No. 2022 is GOP flip on gerrymandering alone. It will either be a red wave or a red tsunami. The best case scenario for Dems is covid-19 and inflation die down by summer of 2022, Dem losses are kept to the red wave.
Lib tears. Conservatives can laugh if they want, but genuinely sad.
I do feel like Dems came THIS close to making some really great progressive changes-- and seeing basically all but TWO Democrats essentially line up for real positive changes did change my perception of what's possible in the party (even if many house Conservative Dems had to be dragged kicking-- My rep was one of them, but when I e-mailed him he even expressed genuine support for 3.5 Trillion).
Not that the Dems could become a non-corporate party or a working class party, but that with enough time and continued cultural change, it might be possible for the same professional elite liberal class that controls the Democrats to be convinced that at least substantive Keynsian/New Deal/Social Democratic reforms are genuinely needed for the future of the country, and the future of the economy that also serves their interests.
Certainly, I think the time under Biden has lead the average rich MSNBC-watching Democrat to develop a LOT more animosity towards Republicans/Conservatives of all stripes than the AoCs/Bernies of the world. Heck, if Sinema's TANKING poll numbers are any indicator—
it’s been refreshing to see some of the most Anti-Bernie voices of the primary get behind the 3.5 Trillion and blast Manchinema is all I’m saying. A GOP takeover undoes all the progress we barely made at all.
Absolutely not. There is a better chance of being struck by lightning than Trump winning in 2024. He has to evade criminal prosecution for another 3 years, successfully win a crowded GOP primary, and count on the 81 million people who already voted against him in 2020 to forget why they did so. Also, a significant number of his own 2020 voters will have died from complications of covid-19.
I hear you about the anti-vaxers dying off (and GOP voters genuinely being real old is a thing too), but I can’t seriously imagine Trump having trouble with legal issues or the primary.
lol. lmao.
I'm not saying it's guaranteed Trump, but saying another Trump term is as likely as being hit by lightning is just... lmao
Trump is almost definitely the nominee and I have no idea what Dem has a good chance of winning against him. Even if Bernie defies being too old and tries running, the Dems block him again and push forward someone wildly unpopular like Kamala and Pete, and Trump will run over them. Biden apparently expressed a desire to run in 24 but he's barely able to stay awake less then a year into this term.
Unless the GOP finds some fun new toy, it seems pretty dang likely Trump takes it.
Yeah, super awful but this is much closer to my impression of reality.
Also I don’t think Bernie could win against Trump 2024. Too old, too perceived as an insider now, and with two losses. Bernie’s done incredible work as our Chairman but he’s not a winning card in 2024 imo.
I really wish there was an obvious ideological successor that was viable, but I think the younger progressives are going to have to make more real policy (and election) wins on the books, and do less culture warring/more rainbow coalition building to become such a figure.
Kamala, Buttegieg, and frankly Michelle Obama imo would all get spanked by Trump.
I still see Biden as the best bet, and as mentioned previously have come to like him a lot more in office. Seriously wish Bernie and Biden were both 15 years younger, and had the gas in the tank to really have been the Eugene Debs and FDR this era needed.