomfortable goes a long way against a team that depends on his leadership and orchestrating this much.

- Ayton also can’t dominate the glass the way he did in game 1. Clippers gang-rebounded him in game 5. Bucks may want to consider especially when they go small.

- Speaking of going small, Giannis at center will get serious minutes. He has to make that match-up with Ayton at center look like a mismatch. It hasn’t been for the Suns all playoffs. The problem is, Bucks don’t have enough defense on the wing to make this work even if it is a mismatch. Maybe only have one of Forbes/Cannaughton and just make it harder to target these guys on switches.

As a result, the Suns struggle offensively when the ball sticks in Paul’s or Booker’s hands while trying to navigate mismatches that don’t seem to yield results. If they hit shots over the above switching adjustments, tip your cap.

As for offensive adjustments:

- So, they did try to run as much as they could off misses in game 1, but Suns were ready for it. So now they’ll consider quick action and screens for Holiday/Middleton based on the “wall” the Suns created. Getting Holiday going should be a priority. Get Booker or Paul to use some defensive energy.

- If Giannis is extra aggressive offensively, he needs to try to bait fouls on Ayton to get him off the floor. Or as said before when he’s at center, make that look like a complete mismatch on the other end. Saric is out for the series and their only back-up is Kaminsky. The Suns are not historically great when Kaminsky gets major minutes. Attack hard in those minutes at whoever they decide in the non-Ayton minutes.

- Overall, just try to have better spacing out on the floor. Giannis and Lopez can’t share the floor for so long.

Honestly, there actually aren’t that many offensive adjustments they could make. Their half-court offense isn’t going to win them the series. They win by getting stops, so a better defensive approach will naturally also be an offensive adjustment.
 

DerrickRose

The Bucks are the type of team to start a series slow but progressively get better the longer it goes just because of their size and physicality. They wear opposing teams down not by outshooting you, but out working you in the paint.

The Shaq and Giannis comparisons are being shown for a reason. Giannis is not a perimeter player who dominates the painted area. He's a big man who can simply start from the perimeter. When you look at it that way, he is this generation's Shaq.

So the Bucks just might make this a 7 game series. The non-Ayton minutes are simply tragic. Suns get outrebounded to death and Giannis is just an 18-wheeler rolling downhill. Ayton's fouls will determine how game 4 ends.

I don't know how Monty will adjust to game 3. I do know Booker has to get going at some point. Perhaps we see the decisive and unstoppable Chris Paul/Devin Booker pick-and-roll. I don't quite know. They just need to at least keep Ayton on the floor as much as possible and figure out a decent plan B that doesn't get you you pounded in the paint by Giannis who is 23 of 25 in the restricted area currently in the Finals.
 

DerrickRose

The NBA Finals Game 6… what got us to this point?

In the first two home games for the Suns, Paul and Booker were very dominant offensively. They punished drop-coverage and switches in Game 1 along with Ayton who dominated the glass and his switches. They passed to corner three marksmen in Game 2 when the Bucks tried to stymie the guards’ mid-range shots.

Enter Game 3. Ayton gets in foul trouble, and the non-Ayton minutes for the Suns are a disaster. Bucks slightly change their gameplan to have Holiday more on Paul. Giannis improves but not in simply scoring. He drew fouls on Ayton, shot well from the line, and punished the smaller Suns. In Game 4, even with Ayton on the floor, the Suns couldn’t hack it. Paul shows visible signs of fatigue, injury, or just being bothered by Holiday and having to beat him halfcourt all of his minutes. Booker is amazing but he has effectively played in the Bucks’ hands to shoot tons of contested mid-range shots. Middleton and Giannis come through in the end with a screen and roll combination that was lethal against the Suns.

Then, Game 5: The Bucks’ big three come alive. Holiday, Giannis, and Middleton click on all cylinders. Holiday’s shots finally sink, and the Bucks hit an offensive pace not seen before. Meanwhile, Paul and Booker can no longer create for other guys because the Bucks are daring them to win one-on-one now against... Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis who are playing their switches much, much better than earlier in the series.

Suns need to find a way to get their offensive mojo back. Paul is exhausted and running out of gas as the series goes on and as Holiday is glued to him. Booker on his own is fine but it comes at the cost of ball movement. Who is another guy?

Milwaukee has three who all can technically create and play defense, and they only need two of them to click offensively to win. Paul and Booker aren’t bad defenders but aren’t known on that end as great defensive players. In Game 5, Paul was punished by Middleton in the post repeatedly which increasingly wears him out as well.

When people were saying the Suns got here because of injuries to other teams, this is what we mean, because the Bucks have a healthy big three (technically, they are missing a key injured player STILL). The Suns have had the luxury to bypass teams who could at least match their star pairing of Paul and Booker. But what if they are not only matched, but against two-way stars on the otherside? If Paul is done and Booker is alone, the Suns have no chance.

It’ll be interesting to see what Monty throws out in an elimination game, but I imagine Ayton will at least have to be involved offensively. If they can’t slow down Giannis, they need to at least think about what to do with Middleton and possibly even Holiday. Perhaps find small ways to save Paul’s energy like screening Holiday early, or just having someone else bring the ball up. Get their shooters and role guys moving more, cutting more, and defending at a high level for more steal opportunities. Get Booker to moving around more than he has to force more switches that don’t just involve himself. Truthfully, I don’t think the Bucks have even done all the best possible things they can in this series as far as adjustments go, so you can’t help but favor the Bucks here.
 
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Bananers

Bananers

V
Grats bucks, suns played like shit u deserved it. Will Chris Paul ever be able to win the finals beat Scott Foster? Idk he’s getting old it’s gotta be soon
 
Kanburi

Kanburi

Bucks deserved to win. All-time performance from Giannis. Was really just a couple weeks ago when people were mocking his free throws.

All other small market teams in shambles now that a small market team has won the title. Maybe time to finally admit that they're just poorly managed.
 
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