NOC Animal Mafia [Day 7] DL: 22 Feb, 3:30PM PST

XnadrojX Interaction Analysis

| denotes responding to a quote or a question, or an attack. I'll count other people's posts as well.
- denotes a passive mention. Same w/other people's posts.

Multiple occurrences in the same post are redundant. If a post contains both | and - for the same player, only | is mentioned.

Some | may be demoted to - and vice versa depending on importance.

Texas will be the townie control group. Knights will be the scum control group.

Code:
Aubis:
Harno: -----
Earlo: -
Htmlt: ---
Jlmnt: ||-------
3P1K*: |||||---
FormH: |----
Moody: ||||---
Proph: |--
apric: -

Knights: -
Texas: ||||--
Xnad had one early interaction where he voted Mithril/Texas slot, but that slot is now confirmed town so yeah, not super useful for analysis.

XnadrojX said:
Blazade lynch is honestly BS, like one player pokes at him a little, then suddenly everyone gets on, this wagon looks incredibly scumdriven to me, even if Hawkie is town one or more of the wagoners is definitely scum given this speed the wagon grew at.

Vote ThunderBALLZ

Especially this vote, user has posted 3 times this game, first 2 posts was "hi, I'm here and nothing interesting has happened" and the third post was just a "I want to sheep this wagon". Plus this wagon is already getting traction and I honestly think Blazade is town with the wagon formation.

Scumreading Asek because while all the shit is going on, they're having some personal 1v1 with Jalmont on an irrelevant topic that honestly doesn't warrant further discussion when there's more things to discuss.

Hawkie is probably town tunneling, but I'm not going to leave out the option that he's scum using his influence to push a lynch, although I'm willing to consider him town for now because I have no clue why he'd push Blazade > someone else.
First relevant Xna post.

Reading this post makes me think that XnadrojX is trying to whiteknight someone he KNOWS is town (Blazade) in order to score that sweet sweet town cred over defending a buddy. I don't think Xnadroj blatantly defends a buddy like this, especially when he's under pressure as well. I also think that the "I honestly think Blazade is town with the wagon formation" is something that he KNOWS to be true. So I think Former Hope is town from this; what are your thoughts, guys?

This post bothers me a bit, the bolded sounds like what any scum trying to direct the lynch onto people voting Blazade without going after Hawkie nor appearing to townread him too easily would say.
Like I don't really disagree with what they say but it looks somewhat like the aim here is to not draw Hawkie's aggro ?
This post also is a good look for Moody for being the first one to actually pressure Xnadroj.

Plus Blazade being the only one to actually vote Xnad is a good look on the FH slot. Xnadroj defending Blazade while Blazade is simultaneously scumreading XnadrojX soooort of clears FH in my eyes? Like, there is absolutely no scum coordination/collusion here.

Torn between TBZ and Durza right now, hopefully Durza gets subbed but otherwise hopefully his next few prod dodging posts have content in them.

Is Haruno even here?
Does he want his scumbuddy to be replaced?

Jalmont said:
your case on xnadroj is just not a good one. it looks worse in comparison because you wrote a whole lot of words beforehand just to call most people town/you can't get a read on them. I can do the exact same thing too. Anyone can really.

The problem with this argument is that you effectively just gave a free pass to everyone you couldn't read. you're literally punishing someone who tried to engage with the game and using fairly whimsical reasoning at best to explain why he's mafia. your best reason is that this vote will give us info when i dont want info. so it's hard for me to believe you when you tell me this is your strongest scum read. I'm not trying to vote for who is going to give us the most info. I want to vote the person most likely to be mafia.
I don't know how I feel about Jalmont trying to discredit the XnadrojX case; Jalmont can you give me a little more info here as to why you did this? Did you think Xnadroj was town?

XnadrojX said:
all right i see the whole of the past 2 pages has been Texas and Jalmont slinging shit at each other, but I don't think voting someone purely because their playstyle annoys you is better than voting a scumread.

I can't really say anything to defend myself from Texas, but while self-preservation is inherently more of a scum trait, some people as town (which I like to say includes me for the purpose of this defense) would place self-preservation as a beneficial trait to have when town as it lowers the PoE. The main argument on me is that I guess so yeah.

Back to real things, what are we going to do about Haruno and Durza?

I feel like I want to townread Jalmont for being so against the tide but then again it could be me being pocketed so.... I'd put him as town for now.


Vote MoodyCloud

Don't like that naked sheeping of Texas
Moody is probably close to confirmed town at this point tbh from interactions unless the scum literally reverse bussed like they did last game.

This is such a weird post to analyze, though. He's dismissing Jalmont and Texas and calling them both town, but the way he's townreading Jalmont feels so.. strange. "I want to townread him for being against the tide but I'm afraid of being pocketed, so he's probably town" is such a bizarre way to townread someone. Would he do this to a buddy?

Blazade said:
I've been town leaning Jalmont and Xnadroj because I see them as engaged and your arguments for scum reading them are subtle enough that I'm gonna have to reread the game to engage with them properly.
This is a thing.

First time EPIK mentions Xnadroj.

So uh you scumlean me for being self-preservative yet not being totally self-preservative? I mean pick one you're going to scumread me for, why would I be more avid in my defense if I was town compared to as if I was scum when Texas already showed that he views self-preservation as a scumtell and would prefer people to focus on each other? What does me hedging a TR on Jalmont (I TRed Texas too at that point as well btw) got to do with me being scum, and how was my vote weakly based?
This is Xnadroj's defense against EPIK. Not super sure what to think of it to be honest, I mean, points to EPIK for trying to CFD to Xnad in a way that doesn't ~seem like scum theater I guess?

XnadrojX said:
I don't think Blazade just outright claims 2S Redirector as scum given that it's historically a scum role, and besides his few posts give me a town ping to them.
Hey look, another "I know Blazade is town" indicator.

OK well there's been a lot of chatter going on but I still have no defense on my case since I've seen no one else apart from Texas provide a decent explanation (I'm not counting links to FH since pre-flip associations are flimsy at best).

There's been a lot of them but pretty much only MoodyCloud's and to an extent, Former Hope has had any real interesting content in their posts.

Saying that, Vote 3P1K.

Their posts rub me the wrong way, like they're fishing for favor from people without any real content they can be held accountable for. Lemme grab a few posts
Feels like he's tryyying to reach for any mislynch before he dies?

I feel like the back and forth between Xnad and EPIK here points towards EPIK town? Unless EPIK is like, super scum mastermind extraordinaire and tried to get some interactions down so he looks good in the end, this feels fairly organic to me.

Well yeah I guess I'm the lynch now, and deadline is coming soon so....

I'm a Cop, Earlio and Jalmont are town.
Last post, first time he ever mentions Earlio.

So conclusions?

I think FH / Moody / EPIK are all probably town. He mentions Durza and Haruno a lot, mostly in the same breath, but never pressures either of them. Never mentions aubisio or really Knights, which means that he probably doesn't interact with his buddies a whole lot. Feels like his team was just trying to get him through the day, trying to have him blatantly advance the scum win condition.

If people could look at Xnad's posts and check my work then that would be greatly appreciated. For now, I think aubisio is probably scum and.. Hitmonleet might be the forth but I'm increasingly being unconvinced on that when I read his posts? I dunno. We have someone deep for sure though.
 
Someone providing thoughts/input on the above would very much be appreciated, I know I haven't been super analytical this game but trying to change that since I finished most of my homework today.

I'll do a similar one for Knights tomorrow.
 

Jalmont

Mafia Champion
Yknow, this gives me a thought: If Aubisio is town, does this indirectly confirm the existence of a persuade, and not some trolling messenger? Tho iirc nobody claimed persuasion this cycle, so it would thus mean Knights was a trolling messenger, and so Aubisio makes literally no sense as Town, and would thus most likely be town, and as such, ought to be lynched. Maybe?
...

are you paying any attention dude

Seriously,
thank you for this. I never get told what I'm actually doing badly, and stuff like this honestly helps me improve a lot. I guess I just hedge a lot and play cautiously and reticently because, as town, I don't have much info, and I hate making a decision if I'm not sure of things. On the other hand, if I think I'm sure of things, I obsessively tunnel that belief, even if it turns out wrong. I'll try to step up and push things a bit more.
i mean no problem i am always glad to give constructive improvement (although you should probably ask someone who is good at mafia instead...hehe). there's a balance between being uncertain, and obsessively tunneling. i'm not saying that balance is easy or anything. i personally think it's all about being confident in your reads while also being willing to entertain the thought that you are wrong, but not to that point where you just drop every opinion you have.

Aubisio what are your thoughts as to my theorizing about your role? If you disagree, then why? Do you think the "persuade" was/is real, or no?
sigh
 
Earlio was persuaded/messaged this cycle after I redirected Jalmont to him.
0.0
Yeesh my reread was shitty.

This does give us something very definite: Among Aubisio and Jalmont, there is at least one scum.

Aesthetic with no role to actually avoid is an idiotic idea and if MS actually did that I lose all faith in him.

The way I see it, there are 4 possible options:

  1. Both Town. This makes absolutely no sense, and can, as such, be ignored.
  2. Scumbisio. Aubisio, pressured for a claim and noting other things that have already been claimed, claims Aesthetic, regardless of it being his role or not. A town Aesthetic makes no sense with what we know so far, but a Mafia aesthetic? Perfectly believable and likely in this setup. Leaning this atm, since I'm currently feeling a scumread on Aubisio, and more of a null on Jalmont.
  3. Scumont. Jalmont the persuader persuades, but is caught as a persuader, and then attempts to persuade people he's the Town persuader. If Aubisio is town, Jalmont must be scum OR there's another persuader we should know about (which is pretty unlikely, tbh). Otherwise Aubisio being the aesthetic makes no sense whatsoever, unless...
  4. Double Up. In this case, it's just two scum trying to mole town, or potentially trying to deliberately invoke a seeming TvS when it's really a SvS. However, the two haven't had many interactions, so I'm leaning towards a no on this route, but it is possible, I suppose.
Would like some thoughts on my analysis and how people are leaning out of these potential results.

Also, a bit off topic from the point of this post, but after Proph's analysis, I'm feeling town from them now (they're citing and quoting things, deep (almost over)analysis).
 
Reminder that both Jordan and Knights wanted Durza replaced "by Proph" when I entertained the idea of policy lynching them
The Hitmonleet/Durza slot literally cannot live to lylo but it's okay if we don't lynch it right now
 
Reminder that both Jordan and Knights wanted Durza replaced "by Proph" when I entertained the idea of policy lynching them
The Hitmonleet/Durza slot literally cannot live to lylo but it's okay if we don't lynch it right now
Counterpoint: I'm town.

Also, wouldn't it look scummy to promote having a bad/not as good player subbed in for a slot?
 
Vote Count 5.2

Jalmont (2): Former Hope, Aubisio
Aubisio (4): 3P1K, apricity, Prophylaxis, Earlio,
Hitmonleet (2): Jalmont, MoodyCloud,
Not Voting (2): Haruno, Hitmonleet,

With 10 alive, it's 6 to hammer.
 
Hey guys just a heads up im gonna be paying minimal attention to the tread in the hours up till DL. (i think we only have a few hours left now; no time to check). Imma be @work for the next 6 hours give or take.
P confident aubisio'll flip red if we put it through as the lynch of the day. Significantly less confident on every other slot in the game though. So after this i got some rethinking to do.
 
0.0
Yeesh my reread was shitty.

This does give us something very definite: Among Aubisio and Jalmont, there is at least one scum.

Aesthetic with no role to actually avoid is an idiotic idea and if MS actually did that I lose all faith in him.

The way I see it, there are 4 possible options:

  1. Both Town. This makes absolutely no sense, and can, as such, be ignored.
  2. Scumbisio. Aubisio, pressured for a claim and noting other things that have already been claimed, claims Aesthetic, regardless of it being his role or not. A town Aesthetic makes no sense with what we know so far, but a Mafia aesthetic? Perfectly believable and likely in this setup. Leaning this atm, since I'm currently feeling a scumread on Aubisio, and more of a null on Jalmont.
  3. Scumont. Jalmont the persuader persuades, but is caught as a persuader, and then attempts to persuade people he's the Town persuader. If Aubisio is town, Jalmont must be scum OR there's another persuader we should know about (which is pretty unlikely, tbh). Otherwise Aubisio being the aesthetic makes no sense whatsoever, unless...
  4. Double Up. In this case, it's just two scum trying to mole town, or potentially trying to deliberately invoke a seeming TvS when it's really a SvS. However, the two haven't had many interactions, so I'm leaning towards a no on this route, but it is possible, I suppose.
Would like some thoughts on my analysis and how people are leaning out of these potential results.

Also, a bit off topic from the point of this post, but after Proph's analysis, I'm feeling town from them now (they're citing and quoting things, deep (almost over)analysis).
We have confirmation (universally) that a persuader doesnt exist now as the "persaude" just got broken with no reprocusions. How does this change your thoughts?
 
We have confirmation (universally) that a persuader doesnt exist now as the "persaude" just got broken with no reprocusions. How does this change your thoughts?
Put the cucks who lied about persuade on chopping block, and make jalmont town for calling that out forever. Also goes well with what leet said since aubisio is one of the cucks who claimed persuade
 

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