It's not centrism.. Biden is just likable. He has charisma and natural alpha bravado. That expertise in subliminal communication is more important to voters than policy.
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Serious 2020 Democratic Primary Thread
- Thread starter MikeDawg
- Start date
sure, but thats exactly the type of talk that makes me think no one will hold biden accountable for implementing a progressive agenda, a return to neoliberal obfuscations would be the disaster that could finally deliver a competent authoritarian administration
Again, I agree that all the factors you point to are real factors— but I think you are overweighting their significance, that minds and engagement are changing, and that the final result is going to be far more progressive, and far less business as usual than you are predicting.
There is a reason that Brexit happened, that Corbin is surging, that Mexico elected a leftist, that Macron is faced with a massive populist uprising. And a reason Trump won.
You can’t fool all the people all of the time.
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MikeDawg
Banned deucer.
Yes, much worse. In fact, public opinion of police rose to among the highest in history just a couple years ago, well into the BLM movement. Right now, it's about average.
Like I said, online bubbles aren't an accurate reflection of the vast majority of the country.
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MikeDawg
Banned deucer.
You can Google all of her positive projects if you want to.
But I'm curious, what did she do with weed that ruined people's lives? I don't understand what you're referring to.
I think Biden’s governance will be similar to Andrew Cuomo in New York (the two are very close). Center left with progressive accomplishments but nothing earth shattering. The good thing about that style - it will lock Republicans out of power for quite some time.
We’re at a stage where the American people have no faith in government. Promising things and not delivering will produce greater backlash than smaller progressive victories. Most voters want to see tangible changes in their lives.. not policies that could completely upend their current lifestyle.
This is a 3 step plan where I think Democrats should go if they win 2020.. (If I were elected with razor thin, 50+ VP tiebreaking Senate Majority)
1) Climate Change - immediately rejoin the Paris Accords, re-instate all of Obama-era executive orders / roll-back all of Trump's anti-environment regulation rollbacks.
2) Entrench Democratic Power - this is what Republicans get right and Democrats are clueless. The first major pieces of legislation need to be restoring democracy (which means entrenching the power of the majority of voters which are Democrats).
First, End the Fillibuster - all future legislation will require doing this
Second, Pass H.R.1. - The 116th Congress, headed by the House Democrats passed sweeping legislation restoring voting rights, making election day a federal holiday, and widely expanded voter registration. This basically nullifies Republican voter suppression.
Third, Grant Statehood to DC and Puerto Rico - this likely gives 4 more Democratic Senators
3) Pass Smaller, Meaningful, Kitchen Table Legislation
First, you raise the minimum wage to $15 / hour with an immediate bump to $9 / hour, phased in additional $1 per hour reaching $15 / hour by 2026, indexed to inflation each year after.
Second, you pass equal pay for women and expanded family leave benefits
Third, you restructure the Trump tax law to raise taxes on the wealthy, tax wall-street speculation, cut taxes on the middle class, and lift the cap on FICA (while expanding Social Security Benefits)
Fourth, pass a sweeping funding package for infrastructure capital improvements
Fifth, make right-to-work laws illegal.
Health Care, anti-corruption, and a sweeping New-Deal esque climate package should wait until your second term. Don't touch any of them with a 10 foot pole.
1) Climate Change - immediately rejoin the Paris Accords, re-instate all of Obama-era executive orders / roll-back all of Trump's anti-environment regulation rollbacks.
2) Entrench Democratic Power - this is what Republicans get right and Democrats are clueless. The first major pieces of legislation need to be restoring democracy (which means entrenching the power of the majority of voters which are Democrats).
First, End the Fillibuster - all future legislation will require doing this
Second, Pass H.R.1. - The 116th Congress, headed by the House Democrats passed sweeping legislation restoring voting rights, making election day a federal holiday, and widely expanded voter registration. This basically nullifies Republican voter suppression.
Third, Grant Statehood to DC and Puerto Rico - this likely gives 4 more Democratic Senators
3) Pass Smaller, Meaningful, Kitchen Table Legislation
First, you raise the minimum wage to $15 / hour with an immediate bump to $9 / hour, phased in additional $1 per hour reaching $15 / hour by 2026, indexed to inflation each year after.
Second, you pass equal pay for women and expanded family leave benefits
Third, you restructure the Trump tax law to raise taxes on the wealthy, tax wall-street speculation, cut taxes on the middle class, and lift the cap on FICA (while expanding Social Security Benefits)
Fourth, pass a sweeping funding package for infrastructure capital improvements
Fifth, make right-to-work laws illegal.
Health Care, anti-corruption, and a sweeping New-Deal esque climate package should wait until your second term. Don't touch any of them with a 10 foot pole.
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No, it didn't
https://news.gallup.com/poll/213869/confidence-police-back-historical-average.aspx
Everything after 2010 has been an overall valley in confidence
MikeDawg
Banned deucer.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/196610/americans-respect-police-surges.aspx
In 2016, 93% of people respected police, and 76% greatly respected police. That's practically the same as the peak in 1968.
Even your article notes that confidence has been on the rise since 2015, and that it's now at--their words--a historic average.
"Only two other institutions (the military and small business) of the 15 others measured this year scored higher than the police."
Confidence in the criminal justice system as a whole was low compared to police, but the large disparity between them leads me to believe that people associate criminal justice with judges and prison, not law enforcement officers.
Being an AG is not an inherent liability, especially when you don't conflate the role with being a cop. Most people who think otherwise would have found another dozen reasons to hate her anyway. Outside of those small circles, trying to effect positive change from within the system is actually considered a good social justice strategy, not a cop-out (heh).
tcr you could have spent 30 seconds googling it instead of trying to insult me lol. fell flat last time tootcr said:
irt democrats preferring the ~ lolestablishment ~, you can look up the 2018 results yourself. Progressive candidates were almost universally destroyed in the midterms. Like it or not, moderate and conservative democrats won the house back for us.
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We are very likely to see a market crash at a scale equal to or greater than 2008 and we will have a President in Biden more a creature of Wallstreet than any in modern history.
Respect does not equal public opinion. 2016 was the height of the BLM movement; thousands if not millions of people protested police action nationwide. Is "93 percent good" an accurate representation of public 'opinion'? You can respect someone, or their position, while disagreeing with everything.
This is more evidence of the same. People say all the time that they respect the troops, but not the military's mission. Approval rating of Trump is around 40%; I would certainly theorize that respect for Trump is somewhat higher.
But anyway, yes, the headline I linked says confidence is returning to historical average. Historical average is not good, at just over 55%. I said in my post that every year after 2010 has been lower than 2010. This coincides with the rise of BLM movements, police shooting videos, etc. Just because somebody respects a police officer does not mean that they respect their actions.
You serious? You think people are associating "the system" with jail and judges? Police officers are agents of the criminal justice system. Nobody gets to be exempt from criticism of "the system".
Entertaining this theory, wouldn't that mean that Harris, as an attorney, is MORE integrated with "the system" that people have such low confidence in?
Putting aside actual politics for a moment, one of the primary issues I have with a potential Biden nomination is that it's not going to excite voters. I honestly fear it'll feel a lot like 2016, where a longstanding member of the democratic establishment finally gets their "turn" at the nomination and the base stays home out of disappointment that it's not a more exciting/fresh candidate.
...ok, moment over. Even ignoring the above I wouldn't vote for Biden. Too centrist.
Been liking Liz Warren more and more as of late. Her policy chops are the real deal and she doesn't pull any punches.
...ok, moment over. Even ignoring the above I wouldn't vote for Biden. Too centrist.
Been liking Liz Warren more and more as of late. Her policy chops are the real deal and she doesn't pull any punches.
Stratos
Banned deucer.
How about instead of engaging in some Butter Battle Book power-consolidation shit, we have actual reform to make elections fair. If democrats are convinced that they are the voice of the people being silenced by biased elections, this should be the same thing, no? I see this happening in three parts:
- Districting Reform
- Force congressional districts to be drawn along county lines, except when a county is larger than a single district;
- Force congressional districts to be drawn with the minimum possible perimeter.
- Voting Reform
- Make election day a federal holiday;
- Mandate that all official documents are free to obtain;
- Mandate that voting-eligibility ID can be obtained seven days a week, from at least one place in each county
- Any other reforms to make it easier for one person, one vote, that I'm not thinking of lol.
- Election Reform
- Adopt ranked-choice voting to end the prisoner's dilemma causing our two party hegemony;
- Short of removing the electoral college, which is unrealistic, at least mandate that all states adopt the NE/ME elector system: two electors vote the will of the state at large, and the remaining electors vote the will of each congressional district. Note that this is probably a step backward without districting reform though.
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Splitting districts along county lines runs into a number of logistical issues (for example, my hometown straddles a county line, and I feel one of the goals of redistricting reform should be to avoid splitting up the representation of non-city communities). I've always been attracted to the idea of an independent non-partisan (or more realistically, bipartisan) commission being in charge, with certain guiding principles being codified into law.
I would add to your list of voting reforms that voter registration should be mandatory. I would prefer that voter ID laws be done away with in their entirety, but if they're gonna stick around, increasing their availability is definitely a good idea; I would probably also add that they should probably be free of charge.
Ranked-choice voting is definitely a good idea; barring that (or perhaps in conjunction with that, though I'm not 100% sure how the logistics would work out) assigning electors proportionately rather than winner-take-all is a step in the right direction as well. Given current sentiments, I'm not necessarily sure that elimination of the electoral college is unrealistic, but I don't see it happening within the next 5.5 years, certainly.
THE_IRON_...KENYAN?
Banned deucer.
The Democrats are 100% gonna fuck this election up somehow and lose to Trump again, but thread is still fun speculation.
Just thought Id get that out there just in case anyone thinks that the DNC is capable of putting together a winning hand in 2020 or isnt basically just controlled opposition.
Just thought Id get that out there just in case anyone thinks that the DNC is capable of putting together a winning hand in 2020 or isnt basically just controlled opposition.
I’ve already kinda submitted to this. It’s hard to win against an incumbent, the Dems have no direction or leadership really, and the economy’s going good. Unless the economy really tanks in say, Summer 2020 (and I find a full blown recession extremely unlikely) I think the presidency is a long shot for the Democrats. I fully expect a Trump re-election and gains by the Dems in the house and Senate.
Problem is that the Dems don’t think that... they totally want to rig elections, and both parties are absolutely resolute in preserving a system that protects the duopoly.
If we don’t also cut away at the economic power of the establishment as well, no one will be there to defend or fight for any voting reform.
Don’t disagree that this is the most likely outcome. xD
I think her biggest weakness though is that progressives don’t see her as a fighter— most commentators I follow that massively favored her now have kind of shifted to Tulsi Gabbard as Bernie’s best VP choice because Liz “lacks political courage.”
That said IF at the debates she comes out and smashes Biden TO THE FACE over their bankruptcy bill history all will be forgiven.
Please please please please please Liz if you play nice with that asshole after how he’s treated you before you will lose all face— and if you kick his face in you will be beloved.
I don’t expect her to though.
I know, but she should as a public service.
Clearly you didn’t read H.R.1.
It’s foolish to call a President with a consistent 55% disapproval rating a favorite, especially considering incumbency has been losing statistical advantage each cycle. Partisanship is the biggest determinate of elections. Trump is a slight underdog in 2020.
And so we are supposed to lay down our arms and let trump waltz into the oval office a 2nd time?
I thought you had a better fight in you than this, TIK.
I plan to do my part in 2020, and that includes influencing my group of friends to vote in a way i would. Perhaps we should stop focusing everything on candidates and take a look at our sphere of influence.
MikeDawg
Banned deucer.
Yes, which is part of the reason why "copmala" is such a stupid smear.
Just as an aside, you're still conflating unfavorable with neutral. "Only, 12% of Hispanics, 13% of whites, and 19% of African-Americans have an 'unfavorable' view." There has been very little change in overall opinion over the past few decades.
https://www.cato.org/survey-reports/policing-america#notanticop
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