I don't think there will be a war. At least, not now. Fuck. "Good news troops! We're done in the middle east.... hope you like Korean food!" C'mon guys, c'mon! If anything, I suspect the US will try to bribe him out of power and let S. Korea take over or the UN will step in some way and just occupy the country kind of like the Congo, but with less rape. A coup is also something that could happen, but really the country is such an economic shithole I don't think anyone would want it.
also just felt like saying, i feel like most N. Koreans don't enjoy starving so if there was a war, I don't suspect they would likely put up much of a fight. But I guess it depends on how good their propaganda is and all that... (it's probably pretty good).
Like the people of the Soviet Union, most don't have any say in how the government runs or how the transition of the power will happen. Kim Jong Il's government survived hugely due to his cult of personality (see the concept "Dear Leader") and military power; none of these have changed now.
A coup does not depend on economic status at all; a higher ranking general can just as easily steal power through taking control of the military.
The US is in no position to bribe North Korea out of anything. Last time I checked, we tried to bribe North Korea out of nuclear testing with millions of dollars in aid and food, and we promptly sent a huge "FUCK YOU" to them by exploding a dud nuclear bomb underground. Russia and China are the biggest players now, along with South Korea.
As much as I'd like to see a revolution, the propaganda and brainwashing of the North Korean people makes me think that its unlikely.
Personally, this is my favorite scenario. While China doesn't have the best record of human rights, they will probably keep North Korea's military from doing anything stupid (I consider avoidable war stupid) based on economic concerns.
There will be no revolution. As I said above, the cult of personality is strong in North Korea. Furthermore, the strength of the military makes it virtually impossible.
And as for China, it is my utmost desire that China stays the fuck out. While they're the biggest players in the game at the moment, I have suspicions that China has designs on controlling North Korea with its own puppet government, further complicating the reunification process. It's been decades since the hope of the step of reunification has shown, and I'd rather not China come in and start throwing its weight around. However, it is obviously in their best interest to avoid war, so it's a double edged sword.
