Metagame BSS REGULATION F USAGE STATS PREDICTION CONTEST (won by: WhitePhoenixAce)

DragonWhale

It's not a misplay, it's RNG manipulation
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BSS REGULATION F USAGE STATS PREDICTION CONTEST

With the addition of 180 new Pokemon in the Indigo Disk DLC, the BSS metagame will enter a new ruleset with Regulation F! How good are you at predicting metagame trends? Find out here in the second Usage Stats Prediction Contest!

How to play:
Post down below your predictions of what you think will be the top 10 Pokemon in the usage stats at the end of Season 14 (ends January 31), the first season of Regulation F!

Prize:
A Discord Role in the BSS server

Posting format:
Code:
Discord Name (with # if applicable)
1. pokemon name 
2. pokemon name
...
10. pokemon name

Point system:
  • +1 for each Pokemon that you guessed being in the top 10
  • An additional +1 for each Pokemon that you matched the usage rank
  • -1 for each Pokemon that you guessed being outside of the top 20
  • Tiebreaker will be the sum of the rank difference of the 10 Pokemon
Deadline: the start of Season 14 (January 4). You can edit your submissions until then, but after the deadline the thread will be locked.

Once the season ends in a month, we will tally up the results and determine the winner! Happy posting!
 
Things to note:

Forme differences are counted separately in usage stats, EXCEPT FOR OGERPON, which has all formes counted as Ogerpon
 
1. Ogerpon
2. Urshifu RS
3. Flutter Mane
4. Chien Pao
5. Dragonite
6. Landorus Therian
7. Gholdengo
8. Raging Bolt
9. Paradox Entei
10. Ursaluna Blood Moon
 
Dragonwhale
1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Gouging Fire
4. Chien-Pao
5. Ogerpon
6. Iron Bundle
7. Urshifu-RS
8. Ursaluna-BM
9. Gholdengo
10. Porygon2
 
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Dragonite
Flutter Mane
Gouging Fire
Chien-Pao
Ogerpon
Urshifu-S
Ursaluna BM
Heatran
Gholdengo
P2
 
Omastar68
1. Dragonite
2. Ogerpon
3. Flutter Mane
4. Chien Pao
5. Gholdengo
6. Urshifu Rapid-Strike
7. Walking Wake
8. Roaring Moon
9. Porygon2
10. Ursaluna Blood Moon
 
Albyness

1. Dragonite
2. Urshifu R-S
3. Flutter Mane
4. Ogerpon
5. Chien Pao
6. Gholdendo
7. Ursaluna-Blood Moon
8. Gouging Fire
9. Walking Wake
10. Landorus-T
 
Alinzko

1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Ogerpon
4. Gouging Fire
5. Gholdengo
6. Urshifu Rapid-Strike
7. Ursaluna-Bloodmoon
8. Chien-Pao
9. Iron Bundle
10. Porygon2
 
WhitePhoenixAce

1. Dragonite
2. Flutter mane
3. Ogerpon
4. Urshifu water
5. Gholdengo
6. ursaluna blood moon
7. Chien Pao
8. Latios
9. iron bundle
10. Swampert
 
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_noved
1.Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Urshifu Rapid Strike
4. Gholdengo
5. Ogerpon
6. Ursaluna-BM
7. Chien-Pao
8. Chi-Yu
9. Gouging Fire
10. Ting-Lu
 
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_atr
1.Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Ogerpon
4. Gholdengo
5. Urshifu Rapid Strike
6. Ursaluna-BM
7. Chien-Pao
8. Gouging Fire
9. Porygon 2
10. Chi-Yu
 
the.squash
1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Ogerpon
4. Ursaluna-BM
5. Gouging Fire
6. Urshifu-Rapid-Strike
7. Gholdengo
8. Chien-Pao
9. Ting-Lu
10. Garganacl
 
mynameisoranges

1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Ogerpon
4. Gouging Fire
5. Gholdengo
6. Chien-Pao
7. Urshifu-Rapid-Strike
8. Ursaluna-Blood-Moon
9. Chi-Yu
10. Iron Bundle
 
LosOjosRojos

1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Ogerpon
4. Urshifu-R
5. Gholdengo
6. Ursaluna-BM
7. Chien-Pao
8. Porygon2
9. Walking Wake
10. Gouging Fire
 
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The season has ended and we have our top 10!
1706854712687.png


Once again, let's have a look at some interesting facts before we get into the results:

First of all, we repeat our community streak of NOBODY PREDICTING THE FIRST PLACE POKEMON CORRECTLY. 13/14 predictions put Dragonite in first place, and Aldrich put Ogerpon.

Speaking of Aldrich, this is a bit of a spoiler for the results below but if he used the same prediction as his Regulation E prediction, he would've won this time with 12 points. Goes to show how little the Indigo Disk impacted the top 10 lol, and how perfect match luck is important (he got 5).

Going back to our community streaks, NOBODY GUESSED SCIZOR TO BE TOP 10 AGAIN. Time is just a flat circle my friends. Nobody guessed Archaludon either, so perhaps our community is just underestimating steel types.

In terms of frauds, Gouging Fire had 12 votes and barely scratched into the top 20. If that mon was out the results would've changed a ton (since lower than 20th gives -1 points). Walking Wake had 3 and was the lowest ranking Pokemon out of all the contestants in 50th (ignoring the meme Sudowoodo).

On the topic of over/underestimating Pokemon, lets have a look at the most overhyped/underhyped pokemon.

1706857036988.png


Unsurprisingly, Scizor was the most underhyped, with Archaludon's number being low because it was 10th (non-guesses are assumed to be 11th). Landorus-T was underhyped as it went up in usage this season despite some of its worst enemies from past generations coming back, like Porygon2 and Primarina.

Surprisingly, there weren't too many overhyped Pokemon in the top 10, with Dragonite and Chien-Pao only averaging one rank above what they actually were. The real frauds are way down below, with Iron Bundle and Gouging Fire ending up in really disappointing placements.

As usual, we now go on to see the community average vote:

1706857533538.png


Nothing to say here that hasn't been said already, honestly. Pretty hilarious that nobody switched the Dragonite and Flutter Mane top 2 around to get a bonus 2 points ahead of everyone else.

Anyway, without further ado, here are the results:

1706858688744.png


Congratulations to Whitephoenixace on winning!

It was a close one for sure, with the two 11 pointers only getting 7/10 correct with 1 out-of-20th each, clutching it with 5 perfects. All of their perfects were the same (Ogerpon, Urshifu-R, Gholdengo, Ursaluna-BM, Chien-Pao). The main difference was the Swampert (21st) predicted by White compared to Rojos's Walking Wake (50th).

Nobody got 8/10 correct, Omastar clutched their way out of last place this time, Crayfish died with Sudowoodo, and Atr gets the best differential for the second competition in a row.

If you notice any mistakes that I've made, let me know.
Thanks to everyone for playing and we'll be back for the next metagame prediction contest!

Until Next Time, See Ya
 
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Well cool to not lose most anyway. It's interesting, a mon few/none picked is #10, and quite a few were named that don't appear. But even though discrepancies abound, no one else picked roaring moon(who, while ofc not top ten, is not 20 or 50 like, iirc, gouging and wake were.) Must be excitement over new toys, as it seemed really plausible to make it.
 
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