Sports 2021-22 NBA Season

phoopes

I did it again
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Noticed the thread hadn’t been made yet so I figured I’d do it.

Topics to discuss: Fuck Ben Simmons

There are others but I’m a salty Sixers fan so I’ll let y’all think of the rest
 
I was initially rationalizing kyrie leaving boston for the nets. I putting on a happy face and all that, trying to look on the bright side. But of course I would’ve kept the superstar if he wanted to stay here.

But now? LMAO good riddance you “enlightened” anti-vaxxer.
 
Lost my word document at work that had regular nba regular season predictions. Guess I'll just post it after opening night this year. I'm sure y'all don't strike me as someone to modify predictions over two games.
 
Some predictions:

Playoff Seedings

East

1 Hawks
2 Bucks
3 Sixers
4 Nets
5 Celtics
6 Heat
7 Wizards
8 Bulls

Just miss: Knicks, Pacers, Hornets

West

1 Nuggets
2 Clippers
3 Jazz
4 Warriors
5 Suns
6 Lakers
7 Mavs
8 Blazers

Just miss: Grizz, Wolves

Assorted thoughts:

  • Joel Embiid wins MVP
  • Jalen Green wins ROTY
  • Lakers and Heat sneak in as lower seeds but cause a lot of noise and maybe a few upsets
  • Morant, RJ Barrett and LaMelo all hit stardom but their teams are still a year or two away
  • Hawks steamroll the regular season but still can’t quite break through in the playoffs
  • Ben Simmons ends up in Sacramento
  • Raptors trade Siakim
  • Cavs trade Sexton
  • Bucks make the Finals again out of the East
  • Clippers or Warriors make the Finals out of the West
  • New look Bulls fail to impress
  • Dame stays with the Blazers… for now
  • Suns take a step back
  • Porzingis returns to form but the Mavs still can’t hit the next level
  • Zion’s weight starts to impact his play
  • Wizards have a decent season with the new cast around Beal and use Rui/Deni as trade chips to make upgrades
  • Spurs finish with the NBAs worst record and get the top pick
 
The NBA season begins anew once more along its regular timeline of a Fall start and a Summer finish. Last season’s storyline was riddled with injuries, covid protocols mucking up line-ups, and essentially a compact season a good portion of players not being able to hold up their bodies long enough to sustain efficient play. This season brings a massive coaching change to seven organizations, key players like Ben Simmons and Kyrie Irving missing out on teams who have championship expectations, and an exciting rookie class who excelled in the Summer League. There’s a larger pool of contenders as well as simply competitively good teams. There’s a lot to unravel, and I’m going to begin with the western conference this year.

Los Angeles Lakers
Golden State Warriors
Dallas Mavericks
Utah Jazz
Phoenix Suns
Denver Nuggets


The top dogs of the western conference is pretty stacked this year. Realistically, you can put these in absolutely any order you want. All these teams have an argument for a top seed.

I choose Dallas to be my hottest take off the list to make it here. They have a new coach in Jason Kidd who, while I understand had issues early on in Milwaukee and Brooklyn, has seem to grow from being around Los Angeles Lakers’ staff. He also seems to have a strong relationship with the young generational talent in in Luka Doncic. The pre-season had Doncic posting up more and prioritizing paint points. I factor in a new coach, new style of play, and a possible healthier Porzingis to make them break the west first round barrier they’ve been kept under since they managed to play the same playoff team two years in a row. If this organization can just have everything go right, expect Dallas to have an amazing season no one expects. Except me.

Golden State looks promising, but I gotta stop myself. Thompson is only projected to return around January, and while he had an Achilles tendon injury like Durant who came back in amazing form, Thompson is a different player. Additionally, he re-injured himself before returning from the Achilles. So, if anyone has Golden State being really good this regular season, you have to believe more in the people around Curry and Draymond than hoping Thompson comes in and saves the day. This roster lives and dies by the supporting cast at this rate.

The good news is that I believe in that supporting cast. Jordan Poole somehow looks to be the second coming of Jamal Crawford, Wiseman gets another year under his belt, and Kaminga looked like an incredibly impressive rookie. Then, factor in the fact that Kerr spent the majority of last year trying to develop rookies as opposed to the last month of the season in which they just gave Curry the ball and got the fuck out of the way. This year, they have another training camp and have plans to forego rookie development which should easily thrust them into the playoffs at least. If they are somehow worse than last year outside of major injuries, I’ll be shocked.

Utah doesn’t have too many changes. Their priority should be to get better playing small line-ups or for Gobert NOT become an offensive liability. Gotta see it to believe it, but they have been a good regular season team in the last few years, and the last playoff defeat stung bad. I anticipate a great effort from Mitchell and Gobert, and continued assimilation of Conley in their offense. Don’t expect much unless Rudy Gay is making an impact somehow at the five.

Phoenix shored up their areas of weakness of depth at the five and general lack of rebounding. JaVale McGee, Elfrid Payton, and Shamet are solid additions. For Phoenix to be successful at a revenge tour throughout the regular season from the Finals, we need to see continued internal improvement and success from any of the following: Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton. This team was incredibly balance and well-coached last year. I do not see that as a fluke at all, and do not anticipate them getting worse in any way.

Paul is another year older, so you want to see the younger guys take the next step. Booker and Ayton must carry more games than Paul had to last year. If those guys are better and more impactful, Phoenix can get a top spot.

Denver is likely to have home court once again coming off our first center MVP since Shaq. Even without Murray, Jokic's numbers are actually better. Gordon gets a training camp and more time to build chemistry, Jeff Green is a solid bench addition, and Porter Jr. Is expected to greatly improve after his contract extension. I say this team's ceiling is all about Porter Jr. this year. If he and Jokic are healthy, they should be top four again.

Los Angeles Lakers… I do not have much faith in. Will they make the playoffs? Sure. Will they be a top seed? No guarantee.

Westbrook is my main reason, and it should go without saying. The main argument for Los Angeles' status as a contender rest on what we've said for years now: LeBron and AD are too good and too smart not to figure it out. We've primarily relied on this for year after year since LeBron joined the league, but there will be a time where LeBron is no longer dominant. There will be a time where he just doesn't have it anymore. LeBron slowly but surely is playing less games and getting more injured. AD playing center for extended minutes throughout the regular season when historically he is not conditioned to do so is a stretch too. I mean, he can condition himself that way, but he has still never done it.

Westbrook cannot be the main point guard for this team under no circumstances which confuses me as to why LeBron favored bringing him. Was the point for LeBron to take a backseat at the guard or not? Is Westbrook capable of being an effective player without the ball in his hands?

The team also lacks defense on the perimeter. They have decent shooters like Carmelo and Monk but must trade in accuracy for defense if they're bringing in more above-average defenders. It's not like they have a defender as good as both KCP and Caruso.

I just don't like this roster. It's old. Westbrook is a turnover machine and does not make LeBron's mental labor any easier. AD is probably the brightest spot but is likely to get banged up playing center more in the regular season. The supporting cast are a bunch of one-dimensional specialists. Their regular season is not projected to be a good one by me, and I get sick of the narrative that LeBron can do anything.

Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis Grizzlies
Portland Trailblazers
Minnesota Timberwolves


Minnesota is very interesting. Karl-Anthony Towns has suffered great family losses with covid, and I figure he is likely hardened and focused after the experience. A focused, hardened Towns sounds like a recipe for a breakout season. Minnesota could go places with a strong showing from Towns, an improved Anthony Edwards, and a healthy D'Angelo Russell. Heck, maybe even Beverly being around rubs off on the team.

This core could honestly make the playoffs together. They just need good health and an average defense. Towns by himself can be a stellar offense. I believe the team has the talent to do it; they just need a full healthy season clicking together. I will be very interested in seeing how Towns plays.

Memphis is another team with additions and possible internal improvement. Morant is shooting off-the-dribble threes; not a good percentage, but the attempts on their own are encouraging. Jaren Jackson Jr. Just got his four-year extension, so if he is healthy, that gives this team another bump. I was never particularly high with Adams, but he did do well with Westbrook. Morant is slightly more polished, so I expect them to be good together. Dillon Brooks is a physical guard who can play off ball.

With enough internal improvement from Brooks, Jackson Jr., and Morant, that is a solid core. They are honestly a few years away from being legit in my eyes. They are nowhere near the bottom, they aren't a top threat, but are good enough to improve in the standings.

Portland is a mystery, truly. They haven't had a great regular season for a few years, but why wouldn't they be improved? They have a more fortified frontline assuming Nurkic will be healthy. When Nurkic is healthy and contributing, this team is playoff worthy. It's questionable if players like Zeller and Nance Jr. make the difference they need to.

How much better is Billups more than Stotts? I am not sure if a first-time coach can be all that much better than who you had for years and years with the same meddling results. Maybe Billups can throw out more versatile line-ups defensively. If this team can just find a solid and average defensive identity, stay healthy, and avoid drama, they will make it. Last season they made it in spite of many key injuries.

Los Angeles Clippers will be interesting to see only because they don't have Kawhi. George is probably angling to prove he still has it, and George and this roster if they play pesky small line-ups can still make the playoffs. Now, I don't think anyone should exclusively go off their playoff showing to judge their regular season. Regular season is a grind that is incredibly hard to play small in for long stretches, and any injury to George makes them done for since Kawhi likely will be out all regular season. I don't find them to be a safe bet for the playoffs, but they will still be a good team; however, without the small-ball gimmick that many coaches around the league saw on national TV and likely have a plan for, do they have a plan B if switching everything isn't working? I have them on the tail end of the play-in group only because I feel as talented as they are, they are depending much more on isolation, hot shooting, and the newness of their switch-everything gimmick. They also have a history of shitting the bed randomly in regular season games. Something about this team just makes me hesitant to trust them if their best player is not there all year.

New Orleans Pelicans
Sacremento Kings
San Antonio Spurs


New Orleans is at it again… Zion comes back to camp with a mystery surgery and injury, they hire a new coach, trade for Valančiūnas, and signed DeVonte’ Graham. I’ve been trying to make a case for this team to make the playoffs, but it’s a hard case to make compared to the teams I ranked above them. Zion seems to have injuries and surgeries every year. It is truly making it difficult to keep him on the floor. If he has improved defensively as well as Ingram, they can go places, but I have my doubts on where they go without a better Zion. The real question Zion must face is: Can you play the center? Can you defend the rim? If you can’t, who the heck are you as a player? DeVonte’ Graham could have a breakout year, but that can’t be the only positive thing for your team. I suppose this team will ebb and flow with how well Ingram carries, how good of a coach Willie Green is in establishing a winning culture, and if Zion figures out his niche in the NBA. I don’t think these things all come together this year unfortunately.

Sacremento has promise with its three-headed talented guards in Fox, Haliburton, and Mitchel. Sacremento had an above average offensive rating last year but ranked last defensive rating. Is a rookie defensive guard enough to take them to the playoffs? Doubtful. I feel Fox and Hield had more than enough internal development and have been surrounded by enough okay-ish veterans to make pushes, but it has yet to happen. I am once again bearish on Sacremento. Perhaps Mitchel starts a defensive culture and identity worthy of a playoff team in the western conference, but that is a big wish.

San Antonio lacks oomph, and I know that’s weird to say in today’s day and age. I think the last couple of years are starting to show that Popovich can’t be your solution to everything. The playoff streak for Popovich is long dead, they have no star, and they just now seem to be a meddling, young team. Now that DeRozan is also gone, more of the possessions will have to be up to Derrick White and Dejounte Murray. Are they capable big minute ballhandlers under the great Popovich? I mean, I figure if DeRozan couldn’t take this team to the playoffs, I’m certainly not hedging my bets on these guys even with Popovich coaching. I mean, that’s kinda what it would have to take. A healthy Collins, Young, and Poeltl is a decent start for at least an average defense. I don’t know if you can be average and get in the playoffs anymore. Popovich even throughout that playoff streak still had at least one all-star veteran player on those teams. The only way I see San Antonio sneaking in is if one of these guards have a breakout season. This team is young and just trying to develop something.

Now for the eastern conference!

Milwaukee Bucks
Brooklyn Nets


Milwaukee and Brooklyn are equally top favorites from the East. Giannis comes back with a new jumpshot in preseason. They lost PJ Tucker and thus their ability to play Giannis at the five for longer stretches with four shooters. I think that can be mended with a trade or veteran minimum later in the season. I feel this team really grew together in the last playoffs and it will benefit their overall structure and comradery in a way we may not have seen in a long time with a team. They still have the same core players who literally struggled game after game in the playoffs for years. They all have scars together now. So, if they are healthy (and they were barely healthy in the playoffs honestly), they should still maintain their top position in the East.

Brooklyn on the other hand seems primed to at least be better than they were last season even with Kyrie missing. They still signed Patty Mills, Cam Thomas looks AMAZING, and Paul Millsap is a solid veteran for the frontline. Durant and Harden are more than enough to make the playoffs in the East much less a top spot. Anticipate Harden to have a better year possibly due to Kyrie’s absence. He is embracing the point guard role and will likely be much healthier this time around. We haven’t seen much of Harden healthy and not actually carrying the offensive load for many stretches. That’s really the best argument you can have for a Brooklyn improvement even without Kyrie. Adding Kyrie is icing at this point. Their weakness still is in their size and rebounding on the frontline but at least it’s not overall depth.

Miami Heat
Philadelphia 76ers


Miami is internally strong and versatile. They just lack the obvious flair of other teams. Butler, Bam, and Lowry is a great start. The signings of recent champions in Lowry, Morris, and Tucker tells me that culturally and emotionally, they are all in. Their young guys in Robinson and Herro are extremely talented and are still projected to get better. This team mirrors your prototypical championship veteran team managed by Pat Riley.

Trading Lowry for Dragic sounds even to me. This team’s potential in the regular season to me is all about Bam’s improvement. Was 2020 in the bubble a fluke or is this guy really for real? I place them a notch below Milwaukee and Brooklyn. I want to see this team prove that 2020 in the bubble wasn’t a fluke, and they just aren’t some perpetually under seeded team that flames out every other year. If Bam can hit another level, I actually like them coming out of the east in the playoffs.

Philadelphia has issues. I’m not even just referring to Ben Simmons. For one, without Ben Simmons, they effectively don’t have a trustworthy point guard. Maxey is a solid young player, but do you trust him to manage ballhandling duties over the course of a regular season? This team even with Simmons was turnover prone. The second issue is that this roster really didn’t… get all that better. Maybe some internal improvement from their younger players is beneficial, but until they get something for Simmons, I don’t expect this team to be as close to the top as they were in last year’s regular season.

I genuinely feel even an MVP-level Embiid wouldn’t be able to get them a top spot. They’ll make the playoffs okay I hope, but the loss of Simmons really cuts their guard play and perimeter defense. If they can manage that, still have a healthy Embiid, and play a great defense without Simmons, they shouldn’t fall too far, but I would still expect them to fall as it stands now. We will see how valuable Simmons was to this team.

Atlanta Hawks
Boston Celtics
Chicago Bulls


Atlanta had a strong showing in the playoffs, and their roster is loaded with young talent. McMillan is a veteran coach and Young *should* improve somewhat. My only concern however is with the new referee rule changes, how does that affect Young’s offense? He will undoubtedly take a hit. They should also receive a boost in depth that wasn’t seen in the playoffs. I think this team should still hover around 3-6. It seems these guys are coming together and finally have an identity around a veteran coach. Young just needs to successfully adapt to the rule change which might take some time. Otherwise, they have all the tools to be successful: a young star and veteran coach who seems to get along, athleticism, defensive swingmen, and shooting.

Boston is a bit of a mystery to me right now. Last year’s regular season and playoffs felt like a flaming out. Boston just hasn’t had it for a couple of years now. Was that due to coaching? Injuries? Depth? How good of a coach is Udoka? This team could either surprise us or struggle to get a guaranteed playoff spot again.

Tatum and Brown getting better is a plus, but it hasn’t translated to the overall team yet. Perhaps with a new coach, a solid back-up point guard, and a returning veteran in Horford, they can re-establish some decent success. In which case that would set them at least to get maybe a 5 or 6. Possible play-in range at their lowest. Williams, aka the time lord, is a great x-factor and his development will be interesting as a big man. If he improves, Boston should be fine to make the playoffs.

Chicago is hard to figure out. For one thing, it’s the East. You don’t necessarily have to be *that* good to get in the playoffs. However, the defensive combination of DeRozan and Vucevic is atrocious and it’s unlikely they get to a team defense rating above 20th.

They can make up for it with their defensive players on the perimeter; is that a good formula, though? Are Caruso and Lonzo enough to make up for Vucevic and DeRozan? I consider Chicago a likely play-in team. Some people have them above that range which is totally possible, but I’m bearish on Lonzo and Caruso making that much of an impact. My opinion on where I rank the bulls before the season starts has more to do with how I view the field of the East than Chicago themselves. Perhaps a great enough offense can make you a top 5 seed. They also certainly have a lot of pressure with Zach Lavine being a free agent next year. Meh, I’ll give ‘em a chance to hang around this tier, but I certainly haven’t placed them as overall better team than anyone mentioned thus far.

New York Knicks
Toronto Raptors
Indiana Pacers
Washington Wizards


I’m currently a bit lower on New York although I probably shouldn’t be. A healthy Kemba is probably all this team needs to stay where they were last year. This team had an incredible defense in the regular season, but their offense was so heavily dependent on Randle. I don’t anticipate Randle getting significantly better because in all likelihood, his offense last season was likely a fluke if you just compare the drastic difference in percentage from round 1 in the playoffs to the regular season.

All Thibs would need to do is keep the defense rolling, keep Kemba healthy, and internally improve the younger players. Thibs is notorious for being bad with younger players, however. Maybe RJ Hampton becomes an improved shooter? If Kemba is unhealthy or is not dynamic at all, expect New York to struggle to get in.

Toronto has nice wing depth. Moving to Tampa really put a damper on the organization last season. Combine it with a horrible start, and it would have been a miracle if they clawed their way back into the ranks.

Siakim isn’t going to start playing early, so it’s still possible for them to get on a slow start. Anunoby looked new and improved in the preseason, Barnes is an impressive rookie of the year candidate, and Nurse is still a fantastic coach. VanVleet will get his first crack at being a point guard without Lowry; hopefully he starts over Dragic who is, in my eyes, as good as Lowry although in different ways. VanVleet I’ve loved for years and totally believe in his capabilities as a starter. Their offense will struggle, so Siakim is needed if they want to make it in. He just must find some type of offensive rhythm as a focal point. Expect them to be on the hinges of play-in territory.

Indiana has the best coaching change in the league after their mutiny last season. They have all the reason to improve and even be grouped with the tier above this. Carlisle is an excellent x’s and o’s coach who always gets the best out of his group; especially if they are humble guys. The coaching and roster symmetry couldn’t be any better. The question is: how good is the roster?

This roster sure has some defensive chops. Brogdon, Turner (if they decide to keep him), Craig, and Sabonis are solid defenders. A healthy Levert, Brogdon and Turner isn’t a bad offense. They can surely make it if one of the teams above them has an injury or underperforms. Overall, nothing really strikes me about this team as far as them being a shoo-in outside of their coach, but they almost made it with dysfunction anyhow. I imagine with Carlisle; they’ll be in the 6-10 mix undoubtedly.

Washington… I can see it, but I am not pushing for them. The great wildcard is how good Kuzma can be without LeBron and AD. He did show some spark when he was drafted a few years back, but his developed was effectively stunted. Dinwiddie is a great add and has been featured in a lot of decent playoff teams. They have great perimeter defenders in Hachimura and KCP.

It can work with a good system. Remember, it took Westbrook for them to make the play-in last year those last few games, any they don’t look like a team who can stomach a key injury. I think if you are a believer in the core of Beal, Kuzma, and Dinwiddie, you’d probably have them at least fighting for a play-in spot. Otherwise, I’ll pass.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Charlottle Hornets


Cleveland won’t make the playoffs, y’all… but they look fun! They need to figure out their frontline because they have a surplus. They need to trade Kevin Love for something. Markkanen is great offensively and probably found the right team who can back him up with a physical center. Rubio is a sneaky good signing because they finally have a capable veteran who might pass on things to help development of Sexton. They should improve, and maybe even threaten a play-in, but hold your horses.

LaMelo is a highlight reel in Charlotte, but unless Hayward can actually get on the floor and make an impact, I’m not penciling them to do anything. They have a great young core but still feel slightly behind the rest of the pack. If they have any success, it will hinge on LaMelo who I honestly feel is not yet at that level. He could prove me and wrong and totally could be, but the most they can manage is probably like last year’s results.

Most Valuable Player
: It’s tough to choose this year. I’ve wavered between Doncic, Antetokounmpo, and Curry. Since Dallas is my hot take, if I predict them to jump, I think Doncic has the narrative advantage. Curry would probably be a close second.

Most Improved Player: Jordan Poole is the obvious choice. Kevin Porter can certainly win this as well. I hear the noise about Michael Porter Jr. but he’d have to make a steep jump since he’s miles ahead of the other candidates in talent as it is.

Sixth Man of the Year: Derrick Rose. Maybe Jordan Clarkson repeats.

Coach of the Year: Jason Kidd, but this is hard too. I only chose Jason Kidd because this usually goes to a coaching change that ends up being impactful, and Dallas has the best chance of doing that in my eyes. I could also see Steve Nash, Udoka, and Spoelstra.

Rookie of the Year: I favor Jalen Green. He has the greenlight down in Houston to do whatever he likes, he is more of a highlight reel, and seems to be the media’s favorite already. Cade Cunningham is a complete player who could be a generational talent, so I don’t look down on that pick as well. Really it comes down to who you think can get the most opportunity to flourish, because this rookie class is pretty crowded with talent.

Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green. Golden State will be this year, and a healthy Green makes this easy for me to pick over Gobert and Simmons. Jrue Holiday would honestly be my second choice and is a really cool sleeper.
 
Some predictions:

Playoff Seedings

East

1 Hawks
2 Bucks
3 Sixers
4 Nets
5 Celtics
6 Heat
7 Wizards
8 Bulls

Just miss: Knicks, Pacers, Hornets

West

1 Nuggets
2 Clippers
3 Jazz
4 Warriors
5 Suns
6 Lakers
7 Mavs
8 Blazers

Just miss: Grizz, Wolves

Assorted thoughts:

  • Joel Embiid wins MVP
  • Jalen Green wins ROTY
  • Lakers and Heat sneak in as lower seeds but cause a lot of noise and maybe a few upsets
  • Morant, RJ Barrett and LaMelo all hit stardom but their teams are still a year or two away
  • Hawks steamroll the regular season but still can’t quite break through in the playoffs
  • Ben Simmons ends up in Sacramento
  • Raptors trade Siakim
  • Cavs trade Sexton
  • Bucks make the Finals again out of the East
  • Clippers or Warriors make the Finals out of the West
  • New look Bulls fail to impress
  • Dame stays with the Blazers… for now
  • Suns take a step back
  • Porzingis returns to form but the Mavs still can’t hit the next level
  • Zion’s weight starts to impact his play
  • Wizards have a decent season with the new cast around Beal and use Rui/Deni as trade chips to make upgrades
  • Spurs finish with the NBAs worst record and get the top pick
Those are some bold predictions my guy with all due respect i dont think the hawks nor the nuggets will be a #1 seed. The hawks havent improved a ton since last season imo other than they are a young team but so are the bulls and heat.

nuggets have no bench basically.
 
i still have GS winning west, i dont think any team up in east now will win it. Nets with bucks getting 4th maybe. sixers and 1 rando team gets home court. sportsbetting3.com still has bucks 3rd faves!
 
Last edited:
Response to Celtics' Assorted thoughts about halfway through the season:

  • Joel Embiid wins MVP
    • It's Steph now
  • Jalen Green wins ROTY
    • It's a two-way race between Giddey and Barnes
  • Lakers and Heat sneak in as lower seeds but cause a lot of noise and maybe a few upsets
    • Lakers look more like a team sneaking into the lottery
  • Morant, RJ Barrett and LaMelo all hit stardom but their teams are still a year or two away
    • Morant is very much ere. Barrett is still streaky, but his recent few games have been on point. LaMelo is coming along nicely.
  • Hawks steamroll the regular season but still can’t quite break through in the playoffs
    • 16-20 W-L isn't steamrolling anyone, but that's mostly b/c of COVID
  • Ben Simmons ends up in Sacramento
    • Ben Simmons ended up getting married. Whether the new wife will like Sacramento is TBD
  • Raptors trade Siakim
    • Doesn't feel like it RN
  • Cavs trade Sexton
    • Given that Cavs just lost Rubio, def. gonna keep Sexton for most if not rest of the season.
  • Bucks make the Finals again out of the East
    • Hard to say.
  • Clippers or Warriors make the Finals out of the West
    • Warriors definitely have a claim here even with Curry's recent shooting slump
  • New look Bulls fail to impress
    • New-look Bulls sit atop the Eastern conference
  • Dame stays with the Blazers… for now
    • This is true.
  • Suns take a step back
    • A step back to the Golden State Warriors, but it seems like the Lakers were the team that took many steps back.
  • Porzingis returns to form but the Mavs still can’t hit the next level
    • This is very true.
  • Zion’s weight starts to impact his play
    • Moreso "Zion's weight prevents him from playing"
  • Wizards have a decent season with the new cast around Beal and use Rui/Deni as trade chips to make upgrades
    • So this is an interesting point. The Wizards are putting together a pretty fun season so far; however, I feel like neither Rui nor Advija will be traded. From what a friend told me, Wizards like to keep international picks around even if they don't contribute much on the court because they're great international marketing tools (esp. Rui in Japan).
  • Spurs finish with the NBAs worst record and get the top pick
    • This is a bold claim even back at the start of the season when both the Pistons and the Magic exist.
 

phoopes

I did it again
is a Site Content Manager Alumnusis a Senior Staff Member Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnus
Yooooooooo vintage James Harden last night
I saw this and was like "yeah go Sixers I guess?" and then I looked at the date... oof

anyway, play-ins are happening y'all. What are your playoff takes? All I really have to offer right now is that if the Sixers lose first round to the Raptors and James Harden gets that fat contract extension I will finally begin to question Darryl Morey
 

Camden

Hey, it's me!
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Taking a look back at Celtic's prediction now that we're into the playoffs...



Joel Embiid wins MVP
  • Nah, but he had a good shot for a while. It's gotta be Jokic now.
Jalen Green wins ROTY
  • Solid 4th place behind the carousel of Mobley, Barnes and Cunningham.
Lakers and Heat sneak in as lower seeds but cause a lot of noise and maybe a few upsets
  • Heat fought hard and managed top seed in the East while the Lakers failed to find chemistry and couldn't even make a Play-In spot.
Morant, RJ Barrett and LaMelo all hit stardom but their teams are still a year or two away
  • All three had great seasons (Ja especially) and the Grizzlies are here and a major threat now, but Charlotte does need more time and the Knicks are bums.
Hawks steamroll the regular season but still can’t quite break through in the playoffs
  • Hawks took a huge step back and are now fighting for a chance to get clobbered by the Heat, so I guess you were half-right.
Ben Simmons ends up in Sacramento
  • Nope, went to Brooklyn, and all he got out of it was a herniated disk and a shitty lambskin suit.
Raptors trade Siakim
  • Nope, and after the season he just had, they better fuckin not.
Cavs trade Sexton
  • Nah, and it's probably best to wait and see how he heals up first
Bucks make the Finals again out of the East
  • Obviously don't know this one yet but there is potential. East is tough to call this year.
Clippers or Warriors make the Finals out of the West
  • Can't see the Clippers happening. Warriors? Possibly, but the Suns are a menace.
New look Bulls fail to impress
  • They looked great at first but then fell apart over time. They're looking like a first round exit now.
Dame stays with the Blazers… for now
  • Yep! It would be cool to see him be a lifer, but that would involve spending more time in...Portland (ugh). Best of luck for his recovery though.
Suns take a step back
  • Nope, and with a franchise-record 64 wins, they're the favourites to win it all
Porzingis returns to form but the Mavs still can’t hit the next level
  • He was actually performing a bit worse than last season until he was traded to Washington, where he proceeded to play much better, albeit on a much worse team. As for the Mavs, they have the best chance of making the second round since their championship season!
Zion’s weight starts to impact his play
  • His weight took him out the whole damn season. There are still rumours persisting that he might hop in during playoffs. Doubt.
Wizards have a decent season with the new cast around Beal and use Rui/Deni as trade chips to make upgrades
  • Beal played 40 games and looked less impressive before needing surgery. Wizards struggled and Beal might be on his way out. This team's gonna need a lot more time I think.
Spurs finish with the NBAs worst record and get the top pick
  • Nope, fuckers snuck themselves into the Play-In because of how shitty the Lakers are. Oh well, they lost to the Pelicans anyway.
 
(4) Philadelphia Sixers versus (5) Toronto Raptors

To me, this is the most interesting first round series, and I am quite surprised at the amount of people taking Toronto for the upset. I figured Philadelphia would have inspired more people to at least make it to the second round of the eastern conference with Harden.

Philadelphia is going into this series with a lot of disadvantages I can’t ignore. The most obvious being Thybulle. He's not fully vaccinated and is therefore ineligible to play in Toronto. Philadelphia is not a very athletic team, and Thybulle is one of the few athletes they have. Their only other wing player who may have defensive chops is Tyrese Maxie, but he’s significantly under-sized. The other problem this presents is that as necessary as it is for a guy like Thybulle to be in the series in order to guard at least one perimeter player for Toronto (they have multiple guys who can score off the dribble or attack the rim), Thybulle can sometimes jam up Philadelphia’s offense with his lack of perimeter shooting.

Thybulle’s ability to force turnovers and make open shots is a good indicator on where Philadelphia stands in any form of winning unless they plan to slow down the likes of Trent Jr, Siakam, and Barnes all at the same time. Even VanVleet has a chance of going off although he’s regressed since the all-star break; but he performs pretty well in the playoffs historically regardless.

So, let’s go over… that’s already four potential dudes who can score and defend on both ends pretty decently. Even with Thybulle, guys like Green, Harden, Maxie, and Niang are going to have to prove their worth individually on the defensive end. Otherwise, Toronto may not have that tough of a time scoring in the half-court unless Embiid is just all over the place… which, as we know, isn’t a good thing for a defense over the course of a series dating back to last year versus Atlanta.

You know what else doesn’t help? Philadelphia has bad transition defense. Toronto lives off transition opportunities and have some of the best players who can score in the open court. Another key to decide this series will be free throws. If Embiid and Harden can get to the line enough, they can keep Toronto in the half-court and force them to score at least with Embiid starting from under the free-throw line. If they don’t get as many calls? Toronto is likely shoving it down their throats over and over taking advantage of their lack of athleticism.

Then, you have the fact that Philadelphia is a poor rebounding team. Yes, they have Embiid, but outside of him, no one else consistently rebounds as well. With the number of guys who can shoot off the dribble, Doc is going to have to make a choice in whether to concede those or risk more offensive rebounds which by the way, is one of the Toronto’s strengths.

Toronto even carries a coaching advantage. Nurse is always a hard out in the playoffs just by how unorthodox he is not just game to game, but quarter to quarter. He will literally run 5 different defenses in a quarter just to surprise you. He’s also not afraid to adjust. Doc on the other hand is very rigid and slow to adjust and has a poor history of conceding large series leads due to this. Even if Doc lead the series 3-1, I have no confidence in his ability to at least out coach Nurse. If Philadelphia wins this series, it will be more so based on the performance of Embiid and Harden.

Overall, Toronto carries too many advantages for me to consider Philadelphia the favorite. They have the more talented top two, and I could totally eat my words if they prove to be too much. It’s just hard to conceive Harden succeeding four out of seven times when I haven’t seen him perform well consistently in a long time. He will be up against the highest number of athletic, long wingmen he's ever seen. Philadelphia is going to have to go through Embiid to win this one, and even on his own, I simply think this team lacks the depth to really make it happen.

Philadelphia wins if: Embiid is unstoppable and averaging either 30 points or double-digit assists. Harden is getting to the line and is a major playmaker. Harris, Maxie, Thybulle, and the rest of the supporting cast are making their open shots and defending worth a damn when they can.

Toronto wins if: They’re killing Philadelphia on the glass, running up and down the court, making shots off the dribble and defending without fouling. Nurse’s unorthodox coaching style stymies Doc.

Toronto in six.

(4) Dallas Mavericks versus (5) Utah Jazz


Luka’s status makes this match-up murky to predict, so I will have to go into this with the thinking that Dallas is mostly going to go in with either a hampered Luka or a Luka-less Dallas team.

I genuinely feel with a healthy Luka, Utah is slightly overmatched. There is no single individual match-up to make Luka feel bothered at all if their best perimeter defenders are O’Neal and House, so if Luka is anywhere near healthy, I feel he will have far better control of the pace in these games than even Mitchell. Reason being is that Utah’s best strength is paint protection, but Luka does the least damage in the paint. That is all to say of course... this is only true if Luka is healthy.

My problem with Utah this go-round isn’t about Luka, however. It’s the simple fact that they still cannot succeed in playing small teams. Rudy Gay overall has been a failed experiment. If Gobert gets played off the floor once Dallas goes small even without Luka, Utah’s only answer will be… Rudy Gay?

So, then it begs the question: How well can Dallas play offensively without Luka? Dinwiddie will have to perform his best Luka impression, and if the past playoff performances are any indication, he’s okay. Is okay enough to beat this Utah defense? Because unlike Luka, we can’t say his mid-range and perimeter shooting is enough to carry you against a near-elite playoff team. I’d have to see it to believe it.

However, it is Utah we’re talking about, and they were taken down by the likes of Reggie Jackson last season. It is totally feasible that Dinwiddie and Brunson can win you a game or two based on their ability to attack Utah’s perimeter guys.

Without a healthy Luka however, Mitchell is likely the best player on the floor now, and he’s much better than Dinwiddie and Brunson combined most likely. Utah should be favored under the assumption that Luka will not be the same. Utah has enough chops defensively with Gobert and offensive firepower through Donovan to beat a Dallas team powered by Dinwiddie, Brunson, and hot/cold three-point shooters; however, it would not surprise me if Dinwiddie and Brunson somehow had a coming out party like Terance Mann and Reggie Jackson.

Dallas wins if: Dallas is succeeding in switching and playing small consistently. Utah’s perimeter defenders can’t contain the combined attack of Luka, Dinwiddie, and Brunson. Dallas is winning the three-point shooting battle.

Utah wins if: Donovan is proving too much individually. Dallas is a shell of itself without Luka’s best. Gobert manages to stay on the floor and make an impact even against Dallas’ small line-ups. Rudy Gay proves his worth. Utah’s perimeter defenders are putting up a fight and finding ways to make shots against a switching defense.

Utah in six.

(2) Memphis Grizzlies versus (7) Minnesota Timberwolves


The two youngest, most talented teams face-off in the first round. Ja Morant is stated to have some injury concerns, but I’m personally not too worried about it because Memphis has proven to be strong without him. I think I can feel good about their chances whether he is 100% or misses time.

The first thing that stands out about this series to me is rebounding. Memphis is the best offensive rebounding team, and Minnesota is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams. Town’s ability to stay on the floor is going to be crucial in this series, and it’s sad to say that he’s quite foul prone. Memphis with their physical bigs as well as physical guards are going to put so much pressure on the boards against Minnesota, and the thing about rebounding is that it’s one of the best predictors of who can control the pace. So, this disadvantage is already decisive enough to slightly tip it in Memphis’ favor.

The other notable thing to think about in this series is three-point shooting. Minnesota through the four regular season games made a combined 25 plus threes compared to Memphis, and they split the wins. If Minnesota wants to stand a chance in the series, they need to be more prolific from three compared to Memphis because when Memphis has the board advantage and the three-point advantage, they’ll be unstoppable. Threes are one of the best ways to counter their potential possession advantage. If Minnesota can find some consistent offense that nets them three-pointers at a decent rate, they’ll stay in most games.

Russell, Edwards, Towns, and Beasley absolutely must make their perimeter shots; but even if they make their shots, they still must guard Memphis on the other end. My feeling is Memphis will make not more threes, but enough to make their offensive rebounding advantage more distinct. Also, Minnesota’s defense has fallen off from time to time throughout the year. I feel they must play almost too perfect defensively to really make this upset happen.

Jackson Jr./Towns match-up will be most interesting. No idea how that goes. Two very different big men, but I feel Jackson Jr. has the body and length to make it challenging for Towns more often than not.

Overall, when it comes to two young teams, and one has a rebounding edge, home court advantage, better record, and team comradery, I gotta hand it to Memphis.

Memphis wins if: They beat Minnesota on the glass, make enough threes, and just become too physical for Minnesota. Jackson Jr. is too physical for Towns.

Minnesota wins if: They are bombing from three, Memphis’ defense can’t contain their perimeter shooting, and their rebounding edge was minimized. Towns manages to stay on the floor and effective against Jackson Jr.

Memphis in six.

(2) Boston Celtics versus (7) Brooklyn Nets


I think this series will most likely be very even and will be one of the longest.

Durant and Irving are amazing together and nearly impossible to stop, but this version of Brooklyn will be particularly vulnerable. Last year even with Durant on his own, they had a better roster. Now, they have defensively challenged guards and Drummond. They don’t have a lot of options other than playing Durant and Irving massive minutes. Which, at least for Irving, shouldn’t be a problem considering he has the freshest legs in the league.

Brooklyn can win this series, but they wouldn’t win it in five or maybe even six. The longer it goes on, the more Durant I feel will tire out because he also is a key defender in their best line-ups. Meanwhile, Boston has a more complete team, capable defenders, passers, screeners, and rebounders. They are built to go the distance just fine.

My concerns for Boston are pretty much about their bad clutch statistics and the lack of Robin Williams. If most of the games are close, it’s hard to bet against Brooklyn. Though if Durant is fatigued, it may just stay even. Then, with Williams out, your defense is dependent much more on Horford and Theis. I’m not saying these guys are absolute cakewalks, but Boston did lose a major part of its overall defense. There is a world where Horford and Theis just don’t cut it, and Brooklyn’s offense is enough to put them above.

I’m going to put a little bit of trust in Boston’s schemes, though. Even with those guys anchoring the back, their defense and rebounding still can’t be as bad as Brooklyn’s, and over the course of seven games, Boston has enough to edge out due to Brooklyn’s lack of depth and defense.

Boston wins if: Durant is fatigued, Brooklyn’s defense is that much worse, and Horford and Theis hold up okay. Boston’s perimeter guys stretch out Brooklyn’s lack of perimeter depth offensively and defensively.

Brooklyn wins if: Durant and Irving are too magical, Horford and Theis are unplayable, and they win the relevant clutch games.

Boston in seven

(3) Golden State Warriors versus (6) Denver Nuggets


It’s truly hard to come up with a scenario where Denver wins this outside of Curry not being able to go whatsoever.

Golden State’s strength and weaknesses play well into the match-up overall.

- Denver is among the worst five teams in forcing turnovers. Golden State turns it over a lot.
- Denver is among the worst free-throwing shooting teams in attempts and percentage. Golden State fouls a lot.
- Denver is among the worst teams turning the ball over. Golden State feasts on turnovers.

The absolute only advantage Denver has in this series is the size and rebounding of Jokic, but there is no way one single center can make this an even match-up. Guess who is backing him up? The worst possible center match-up for Golden State: Demarcus Cousins.

Denver’s surrounding cast this time around is also very… limited. Golden State’s supporting cast has proven to be much more dangerous and flexible. We may have not seen Green, Curry, and Thompson play together in the playoffs (discounting Durant years) since 2016, but even if they have aged-off, their supporting cast in Poole, Looney, and Wiggins should be enough to make up any difference of decreased potency those three have together. Kerr can run a lot of things around Poole, Curry, and Thompson if he always involves Jokic, and so if Jokic is playing both ends this intensely and Golden State is scoring this way, Denver will always have an uphill battle with their best player on the floor.

Denver might steal one with just rebounding and maybe punishing Green inside, but I conceive a series win for Golden State even if Jokic puts up monster numbers.

Golden State wins if: Poole, Curry, and Thompson are dangerous guards taking advantage of Jokic’s footspeed on the perimeter. Golden State’s advantages forcing turnovers and taking advantage of turnovers proves too much of possession advantage. Denver’s surrounding cast can’t help Jokic enough.

Denver wins if: Jokic is literally Godzilla.

Golden State in six.

(3) Milwaukee Bucks versus (6) Chicago Bulls


No.

Milwaukee Bucks in five.
 
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I have never really considered myself a basketball fan and despite living in Boston couldn't even name you 2 Celtics players before yesterday, but I put the game on during the 3rd when the Celtics were up by 12 or something and watched them choke away the lead to the Nets. I had no idea I was watching a playoff game but became extremely invested and stayed glued to the screen during the entirety of the 4th as it eventually became a 1 point game. When Irving hit the 3 with like 40 seconds left I assumed it was over, but god damn what an insane and perfectly executed ending to the game.
 
(1) Miami Heat versus (4) Philadelphia Sixers
The biggest contrast between these two teams to me is depth which is a decisive advantage for Miami. They have more shooters, defenders, veterans, and all-around just more two-way players. They may lack the star power of a combined Harden and Embiid, but they have a talented enough core in Butler, Adebayo, and even Oladipo to stand with Philadelphia.

Butler hasn’t shot the best all regular season and even in the first round. His mid-range has been bad, and three-point shooting has been streaky. So, he’s relied heavily on scoring at the rim. Miami’s offense has been shaky at times during the regular season. Their only true reliable scoring threats are Butler, Herro, and sometimes Duncan. Adebayo is a decent scorer but with Embiid as his man, I don’t expect him to have big offensive games. So, that leaves Miami to try to get their points through stops or Butler/Herro/Duncan heroics. Who knows, maybe Oladipo or a role-player could get hot, but if Miami wants to come out on top, it’s more important they figure out how to guard Harden and Embiid without giving them free throws. Miami is bottom five in personal fouls per game, so this could be an uphill climb for them.

As for Philadelphia, Embiid versus Adebayo will be intriguing; especially considering he has a torn ligament in his right thumb. If Embiid can be aggressive enough to minimize Adebayo in the series, that’ll give Philadelphia a serious edge even if he doesn’t score too much. Also, defensively, if he’s able to keep Butler shooting mid-range and out, that also significantly limits Miami offensively. That just leaves the apparent drop-coverage issue he faces when it comes to guards who can shoot off the dribble: Herro, Duncan, and sometimes Straus and Lowry. Harden is the other part of this equation on the perimeter, and he can certainly go match-up hunting against Herro and Duncan which Miami absolutely needs on the floor to have a decent offense. The question for Philadelphia is, how will Miami’s depth and physicality affect them?

Both teams have ways to guard and attack each other. I’m earnestly split on the pick here as there’s just no real indicator on how well Embiid can play with his injury. Then, I consider Miami’s offense can sometimes be a joke in the face a big man protecting the rim like Embiid. Also, Rivers vs Spoelstra is a always classic dating back to Miami versus Boston days of old.

Edit: Embiid is unhealthy and Miami wins I guess. It won't be close without his peak.

Miami wins if: Duncan, Herro, and Miami’s shooters are finding ways to make shots and not get killed by Harden, Tobias, or Maxey on the perimeter. Miami is generating turnovers and defensive stops at a good enough rate to score in the paint. Miami’s depth shows through.

Philadelphia wins if: Adebayo is too integral to Miami and is in constant foul trouble. Butler is either in constant foul trouble or can’t score at the rim. Embiid and Harden screen & roll is largely successful to the point where depth doesn’t matter. Miami’s can’t generate offense.

Miami in six

(2) Boston Celtics versus (3) Milwaukee Bucks


Milwaukee will be without Middleton, which significantly impacts their ability to challenge this Boston defense. Boston switches and rotates better than anyone, and Middleton was the only true shot creator on this team. What’s the plan now, Budenholzer? Will Giannis just try to steamroll three or four frontline guys? Is Holidae dependable enough to score against a defense like this? Boston has very little weak links for Milwaukee to attack when we remove Giannis from the equation. Oh, will Middleton be missed considering he has a history of killing Boston over the years… So, their next best bet here is to probably see what these role guys can do. Will Milwaukee try to play that insanely big line-up of Giannis, Portis, and Lopez? Shooting could be shaky there, but it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Meanwhile for Boston, they simply look like the best team in the NBA right now. If Tatum can find a way to score consistently against Holidae, it’s pretty much over. I don’t know if he can, but that is Milwaukee’s only real capable defender on the perimeter right without Middleton. If that wasn’t enough, you still have the likes of Jalen waiting in the seems even if he has some hamstring concerns. I think the only way Boston may concede significantly to Milwaukee is through Giannis. Giannis could potentially put so much pressure and physicality on their defenders, but that’s a lot of defenders. I won’t count Giannis out in carrying this Milwaukee team on his back enough to beat a team like this, but it’s hard to visualize it.

I feel comfortable saying Boston is more likely to win this series. Both teams have so many different ways they can pressure and attack each other, but Middleton was a significant piece of Milwaukee’s flexibility. I don’t trust Holidae to be able to guard Tatum/Jalen and then maintain his own offense while likely being guarded by Marcus Smart, the current defensive player of the year. Those two guys against each other should be interesting but if it’s a wash, all that’s left is Giannis to see what he can come up with single-handledly, and I don’t know if he can.

Boston wins if: They build so many walls with all their defenders and fouls making Giannis work very hard on his own. Holidae versus Smart is a wash, and every other Milwaukee player is just not able to generate anything. Passing is stifled due to Boston’s switching, and Tatum/Jalen have decent enough games to carry them.

Milwaukee wins if: Holidae goes crazy anyway and is indeed superman in point guard form. Giannis just generates so many fouls and easy scoring opportunities against Boston that it doesn’t even matter. Some Boston roleplayer like Portis or Lopez finds a way to score.

Boston in six games.

(1) Phoenix Suns versus (4) Dallas Mavericks


This was a doozy to think about.

First thing I’ll note: Phoenix’s weaknesses are rebounding and fouling. Dallas isn’t particularly strong in offensive rebounding or getting to the line.

Dallas’ strengths defensively are focused on forcing mid-range shots. Phoenix prefers that.

So, scheme wise, since these teams play pretty similarly but in different ways, it will likely come down individual match-ups during match-up hunting and the variability of three-point shooting since I feel Phoenix kinda has the leverage of playing to their preferred strengths in this one more.

Dallas’ three-point shooting actually hasn’t been that great. They’ve struggled throughout the regular season and even in some games in round 1. Phoenix has better individual defenders and defensive schemes. Of course, Luka is one of the scariest guys to go against in the playoffs in my opinion so for all I know, this does not matter at all, but from a team perspective? Phoenix has the tools to slow down Dallas at least.

Does Dallas have any tools against Phoenix? Luka will likely match-up hunt. I suspect it will be Booker, followed by Paul. He will do whatever it takes to switch Bridges off him, so Booker and Paul will surely be tested defensively this series.

I’m also curious to see how Ayton defends in the screen and roll involving Luka. Ayton is a solid guy on the perimeter, but how well can he hold up on traps? Drop-coverage?

This series will come down to who can get their preferred match-ups better, shoot better, and be the most opportunistic. They play similarly but Phoenix has the more rigid, well-constructed offensive scheme. That can be trusted over Dallas’ more free-flowing, heliocentric offense around Luka.

Phoenix wins if: Paul, Booker and Ayton hold up okay defensively with Luka. Dallas can’t shoot as well as Phoenix from long-distance. Phoenix is successful in match-up hunting… which, I’m not entirely sure who that could be even looking at Dallas’ roster.

Dallas wins if: Paul and Booker get worn down by Luka targeting them, Dallas’ dribble-drives and spacing becomes an issue for Ayton. Luka is too much to handle and breaks through Phoenix’s system.

Phoenix in six.

(3) Golden State Warriors versus (2) Memphis Grizzlies


With the amount of experience and veterans sitting on Golden State, it's hard to see them losing to a team like Memphis who has been so underwhelming thus far. How much of it was Minnesota? I think Memphis has enough flaws for Golden State to take advantage of.

Despite the possible physical and match-up advantages Memphis may have, I still feel Golden State is the favorite. Morant has been disappointing defensively and it'll be a nightmare for him to chase around Curry, Klay or Poole. Jackson Jr. is the other talented half of Memphis. How does hold up? He's very athletic long, but tends to be foul-prone.

I used to think Memphis was the match-up nightmare team for Golden State but since then, it's hard to envision a team this... green take them down when healthy. Perhaps I'm underestimating Memphis' athleticism and cohesion. If their depth and athleticism is overwhelming enough, it won't matter how more experienced Golden State is, but they could definitely figure out a way in seven games.

Golden State wins if: Morant is torched and targeted, Jackson Jr. can't make much of a defensive impact, Memphis is still green and easily outwitted through experience.

Memphis wins if: their athleticism and range is too much, Morant is too much individual for any Golden State perimeter defender, Jackson Jr. manages to stunt Golden State's offense.

Golden State in six
 
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Sijih

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None of my predictions are going to be as intelligent, as coherent, or as long as derrickrose's, but I feel like I could still give it a shot. I genuinely thought that the Nets could beat the Celtics though, so what do I know. My east picks are going to be slightly less misinformed than my west picks.

Phoenix (what a weird word) vs Dallas - Phoenix in 7

I don't think that there's a readily apparent way for either team to shut down the other on the defensive end, however I also don't think that either team has a readily apparent way to get an easy win in the paint. It's probably just going to be a long range battle of Doncic vs Booker/Paul, and I have to believe that even with the hamstring injury Phoenix's Booker/Paul plan is going to work out better than forcing Doncic to make a miracle happen 4 times.

GSW vs Memphis - Golden state in 5

Back in 2016 GSW was running Barnes/Bogut/Curry/Thompson/Green. Now they're running Pool/Wiggins/Curry/Thompson/Green. On paper this lineup is even more dangerous offensively than the 2016 one, and even though it's probably weaker defensively I think that Golden state will still be decent enough on the other end with Green + Thompson. Curry also seems to have kicked his weird shooting yips that he's been having this season.
Anyways, with the golden state juggernaut firing back up I don't think that the Grizzlies will be good enough to make it out. Golden State has all the playoff experience they don't and Kerr can probably outcoach Jenkins. So, with Warriors looking like they'll cruise to 30 points every quarter, the onus is on the Grizzlies for Ja Morant and Jackson Jr to go above and beyond, which is probably too much to ask.

Miami vs Philly - Miami in 5
I'm giving Miami 5 games because injured Embiid + semi-washed Harden can probably make one game happen. Embiid's specific ligament tear is supposed to make it incredibly painful to grip the ball tightly, and Harden having problems decelerating like he once did means that there's no way he can pick up the slack in Embiid's absence.
I'm incredibly frustrated that Embiid got injured, and I'm not even a 76ers fan. I would have predicted differently if he was healthy, but he isn't and I honestly think that Philadelphia should just accept the fact that they're screwed and tell Embiid to rest to mitigate the chance of permanent damage. At least doc won't be able to choke a 3-0 lead; they won't go up 3-0.

Bucks vs Boston - Celtics in 6
Really looking forwards to this series. Obviously Middleton being hurt is stupid and severely affects the chances of winning, but I believe that the other Milwaukee players are overlooked, and that Giannis is so good at making space for the offense with his drives that the role players will be given a chance to shine from the arc. For what it's worth, Holiday Allen and Portis all have better 3 point percentages than Middleton, and even though that's obviously a cherry picked stat which doesn't represent shot creation the offense still might be be a real threat.
I still went with the Celtics because their defense is so disciplined that my whole shot creation hypothetical might just fall apart, and because just Giannis and Holiday (2 guys) probably can't stop the 3 man offensive lineup of Smart/Brown/Tatum. On top of this, if you let Giannis guard Tatum, which is the only way to stop him from going crazy, then Horford might be able to get it going and that would probably spell the end of the Bucks.
 

phoopes

I did it again
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this isn't a predictions post, just a general comment on the state of officiating:

I hate to be one of those people that's like, "ugh, basketball is too soft" but like... today's flagrant 2 on Draymond was stupid. I can see the flagrant 1 for sure, don't get me wrong, but a 2 is too much. In general, I feel like every time it goes to a review and I look at it and say "common foul" it ends up being a flagrant 1, and every time I say "flagrant 1" it ends up being a flagrant 2. I guess at this point I'm just bad at calling how the officials are going to call it. I just don't think I agree on the definition of what "unnecessary and excessive" is.
 

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