Project Break My Team [Cycle #18] [BW]

Do you want ADV 1v1 to be included in BMT?


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Cantius

I COULD BE BANNED!
Keldeo @ Choice Specs
Ability: Justified
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Surf
- Secret Sword

252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Secret Sword vs. 248 HP / 132 Def Goodra: 234-276 (61 - 72%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Keldeo: 186-219 (57.5 - 67.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

248+ Def Avalugg Body Press vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Keldeo: 136-161 (42.1 - 49.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Secret Sword vs. 8 HP / 248+ Def Avalugg: 192-228 (57.6 - 68.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Surf vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 480-566 (130 - 153.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 

49 Days

Formerly Taerim
You should think less for next time and always look for something safer.


Gardevoir @ Babiri Berry
Ability: Trace
EVs: 176 HP / 248 Def / 76 SpA / 8 Spe
Bold Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Moonblast
- Protect
- Mystical Fire
- CM

Incineroar -> protect in fake Blast and recoil.
76 SpA Gardevoir Moonblast vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 144-171 (39 - 46.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 176 HP / 248+ Def Gardevoir: 166-196 (51.7 - 61%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Avalugg -> 76 SpA Gardevoir Mystical Fire vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 286-338 (85.8 - 101.5%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO
252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Icicle Spear (5 hits) vs. 176 HP / 248+ Def Gardevoir: 270-320 (84.1 - 99.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Goodra-> CM and Blast 198 speed > 197.
 
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49 Days

Formerly Taerim

Duraludon @ Chople Berry
Ability: Light Metal
EVs: 152 HP / 40 Atk / 56 Def / 252 SpA / 8 SpD
Calm Nature
- Outrage
- Flash Cannon
- Draco Meteor

Incineroar -> I die of 2 flare but I am faster with draco and considering the recoil I win.
104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 152 HP / 56 Def Duraludon: 148-175 (46.3 - 54.8%) -- 64.5% chance to 2HKO
252 SpA Duraludon Draco Meteor vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 220-259 (59.6 - 70.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Avalugg -> I put up with everything about avalugg very fair but hey flash kills anyway.
252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Icicle Spear (5 hits) vs. 152 HP / 56 Def Duraludon: 245-290 (76.8 - 90.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Duraludon Flash Cannon vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 510-600 (153.1 - 180.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Goodra -> Acid spray does not affect me and I can stand Draco to finish off with Double Outrage.
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 152 HP / 8+ SpD Duraludon: 265-313 (83 - 98.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
40- Atk Duraludon Outrage vs. 248 HP / 132 Def Haban Berry Goodra: 132-156 (34.4 - 40.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Next turn
40- Atk Duraludon Outrage vs. 248 HP / 132 Def Goodra: 264-312 (68.9 - 81.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
 
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pillows
wine

:piloswine:
Piloswine @ Eviolite
Ability: Thick Fat
EVs: 56 Atk / 32 Def / 172 SpA / 248 Spe
Naughty Nature
- Earth Power
- Icicle Spear
- Icicle Crash
:avalugg:
Avalugg
172 SpA Piloswine Earth Power vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 168-198 (50.4 - 59.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
248+ Def Choice Band Avalugg Body Press vs. 0 HP / 32 Def Eviolite Piloswine: 288-340 (84.4 - 99.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Heavy Slam (120 BP) vs. 0 HP / 32 Def Eviolite Piloswine: 282-332 (82.6 - 97.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

2HKO w/ Earth Power
You live every move from Lugg

:goodra:
Goodra
56+ Atk Piloswine Icicle Spear (2 hits) vs. 248 HP / 132 Def Goodra: 144-172 (37.5 - 44.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
56+ Atk Piloswine Icicle Crash vs. 248 HP / 132 Def Goodra: 240-284 (62.6 - 74.1%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 0- SpD Eviolite Piloswine: 192-226 (56.3 - 66.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Icicle Spear into Icicle Crash
Goodra only counters the first hit of Icicle Spear

:incineroar:
Incineroar
104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 0 HP / 32 Def Eviolite Piloswine: 31-37 (9 - 10.8%) -- possibly the worst move ever
172 SpA Piloswine Earth Power vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 180-212 (48.7 - 57.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 0 HP / 32 Def Eviolite Thick Fat Piloswine: 134-162 (39.2 - 47.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

2HKO w/ Earth Power
You live everything from Incin
 
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Excadrill @ Choice Specs
Ability: Mold Breaker
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Def / 4 SpA
Bold Nature
- Steel Beam
- Earth Power
- Fling
- Rest

1586805699252.png

Fling then spam earth power until its dead, rest when low.
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Excadrill: 120-142 (28.3 - 33.4%) -- 34.5% chance to 3HKO

1586805808003.png

Steel Beam
0 SpA Choice Specs Mold Breaker Excadrill Steel Beam vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 534-630 (160.3 - 189.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO

1586805860380.png

Earth power
0 SpA Choice Specs Mold Breaker Excadrill Earth Power vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 186-218 (50.4 - 59%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Excadrill: 19-23 (4.4 - 5.4%) -- possibly the worst move ever

104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Excadrill: 344-408 (81.1 - 96.2%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO (After fake out)
104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Excadrill: 19-23 (4.4 - 5.4%) -- possibly the worst move ever
 
I should have gone to bed but instead did this. It's another one with fun incineroar math:

Mew @ Maranga Berry
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 252 Def / 252 SpA / 4 SpD
Bold Nature
- Charm
- Earth Power
- Nasty Plot
- Ice Beam

Avalugg: earth power twice
252 SpA Mew Earth Power vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 168-198 (50.4 - 59.4%)
252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Icicle Spear (5 hits) vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Mew: 210-245 (61.5 - 71.8%)

Goodra: np into two ice beams. Maranga berry saves you (253 times out of 256) from acid spray->draco. The 4 Spdef comes in handy by removing two possibilities here. mew has 341 hp for reference here, so goodra needs max roll draco plus top 3 roll on acid spray.
+2 252 SpA Mew Ice Beam vs. 248 HP / 0+ SpD Goodra: 210-248 (54.8 - 64.7%)
124 SpA Goodra Acid Spray vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mew: 35-42 (10.2 - 12.3%)
Possible damage amounts: (35, 36, 36, 36, 37, 37, 38, 38, 39, 39, 39, 40, 40, 41, 41, 42)
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. -1 0 HP / 4 SpD Mew: 255-300 (74.7 - 87.9%)
Possible damage amounts: (255, 258, 261, 264, 267, 270, 273, 276, 279, 282, 285, 288, 291, 294, 297, 300)

Incineroar: charm->earth power spam.
252 SpA Mew Earth Power vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 180-212 (48.7 - 57.4%) -- 94.1% chance to 2HKO
104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Mew: 28-34 (8.2 - 9.9%)
Possible damage amounts: (28, 29, 29, 29, 30, 30, 30, 31, 31, 31, 32, 32, 32, 33, 33, 34)
-2 104+ Atk Incineroar Darkest Lariat vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Mew: 90-108 (26.3 - 31.6%)
Possible damage amounts: (90, 90, 92, 92, 96, 96, 96, 98, 98, 98, 102, 102, 102, 104, 104, 108)
It's super unlikely but incineroar can technically win this by dodging the earth power 2hko and getting high rolls on all of its attacks. I'd do the math now but I've got physics in 8 1/2 hours and want to sleep. It's probably like less than one % though.
Wait we're not allowed to use banned mons right
 
:octillery:
pew pew (Octillery) @ Choice Specs
Ability: Abilities are overrated
EVs: 200 SpA / 216 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Blizzard
- Flamethrower
- Hydro Pump

Goodra
Outspeed and kill
200 SpA Choice Specs Octillery Blizzard vs. 248 HP / 0+ SpD Goodra: 192-226 (50.1 - 59%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Octillery: 216-255 (74.2 - 87.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Avalugg
Outspeed and kill
200 SpA Choice Specs Octillery Flamethrower vs. 8 HP / 0 SpD Avalugg: 448-528 (134.5 - 158.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
248+ Def Choice Band Avalugg Body Press vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Octillery: 237-279 (81.4 - 95.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Incineroar
Outspeed and kill
200 SpA Choice Specs Octillery Hydro Pump vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 486-572 (131.7 - 155%) -- guaranteed OHKO
104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Octillery: 50-59 (17.1 - 20.2%) -- possible 5HKO

I think I'm starting to see a pattern here
 
and since danny doritos got special excadrill about an hour before I did, here's a different thing:

Cloyster
Ability: Skill Link
EVs: 96 HP / 252 Atk / 88 Spe
- Icicle Spear
- Surf

Avalugg: surf twice.
0 SpA Cloyster Surf vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 174-205 (52.2 - 61.5%)
248+ Def Choice Band Avalugg Body Press vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Cloyster: 224-264 (84.5 - 99.6%)

Goodra: Icicle spear.
252 Atk Cloyster Icicle Spear (5 hits) vs. 248 HP / 132 Def Goodra: 390-460 (101.8 - 120.1%)

Incineroar: surf twice.
0 SpA Cloyster Surf vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 186-222 (50.4 - 60.1%)
104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Cloyster: 24-29 (9 - 10.9%)
104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Cloyster: 105-124 (39.6 - 46.7%)
 
Fuck galar, all my homies hate galar.

Weezing @ Sitrus Berry
Ability: Levitate
EVs: 88 HP / 252 SpD / 168 Spe
Calm Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Venoshock
- Toxic
- Protect
- Substitute

I think that this is my magnum opus. I'm pretty proud of it.
First, the simple one:

Avalugg: toxic->protect->sub->protect->venoshock
252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Icicle Spear (5 hits) vs. 88 HP / 0 Def Weezing: 245-290 (83.6 - 98.9%)
4 turns of toxic damage is 6+12+18+24=60%, so 40% remaining
0 SpA Weezing Venoshock (130 BP) vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 250-295 (75 - 88.5%)
so Weezing can venoshock as soon as Avalugg's below 75% (turn four) if you would like the battle to end more quickly.

Goodra: Toxic turn one.
If draco:
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 88 HP / 164 SpD Weezing: 186-219 (63.4 - 74.7%)
A max roll will leave you at just over 50% health after sitrus. Weezing can protect and sub and the sub will be broken by draco, leaving Weezing at 25%. Protect and sub again and Draco needs an absolute max roll to even break Weezing's sub (-4 124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 88 HP / 164 SpD Weezing: 61-73 (20.8 - 24.9%)), and by this point Goodra has taken enough damage from toxic to where it will be knocked out very shortly.
88+ SpA Weezing Venoshock (130 BP) vs. 248 HP / 0+ SpD Goodra: 94-112 (24.5 - 29.2%)
If acid spray:
124 SpA Goodra Acid Spray vs. -2 88 HP / 164 SpD Weezing: 38-45 (12.9 - 15.3%)
at -2, Goodra's sludge waves will be able to break your substitute 124 SpA Goodra Sludge Wave vs. -2 88 HP / 164 SpD Weezing: 90-107 (30.7 - 36.5%)), but Weezing will have enough HP to sub/tect for 9 turns, which is more than enough for to be knocked out by poison.

Incineroar: Protect turn one for fake out and then toxic.
If taunt: Venoshock twice (obviously). Incineroar has 369 HP and will take 69 (heh) over its first two turns of poison. Venoshock does 162 minimum, meaning the second one will always KO. Incineroar cannot deal enough damage to take out Weezing in one turn.
88+ SpA Weezing Venoshock (130 BP) vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 162-192 (43.9 - 52%)
Possible damage amounts: (162, 165, 166, 168, 169, 172, 174, 175, 178, 180, 181, 183, 186, 187, 189, 192)
104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 88 HP / 0 Def Weezing: 151-178 (51.5 - 60.7%)
If attack: stall out with sub/tect. Flare Blitz will take your sitrus and leave you at 65%, which is 5 turns of stalling so 6 turns of toxic damage, and that's what it takes to die from it. Incineroar is in venoshock range òn turn 5 as well I believe.

Edits were made b/c I accidentally posted this before I was done.
 
Two hours ago, I set out to do this with a randomly rolled mon. I got mawile. Initially, I thought it'd be impossible. Then, I thought it might be doable. Then, I realized that it really wouldn't be. And then, having been called mad by some (myself) and encouraged to go on by others (also myself) I focused on the raw numbers to the point where I achieved Pokenirvana, decoded the fabric of the game itself, and actually did it, even though it took hours.

(or more accurately: I found out that half a dozen ideas didn't work before finally stumbling upon this one)

Ladies, gentlemen, everyone in between, I give you a mawile:

naughty tickler (Mawile) @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Hyper Cutter
EVs: 180 Atk / 244 Def / 84 Spe
Naughty Nature
- Tickle
- Stone Edge
- Power-Up Punch
- Flash Cannon

Goodra is trivial: it can't hurt you and flash cannon is an impressive 10hko.
0 SpA Mawile Flash Cannon vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Goodra: 39-46 (10.1 - 11.9%) -- possible 9HKO

Avalugg comes dangerously close to killing, but dies to two flash cannons.
-1 252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 244 Def Mawile: 180-212 (74.6 - 87.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Def Choice Band Avalugg Body Press vs. 0 HP / 244 Def Mawile: 165-195 (68.4 - 80.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 SpA Mawile Flash Cannon vs. 0 HP / 4- SpD Avalugg: 218-258 (65.8 - 77.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
(not sure why it's lax instead of adamant tbh)

As for incineroar, this one was... interesting. I've tried band mawile, I've tried specs mawile, I've tried life orb mawile, I've tried SubPunch, I've even tried occa berry toxic stall, but ultimately this set prevailed. The strategy for this one is a bit tricky, but entirely doable.

Turn one, incineroar will fake out, dealing up to 6% of damage.
-1 104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 0 HP / 244 Def Mawile: 11-14 (4.5 - 5.8%) -- possibly the worst move ever

Turn two: you outspeed by a single point. Click tickle, and depending on the move incineroar clicked choose one of three strategies.

If incineroar clicked flare blitz, you survive because it's at -2 and activate your weakness policy. Incineroar takes at least 13.9% recoil.
-2 104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 0 HP / 244 Def Mawile: 156-186 (64.7 - 77.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
The next turn, Stone Edge is guaranteed to kill.
+1 180+ Atk Mawile Stone Edge vs. -1 152 HP / 252 Def Incineroar: 318-376 (86.1 - 101.8%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO

If incineroar clicked DL, you tank the hit easily and end up between 80 and 85%.
-2 104+ Atk Incineroar Darkest Lariat vs. 0 HP / 244 Def Mawile: 27-33 (11.2 - 13.6%) -- possible 7HKO

Click Tickle a few times, use Power-Up Punch for good measure, and finish the thing with Stone Edge.
-1 180+ Atk Mawile Stone Edge vs. -6 152 HP / 252 Def Incineroar: 384-452 (104 - 122.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

If incineroar clicked taunt, it can't kill you T3 (see above). Click Power-Up Punch T3.
Either incineroar goes for flare blitz, in which case weakness policy activates and you kill with stone edge T4, or it clicks darkest lariat (in which case it can't kill T4 (see above calculations for confirmation but basically 13.6+77.1<94), so you can get two power-up punches and kill with stone edge).
-1 180+ Atk Mawile Power-Up Punch vs. -1 152 HP / 252 Def Chople Berry Incineroar: 29-35 (7.8 - 9.4%) -- possibly the worst move ever
180+ Atk Mawile Power-Up Punch vs. -1 152 HP / 252 Def Incineroar: 86-102 (23.3 - 27.6%) -- 63.4% chance to 4HKO


In conclusion, here's a mawile that manages to beat a banded avalugg and an incineroar, what more do you want.
 
Steelix
Ability: Rock Head
EVs: 12 HP / 252 Def / 244 Spe
Impish Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Body Press
- Torment
- Protect
- Iron Defense

mem.jpg

Avalugg: Torment and then protect on its attacking turns and Body Press when it struggles.
248+ Def Choice Band Avalugg Body Press vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Steelix: 162-192 (55.6 - 65.9%)
252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Icicle Spear (5 hits) vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Steelix: 125-155 (42.9 - 53.2%)
252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Struggle vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Steelix: 34-40 (11.6 - 13.7%)
252+ Def Steelix Body Press vs. 8 HP / 248+ Def Avalugg: 124-146 (37.2 - 43.8%)
Lugg cannot take Steelix out with a body press and two struggles.

Goodra: Iron Defense twice into Body Press.
+4 252+ Def Steelix Body Press vs. 248 HP / 132 Def Goodra: 450-530 (117.4 - 138.3%)
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 12 SpD Steelix: 118-140 (40.5 - 48.1%)
-2 124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 12 SpD Steelix: 59-70 (20.2 - 24%)
-4 124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 12 SpD Steelix: 39-47 (13.4 - 16.1%)
Goodra cannot KO without a crit


Incineroar: Cannot 2hko without using flare blitz (fake out+lariat+blitz does not kill) so Steelix can safely outspeed and knock it out with two Body Presses. It has a chance to not 2hko due to Chople, but if Incineroar uses Flare Blitz then it will go down to recoil.
252+ Def Steelix Body Press vs. 152 HP / 252 Def Chople Berry Incineroar: 113-133 (30.6 - 36%)
252+ Def Steelix Body Press vs. 152 HP / 252 Def Incineroar: 226-266 (61.2 - 72%)
104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Steelix: 152-182 (52.2 - 62.5%) (13.5 - 16.2% recoil damage)
104+ Atk Incineroar Darkest Lariat vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Steelix: 54-64 (18.5 - 21.9%)
104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Steelix: 8-10 (2.7 - 3.4%)
 
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49 Days

Formerly Taerim

Toxapex @ Sitrus Berry
Ability: Merciless
EVs: 252 HP / 252 SpA / 4 SpD
Modest Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Ice Beam
- Surf
- Protect
- Toxic

Incineroar -> you need 3 darkest while i just 2 surf same story as below
104+ Atk Incineroar Darkest Lariat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 87-103 (28.6 - 33.8%) -- 0.9% chance to 3HKO
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 204-240 (55.2 - 65%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Avalugg -> I'm a little faster and 2 click surf enough.
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 189-223 (56.7 - 66.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 212-250 (69.7 - 82.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Goodra -> first turn for me with Toxic. On the other hand goodra does this with Draco.
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Toxapex: 126-148 (41.4 - 48.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
It would basically be defending myself with toxic / protect sitrus ice.
 
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:octillery:
pew pew (Octillery) @ Choice Specs
Ability: Abilities are overrated
EVs: 200 SpA / 216 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Blizzard
- Flamethrower
- Hydro Pump
Doesn't count because you have to hit two blizzards and the cumulative chance of that is less than 70% (look in the first post).

"7. Moves with at least 70% accuracy over the number of turns needed will always count as hitting."
 
Rolled another random mon, hope y'all like garbodor.

Garbofield (Garbodor) @ Sitrus Berry
Ability: Stench
EVs: 208 HP / 252 Def / 48 Spe
Bold Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Substitute
- Protect
- Toxic
- Sludge Wave

Sub versus goodra. Its only move that can break it is draco meteor, and that stops working after two turns. Toxic as it breaks your third sub.
-4 124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 208 HP / 0 SpD Garbodor: 67-79 (18.9 - 22.3%) -- possible 5HKO
At this point, you're at 50.3% from sitrus recovery, goodra is poisoned, and it still can't break your substitutes. Stall with sub+protect and win.
If goodra doesn't use Draco you get a free move from behind your sub, so use that to get Toxic off and stall normally.

Versus avalugg, toxic T1 again, protect, sub (possible bc sitrus), protect, sludge wave. At the start of T5 it'll have taken 6+12+18+24=60% from poison, so sludge wave kills.
252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Earthquake vs. 208 HP / 252+ Def Garbodor: 248-294 (70.2 - 83.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 SpA Garbodor Sludge Wave vs. 0 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 139-165 (41.9 - 49.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Incineroar, same story. Toxic, stall and win.
104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 208 HP / 252+ Def Garbodor: 144-169 (40.7 - 47.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO (12.8 - 15.1% recoil damage)
104+ Atk Incineroar Darkest Lariat vs. 208 HP / 252+ Def Garbodor: 102-121 (28.8 - 34.2%) -- 3.4% chance to 3HKO
104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 208 HP / 252+ Def Garbodor: 33-39 (9.3 - 11%) -- possibly the worst move ever

If incineroar flare blitzes, you are a little above 50% so you can win with protect,sub,protect,sub,sludge (not to mention that blitz recoil means toxic kills a turn sooner).

If incineroar darkest lariats, you got an intact berry and more than half your health, so you still win.

If incineroar taunts, the following happens.
0 SpA Garbodor Sludge Wave vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 75-88 (20.3 - 23.8%) -- guaranteed 5HKO

T1: fake out, 11% damage.
T2: toxic, incineroar taunts, incineroar at 94%.
T3: sludge wave, incineroar flare blitzes, you're at 67%, incineroar at 49%.
T4: sludge wave, incineroar flare blitzes again, you're at 20% and roar dies to recoil.

If both flare blitzes are replaced with DL, incineroar doesn't die to recoil and can, in theory, survive to blitz T5. However, this only lets it win if you get low rolls, incineroar gets high rolls on four attacks, and you get no stench flinches. I'm going to assume the 87.5% roll rule covers this situation.
 
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no it isn't, you have to hit 2 blizzards over 2 turns. You add the accuracy and divide by the number of turns. 140/2= 70%
I am... almost certain that shouldn't be how it works.

Hitting two focus blasts is less likely than hitting one dynamic punch (49% versus 50%), but treating one like it's a reliable check but not the other seems very strange.

Also, the post where pqs explained his thinking was about a similar situation (Durant hitting multiple turns in a row) and seems to confirm that a string of 80% accurate moves doesn't count as 'reliable'. (https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/break-my-team-cycle-8-swsh.3658749/page-2#post-8342041)
 

Boat

sailing apparatus, always learning
is a Forum Moderatoris a Battle Simulator Driver
Moderator
no it isn't, you have to hit 2 blizzards over 2 turns. You add the accuracy and divide by the number of turns. 140/2= 70%
The probability of subsequent events is the product of their probabilities. The likelihood of hitting two 70% accuracy moves is .7 * .7 = .49 = 49% chance.
 
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Wanted to do hitmontop, but my original idea (liechi berry HJK) was both boring and a bit RNG-dependent. So instead, here's White Herb Work Up Covet Hitmontop!

Power (Hitmontop) (M) @ White Herb
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 188 HP / 232 Atk / 88 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Fake Out
- Close Combat
- Covet
- Work Up

Versus Goodra, White Herb lets you avoid the 2hko from Acid Spray into Draco Meteor, and none of goodra's other options (Sludge --> Draco and Draco --> Draco) kill you. Work Up twice, then kill with Close Combat. Make sure NOT to Fake Out!
124 SpA Goodra Acid Spray vs. 188 HP / 0 SpD Hitmontop: 33-39 (11.4 - 13.5%) -- possible 8HKO
124 SpA Goodra Sludge Wave vs. 188 HP / 0 SpD Hitmontop: 77-91 (26.7 - 31.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 188 HP / 0 SpD Hitmontop: 157-186 (54.5 - 64.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
-2 124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 188 HP / 0 SpD Hitmontop: 78-93 (27 - 32.2%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
+2 232+ Atk Hitmontop Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 128 Def Goodra: 387-456 (100.7 - 118.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Versus Avalugg, Fake Out T1, then spam Close Combat. You 2hko after chip (5.4+47.7+47.7=100.8), and thanks to White Herb CC doesn't lower your defenses, allowing you to survive any counterattack (note how Body Press can kill if you're at -1 defense).
232+ Atk Hitmontop Fake Out vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Avalugg: 18-22 (5.4 - 6.6%) -- possibly the worst move ever
232+ Atk Hitmontop Close Combat vs. 0 HP / 252+ Def Avalugg: 158-188 (47.7 - 56.7%) -- 87.5% chance to 2HKO
-1 252 Atk Choice Band Avalugg Icicle Spear (3 hits) vs. 188 HP / 0 Def Hitmontop: 120-144 (41.6 - 50%) -- approx. 0.4% chance to 2HKO
252+ Def Choice Band Avalugg Body Press vs. 188 HP / 0 Def Hitmontop: 195-230 (67.7 - 79.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Versus Incineroar, use the White Herb to block Intimidate. Fake Out for chip, Covet to get rid of its chople berry in the funniest possible way, then CC and win (8.9+13.2+78=100.1).
232+ Atk Hitmontop Fake Out vs. 152 HP / 252 Def Incineroar: 33-39 (8.9 - 10.5%) -- possibly the worst move ever
232+ Atk Hitmontop Covet vs. 152 HP / 252 Def Incineroar: 49-58 (13.2 - 15.7%) -- possible 7HKO
232+ Atk Hitmontop Close Combat vs. 152 HP / 252 Def Incineroar: 288-342 (78 - 92.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
-1 104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 188 HP / 0 Def Hitmontop: 123-145 (42.7 - 50.3%) -- 1.6% chance to 2HKO
 

Introducing: Brionne!
:Brionne:
Brionne @ Eviolite
Ability: Liquid Voice
EVs: 192 HP / 140 SpD / 176 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Toxic
- Protect
- Substitute
- Hyper Voice

Incineroar :Incineroar:
104+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 192 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Brionne: 36-43 (11.6 - 13.9%) -- possible 8HKO
104+ Atk Incineroar Darkest Lariat vs. 192 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Brionne: 112-133 (36.3 - 43.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

0 SpA Liquid Voice Brionne Hyper Voice vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 198-234 (53.6 - 63.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
104+ Atk Incineroar Darkest Lariat vs. 192 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Brionne: 112-133 (36.3 - 43.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
0 SpA Liquid Voice Brionne Hyper Voice vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 198-234 (53.6 - 63.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Avalugg :Avalugg:
0 SpA Liquid Voice Brionne Hyper Voice vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 184-217 (55.2 - 65.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
248+ Def Choice Band Avalugg Body Press vs. 192 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Brionne: 169-199 (54.8 - 64.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 SpA Liquid Voice Brionne Hyper Voice vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 184-217 (55.2 - 65.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Goodra :Goodra:
Speed EV's outspeed goodra by one point, Sub T1, all of Goodra's moves can't break it except draco meteor.
In both scenarios, toxic stall with prot+sub while making sure to always have a sub up.
NO

theres 1 viable set. rest, scald, charm, confide
 

Arctovish @ Choice Specs
Ability: Water Absorb
EVs: 252 HP / 144 Def / 96 SpA / 16 SpD
Modest Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Surf
- Ice Beam

Incineroar:
I don't know how I could think of something so ugly for this. Incineroar is somewhat faster but that is not always an advantage. Arctovish has good defense and hp base. This is the worst fit.
104+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 144 Def Arctovish: 153-180 (39.8 - 46.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

with surf
96+ SpA Choice Specs Arctovish Surf vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Incineroar: 326-386 (88.3 - 104.6%) -- 25% chance to OHKO

• Avalugg:
Avalugg unlike the others does not fit very well but it is thought. The weak point here is Body Press which does the following.
248+ Def Choice Band Avalugg Body Press vs. 252 HP / 144 Def Arctovish: 324-382 (84.3 - 99.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
luckily also avalugg is a slow pokemon with a poor special defense. With Surf being faster.
96+ SpA Choice Specs Arctovish Surf vs. 8 HP / 0- SpD Avalugg: 306-360 (91.8 - 108.1%) -- 50% chance to OHKO


• Goodra:
Goodra boasts a very good special defense unlike the previous one. Still we will try to comply. This makes me DM.
124 SpA Goodra Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 16 SpD Arctovish: 183-216 (47.6 - 56.2%) -- 82% chance to 2HKO
having only two options my answer here is Ice Beam where I do this.
96+ SpA Choice Specs Arctovish Ice Beam vs. 248 HP / 0+ SpD Goodra: 192-228 (50.1 - 59.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
While it pains me to say this because i love the fossil mons, Goodra can just acid spray turn 1 and kill with draco the next turn ;-;
 

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