Headlines “Politics” [read the OP before posting]

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Myzozoa

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There is no way in hell self-proclaimed “socialist” Bernie Sanders would have won Florida.
imo:

the people who were scared away from sanders being a socialist were also susceptible to attacks on biden for being a socialist, this stuff is meaningless. biden can't defend himself from these attacks because they aren't based on any evidence, so the smear sticks in ppl's minds or it doesn't. but sanders can actually deliver a message that explains his position and possibly assuages people's fears because he isn't afraid of being labelled a socialist. the people who are scared of socialism even to the extent of being against obamacare aren't going to care if the democratic candidate is really a socialist, they just have a easily manipulable fear response that candidates like Biden seem to have little answer for besides making moves that alienate the base and do nothing to expand it. look at miami-dade, cubans were scared because they thought biden was a socialist, the label does not matter the way you suggest it does, biden was just as fallable in this regard.
 
imo:

the people who were scared away from sanders being a socialist were also susceptible to attacks on biden for being a socialist, this stuff is meaningless. biden can't defend himself from these attacks because they aren't based on any evidence, so the smear sticks in ppl's minds or it doesn't. but sanders can actually deliver a message that explains his position and possibly assuages people's fears because he isn't afraid of being labelled a socialist. the people who are scared of socialism even to the extent of being against obamacare aren't going to care if the democratic candidate is really a socialist, they just have a easily manipulable fear response that candidates like Biden seem to have little answer for besides making moves that alienate the base and do nothing to expand it.
Socialism doesn’t play in Miami-Dade County. It’s a pipe dream, dude. Bernie wasn’t the nominee (thank god) and Biden will likely be the next President. It will be a Pyrrhic victory but we will take it to get that fascist fuck out of the White House.
 

ManOfMany

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I think saying Biden is just as fallible to socialism smears is an exaggeration, but your point is fair.

I see a path forward for socialism on a national level if it is reframed with American pull-yourself-up-by-the-bootstraps kind of values. Something similar to how Andrew Yang framed the discussion on UBI. It's not exactly the same but see how he appealed strongly to some conservative and even Libertarian types. Americans as of now don't want to be told to rely on the government but they do want the benefits of social welfare policies
 

Shrug

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at least we can recognize the success of appealing to the traumas of miami cubans. weird how people hog-fed sixty years of steroidal ideology on how they were entitled to own slaves on sugar plantations cannot accurately analyze political events.
 

Oglemi

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Trump voters are either racists + misogynists or extremely fucking delusional as far as I'm concerned. How he's managed to make so many people support him is a genuine mystery to me and I just can't fathom any half decent or rational person wanting to vote for him.
It's not Trump, it's single issue voters. Anti-abortion and pro-gun rights. People who put these two things into the very center of their being will never vote for the other guy. And this is a /lot/ of people, more than what's apparent from any polling can suggest.
 

Bughouse

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itt: tons of people with super hot takes about how wrong the polls were, when the national polling average was ~8 and the final polling result once everything is in should be around 4. That's a pretty normal polling error, and even if it's in the same direction as the 2016 error, that alone is not enough to establish a trend. It's still only 2 elections and extrapolating too much from that is bad statistics. In the 08 and 12 elections I believe Obama was the beneficiary of polling errors that favored him.

That said, just like 2016, in 2020 some state polling however was much more accurate than others. This doesn't mean that polling as a whole is bad, pointless, biased, etc. There will be plenty to dig into from a statistical point of view, once all the votes are in, on whether anything really went wrong and if so why. It is currently too early for those takes though.

538 literally was writing articles explaining how Biden's lead appeared to be large enough to survive even a 2016 size polling error or one somewhat larger. That seems to be more or less the outcome.
 
Well of course Bernie is better than those candidates and large amounts of the working class really took took to his and authenticity (which establishment Dems crucially lack). But that doesn't really change the fact that a ton of people take one look at him and dismiss him as a communist, certainly a lot more people than do so Biden. Running on a platform of lifting up the lower classes and tackling wealth inequality vs Biden's running on a platform of returning to normalcy, yeah clearly Sanders has a better platform. We know that. Lots of people just want a return to normalcy though, and Bernie lost the primary by some sizable margins so I don't know what to say
What evidence do you have that the opinion of "But that doesn't really change the fact that a ton of people take one look at him and dismiss him as a communist, certainly a lot more people than do so Biden." would have translated into Bernie losing this election compared to Biden other than a feeling about it?
To be clear I'm not disputing that more people prob see Bernie as radical and communist or whatever than Biden, but I don't think that that fact automatically disqualifies him especially considering he did really well with obama/trump voters in the primary, would have still had dems who just wanted trump out of the office supporting him, and would have had actual enthusiasm from the left and independent voters.
 
Michigan appears to be pretty close to decided. 99% reported and Biden leads by about 40k. Which leaves Biden a few paths to victory. If he just holds Nevada he'll win. Alternatively PA has 1 million votes left to count and Georgia / North Carolina are each within a couple tens of thousands of flipping.

Or Biden can't flip anything and Trump pulls ahead of Biden's tiny 8k lead in Nevada. Then we get 4 more years of Trump.

I hate this game.
 
I don't see Nevada going to Trump, the vast majority of votes that are unaccounted for are from the heavily Democratic Clark County. Whether Arizona holds through the 16% left to report will be the real test.
 
This is kind of an aside but I get so weirded out by laypeople who seem to put so much time and thought into how to predict the results of elections and stuff. Like I get it if you're an actual strategist or whatever but for randos it just seems like such an empty use of one's energy that could be put towards like... way more useful things
 
Georgia is still in play. The remaining votes are all absentee from metro Atlanta, 5-1 Biden margin.

Biden and PA Dems se confident about Pennsylvania for the same reason. All the votes outstanding are Philly and Pittsburgh metro. Biden is winning 4-1 and 5-1 in those returns.

I’d like to remind again that a ton of votes in blue states and cities are still uncounted. Biden is already ahead by 3 million (2%) in the popular vote. Expect that lead to swell in the next few days. This was to be expected and probably won’t end up being any national polling error (state polls on the other hand are a mixed bag).
 
This is kind of an aside but I get so weirded out by laypeople who seem to put so much time and thought into how to predict the results of elections and stuff. Like I get it if you're an actual strategist or whatever but for randos it just seems like such an empty use of one's energy that could be put towards like... way more useful things
Maybe instead of spending empty energy on getting weirded out you could put it towards more useful things?
 

Ropalme1914

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ya I mean I'm not trying to talk shit about it I just find it weird and don't understand why it's so common/popular to treat politics as like a fantasy football thing
Politics are huge, and especially on the US, it'll affect the entire world, not just their own country. Being able to predict results are way bigger than you think, and that include supposed randoms (also, some people just like to do that too, even as a hobby, nothing wrong with that)
 
Like the best way I can put it is, imagine we had a coronavirus thread, and a good chunk of the posts were like "hey everyone, here's my prediction for how many deaths this will cause." And like, not even tying that to any sort of policy that the person advocates like masks vs no masks or whatever, just purely "Because it interests me, I wanted to see how accurately I could predict the number of covid deaths. Therefore I did a lot of research so I could get the most accurate prediction possible."

I mean that would be really weird right? I think most people would see that as weird or even callous in a way? But with elections it is seen as normal. Idk I find that interesting. I don't understand why one of those things would be considered weird and the other would be considered normal
 
Like the best way I can put it is, imagine we had a coronavirus thread, and a good chunk of the posts were like "hey everyone, here's my prediction for how many deaths this will cause." And like, not even tying that to any sort of policy that the person advocates like masks vs no masks or whatever, just purely "Because it interests me, I wanted to see how accurately I could predict the number of covid deaths. Therefore I did a lot of research so I could get the most accurate prediction possible."

I mean that would be really weird right? I think most people would see that as weird or even callous in a way? But with elections it is seen as normal. Idk I find that interesting. I don't understand why one of those things would be considered weird and the other would be considered normal
No, people are just anxious over who will win as there is a lot at stake this election.

A week from now I won't give a flying fuck about Nevada's 6 electoral votes, but today yes I find it very relevant and interesting.
 

Chou Toshio

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Also... I'm not sure why Trump would want that. If we stopped counting right now Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada would stay blue and ensure exactly 270 electoral votes to Biden. Somewhat ironically Trump's best chance right now is just to let fair and free elections do their thing.
I think when he gave that speech he was still ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan
 

Wigglytuff

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Like the best way I can put it is, imagine we had a coronavirus thread, and a good chunk of the posts were like "hey everyone, here's my prediction for how many deaths this will cause." And like, not even tying that to any sort of policy that the person advocates like masks vs no masks or whatever, just purely "Because it interests me, I wanted to see how accurately I could predict the number of covid deaths. Therefore I did a lot of research so I could get the most accurate prediction possible."

I mean that would be really weird right? I think most people would see that as weird or even callous in a way? But with elections it is seen as normal. Idk I find that interesting. I don't understand why one of those things would be considered weird and the other would be considered normal
have you seen a weekly SPL/snake thread? people are all about predictions here
 

Chou Toshio

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Trump and Sanders agree on... almost literally nothing. People in Florida voting on a state-wide minimum wage is different from a Federal min wage. Voting on a state wide min wage increase absolutely does not compare to all the many, many big expensive things Bernie proposed.

Additionally even if Bernie made it through the primaries you're going to see the world's easiest propaganda campaign against him. "Bernie the SOCIALIST" literally jacks itself off when Bernie calls himself a "Democratic Socialist". I would have loved to see a Sanders presidency but the guy would have been absolutely shredded in a fight against Trump.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/254120/less-half-vote-socialist-president.aspx

You know it's bad when Americans would rather vote for a gay black Muslim than a socialist.
I think Myzozoa (and others like me who envision a DemSoc win) is right in a very narrow sense that if given a robust democratic system, and "fair" playing field where the merits of the ideas and the character of individuals could be to some degree properly assessed by the citizenry-- I do think an FDR style 40+ states map would be possible, and that a candidate like Sanders running on a fundamentally democratic socialist message (but perhaps more stalwart in message and more antagonistic to the Democratic leadership) could win big in that context. Maybe their presentation style/messaging would need to be more like Tulsi's patriotism or Yang's humanism.

We're talking about the comments section of a Joe Rogan podcast where countless centrists and right-wingers express shock at listening to Bernie and thinking about how reasonable, or at least empathetic and genuine and not crazy he is. Bernie could win if the entire media ecosystem and voting infrastructure was that.

But after watching the Dem primary, I have doubts as to whether it's actually possible in the real world. Not just because "Americans dumb, socialists bad"-- but because of what we saw in the UK, where-- forget the tories, or lib-dems-- even much of the Labour apparatus itself that Corbyn ostensibly ran was pocketing money from special interests and working overtime behind the scenes to ensure a Tory victory. Scandals, leaks, party funds allocated to safe elections seats, the media...

...even if Bernie became the candidate it would probably be impossible for him to win if the entire party infrastructure was simultaneously trying its best to lose, and allied with a media ecosystem also intent on making Sanders lose. The primary gave the opportunity for a leap-frog forward in the nerve center of global capitalism against the backdrop of a ticking clock against global catastrophe...

but regardless of deadlines in face of climate crisis, the actual political physics of realizing a successful democratic socialist project in the United States seems impossible without genuine transformation in hearts and minds of large parts of the electorate; requiring much more actual outreach in communities, more struggles for justice on streets, more inclusive messaging of solidarity across different groups of the non-oligarchy, and unfortunately... much more human suffering before a wider proportion of the population actually becomes more open to being critical of capitalism.
In that context, the Sanders campaign did a whole lot-- it's still a massively losing battle for avoiding climate crisis or the threat of greater empowered fascism, but we'd be much worse off without it.
 
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