Bernie is too good to take PAC money? Should he decline the $1 billion Bloomberg has committed to give to the Democratic nominee?
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Serious 2020 Democratic Primary Thread
- Thread starter MikeDawg
- Start date
I think you bring up some decent points when talking about democrats, but there's a few things I think you might have misunderstood-
You're talking about democrats, I'm talking about Americans as a whole specifically the working class and also a lot of whom are independents/nonvoters who feel disenfranchised and have no faith in the political processes of this country.
Also, I'm not basing my opinions off of internet progressives and college age liberals. I am not in college and outside of this one thread and one channel on a discord server, I don't really talk much politics online tbh. I myself am part of the working class and have lived in various areas where I've had contact with many other working class people (Miami, Homestead, Tucson, Orlando) in various areas. Of course, that is just my personal life but I also keep up with polls the best I can especially during this election cycle- polls from all over that interview many different people.
So again, you say the democractic base see people like Pelosi as competent but I'm talking about working class Americans as a whole.
Also, I take a bit of issue even within the democratic base on the percentage of moderates vs progressives when the exit polls out of Iowa and New Hampshire primaries recently both showed that 70% of voters supported Medicare for All, which is to me at least one of the "litmus tests" on whether you're a progressive in the democratic party or not. Of course, I don't think the base is as progressive as we would like it to be but I think the narrative that the base is mostly moderate is misguided as well.
I think that most people in the democratic party, at this point, still see a moderate as electable for taking down Trump (although that's fading as Bernie's momentum grows). However, I don't see these people as all staunchly ideologically moderate. For example, if you look into the cross-tabs of Biden voters many of them have Bernie as a second choice and vice-versa. Voters are not always ideological in their approach, especially when the MSM has been hammering into their head that Bernie is not electable and that [insert centrist here] is the best chance at taking down Trump instead. Precisely because more people see these media outlets as viable than progressives think (like you mentioned earlier), they might support moderates when they themselves aren't necessarily moderate, because their main goal is defeating Trump.
The points you make I think are very clear with (mostly) white, affluent/affluent-ish, educated liberals. They are the audience of MSM reporting in places like WaPo and NYT and CNN and tend to be pretty in tune to this stuff (also seem to be the most in tune with Russia stuff). This seems to translate as well in their shifty support of the candidates. Their vote has been moving the most between Pete, Amy, and Klob. I think your points also ring true somewhat for older working/middle class people as well, who seem to have been shifting between Biden and Bloomberg largely on electability issues. This is all based on trends in polling crosstabs in the recent months for this primary election cycle.
Last I checked, Brianna Joy Gray, Bernie's National Press Secretary, said that the campaign would reject the money if the offer was extended by Bloomberg. Whether he'd spend his money on ads or other efforts to take down Trump anyways is up to him but Bernie wouldn't welcome a superPAC or something like that I think.
My hypothesis holds true yet again; Bernie Sanders' movement is more concerned with winning arguments than elections. There's just no nice way to articulate how incredibly stupid it is to turn down $1 billion worth of campaign resources. Let's not forget that H.R.1., which addresses campaign finance and election reform is collecting dust on Mitch McConnell's desk. This is exactly why the Bernie supremacy movement just has no credibility in the Democratic Party.
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...with a whole 30% of the vote.
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"No credibility" but he's projected to win the most delegates in the primary lulz
edit: AKA, winning the popular vote
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Actually that's not. Our primary system is fucked up. There should be no super delegates and no plurality winners. The way to settle this is easy - the two candidates with the most delegates have a national runoff election. All democratic elections should have a consensus winner. Unless you get 50% +1, you aren't the people's choice.
The winner of the popular vote is literally the one who gets the most votes, by definition. Like Bernie got in Iowa and New Hampshire.
But anyways,
I do agree that our primary system is messed up. There should not be super delegates. Imo, there shouldn't even be delegates though. But I don't think the national runoff is a bad idea, that actually seems like a decent idea. But imo, 1 person, 1 vote popular vote would be the best.
Also, where are you getting 30% number for Bernie from? 538 atm has him at a 40% chance winning a majority (over 50%) and 40% chance of contested convention, in which he would get under 50%. On average, his estimated delegates are in the late 1.6k range which is well over 30%.
The winner of the popular vote is not a consensus winner when there are more than 2 candidates. That's the problem in a lot of liberal "democracies." Take 2016 for example, even though Hillary Clinton won the most votes, she still only won 48.2% of the popular vote. That is not consensus. More people voted for other candidates than her.
The way the Democratic primary is run is a special kind of screwy. Candidates must get at least 15% to net delegates. Because so many candidates are in the race, it is possible for Bernie Sanders with only 25-30% of the vote to be the only one netting delegates in most states. That is exactly what is projected to happen right now. A lot of results will look like Sanders 30%, Biden 16%, Bloomberg 15%, Warren 14%, Klobuchar 13%, Buttigieg 9%, Steyer 3% (Just using this as an example). In this situation, all delegates are split between Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg, with Sanders netting the overwhelming majority yet 70% of the population casting votes for other candidates.
538 is a solid polling aggregator. Unfortunately, this is misinterpreting their model. It's predicting Sanders has a 40% chance of winning most of the delegates, not 40% of the total popular vote. The reason he is even scoring that high is exactly the scenario I outlined.
It really is shocking how incompetent our primary systems are. Even on the Republican side, Trump steamrolled the field with ~40% of the vote. Democracy isn't a difficult concept to grasp. All democratic elections should have a consensus winner. How do we get it so wrong?
I'm not sure why so many of these candidates with no path are planning on sticking around. I guess they're all hoping for that contested convention at this point idk.
Yeah my bad, for some reason I was thinking 30% of the pledged delegates which is why I replied what 538 has on their site with delegates. In terms of popular vote being 30% where are those predictions from? I have only kept up with delegate predictions thus far.
Well in my opinion delegates are inherently undemocratic. 1 person 1 vote ranked choice voting would be a best case scenario. Also no caucuses. Yuck.
They're doing it for clout. (Not really) I don't know what their motivations are, This process is extremely frustrating because no side will be pleased with the result. We saw it play out poorly for the Republicans and it will likely be even worse for the Democrats this cycle. Bernie Sanders with the most votes going into the convention in theory should get the nomination, but there is a clear mathematical case why he shouldn't. Then to let party insiders decide is even worse. With a two-candidate runoff election, you can't dispute who the consensus winner is.
Bernie won BIG!!!!!!!!
Lizzsssss Warren strong 4th.
Congrats to Pete & Biden for being viable
Lizzsssss Warren strong 4th.
Congrats to Pete & Biden for being viable
Attachments
MSNBC freaking out rn lmao
It's just at 4% reporting I think but Bernie's lead is so grand it'll be near impossible to take him down. All they can do to stop him is prevent results from being published and say "well guess no one won!" lmao but even then his lead is just too big to ignore. Nice momentum going into SC. Biden possibly getting 2nd is worrisome though cuz now he will have slightly more wind in his sails going into his strongest state right before super tuesday.
It's just at 4% reporting I think but Bernie's lead is so grand it'll be near impossible to take him down. All they can do to stop him is prevent results from being published and say "well guess no one won!" lmao but even then his lead is just too big to ignore. Nice momentum going into SC. Biden possibly getting 2nd is worrisome though cuz now he will have slightly more wind in his sails going into his strongest state right before super tuesday.
If Bernie scores big here, I'd expect some big wheeling and dealing from the DNC.
Expect at least one high profile drop out and potentially even some collaboration between campaigns. I wanna say Biden/Buttigieg ticket is coming.
DNC will want to make sure Bernie doesn't win SC, so I think Biden (or some ticket including Biden) will stay in, but I'd expect the pressure will be on all the others to drop. Bernie's in an extremely strong position here, and the schedule doesn't give the DNC long to react.
Expect at least one high profile drop out and potentially even some collaboration between campaigns. I wanna say Biden/Buttigieg ticket is coming.
DNC will want to make sure Bernie doesn't win SC, so I think Biden (or some ticket including Biden) will stay in, but I'd expect the pressure will be on all the others to drop. Bernie's in an extremely strong position here, and the schedule doesn't give the DNC long to react.
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Do you think it'll maybe be Klobuchar who drops first? With this really weak showing after her Strong Third tm in New Hampshire there's very clearly not a path for her moving forward especially with her abysmal polling among nonwhite voters.
I don't know how Klobuchar can see a path forward after this. At this point she's playing spoiler on super tuesday.
Won’t matter probably.
Bernie wins the head to head against any of his rivals.
Stats coming out from Nevada—
Bernie won overwhelmingly with Independents, Liberals, less than 45, and PoC yes.
BUT he TIED Biden in 45+
Also:
https://t.co/XTe0bJCNRK?amp=1
NYT reporting Bernie won with Conservatives & Moderates.
Can we say “Unity Candidate”?
Bernie will get a significant portion of the supporters of anyone who drops out— b/c most of these voters prioritize electability; and exactly none of Pete, Amy, Biden, Warren, or Bloomberg are rating higher than Bernie on that metric in the polls consistently. If anything Bernie is increasingly being viewed as the most electable.
This is gonna snow ball.
exactly
the problem w the idea of a mathematical case, i.e "they didn't win 50+1%", against sanders getting nominated is that sanders+warrens votes is a clear progressive consensus and the argument falls apart against the electoral reality
Hey MSNBC, what now?
That debate was crazy!!! Warren surging past Michelle Obama to right below Hillary on the betting market!!!!
No, it doesn’t. Warrens coalition is actually different then Sanders coalition (she has a lot of Clinton female voters). Consensus is exactly that; a candidate must win 50%+1.
Why would you assume Democratic voters won’t vote for Sanders? I saw polling from other Dem candidates saying 97%+ of their voters would back Sanders in the general election.
In the context of a democracy (“majority rules”) how so?
Bernie has all the momentum now so I’d bet his nomination and majority of the delegates is an inevitability at this point. There is no alternative on that stage. Biden is washed up, Bloomberg is pathetic, Warren never reached take off and Buttigieg / Klobuchar are not on any person of color’s radar
democracy doesn't mean "majority rules" and even if it did that still wouldn't make it a consensus because a consensus means a general agreement which is very simply often not present by any stretch of the imagination in a polarized two-party system. had trump gotten a few more % in the last election and ended up with 51% of the vote, would you consider there to be a "consensus" wrt his presidency?
as an aside, the idea that consensus is desirable in democracy is currently heavily debated in the literature. ongoing attempts of left-leaning parties to move toward the center and "reach across the aisle" over the last 3 decades ("third way" politics) are often blamed for the rise of right wing populism, which is perceived as a reaction to the emergence of a political elite that does not appear to disagree on a whole lot of things anymore. this is why it is at least questionable to assume, as most liberal elites seem to do, that "moderates" are more "electable", since the consensus-seeking style of these politicians is exactly the kind of politics that throws fuel on the fire of populism
Democracy quite literally in definition is control organized by the majority through elections. If one lives under a democracy, that is the general agreement. Yes, had trump gotten 50%+1 of the popular vote, he would be a consensus candidate (even to my personal dismay).
As stated a few pages back, moderate candidates do perform better in general elections. However, that is not because they "convert swing voters." The electorate as a whole is more moderate. Most people simply don't have exclusively left-wing or right-wing views. Trump was seen as closer to the center in 2016 than Hillary Clinton, which likely helped put him over the top.
Base mobilization strategy should work for Democrats and Bernie Sanders in 2020, much as it did with Barack Obama in 2012. The Democratic Party simply has more registered voters than Republicans. In theory, it should be Trump trying to move to the center. Sanders likely will have the edge in November.