NOC 2d3 Mafia - Postgame (Mafia Win)

i got really lucky btw

i have some money in my roth ira i forgot to invest that i had put in september of last year

i only just remembered about it friday after nyse hours, and put in a trade for market open tomorrow to buy some indeces

cancelling the flying fuck out of that request
 

CaffeineBoost

You've got no chutzpah!
is a Community Contributor
The mood:

Haruno:

Haruno's posts have been limited but this is just what Haruno does. Haruno's vote on Laurel is understandableish but still lacks explanation. The clincher for my read on Haruno though is this exchange:
though tbf, panic station or the idle slot seems like another fine lynch
Why PS and not the other active members?
not willing to go for blazade atm. Don't think anyone has been really too active? Mostly you, tommie and celever.
This exchange... is pants. Terrible. I ask Haruno a question and they basically just dodge it. I've had a look at Haruno's two previous games and I'm not sure this Haruno lines up with that Haruno.
I think Haruno could be a fine vote for today.
Scum Lean

Hal:
This slot reeks. Not of scum, it just stinks in general. I don't have to explain why lack of activity + claiming you can't post until EoD2 + voting Duskfall but refusing to elaborate is just a terrible look for him... but this just makes him a policy.
The only thing I can reasonably use to determine Hal's alignment is this:
I really, genuinely think Tommy is a good vote here but voting him on my second post in thread is admittedly terrible optics
I don't even know what to make of this. Wait for later to re-evaluate.
Null

Laurel:
Another strange slot which I'm not too sure about after re-evaluation. I've had an interaction with Laurel and that makes up for nearly 100% of his activity. Laurel is acting like his usual scummy villager self... but I don't feel comfortable leaning on this read since he's been wanting scum for so fucking long now that everyone else knows... so maybe he'd just try to act uninterested in a game where he rolls scum. Idk.
There are some things I'd like to point out though:

scummy ass vote by celever to hop on a 1 person wagon who has alrdy acknowledged im VT and is trolling now
I hadn't acknowledged shit. I just didn't get a bad initial reaction.
Wait. Shouldn’t Cel know that I’m conf VT if he was also a VT -__-
I don't like this post. Laurel trying to clear himself as VT by insinuating that Celever isn't a VT if Cel doesn't think Laurel's a VT is bad for so many reasons.
I want to see more content from Laurel before I solidify a read on him... this won't happen.
Null but it's a very bad Null

Blazade:
I want to get Blazade's opinion on the more recent developments before I get a proper read on him, but so far he's been... fine.
Yeah still not much going on I guess

Boring angleshooting with the VT thing, some meta discussions which have potential but are still a bit weaker at this stage when people have played a bunch

vote Haruno
No, I don't really "go with the flow" in these things. One of my biggest pet peeves in a NOC is when people sheep each other cause townies not making their own decisions basically wastes the slot.

If I get a solid read I'll explain it and push it. Even if not, I'll take a side in an important conflict anyway to analyze the motivations of people on a wagon. This isn't a role heavy setup so I can't do as much to mechanically help solve things out, and I'm not really one to trust meta reads, so keeping track of important stuff and not getting distracted by fluff is most important to me.

I've been in a few games that have tried to no lynch d1 and it's usually a bad idea. Given the tepid nature of the conversations so far this is starting to resemble those games, which isn't a good sign.

I actually agree that Celever's day has been a little lackluster but I kind of brushed it off as personality. I figure scum is probably waiting around for something to happen, and I'm more likely to value any amount of activity as towny at this point (even though that's also a pretty weak tell).

unvote
These two posts contain some okay content, but I wanna know what the logic was behind the Haruno vote. Blazade can you answer this? Also do let us know what you think about recent activity.
Town Lean

Duskfall:
Another fun and interesting slot.
isn't he usually not VT in these cases
laurel doesn't care about winning as town he only plays to try get mafia alignment
I think angles are useless if it's two nai things. I'm not in the business of making up stuff for the sake of it! (usually) (sometimes)
laurel is probably town but not for the reason he thinks which is a bit tilting
no reads yet really I hope hal plays

laurel prob town
Dusk's first major piece of content is to TL/WeakTR Laurel. I originally looked at this and thought "Hmm yes, this is content". I don't think Dusk defending Laurel like this is a good thing.
I think panic station is maybe town too
I get nothing from this currently.
vote apricity
hes not helping town
Okay I want to know the proper reason behind this vote. I get that Hal and Tommy are best buds and have weird reads on each other but to me this looks like someone gunning for an easy ML. Combining this with the Laurel defence makes me question Dusk's motivations. Why defend Laurel and why vote Hal?
scum!Dusk has contradictory goals with Laurel and Hal given these posts. Both are shoe-ins for PoE atm and scum!Dusk would be deciding to take advantage of this with Hal but for some reason not with Laurel. This makes me consider the idea of scum!Dusk => scum!Hal OR scum!Laurel. If Laurel is scum, coming into get them into the towncore while trying to ML Hal makes sense. scum!Hal would make less sense but I would never rule out the possibility that scum!Hal and scum!Dusk have decided to troll this game.
town!Dusk may just think Hal's bad and Laurel's good. I also think town!Dusk knows better than to vote Hal here? I want to know more about what Duskfall98 thinks. This could help me greatly in ascertaining what the fuck is going on here.
Null

Celever:
I've just slept for 17 hours because the one time I give myself a night out (on Wednesday) I catch something nasty. Hopefully it's not covid, I am double jabbed.

Granted I've read this thread in bed while sick but I think it's p disingenuous to say I'm the only one to have provided no real content, even more so to lump me in with active players. I think I've been asleep for more of this day phase than I've been awake for it for. I don't have reads on anyone at the moment because no one's giving readable content. Panic would be the strongest town lean, Haruno's looking towny too, but literally every other player is NAI to me besides the obligatory early town lean to Caff for trying his hardest to generate content.

So what's special about me I'd rather not get witch hunted lol
IDK vibes, Panic is contributing more than anyone else and making reads out of nothing, I kinda autotownlean people who go against the grain and Haruno did that (though it's possible Haruno just scumleans activity given wikimaf, which makes it more NAI) and you're trying to generate content from other people. It's as level 1 as reads get because nothing's happened.

I'm down to ask for an extension. I still disagree I'm over the activity benchmark but if I am that's rather indicting.
Nothing of interest until these posts, where Celever states a town lean on Haruno and Panic.
OK going back I'm not sure how this post when UTR. I't sprob the longest post in this thread so far and kinda screams towny. Maybe everyone else was also reading it in bed after sleeping for 17 hours and coughing.

But reads update Blaz feels town. CaffeineBoost Panic Station what do you think of this post and why didn't you generate anything out of it in your time here in this empty, quiet room
Especially considering you said you were struggling to read him here CaffeineBoost, you also bumped Blaz out of this category in the time between this reads list and now when Blaz posted a couple times and I didn't, yet I remained there
Honestly this is interesting to me bc one of the things I find towny about it is that Blaz is considering personality in reading people he doesn't have experience with. It's shows he's not looking for pushes and is being solvier than that.

That you took that balanced viewpoint from Blaz and used it for a p shoddy push doesn't necessarily look good, but I don't want to fall into the trap of scumleaning the one person actually posting lol
etc.
Celever grills me for my opinion (or seemingly lack thereof) on Blazade. The questioning gives me the feeling that Celever was trying to build an actual case on me, actually pressuring me, and overall makes me believe Celever is towny.
Because this game sucks I'm gonna elect not to have a NAI / neutral option. Everyone's being sorted somewhere. Let's get moving.

Townread
Blazade - His posts are very consistent with each other. He skimmed Bigvivor and is yielding more conclusive reads from it than Panic, and there's a towny level of uncertainty leading to him criticising his own reads and reasoning to solve the game better. Interestingly Tommy hasn't noted or responded to him using meta in the same way as he did Panic. The biggest mark against him is acc that he's going completely under the radar and other players are ignoring him, but that's not necessarily his fault and is only relevant if there's scum in Caff / Tommy / Panic prob.

Townlean
Gummy - I like #168 it reads as trying to trap Blaz, which when failed leads to a TR in #188 which is valid. That's um, it. Mild townlean. Like butter chicken mild. He's been getting pressured a lot and hasn't done anything in response which tonally is town but is inconclusive. That said, please acc do something too ty.

Caff - He's being a chaotic boyo but tryharding with minimal content in-thread and that would result in being a chaotic boyo. It's another reasonably mild townlean tbqh I find a lot of his posts NAI but the conglomeration of it all is a bit towny

Tommy - Shutting Laurel out of the PoE feels like bad scum play in a game where a Laurel apathy vote feels very feasible down the line. That's about the only thing that gets him in townlean. I don't like the game theory being used in lieu of reads but he also did that very early in the game and hasn't really been here since. Why is Hal your vote in more detail Duskfall98


Scumlean
Haruno - Entered with a gut read that they later state they always have meaning it's basically RVS. One of v few people to mention Blaz saying they townread them which is plus points, but that's the only plus point. Would like to see more, including a game-specific scumread. Also the one to say "the idle slot" that stuck in my mind, who did you mean by that Haruno

Panic - OK having actually backlogged the thread Panic has seemed v unconfrontational and standoffish. The only person he's really pressured so far has been the low hanging Gummy and that wasn't in response to anything it was just to get him to post in the first place. A lot of posts have flown by that Caff has responded to and he's kinda just brushed off, and earlier on he was sorta livetweeting his solving process in order to get brownie points for it. His vibes were strong but don't stack up so well in a backlog IMO. The lack of conclusions actually feel somewhat unsolvy and kinda reminds me of Eli in Bigvivor tbh

Policyable
Hal - In a game of this size policying D1 is a bad option and I don't really wanna do it. Might have to good faith Hal contributing later on.
Laurel - See above. Townleaning Laurel for ditching the game makes no sense (Whydon in Bigvivor anyone). If these two don't come back then we might have already lost, town would have to unite p heavily against scum very quickly to hit plurality on wagons if we ml today. Laurel's a better policy than Hal bc Hal might come and contribute whereas Laurel probably doesn't. Also every game I've ever played with vanillas says "you are a vanilla townie" in the Role PM him trying to clear himself via that isn't necessarily scummy but is v bad.


------------------------------------

Vote Panic who's scum bestie your vote's still on Gummy, is he scum?

Making a reads list without neutral in a game like this has caused me psychological harm.
Celever rescinds his town reads/leans and puts them both in the Scum Lean category. Does scum ever do this? I don't think so... that said:
If these two don't come back then we might have already lost, town would have to unite p heavily against scum very quickly to hit plurality on wagons if we ml today.
Perspective slip?

Town Read

Panic Station:
One question, CaffeineBoost : chaos?
So. I had a little read back of PS's previous games and in one game he said something along the lines of having a confident read in me because I like to cause chaos. He was scum in that game.
This isn't a slip by any means, just an interesting parallel I could draw. I think it's NAI really since I reckon this is genuinely his read on me... but the fact that this has happened again is noteworthy.
Don't tell me not to do my job.
This post is what put PS in my towncore initially. This implies PS was actually reading Bigvivor. Idt scum!PS thinks to say this as idt they'd be able to fake this sort of reaction. I also don't think scum!PS actually bothers to do that but PS may actually be tryharding as scum.
and the realization that

okay, you;ve given me two paths to take here.

one, I deflate and flounder like my D1s of yore

two, I start asking for MU databases because I can't be the only one here who played a game in 2021, right?
Perspective slip?

Having ISO'd PS, I found a lot of question asking and BGB prodding... but not much analysis... but not much on where PS stands in this game. The only thing I could really find is a post on Tommy & Hal being quiet.

Panic Station Could you please provide a full reads list? I have no real idea where you stand on this game.

Null

BlueGummyBear:
First, an explanation of where I'm at w/ the confirmation angle. BGB confirmed in PM's before the thread was posted if their account is to be believed and if my maths is correct. This immediately makes me angleshoot BGB as town since I think scum!BGB would be too busy in scumchat to do anything about confirmation. Cool? Cool.
1. A lot of the discussions are stuff I don't think I care too much about or can relate to. But I think Caffeine and Laurel could be town at this point.

2. I Dmed cause I wasn't sure if we were supposed to post in the main thread.
I can see Blazade as townie
BGB has provided some non-committal reads on Blazade, Laurel, and myself. Idk what to make of this yet... but I don't quite agree with Celever on his point about trying to bait Blazade. I'd go and check some BGB meta to see if BGB is like this as town but for now I'll stick w/ my original angle.

Town Lean
 
My feeling is this game is very generic.

town probably has 3 VT and 3 PR. I’ll guess theres 3 mafia, one of them is a hooker. If there is only 2 mafia it’ll be like hooker + jailkeeper.

the deadline is terrible and we should get a 6 hour extension please
 

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