CAP 30 - Part 7 - Threats Discussion

[Tadasuke]

CAP 30 So Far

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In this stage, we will try to analyze which Pokemon sets could threaten or be threatened by us. Based on our typing, ability, chosen defining moves, and concept we will decide which specific threats we should focus on later stages, and which ones should be mostly left alone. Then, the Topic Leader will organize them into a list, following this basic format:

• Switch in: The list of Pokemon on which we should be able to have a easy time switching in and then forcing them out, more than once in a game. This doesn't mean that we should be able to come into any of their moves, just their most commonly used ones.
• Pressure: The list of Pokemon that might threaten us, but should not be able to switch in easily. They should not be able to check us easily.
• Checks and Counters: The list of Pokemon should, in some way, threaten us. This might mean that they will probably be able to beat us 1v1, or at least severely cripple us. Certain Pokemon, in particular Revenge Killers might be included both in here and in Pressure, because once they switch in, they should be able to check us.

This threatlist should serve as a guideline for the rest of the project. However, this is not set in stone, and might change later if the Topic Leadership Team deems it necessary.

The following is a set of questions that we should try to answer during this discussion:

• Going specifically by typing and ability, what Pokemon found in the CAP metagame will be able to comfortably give this project trouble?
• What Pokemon will be major threats to this project right off the bat?
• What Pokemon have the potential to become counters?
• What Pokemon may end up as threats, but must be contained or dealt with per the concept?
• Will the concept succeed with this list of threats?
• Is this list of threats acceptable for the project?
• What Pokemon will be threatened by the CAP based off of typing?
• Are these Pokemon targets that we want CAP to hit?
• Will these targets be "unavoidable" to threaten based solely on the typing?
• What direction must the project go in now that a set list of basic threats has been identified?
• What must be done in order to make these threats "wanted counters" or these threats be eliminated from counter discussion?
• Are there any Pokemon that we want to completely counter?

No individual post has to answer every question.

Guidelines:

1) Pay close attention to the Topic Leader during this discussion. Their job is to keep us focused and to bring insight.
2) Do not poll jump. Poll jumping is a serious offense in these threads, and you can get infracted for it. Poll jumping is when you discuss something that should be discussed in the future, like specifying a CAP's stats or typing. You're allowed to hint at such things to conclude a point or to provide an example, but do not centralize your post on a poll jump. Poll jumping hurts the focus of early threads and can cause us to go off on a tangent. If you're not sure if a particular argument is poll jumping or not, err on the side of caution and don't post it.
3) Refer to Pokemon by specific sets. This way we can clearly identify which specific sets we should be focusing on, and what specific characteristics makes us threaten or threatened by them. Adding complete movesets, EV spreads and Natures is recommended, but not mandatory.
4) Assume that Stealth Rock in on both sides of the field, unless otherwise specified. This can be changed by the Topic Leader during the discussion.
4) This are the exact definitions of check and counter that we will be working with:

-Pokémon A checks a Pokémon B set if, when Pokémon A is given a free switch into that Pokémon B set, Pokémon A can win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.
-Pokémon A counters a Pokémon B set if Pokémon A can manually switch into that Pokémon B set, and still win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.

 

[Wulfanator]

Alright! We made a last-minute shuffle with the stage ordering to have threats before defining moves. This information will influence potential offensive biases, so we deemed it necessary to have it established ahead of time. This stage will also be slightly more involved than a traditional threats stages since we have two forms. I plan to run the stage in waves where we address switch-ins, pressures, and checks & counters separately but cover both forms in each section.

Let’s start by identifying switch-in opportunities for both forms.

It might be helpful to use the CAP Viability Rankings so we avoid discussing mons that have little impact on the current meta.

Switch-Ins:

30b: Seeing as we want to design 30b to be a tank, our ability to take hits is very important. Our typing offers us some key resistances that make matchups against certain fairies and ground types favorable. While these matchups are important to identify, they are often obvious, and we will probably be able to naturally exploit these matchups regardless of if we identify them. Tanks appreciate being able to take neutral hits as much as resisted hits. With this threats stage, it is valuable for us to identify mons we would like to target in addition to the mons we naturally resist.

• What are some of the easiest mons we can switch in on based solely on our typing?
• What mons are we capable of switching in on by using stamina?
• Are there any other matchups we should build 30b to switch in on that is not already possible with our ability or typing?

30i: This form will want to manage its switch-ins opportunities given the fact it is a flying-type that cannot make use of heavy-duty boots. Our ability to switch in will also dictate how regularly we can provide utility. Since typing is shared between the forms, 30i has the same key resistances provided by Poison/Flying. Also, 30i can use its item to mitigate potential issues with knock off since it is weakened, and we still get to keep our item.

• Since 30i is intended to be a wallbreaker, what defensive Pokémon are we able to switch into?
• Since hp management is more important with this form, what mons are we willing to trade hp for an opportunity to switch in?
• What switch-in opportunities pose the least risk to 30i?
• Are there any offensive mons we should attempt to switch in on in conjunction with our desire to be a wallbreaker?

If there are any other elements of switch-ins you find important and that I failed to address in my post and questions, please feel free to bring attention to them.

 

[dex]

• What are some of the easiest mons we can switch in on based solely on our typing?
• What mons are we capable of switching in on by using stamina?
• Are there any other matchups we should build 30b to switch in on that is not already possible with our ability or typing?

1. Based solely on typing, Fairy-types are a clear cut switch in opportunity for CAP30b. Tapu Fini and Jumbao both loathe this typing. Clefable does as well, but pressures CAP30b with Knock Off, so that may not be the safest of switches. Ground-types are another group that CAP30b can switch into. Landorus-T lacking Knock Off cannot touch CAP30b meaningfully, Hippowdon is straight up walled by the typing, and Garchomp cannot hit the typing that hard if it lacks Stone Edge.
2. Astrolotl has an interesting interaction with Stamina in that it really cannot effectively use Fire Lash to force CAP30b out. There is potential to switch into a Zeraora coverage move, but switching into Plasma Fists is a big ask. Switching into Torn-T lacking Knock Off is an interesting concept, as it is somewhat punished for clicking U-turn.
3. I like the idea of matching up well into Slowking-Galar, as it can't meaningfully damage the typing bar Psychic. While this might seem like a tall task, having a positive matchup into Urshifu-R is an interesting idea to explore. While Surging Strikes ignores Stamina, it does give CAP30b all of the boosts.

• Since 30i is intended to be a wallbreaker, what defensive Pokémon are we able to switch into?
• Since hp management is more important with this form, what mons are we willing to trade hp for an opportunity to switch in?
• What switch-in opportunities pose the least risk to 30i?
• Are there any offensive mons we should attempt to switch in on in conjunction with our desire to be a wallbreaker?

1. I think there are a plethora of Pokemon that CAP30i should be able to fairly easily switch into based off of typing alone. Landorus-T is an easy choice, as it has no way of dealing with CAP30i. Hippowdon is another Ground-type that 30i can pretty freely switch in on. Tapu Fini and Clefable lacking Thunder Wave both present opportunities for CAP30i. Arghonaut is another defensive staple that struggles with the typing.
2. Jumbao is an easy answer to this question, as CAP30i resists all of its moves. I think switching into Tapu Fini should be another target of ours. Rillaboom is another mon that should be fairly easy to switch into given the 4x resistance to Grass. There are other mons like Heatran, Astrolotl, and Volcarona that I see merit in being able to switch in on, but these are more reliant on coverage or stats.
3. Jumbao and Rillaboom pose little to no risk to the typing. Rillaboom can pivot, but just denying Grassy Glide is quite nice. As previously mentioned, defensive Ground-types come up short against the typing as well.
4. I already mentioned the offensive mons I think we should target: Tapu Fini, Rillaboom, and Jumbao. I also think there is a lot of merit to switching into Heatran effectively.

 

[Da Pizza Man]

What are some of the easiest mons we can switch in on based solely on our typing?
: Double Resistance to its STAB and we resist most of its common coverage as well
: Same case as Rillaboom
: Literally can't do anything to us
: Outside of Thunderbolt, which is quite rare (Unless you are playing against DetroitLolCat), this can't do much to us apart from Knock Off.
: Similar case to Clefable, we don't like Stone Edge, but that move is quite rare, and we also don't like Explosion, but that move isn't really seen outside of Hyper Offense.

What mons are we capable of switching in on by using stamina?

: While Status can suck quite a bit, our ability granting us an essential immunity to Fire Lash's secondary effect makes this a pretty good mon to switch-in on.
(w/o Stone Edge): We are immune to Earthquake to begin with and Scale Shot being a multi-hit move can get our Defense to insane Levels and essentially allow us to just ignore Swords Dance on the next hit. We are weak to Stone Edge though, but that move is fairly rare in this metagame and that slot is usually taken up by Fire Coverage, which is either coming off of a weak move (Fire Fang) or off of Garchomp's lower Special Attack (Fire Blast), so we aren't super concerned on that front either.
(if we lost our item): Poltergeist can do quite a bit, but if we have already had our item knocked off (Which is fairly likely given that a lot of stuff we want to switch-in on runs Knock Off) then we can potentially just straight up wall this since its other moves aren't very good at dealing repeated damage to us.

Are there any other matchups we should build 30b to switch in on that is not already possible with our ability or typing?

(w/o Psychic): Like dex said, being able to switch-in on this and switching out as soon as Future Sight is about to hit us is a very cool idea. I don't think we would have to do too much to make this feasible either.
: Similar situation to Galarian Slowking here, except now we don't have to worry about the threat of Super-Effective STAB. It's also very helpful that we already have a fairly positive matchup against many of its partners as well.


Since 30i is intended to be a wallbreaker, what defensive Pokémon are we able to switch into?
:Same case as 30b except now we don't even care about Knock Off
: Read Clefable
: Same deal as with 30b
: Similar situation with Landorus-Therian. We are immune to Earthquake and Toxic and don't take a whole lot from Knock Off either due to our pseudo resistance to it granted by our Orb. We don't like Flame Orb Sets though, but those are hardly something I can call defensive are are beyond the scope of this question.
: Obviously we aren't going to like a burn from Scald, especially if we end up going physical, but outside of that we don't care about anything it has to do.
: We don't like being phased out with Circle Throw due to our weakness to Rocks and inability to hold Heavy-Duty Boots, but if Rocks aren't up then we just straight up don't care about anything it has to do to us
and : Grouping these two together since they are very similar to each other. We don't care about any of their attacks apart from Brave Bird (Which isn't super common on Skarmory).

Since hp management is more important with this form, what mons are we willing to trade hp for an opportunity to switch in?
For the most part dex answered this question better than I think I could. Only thing I really disagree with him on is that I think trying to switch-in on Volcarona is sort of hopeless, especially if it is running Psychic.

What switch-in opportunities pose the least risk to 30i?
I would mostly say the afformentioend Grass Types and Ground Types, since most of them do very little damage to us, if at all, and in the case of Grass Types we force them out through our typing alone.

Are there any offensive mons we should attempt to switch in on in conjunction with our desire to be a wallbreaker?
: This might be a bit of a tall order, given just how much we are going to be worn down over time here and Heatran's access to Taunt, I don't think it's unreasonable for us to aim to turn this into a switch-in.

Other than that, I feel like we already switch-in on most of the mons we would want to switch-in on through virtue of our typing alone.

 

[Brambane]

30b: Skipping question 1 and 2 since they are covered well above, and were discussed at length during typing and especially ability stages.
Are there any other matchups we should build 30b to switch in on that is not already possible with our ability or typing?
I think Glowking is an interesting one, since the Pokemon naturally has a lot of tools to beat us anyways (well, mostly Psychic and Psyshock). I would be intrigued if we can actually tackle that MU reasonably well, or at least force non-Future Sight Psychic moves on more Glowking. Dragapult is a VERY low hanging fruit to bump this mon's viability and splashability on teams. If you can handle Specs Dragapult and have some form of vital utility, you can reasonably be slotted onto a lot of teams. If we are bulky enough to handle SpecsPult, Heatran probably isn't too far behind either. Agreeing with dex that being able to switch-in on Urshi's Surging Strikes would be cool, although if given the choice, I would rather give up being an amazing Urshi answer for a better Pult and Tran MU.

30i: Honestly I would probably just be echoing dex's post. I think Buzzwole, specifically big Ice Punch, is probably a reasonable benchmark for a mon we wouldn't mind trading some HP for the the switch. We obv threaten it super easily even with low BP STAB. How much HP we are trading should be left to stat submissions imo.

Not much else to say, we kind of grazed a little on the questions in the previous stages; played large role in ability and typing choices.

 

[Amamama]

• What are some of the easiest mons we can switch in on based solely on our typing?
• What mons are we capable of switching in on by using stamina?
• Are there any other matchups we should build 30b to switch in on that is not already possible with our ability or typing?

Garchomp,Jumbao,Buzzwole,Hippowdon SkarmFerro, (Defensive) Tapu Buluand Kerfluffle are all pretty obvious switch in opportunities.
Garchomp and Buzzwole both have moves, that are SE vs Poison/Flying but either they only run it rarely or they are weak base power and the physical nature of the moves makes it easier and easier to tank through the hits.
Imo aside of the mons we also threaten with our STAB (Bao, Buzz, Bulu and Kerf) Garchomp is the Standout here because 30b is either immune to or gets multiple stamina boosts from its main Attacks.

There’s also a category of mons, that we easily switch in on, without taking a lot of damage, but which annoy 30b with the threat of Knock Off.
While we lose our item, we also get a defense boost from it, so it’s not entirely a bad trade off, especially since these are some of the highest ranking defensive Pokémon, some of which 30b threatens with STAB.
Lando T,Clefable, Arghonaut and are the most important in this category. I’ll also groupRilla andKart here.

Stamina expands this list, through granting us basically a resist against physical attackers after the first hit.
Mons that will struggle with this, even though our typing doesn’t resist their moves areCorviknight,Melmetal, as well asDragoniteHawlucha and various lower ranked physical attackers, that don’t hit us SE and haven’t boosted themselves.

Considering, that 30b already has a long list of good Match ups against a wide range of top tier mons I don’t think it’s necessary to give it more possible opportunities. If anything strenghthening its match up vs. Tapu Fini and Heatran, through stats or moves looks interesting to me.

• Since 30i is intended to be a wallbreaker, what defensive Pokémon are we able to switch into?
• Since hp management is more important with this form, what mons are we willing to trade hp for an opportunity to switch in?
• What switch-in opportunities pose the least risk to 30i?
• Are there any offensive mons we should attempt to switch in on in conjunction with our desire to be a wallbreaker?

In general the list of possible switch ins for 30i looks pretty similar to 30b. While there are some mons like Melm, Chomper and Buzz, that it will have a harder Time taking on without Stamina, it’s item grants it a valuable Knock Off resist, which improves the opportunities of switching in on the Knock off users, that 30b doesn’t necessarily like to take on.
Lando,Clef and Arghonaut stand out among the defensive mons 30i will have an easy time coming in vs. Other lower ranked defensive Pokémon, that don’t commonly run moves to touch 30b and which pose a low risk for switch ins are Skarm,Ferro andHippo.
While they aren’t defensive PokémonRilla and Kart will likely have a lot of trouble dealing with 30i unless we drop defenses very low.

I think, that 30i has an incredibly strong defensive Match Up against almost every hazard setter in the tier barring Tran and Astro (which still are neutral Match Ups that can be improved on through Stats or moves), contrary to what it’s stealth rock weakness implies. Some of these mons don’t have a single move on their common sets, that threatens 30i.

Imo these might be key switch ins, that 30i will like to trade for an opportunity to keep hazards of the field for itself and its Teammates, (either though offensive pressure or utility)
Additionally 30i can switch into some powerful attackers thanks to its great set of resists, including Shifu R (if choice locked or predicted Close Combat),Bao,Fini,Rilla,Bulu,Buzz andKart, which might still do a lot of damage, but which it also threatens Super effectively.

 

[spoo]

30b:

• What are some of the easiest mons we can switch in on based solely on our typing?
• What mons are we capable of switching in on by using stamina?
• Are there any other matchups we should build 30b to switch in on that is not already possible with our ability or typing?

The first two questions have been covered nicely already- Jumbao is probably the single mon we target most easily with this typing but Tapu Fini is a nice target as well (though it can cripple with trick & cm could potentially beat us if we are a special attacker - same with clefable), Hippowdon does legit nothing, and we do very well against Landorus/Clefable/Rillaboom/Ferrothorn at the cost of potentially losing our item (although Landorus most often runs toxic>knock). Stamina means we have an ideal matchup against Dragonite and non-stone edge Garchomp, the most Melmetal will be able to do is paralyze us (tbf this is actually really annoying), Kartana is probably within our reach, Astrolotl doesn't bother us bar wisp if we're physical, and we can probably tank one unboosted triple axel from Weavile. Honestly there isn't that huge of a list of targets for Stamina, but Garchomp alone is pretty valuable.

For the third question- Stamina by itself should guarantee us a positive/neutral matchup against the majority of physical attackers, so I adamantly believe we should build 30b to be able to beat common strong special wallbreakers, namely Dragapult and Heatran. It's very easy to believe that these Pokemon are out of our reach without resisting their STAB, but that doesn't have to be the case. Many Pokemon check these threats through stats alone; spdf Hippowdon is a decent check to both, Toxapex fears very little from Dragapult, spdf Landorus-T is invaluable in the Heatran matchup and provides great utility against Dragault as well, Clefable and Tapu Fini help against Dragapult's shadow ball, bulky steel-types like Scizor and Corviknight do much the same, and the list goes on. Like brambane said, these Pokemon are low-hanging fruit which can provide us a huge selling point in the teambuilder, and checking them guarantees us a defined and needed niche in the metagame. Slowking-galar has also been brought up, but I'm skeptical about this; Scald will threaten us if we're physical, and if we're a special attacker then there's almost no way we will ever be able to force it out.

30i:

• Since 30i is intended to be a wallbreaker, what defensive Pokémon are we able to switch into?
• Since hp management is more important with this form, what mons are we willing to trade hp for an opportunity to switch in?
• What switch-in opportunities pose the least risk to 30i?
• Are there any offensive mons we should attempt to switch in on in conjunction with our desire to be a wallbreaker?

Mostly echoing others here- Clefable/Landorus/Ferro/Colossoil/Hippowdon/Arghonaut are excellent switch-in opportunities, while Skarm/non-BB Corv are also possible targets if we have enough power to break through (probably questionable for skarm). Other bulky-water types might be too dangerous, though; if we're physical, we don't want to switch in on scald from Slowking/Slowbro/Toxapex, and even if we get in safely they can probably stay in and fish for a burn. Scarf Tapu Fini's hydro pump will likely 2hko (especially factoring in potential BB recoil), and CM sets may be too difficult to break through regardless of our offensive bias given spdf boosting or physical bulk + damaging ourselves with BB + the threat of scald burns.

Buzzwole/Jumbao/Rillaboom look like targets we can definitely switch in on and take a hit from, not much more to say about those. I kinda have trouble thinking of other offensive Pokemon that we should try to be able to switch in on; the three targets I listed are probably the closest we'll get, as anything else will either do too much damage or we won't really be able to force it out. Maybe Kartana or Revenankh? It would be nice if we could switch into Heatran, but I feel like that goal may be unrealistic. Magma storm is a very strong move, and factoring in potential recoil from BB, I see this as a reach - not impossible, but maybe not something we should count on either.

 

[Astra]

Most of the stuff I would want to say has been said already, unfortunately, though I do still would like to provide something of hopeful substance. This is just going to be a list of what I think CAP30b's matchups would be against the Pokemon currently listed in the viability rankings up to A- rank.

This matchup honestly depends on how specially bulky we decide to make CAP30b, and even then, all of Dragapult's options hit neutrally and don't care about Stamina. CAP30b could just end up as a last resort against it, but again, that depends on how specially defensive we make it.

Landorus-T can't really do much against us when it's not running Knock Off, so this matchup could potentially be in CAP30b's favor, especially if we make it specially bias. CAP30b also discourages it from pivoting out with U-turn because of Stamina, which is nice, and forcing it out lets it utilize some of its utility pretty safely.

Heatran probably has an edge against CAP30b if it can get on the field first, since Magma Storm would most likely be a pain to deal with. However, if CAP30b is on the field first, it could have an edge over Heatran if we happen to give it Body Press. If we go that route, this matchup could go either way depending on the situation.

Weavile definitely has the upper hand here. CAP30b would most likely never want to switch in directly into Weavile unless its initial physical bulk is really good, and even then that option is still fringe at best. Triple Axel activating Stamina upon each hit is funny, though.

CAP30b would most likely be able to force Clefable out depending on how hurt Clefable is and whether or not it's faster, though Clefable's utility in Knock Off and Thunder Wave could be a bit of a pain. Besides that, though, I think CAP30b has a little bit of an initial edge.

This matchup would probably suck for CAP30b. The best damage option for Galarian Slowking would most likely be Brave Bird, and even then CAP30b would be hurting itself more because of Regenerator. Future Sight also makes this matchup not in CAP30b's favor.

I think this matchup is pretty even, but a potential Knock Off from Tornadus-T could be unfortunate. It healing itself with Regenerator could also be annoying, but besides that, I could see CAP30b potentially holding some ground against it.

Surging Strikes doesn't care about CAP30b's Stamina boost, so Urshifu-R definitely has the edge here. If it's Choice Band, though, CAP30b could switch on a predicted Close Combat or something to force it out, but that's obviously risky.

Unless CAP30b had gotten any Stamina boosts beforehand, Zeraora most likely wins this matchup with Plasma Fists. Pivoting out with Volt Switch would also leave a dent in it, too.

CAP30b can probably force Arghonaut out pretty easily, but again, switching into its Knock Off is an unfortunate downside.

I don't think either Pokemon in this matchup has an advantage against the other. If anything, Corviknight would most likely switch out and not bother attacking CAP30b to prevent giving it Stamina boosts, so I guess CAP30b can get some free utility usage out of that.

CAP30b could potentially do alright against Garchomp as long as it's not running Stone Edge. Getting Stamina boost off of Scale Shot is nice, but it still may be a pain to deal with if it has an initial Swords Dance boost. This matchup is pretty dependent on what tools we give CAP30b, in this case.

CAP30b initial great advantage against Jumbao simply because of its typing has already been discussed a lot in the post before this one. Being a switch-in for one of the best CAPs in the current metagame is already a big plus.

This matchup is pretty ass for CAP30b. A potential switch-in on a predicted Focus Blast or Earth Power could be nice, but the possibility of Kyurem running Draco Meteor and the fact that its Ice-type moves are the option it more frequently uses makes it have a big advantage here.

Again, I think this matchup depends on what tools we give CAP30b. The Stamina boosts are neat, but Knock Off, as usual, is a risk to face against Scizor. Depending on that, Scizor would likely be forced out or granted free turns to do whatever.

I think CAP30b has a nice natural advantage against Tapu Fini at the moment. At most, Tapu Fini could dent it a little bit with a niche Whirlpool + Nature's Madness set, but it'll be forced to switch eventually, and the fact it lacks any sort of reliable recovery makes that action more urgent.

I don't see a scenario where CAP30b is the faster one in this matchup, so Tapu Koko definitely just wins here.

Toxapex in my opinion has a slight edge over CAP30b because, once again, it can cripple it with Knock Off. Haze is also good to remove all of its Stamina boosts, and Scald would be annoying to face if CAP30b will be running physical moves.

CAP30b would probably have the advantage against Buzzwole all of the time when it's not running Ice Punch. Even if Buzzwole is running Ice Punch, though, CAP30b can still force it out easily since the Stamina boosts really help with tanking them. This is dependent on whether or not CAP30b will have access to some sort of recovery move, however.

CAP30b probably won't be able to do anything against Melmetal just because of Melmetal's typing, natural strength, and moves like Thunder Punch and Thunder Wave.

CAP30b probably won't be able to do anything to Skarmory and would most likely need to switch out to prevent it from setting Spikes or something.

Slowking has the natural advantage here because of Future Sight. If CAP30b runs special moves, its natural special bulk will tank it, and if CAP30b runs physical moves, Scald will be annoying.

Like the Pokemon mentioned before that commonly run Choice items, CAP30b at most can switch into a predicted resisted move, but the fact that Choice Specs Tapu Lele can very easily just spam its Psychic-type moves as long as they're no Dark-type switch-in makes this matchup complete ass for CAP30b.

At most, CAP30b could cripple Zapdos with Toxic on the switch, but besides that, Zapdos definitely has a natural advantage here.

Just to sum all of the above because you're definitely too lazy to read it all, here's a summary of all of CAP30b's matchups:

Naturally Good Advantage:
Good Advantage but Knock Off Sucks:
Naturally Somewhat Neutral Matchup:
Naturally Somewhat Neutral Matchup but Knock Off Sucks:
Matchup Depends on CAP30b's Moves and Stats:
Matchup Depends on Foe's Moves:
Offensively a Pain in the Ass:
Pain in the Ass Because of Their Utility:
Potentially Both of the Two Categories Above:

I might make another post doing the same thing with the Pokemon below A-, but that depends on my mood and my decision to study for my computer science midterm or not.

 

[Wulfanator]

I am very happy with the switch-ins discussion. I think we are set to move onto the pressures. Before we move on, I will recap some of the mons mentioned a lot for switch-ins. This list can still change depending on if people continue to comment on switch-ins and as I continue to review it with the TLT.

Safe/Situational/Shaky/Stretch Explaination

Safe: Based on what we have determined so far, we can switch into these Pokemon the vast majority of the time with no issues, regardless of the set.
Situational: Based on what we have determined so far, we can switch into these Pokemon most of the time, although they occasionally carry moves that threaten us.
Shaky: Based on what we have determined so far, we can switch into these Pokemon fairly safely, although they frequently carry moves that can inconvenience us.
Stretch: Depending on how stats and moves go, we may be capable of switching in on these Pokemon fairly safely.

Thank you for the breakdown kjnjkmjk1

30b:
Safe Switch-ins:
Situational Switch-ins: (defensive)
Shaky Switch-ins:
Stretch Switch-ins (optional):

30i:
Safe Switch-ins: (utility) (defensive)
Shaky Switch-ins: (w/o psychic)



Pressures:

Pressures typically refer to the mons that struggle to switch in on us. They are scared to switch in directly either because of the damage we can deal or how we can cripple them. These mons might be able to check us once they are in, but we make it difficult to get them in safely.

In this discussion, I would also like to identify mons that can threaten us on switch-in but that we threaten once we get in. I want to be able to identify the mons we pressure if they try to come in as well as the mons we pressure once we are in.

30b: Being a tank, we will have some offensive presence in conjunction with our defensive capabilities. These pressures will help influence offensive benchmarks and speed tiers when the stats stage begins.

30i: The fact that this form has access to Tinted Lens and is locked to its custom orb means we can potentially threaten more mons than normal. Also, the utility element of our role can be useful for pressuring mons. While we do not know exactly what this utility will be, it is good to account for our options in this discussion.

I see there being a lot of overlap for this part of the discussion, so I will ask questions regarding both forms (unless otherwise specified) For both 30b and 30i, use the following questions to identify where our list of pressures overlap and what is unique.

1. What mons can both forms naturally pressure from coming in because of Poison/Flying STAB?
2. What mons can 30i pressure because of Tinted Lens + orb?
3. How does 30i’s unavoidable rocks weakness impact its ability to pressure other mons?
4. What mons should each form pressure because of stats and/or coverage? Should this list be the same or different for each form?
5. What mons might we pressure with utility?
6. What mons should we pressure once we are safely in?

 

[Brambane]

Pressures:

Pressures typically refer to the mons that struggle to switch in on us. They are scared to switch in directly either because of the damage we can deal or how we can cripple them. These mons might be able to check us once they are in, but we make it difficult to get them in safely.

In this discussion, I would also like to identify mons that can threaten us on switch-in but that we threaten once we get in. I want to be able to identify the mons we pressure from coming in as well as the mons we pressure once we are in.

This is confusingly worded imo. I assume "we pressure from coming in" is supposed to be "we can switch-in on and pressure out."

What mons can both forms naturally pressure from coming in because of Poison/Flying STAB?
From the upper VR, our STAB hits: Clefable, Urshifu, Arghonaut, Jumbao, Tapu Fini, Tapu Koko, Tapu Lele, Buzzwole, Rillaboom, Tapu Bulu, Volcarona, Tomohawk, Revenankh, Kommo-o (why is this mon the same rank as Rev??? ), Syclant, Hawlucha, Venusaur
edit: THANKS VR FOR UPDATING WHILE I POSTED list is still mostly relevant

What mons can 30i pressure because of Tinted Lens + orb?
Theoretically, anything. The nature of Tinted Lens Flying is that there are NO safe-switchins except Magnezone and couple weird fringe mons like Stakataka. As such, what we will pressure needs to be determined more by specific damage benchmarks from our stat distribution and the base power of our STAB moves. A benefit of our item is it actually simplifies this process, since we don't need to design stats with different item choices in mind. As for what benchmarks we want to hit specifically, well, I think that is a much more in-depth question that also ties into some of the utility or coverage options we afford 30i.

How does 30i’s unavoidable rocks weakness impact its ability to pressure other mons?
It reverses some pressure back onto 30i for sure, although perhaps not quite as bad as we might think. A lot of the common rockers don't naturally run options to hit 30i. Clefable and Lando-T would have to tweak their moveset, Heatran has to hit Magma Storm (I am half memeing, since the risk of missing Magma Storm is a real thing), Hippo is food. Of the occasional Ferrothorn, Tomohawk, Tyranitar, and Kommo-o, only TTar poses an immediate threat. Being able to switch in on the Rockers while they are, well, rocking, allows us some leeway for avoiding damage AND getting 30i in safely. If Rocks are up, then 30i is not able to pressure the opponent as freely, especially if we roll with Brave Bird or Hurricane as STABs, due to the former's recoil and the latter's miss chance. It would be extra vulnerable to aggressive doubling depending on our Speed tier as well, due to naturally being weak to fast Electric and Ice STABs.

What mons should each form pressure because of stats and/or coverage? Should this list be the same or different for each form?
I think coverage for some of the common Steels is a safe bet, not only because ofc it is, look at our typing, but also because assuming Body Press is not even polljumping, its reading between the lines of Stamina winning. Depending on Stamina boosts and our Defense offensive benchmarks (this was ugly to write) we can pressure Blissey, Heatran, Kyurem, Ferrothorn, Melmetal, Arctozolt, Magnezone, Equilibra, Bisharp, Tyranitar, Hydreigon, and Excadrill. Honestly Poison/Flying/Fighting is pretty cool coverage; the Steel/Flyers might still get in the way for 30b based on that coverage, but that's fine. Not immediately pressuring Skarmory is especially nice, since that Pokemon can serve as a natural counter to 30b; it can Whirlwind us out and remove the Stamina boosts. And Skarmory also ensures you can 6-0 reverse sweep PhysSpam HO, so its useful for more than just 30b.

30i is a lot weirder, since what this form pressures is almost entirely dependent on stats. There are a couple defensive mons it probably would run 4x SE coverage for, like Ferrothorn and Scizor. However, unless we go for really low BP STABs, most 2x coverage moves are going to be outdamaged by our STABs.

Imo the list of what each one pressures is probably going to overlap by the nature of our roles. With identical typing, a TL Wallbreaker is probably going to pressure a lot of the same targets as a Tank, and then some, due to them both having an offensive lean. The best way we could differentiate would be giving them separate ends of the attacking spectrum to work with. A minor, funny note: if we make 30i a physical attacker, we could feasibly design 30b to answer it with Stamina.

What mons might we pressure with utility?
Pressure from utility can come in so many forms that this is tough to answer. I don't want to answer this question without specific moves, especially but not limited to: Toxic, Spore, Taunt, Thunder Wave, Will-o-wisp, stat dropping moves, recovery, Heal Bell, and even pivoting moves. This is a laundry list of utility options we can use to pressure a mountain of different Pokemon. I might make a separate post about this later.

What mons should we pressure once we are safely in?
Both 30i and 30b should be able to reasonably pressure the" Pokemon I answered with for the first question as the bare minimum, as well as those that can't hit our typing. If we cannot pressure these Pokemon, then we somehow missed fruit hanging so low that moles can reach it. I also think that with Tinted Lens on 30i and coverage on 30b that Heatran should definitely be a little nervous coming in. Depending on our attacking spectrum there is the Slow family, which would otherwise pressure us back with Future Sight. Regardless of our form, frail offensive Pokemon should be pressured unless they resist our attacking options by design. Weavile, Zeraora, Arctozolt, and Tapu Koko can pressure us if they are in, but we should be able to pressure them if we are in, or at least force them to eat a lot of damage for switching.

quick edit: worth noting that how much bulk you have accrued from Stamina may also pressure physical attackers since they cannot break you, i.e. Melmetal, so that is fud for thought

 

[Amamama]

What mons can both forms naturally pressure from coming in because of Poison/Flying STAB?

FiniShifuArghClefBaoKokoLeleBuzzAlolatales andRev are all scared of at least one of our STABs. Considering the assigned roles, it is likely that both forms will additionally threaten frail mons, that don’t resist their STAB moves due to CAP 30s high attacking power.
This is especially relevant for 30i as this includes pretty much every Pokémon on the VR, that doesn’t have significant Bulk, as it’s STABs are virtually unresisted.

What mons can 30i pressure because of Tinted Lens + orb?

Because of this 30i additionally can scare offPultWeaveZeraChompTornKyuremZoltAstroZapdos all are in 2hko range assuming fairly moderate offensive power, regardless of Poison or Flying STAB and offensive Bias (note, that some of these are neutral to begin with so they probably also don’t like switching into 30b)

How does 30i’s unavoidable rocks weakness impact its ability to pressure other mons?

It will make it harder to defensively pressure some Pokémon out. I think that Poison/Flying as a defensive typing helps with that, as it gives ample opportunities to come in unscathed on an immunity or 4x resist. Additionally, as Brambane already mentioned 30is ability to switch into the vast majority of rockers will help it not take rocks damage often, as it can immediately pressure the setters.

What mons should each form pressure because of stats and/or coverage? Should this list be the same or different for each form?

I think, considering 30bs offensive shortcomings compared to 30i, we should shore up its offensive coverage with ways to hit (some) steel types (SE), as That will help it not be overshadowed by 30i and also distinguish itself. This means this kind of coverage should be exclusive or at least mostly available only to 30b.
I think that building 30b in a way that it can additionally take on Heatran and maybe Dragapult is a way to ensure it a team slot on a good amount of teams.
I don’t think, Rabat we need to expand on 30is pressure list as it already threatens so much and has a good list of possible switch ins. If anything I think we should look into it’s Anti hazard Match Up and how we can improve that further so it can be self sufficient even without Heavy Duty Boots.

What mons might we pressure with utility?

For 30i I think this should include some of the Fat Pokémon, that otherwise are able to take it on, so it can cripple them and potentially overwhelm them, even if it can’t break through with brute force.

What mons should we pressure once we are safely in?

For 30b I think the most obvious are physical attackers regardless of SE hits. If it can get in safely vs. a physical attacker, Stamina plus recovery will probably ensure it a win, regardless of typing, unless it gets haxed or we opt for fairly low physical bulk.
Being able to force out strong physically offensive mons due to bulk is pretty nice for an offensively inclined Pokémon (eg Melmetal) and gives freedom to trade hits or perform utility.
I think it could be interesting for 30i to threaten some fast and frail Pokémon if it can get in free as it affords it with even more switches, that can make Tinted Lens shine.

 

[Jewvia]

1. What mons can 30i pressure because of Tinted Lens + orb?

I am just going to make a short comment in that, because of the nature of our ability, this depends almost entirely on stats. Based on our typing, STAB Flying that is neutral by default will be a potent punch against anything with low defenses, and less pressuring on anything with high defenses. Electic types like or can no longer switch in safely and take a resisted hit, but instead will take a huge chunk out of their health bar. Same goes for Pokemon like who would traditionally be able to switch in on our combo, but is now seriously in danger moreso than the two electrics mentioned earlier. The higher our offensive stats in 30i, the more things that we pressure through the threat of raw neutral damage.

Literally every Pokemon that isnt a combination of Electric/Rock/Steel is pressured in some form because of this combo, unless its stats are so high that it doesn't care about neutral hits either.

 

[shnowshner]

I am just going to make a short comment in that, because of the nature of our ability, this depends almost entirely on stats. Based on our typing, STAB Flying that is neutral by default will be a potent punch against anything with low defenses, and less pressuring on anything with high defenses. Electic types like or can no longer switch in safely and take a resisted hit, but instead will take a huge chunk out of their health bar. Same goes for Pokemon like who would traditionally be able to switch in on our combo, but is now seriously in danger moreso than the two electrics mentioned earlier. The higher our offensive stats in 30i, the more things that we pressure through the threat of raw neutral damage.

Literally every Pokemon that isnt a combination of Electric/Rock/Steel is pressured in some form because of this combo, unless its stats are so high that it doesn't care about neutral hits either.

Wanted to add on to this point with examples.
These calcs are using an uninvested base 100 Attack/Special Attack with Sharp Beak for the 1.2x damage boost:

vs. ("Frail")

0 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Giratina-Origin Drill Peck vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Zeraora: 132-156 (41.6 - 49.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

0 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Giratina-Origin Air Slash vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Zeraora: 118-138 (37.2 - 43.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

0 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Giratina-Origin Brave Bird vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Zeraora: 196-232 (61.8 - 73.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

0 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Giratina-Origin Hurricane vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Zeraora: 170-202 (53.6 - 63.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Do note that Zera has 10 less Defense than Special Defense (base 75 < 80)


vs. ("Average")

0 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Giratina-Origin Drill Peck vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Krilowatt: 134-158 (30.2 - 35.6%) -- 31.6% chance to 3HKO

0 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Giratina-Origin Air Slash vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Krilowatt: 124-146 (27.9 - 32.9%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

0 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Giratina-Origin Brave Bird vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Krilowatt: 200-236 (45.1 - 53.2%) -- 32.4% chance to 2HKO

0 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Giratina-Origin Hurricane vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Krilowatt: 182-216 (41 - 48.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Kril's defense stats differ by only 2 points so the variance comes almost entirely by BP.

vs. ("Fat")

0 Atk Sharp Beak Giratina-Origin Drill Peck vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 55-66 (18 - 21.7%) -- possible 5HKO

0 SpA Sharp Beak Giratina-Origin Air Slash vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 55-66 (18 - 21.7%) -- possible 5HKO

0 Atk Sharp Beak Giratina-Origin Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 84-99 (27.6 - 32.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

0 SpA Sharp Beak Giratina-Origin Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 81-96 (26.6 - 31.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

Pex also has a difference between Def/SpD as you can tell from the weaker Special moves being nearly or as strong as the Physical ones.

There is a pretty large bulk gap between zero investment Kril and maxed out Pex but this should give a fairly good idea of how Tinted Lens puts emphasis on our combined attack power. Even with my univested spread, we're 2HKOing Zeraora with Hurricane and have a range on Krilowatt with Brave Bird, but dedicated defensive Pokemon like Toxapex comfortably shrug off our attacks. This isn't exactly new information; I imagine our best answers for 30i were always going to be generic fat mons that require SE hits to bust through, as we don't exactly have resists which come in on us outside of a select few.

 

[Astra]

shnowshner's post honestly sums everything up pretty well, but just for the sake of it, I'll be going through the same group of Pokemon in my last post (all of the Pokemon listed in the viability rankings up to A-) and evaluating whether or not they would be valid switch-ins into CAP30i. Won't be doing CAP30b just because I'm pressed for time a little bit. For calculations, I'll be assuming that CAP30i has 100/100 for its attacking stats, maximizing their EVs as well, and using Poison Barb and Sharp Beak to emulate its required held item effect.

These Pokemon just in general would be bad switch-ins solely based on their typings being weak to CAP30i's STAB moves:
Weak to Poison:
Weak to Flying:
Weak to Both (lol):

I know some of these Pokemon would never want to be a direct switch-in in the first place, but this is just to assuming that the scenario is a possible option, no matter how smart or dumb the option is. Just for relevance sake, though, this attribute matters mostly for Clefable, Tapu Fini, Arghonaut, and Buzzwole, since they are the ones that would actually be switching into attacks often. Other Pokemon listed here may be more or less relevant depending on CAP30i's stats, more specifically its Speed.

These Pokemon could potentially be good switch-ins because of their Steel typing:

Of course, how solid these switch-ins can be is dependent on whether or not CAP30i will be primarily a physical or special attacker.
Here are some calculations for these matchups for both attacking paths for CAP30i:

Physical

252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Drill Peck vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 126-148 (32.6 - 38.3%) -- 2.3% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Drill Peck vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Corviknight: 98-116 (24.5 - 29%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Drill Peck vs. 248 HP / 8 Def Scizor: 130-154 (37.9 - 44.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Drill Peck vs. 40 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 96-114 (22.8 - 27%) -- 32.5% chance to 4HKO
252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Drill Peck vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 74-88 (22.1 - 26.3%) -- 8.9% chance to 4HKO

Special

252 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 136+ SpD Heatran: 136-162 (35.2 - 41.9%) -- 81.5% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Hurricane vs. 248 HP / 92 SpD Corviknight: 186-218 (46.6 - 54.6%) -- 9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 248 HP / 252+ SpD Scizor: 150-177 (43.7 - 51.6%) -- 8.2% chance to 2HKO
252 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Hurricane vs. 40 HP / 104 SpD Melmetal: 220-260 (52.2 - 61.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Skarmory: 240-282 (71.8 - 84.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

I know this is kind of virtue of Hurricane being the overall more powerful move over Drill Peck, but just based on these calculations, most of these Steel-types become a lot less optimal as switch-ins for CAP30i. Specifically, Heatran has a higher chance of being 3HKOed by Hurricane, Corviknight can potentially be 2HKOed by Hurricane compared to being 5HKOed by Drill Peck, Scizor can potentially be 2HKOed by Hurricane compared to just being 3HKOed by Drill Peck (though the 2HKO chance is minimal), and Melmetal and Skarmory straight up get 2HKOed by Hurricane compared to getting 4HKOed by Drill Peck.

So, to sum it up, all of these Steel-types will be good switch-ins no matter what, but if CAP30i is specially-orientated, Melmetal, Corviknight, and Skarmory now become shaky switch-ins, and Heatran and Scizor remain relatively unchanged. This is also assuming that CAP30i doesn't have room to run coverage for Steel-types as a whole (which it very well could, but that's thinking a little too ahead).

These Pokemon could potentially be switch-ins based on the fact that they're resistant to Flying:

The list isn't really that long, but I'll save you some time reading calculations: Zeraora being a switch-in is an absolute lie, since it gets 2HKOed by both Drill Peck and Hurricane, but if it's relatively healthy it'll probably force CAP30i to switch out but why would you let your Zeraora take that much damage instead of having an actual answer? For Zapdos, Hurricane is a 2HKO with no Special Defense investment, while Drill Peck is a decent 3HKO, but there's no reason to risk getting paralyzed, and Gunk Shot is a potential 2HKO as well. So, both of these Pokemon aren't really great switch-ins, but you can at least fish for paralysis with Zapdos if you predict Drill Peck.

There's a lot of other Pokemon I didn't cover in this post, but for the sake of time I've placed them all in the summary below. Most of them are self-explanatory, anyways. I'll also be only Pokemon that would actually see itself switching in during a game; assume glass cannons like Weavile aren't optimal switch-ins.

Jumbao:
Bad Switch-ins Based on Typing:
Shaky Switch-ins if CAP30i is a Special Attacker:
Shaky Switch-ins if CAP30i is a Physical Attacker:
Shaky Switch-ins in General:
Potentially Good Switch-ins:

Just as a general statement, CAP30i will obviously benefit more as a special attacker.

Edit: Okay, so I MIGHT’VE forgotten that Brave Bird exists, which is incredibly embarrassing. I’ll edit this later so it actually takes it into account.

Edit 2: Now that I'm aware Brave Bird exists, here are the calculations for it for the Steel-types mentioned:

Brave Bird Calcs

252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 186-220 (48.1 - 56.9%) -- 39.5% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 248 HP / 168+ Def Corviknight: 146-174 (36.5 - 43.6%) -- 99.1% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 248 HP / 8 Def Scizor: 195-229 (56.8 - 66.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 40 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 144-170 (34.2 - 40.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 110-132 (32.9 - 39.5%) -- 99.9% chance to 3HKO

The thing to note here now is that CAP30i seems to do better against Heatran and Scizor if it happens to be physically-oriented. So, depending on what attacking type CAP30i, the list of Pokemon it can do better against either physically or specially is more concrete. I updated the summary thing above to reflect this.

 

[Wulfanator]

I think it is time to move on to checks and counters. However, I do want to comment on the pressures discussion before moving on.

Traditionally, threats sees less activity compared to other stages of the project. There are a multitude of reasons for it, but limited contributions makes it difficult to form a solid conclusion.

It also seemed like there was some minor confusion regarding what we were looking for with pressures. With pressures, we are more interested in identifying mons that threaten us but that we threaten back. Tapu Koko and Tapu Lele were good examples because CAP30 is threatened by SE STAB from these mons, but both Tapus struggle to switch in because they have to fear a potential Poison STAB. Likewise, Weavile’s Ice STAB threatens CAP30, but Weavile’s paper thin defenses deter it from switching in. Mons like Clefable and Jumbao do not threaten CAP30. That was why we decided they were good switch-in opportunities.

Lastly, pressures really do not inform or impact the decisions we make moving forward. Regardless of how we build either form, CAP30 fears a direct switch into a SE move. Likewise, the opponent will fear CAP30’s strong/SE moves.

With this project, I think placing less emphasis on pressures might be a better option.

30b:

Pressure:

30i:

Pressure:
Pressure w/ Tinted Lens: (if special 30i) (if physical 30i)



Checks & Counters:

30b: Given the defensive nature of our typing and ability, we risk creating a mon that struggles to find solid counterplay. We need to identify mons that are clearly going to counter us, or we risk recreating the problems we saw with Equilibra. I think this a very real concern given how 30b has been overshadowed with concerns for 30i.

• What mons should counter 30b?
• What mons can check 30b with their physical offense? Are there any that should still be able to check 30b after 1-2 stamina boosts?
• What mons should check 30b with their special offense?

30i: Tinted Lens throws a wrench in the mix when it comes to counterplay. Our list of counters will heavily rely on raw bulk and the ability to eat neutral hits. Otherwise, our counter play will heavily rely on offensive checks.

• What mons counter 30i? Which mons, if any, resist 30i’s STABs and are unfazed by Tinted Lens+orb? Which rely on raw bulk and the ability to eat a neutral hit?
• What mons should offensively check 30i?

 

[Ehmcee]

Active lurker in the cap forums, and wanted to try my hand at 30i. Sorry if overlook some things or don't know the commonly ran sets of mons in the cap meta.

• What mons should offensively check 30i?

While this ultimately depends on our speed, I believe , , , , scarf and under hail should all be able to naturally outspeed and ohko 30i with their respective super effective stabs. On the slower end, should be able to live at least one of 30i's stabs and ohko in return with specs ice beam. While not directly forcing 30i out, I believe , , and should be able to tank at least one of it's stabs and threaten it with a future sight or a doom desire. , and are also bulky offensive pokemon that should be able to tank two of 30i's stabs and deal heavy damage in return.

• What mons counter 30i? Which mons, if any, resist 30i’s STABs and are unfazed by Tinted Lens+orb? Which rely on raw bulk and the ability to eat a neutral hit?

This is very difficult without knowing an offensive leaning, so a few options below on the physically and specially defensive end:

Should counter Physical 30i:
should be able to avoid a 2hko from brave bird, so it is able to effectively pressure stall it with roost and find opportunities to pivot out on 30i.

(PhysDef) should be able to tank two brave birds, and threaten out 30i with chip from iron barbs, brave bird recoil and leech seed chip.

(PhysDef) Should be able to stomach two brave birds, and either be able to recover on 30i, or threaten it with a scald burn.

, as previously stated, should be able to dodge a 2hko and respond with a scald, future sight or teleport.

Should counter Special 30i:
(AV) being the spdef behemoth that it is, should be able to tank 3 hurricanes from full.

should be able to avoid a 3hko from hurricane and teleport out,

(SpDef) Should be able to avoid a 2hko and fish for hurricane misses

should also be able to avoid a hurricane 2hko, and threaten with future sight or simply teleport out.


A major concern I'm seeing here, is that most of the counterplay here is very weak to taunt (is this polljumping?), the list of true defensive counters becomes extremely barren without access to their status moves.

 

[Amamama]

• What mons should counter 30b?
• What mons can check 30b with their physical offense? Are there any that should still be able to check 30b after 1-2 stamina boosts?
• What mons should check 30b with their special offense?

I think 30b should struggle to beat some common defensive Pokémon, which should at least be able to stall out it’s common move sets. Additionally some more tanky pivots should be able to trade hits with it and wear it down or force it out with SE coverage, while some strong wallbreaker should be able to immediately force it out with SE moves.

Imo the best option for counters are the Slow Siblingsif Special or if physical, as they have naturally great bulk and resist or are neutral to our STABs while threatening CAP30 with SE moves.
CAP 30b should not be able to break past (one of) the kanto brothers easily but should be ok to cripple them with utility like poison and should only beat (one of) the Galar brothers with utility or extra help from its team.
At the same time their moves like Psychic and Futuresight should hit 30b hard enough so it can’t stay in.

Aegislash should also have a solid Match Up against 30b as long as it’s a Special attacking Set.

Melmetal is imo the only physical attacker that atm has the upper hand bc it easily tanks 30bs stabs. If it doesn’t trigger stamina too soon it should be able to break through 30b.

Zapdos should as well be able Trade hits and eventually force it out, at least if it’s running Discharge over Volt Switch and obviously if it’s the rare offensive Zapdos, although I’m not opposed to 30b winning this Matchup against defensive variants with a bit of previous chip.

Mons, that should be able to check 30b defensively and stall it out are imo Corviknight and Pex Breaking past these two with our current toolset would need some immense power, which I don’t really like, given that 30b is going to be hard to be overwhelmed by a lot of Pokémon.

These mons should also be able to trade hits and win the tank war or immediately threaten 30b out if the get a free switch in or time to set up.
There are only a few physical mons that will be able to do this and always with a big if and I doubt we can design 30b so physical threats can beat it once it alread
Band Weavile(if stamina has’t been triggered yet or 30b is chipped although Triple Axel reduces the bar for this a lot: 80/80+ invested 30b is already able to 1v1 banded weavile), Scizor(with swords dance should be able to set up on 30b and beat it eventually, if it doesn’t trigger stamina too early), Zeraora (if stamina has’t been triggered or 30b is chipped), Arctozolt, Choice Band Syclant

On the Special side we should pick from this pool: (imo it should be fairly wide, since stamina can remove physical counterplay with one good switch in) Kyurem,Torn T (with Nasty Plot and knock off, Taunt should be able to go into a clutch 1v1 although Idt it outright needs to always beat 30b), Koko (I’m ok if Koko loses this if 30b is at full health and carries poison coverage, but Koko should do big damage),Tapu Lele, Magnezone (could be a toss up here depending on moves but currently zone should be able to easily take on 30b)

• What mons counter 30i? Which mons, if any, resist 30i’s STABs and are unfazed by Tinted Lens+orb? Which rely on raw bulk and the ability to eat a neutral hit?
• What mons should offensively check 30i?

I think the only true counters are going to be one of Slowkings or Slowbros and Toxapex and maybe Gastrodon, depending on offensive bias, as they are very bulky, have recovery and threaten 30i with SE moves or Scald. Outside of these few mons Magnezone is the only relevant mon that resists 30is moves and can hit it back SE.
it’s inability to recover, it’s low speed and it’s usually offensive build still are going to make it an unreliable answer, especially since Magnezone likes to do different things in a match, than checking a strong wallbreaker.

Stakataka is a fringe option that could prove solid into physical 30i.

I don’t think Ferrothorn can be seen as reliable counter if it only relies on chip to wear down 30i and 30i gets access to recovery as it can offset chip damage through roost, while Ferrothorn can’t heal as fast with only leech seed and leftovers and also usually does not carry moves that remotely threaten 30i.

In addition to these mons only Corvi, And Hippowdon, which at least can phaze 30i out, Skarm (for physical) and Blissey (for special)have the raw Bulk to check 30is STABs unless we give it absurd offenses, although other bulky Pokémon can be added depending on 30is stats and bias.

Offensively it depends a lot on speed, but I think it’s safe to say that Zeraora and Arctozolt should be threatening out 30i through their Speed and SE STAB moves. similarly Tapu Koko, Weavile and Syclant can be answers to 30i, although I am still open to make 30i a speed demon so I don’t mind if they lose to it.
Regardless of this Weavile and Syclant should be able to revenge Kill 30i with ice shard and a bit of chip.
On the slower end Kyurem, Krilowatt and Tyranitar Should be able to beat 30i 1v1, while Tapu Lele depends on 30is speed Tier as well.

Edit: Glowbro and Staka are only mentioned since they might have the right build to take on CAP 30. I do realize that, they are fringe viable at best and are unlikely to surpass any of the more viable options as answers to 30i or 30b.
i also want to add that Necrozma can likely deal with both forms.
And additionally CAP30b might become a good 30i Check defensively if 30i is physical.

 

[Astra]

It also seemed like there was some minor confusion regarding what we were looking for with pressures.

Yeah, I misunderstood the last discussion stage and made a response that, funnily enough, probably fits this current discussion stage better, so apologies for that. On the bright side, though, I get an excuse to build off of what I've said in that post. Neat! Again, I'll be mainly focusing on CAP30i just because I'm usually pressed for time with school and the like.

Anyways, I wanted to start this post with notable calculations with some of the Pokemon Amamama listed above as potential checks and counters to CAP30i. As you'll see, their effectiveness depends on whether or not CAP30i is physical or special (assuming 100/100 offensive stats, as well an HP stat of 85 when relevant):

Calcs

Physical vs.
252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 105-124 (34.5 - 40.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 115-136 (37.8 - 44.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Special vs.
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Toxapex: 133-157 (43.7 - 51.6%) -- 9% chance to 2HKO
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Toxapex: 145-172 (47.6 - 56.5%) -- 87.5% chance to 2HKO
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Toxapex: 145-172 (47.6 - 56.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

Physical vs.
252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Gastrodon: 268-316 (62.9 - 74.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Gastrodon: 294-346 (69 - 81.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Special vs.
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Gastrodon: 147-174 (34.5 - 40.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Gastrodon: 160-190 (37.5 - 44.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Seen here, Toxapex would have an easier job against CAP30i if it was a physical attacker, while Gastrodon would handle CAP30i better if it was a special attacker. Toxapex also has the added benefit of potentially crippling a physical attacking CAP30i with Scald, though if it choose to run Knock Off over it, it can't do much of anything besides eat hits and recover the lost health.

Calcs

Physical vs.
252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Ferrothorn: 154-183 (43.7 - 51.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Ferrothorn: 154-183 (43.7 - 51.9%) -- 99.1% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery and Leech Seed recovery
252+ Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Ferrothorn: 169-201 (48 - 57.1%) -- 37.9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Ferrothorn: 169-201 (48 - 57.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery and Leech Seed recovery

Special vs.
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ferrothorn: 118-139 (33.5 - 39.4%) -- 17.4% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ferrothorn: 118-139 (33.5 - 39.4%) -- 8.1% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery and Leech Seed recovery
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ferrothorn: 127-151 (36 - 42.8%) -- 94.9% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ferrothorn: 127-151 (36 - 42.8%) -- 94.6% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery and Leech Seed recovery

Like what Amamama said in his post, Ferrothorn doesn't seem like it would be able to counter CAP30i, no matter whether it's physical or special. It does actually take hits from special attacking CAP30i decently, but unless Ferrothorn is running Gyro Ball or something, it's only form of real damage would be from Leech Seed, which would be easy for CAP30i to get back if it gets recovery.

Here are the calculations for Slowbro, Slowking, and Galarian Slowking:

Calcs

Physical vs.
252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 133-157 (33.7 - 39.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 145-172 (36.8 - 43.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Special vs.
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Slowbro: 216-255 (54.8 - 64.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Slowbro: 237-279 (60.1 - 70.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Physical vs.
252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Slowking: 235-277 (59.6 - 70.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Slowking: 258-304 (65.4 - 77.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Special vs.
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Slowking: 121-144 (30.7 - 36.5%) -- 62.7% chance to 3HKO
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Slowking: 133-157 (33.7 - 39.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Physical vs.
252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Slowking-Galar: 237-279 (60.1 - 70.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Slowking-Galar: 259-306 (65.7 - 77.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Special vs.
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 176+ SpD Assault Vest Slowking-Galar: 85-102 (21.5 - 25.8%) -- 1.7% chance to 4HKO
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 176+ SpD Assault Vest Slowking-Galar: 94-112 (23.8 - 28.4%) -- 96.7% chance to 4HKO
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 176+ SpD Assault Vest Slowking-Galar: 94-112 (23.8 - 28.4%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Stealth Rock

To everyone's surprise, Slowbro will be better at handling CAP30i as a physical attacker, while Slowking and Galarian Slowking will be better at handling it as a special attacker. I know this is kind of a "yeah no shit" thing, but I just wanted to illustrate these Pokemon will be only good at checking or countering either one of physical attacking or special attacking CAP30i.

Since Magnezone was mentioned too, I decided to check some calculations as well:

Calcs

Physical vs.
252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Magnezone: 86-102 (30.6 - 36.2%) -- 53.2% chance to 3HKO
252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Magnezone: 86-102 (30.6 - 36.2%) -- 98.8% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Magnezone: 94-112 (33.4 - 39.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Special vs.
252 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Hurricane vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Magnezone: 98-116 (34.8 - 41.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Hurricane vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Magnezone: 108-126 (38.4 - 44.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Again, like what Amamama said, Magnezone really shouldn't be the one switching into attacks, but if it needs to switch into CAP30i, the damage difference between it being physical and special is somewhat small, with special having a decent edge. In general, though, Magnezone can perhaps be a decent enough check for CAP30i.

For Pokemon I've listed before in this thread (and because I'm too lazy to do calculations again), Corviknight, Skarmory, Melmetal, and Landorus-T should be able to check CAP30i well if it's a physical attacker, but they lose that edge if CAP30i is a special attacker. Landorus-T in particular can't really do much against CAP30i unless it's running Stone Edge, though Intimidate and how it excels as a defensive pivot should be enough to check CAP30i. Blissey obviously will be good against CAP30i if it's a special attacker but can't really handle it if it's a physical attacker.

There obviously are more offensive checks to CAP30i in general, such as Weavile and Zeraora, but I wanted to focus on defensive checks and counters for this post.

So, to sum it all up:
Potential Checks / Counters for Physical Attacking CAP30i:
Potential Checks / Counters for Special Attacking CAP30i:
Potential Checks / Counters for CAP30i in General:

This is based on the Pokemon's most optimal sets in the current metagame, by the way. These could obviously change based on what they choose to run; for example, Ferrothorn could easily be a much better check to CAP30i if it's a physical attacker if it invests more defensively than special defensively, which also applies for Toxapex.

Oh, and just for fun...

Physical vs.
252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Stakataka: 50-60 (15.3 - 18.4%) -- possible 8HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Stakataka: 54-66 (16.5 - 20.2%) -- possible 7HKO after Leftovers recovery

Special vs.
252 SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Stakataka: 64-76 (19.6 - 23.3%) -- possible 6HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Stakataka: 70-82 (21.4 - 25.1%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery

Quite the sturdy pile of bricks we got here.

Edit: Amamama reminded me that Landorus-T is currently running a specially defensive spread more often at the moment, so I checked the calculations with that spread:

Physical vs.
-1 252 Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Landorus-Therian: 144-169 (37.6 - 44.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
-1 252+ Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Landorus-Therian: 157-186 (41 - 48.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
-1 252+ Atk Sharp Beak Crobat Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Landorus-Therian: 157-186 (41 - 48.6%) -- 12.5% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery

Special vs.
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 208+ SpD Landorus-Therian: 156-184 (40.8 - 48.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 208+ SpD Landorus-Therian: 156-184 (40.8 - 48.1%) -- 8.2% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 208+ SpD Landorus-Therian: 171-202 (44.7 - 52.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ SpA Sharp Beak Crobat Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 208+ SpD Landorus-Therian: 171-202 (44.7 - 52.8%) -- 85.9% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery

Interestingly, CAP30i seems to have an very slight edge against Landorus-T if it's a special attacker, despite Landorus-T being specially defensive.

 

[spoo]

I think it is time to move on to checks and counters. However, I do want to comment on the pressures discussion before moving on.

Traditionally, threats sees less activity compared to other stages of the project. There are a multitude of reasons for it, but limited contributions makes it difficult to form a solid conclusion.

It also seemed like there was some minor confusion regarding what we were looking for with pressures. With pressures, we are more interested in identifying mons that threaten us but that we threaten back. Tapu Koko and Tapu Lele were good examples because CAP30 is threatened by SE STAB from these mons, but both Tapus struggle to switch in because they have to fear a potential Poison STAB. Likewise, Weavile’s Ice STAB threatens CAP30, but Weavile’s paper thin defenses deter it from switching in. Mons like Clefable and Jumbao do not threaten CAP30. That was why we decided they were good switch-in opportunities.

Lastly, pressures really do not inform or impact the decisions we make moving forward. Regardless of how we build either form, CAP30 fears a direct switch into a SE move. Likewise, the opponent will fear CAP30’s strong/SE moves.

With this project, I think placing less emphasis on pressures might be a better option.

30b:

Pressure:

30i:

Pressure:
Pressure w/ Tinted Lens: (if special 30i) (if physical 30i)



Checks & Counters:

30b: Given the defensive nature of our typing and ability, we risk creating a mon that struggles to find solid counterplay. We need to identify mons that are clearly going to counter us, or we risk recreating the problems we saw with Equilibra. I think this a very real concern given how 30b has been overshadowed with concerns for 30i.

• What mons should counter 30b?
• What mons can check 30b with their physical offense? Are there any that should still be able to check 30b after 1-2 stamina boosts?
• What mons should check 30b with their special offense?

30i: Tinted Lens throws a wrench in the mix when it comes to counterplay. Our list of counters will heavily rely on raw bulk and the ability to eat neutral hits. Otherwise, our counter play will heavily rely on offensive checks.

• What mons counter 30i? Which mons, if any, resist 30i’s STABs and are unfazed by Tinted Lens+orb? Which rely on raw bulk and the ability to eat a neutral hit?
• What mons should offensively check 30i?

This is a small nitpick for the pressures list before I get into checks/counters, but I've always conceived of the pressure category as "mons that threaten us but we threaten back," and for that reason, I feel like it doesn't make a ton of sense to have skarm/corv on 30i's list. These are pokemon that are probably going to be switching directly into us and forcing us out because we can't break them, not because we are scared of anything they can actually do to us.
small edit for clarity; basically if we're physical we will prob be straight walled, and if we're special and can break these mons then there's not much they can threaten to prevent us from hardswitching into them

As for checks/counters, skarm and corv are definitely a good place to start for physical 30i. Corv less so, because I imagine we will get some very high Attack spreads submitted and with rocks up it's incredibly easy to force a 2HKO (with 130 attack - not the highest stat I've seen thrown around, but likely close to our ceiling - BB is a 75% chance to 2HKO with rocks). Even without rocks, Corv is not that hard to overwhelm in general if you can remove its leftovers, and feels like it will ultimately be a shaky check at best to many of the stronger spreads we will see. Skarmory is 100% a lock, though. For other bulky steels: A lot of these slower steel-types without recovery (melmetal, equilibra, heatran, ferrothorn, aegislash, even magnezone) are just things that will take 30-40% from our strongest move and then the next time they switch in they get 2HKOd - this is the whole point of Tinted Lens. I don't think many of these should end up on our C&C for this reason, as they simply won't be reliable in practice.

To comment on other stuff I've seen thrown around so far, I don't think Zapdos and Landorus-T belong on 30i's C&C for a few reasons. Zapdos does not have the bulk to switch into high-powered item-boosted STAB moves at all, but even more so if it's knocked (knock is unconfirmed, but a potentiality) or poisoned (any secondary STAB move we will be using has a 30% chance). The only threat I think Zapdos poses to us is the risk of Static paras from physical sets. This honestly sounds like more of a pressure matchup if anything. Landorus-T, on the other hand, just cannot touch us. It may be able to barely avoid a 3HKO depending on its EVs, but it can do nothing back - we even identified it as a switch-in opportunity for us earlier in this stage.

I feel that the best answers to 30i will be fat Regenerator Pokemon, and even some of these Pokemon may be easily overwhelmed by higher Atk/SpA spreads. Slowbro and physdef Pex should probably be able to avoid a 2HKO from physical spreads, while Slowking, Galarking, and spdf Pex should be able to take on special sets. Toxapex is a very versatile Pokemon and its defensive EV bias has changed multiple times throughout this gen, so I see no issue listing it for both physical/special C&C (though its main set right now is heavily specially defensive). Blissey, while obviously not a regen mon, should be able to handily take on special sets similar to how Skarm should be able to tank physical moves from us. Tl;dr, pair this mon with miasmaw lol. May make a post later for 30b, but those are my thoughts on the item forme.

 

[Wulfanator]

Quick post. Consider this your 24 hour warning until thread closes. I'm liking what I'm seeing. I hope there are a few more posts before tomorrow.

Commenting on spoo's post, I agree with the arguement against corviknight and skarmory. I threw them on last minute to just get the post out. I will be dropping both from the list.

 

[ultramafia]

Just thought I'd chip in as I've been too busy to post in this thread till now. I won't give full lists of checks/counters for both forms becuase
a) I'm not that experienced
b) most of the relevant mons have already been covered.
Instead I'll just mention a few interactions that I think are worth highlighting:

30b
Physical checks to 30b have it rough, as Stamina makes it really hard to break. This is especially the case if 30b has recovery (apologies if discussing this is poll-jumping). In this case attacks need to do >90% (assuming 30b is at full health) or else 30b can spam recovery until stamina gets it out of 2HKO range. This is because after taking 1 attack and recovering 50% hp, the subsequent attack (at 2/3 damage) must KO 30b or else the second boost will put damage dealt below 50%, at which point 30b now counter the supposed check.
As an example, 30b can likely beat pivot Zeraora in a 1v1 situation:

with 80/80 physical bulk:​

252 Atk Zeraora Plasma Fists vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Crobat: 246-290 (67.5 - 79.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO ​

Assuming a max damage roll, this puts 30b at 70.4% HP after recovery. With +1 Defense, the next attack is unable to KO 30b:​

252+ Atk Zeraora Plasma Fists vs. +1 252 HP / 252+ Def Crobat: 182-216 (50 - 59.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO​

After recovery (again assuming max damage), 30b is now at 61.1% HP and +2 defense. Zeraora is now dealing less damage than 30b recovers​

252+ Atk Zeraora Plasma Fists vs. +2 252 HP / 252+ Def Crobat: 134-162 (36.8 - 44.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO​

Things could be similar for Weavile and Syclant depending on how much bulk we give 30b.

I think that Urshifu-R is worth considering as another physical check, thanks to Surging Strikes ignoring Stamina boosts. It will fear flying STAB in return however.

30i
If 30i ends up going physical then Iron Defense Magnezone (which made up 68% of OU magnezone sets in September) is a pretty strong check (maybe even a counter?).

Using 100 atk​

252 Atk Sharp Beak Tinted Lens Crobat Brave Bird vs. 4 HP / 252 Def Magnezone: 70-82 (24.8 - 29%) -- guaranteed 5HKO after Leftovers recovery​

Cyclohm is another mon that should should counter a physical 30i, as it has excellent physical bulk and can do strong damage in return with Electric STAB.

 

[Amamama]

I think the previous post shows how strong stamina plus recovery can be at denying physical counterplay and I like to agree, that physical breaker, that threaten 30b SE, like Zeraora, Weavile and Syclant, are going to have trouble outright breaking 30b if it’s at full health.
I do think though, that, given their speed and power, they can still be viable offensive checks in game, as 30b will struggle to remain at full health and they should be able to outspeed and OHKO 30b with a bit of chip.

 

[Wulfanator]

Alright, let’s get this wrapped up. Thank you to everyone that contributed to this threats discussion. Without further ado, here are your complete lists of switch-ins, pressures, and checks & counters for both forms.

30b

Switch-ins:
(safe)
(situational) defensive)
(shaky) :tornadus-therian
(stretch/optional):

Pressure:


Checks:
(in hail) :

Counters:
Steel-types
(if physical 30i)
(if special 30i)

30i

Switch-ins:
(safe) (utility) (defensive)
(shaky)

Pressure:

(if physical 30i)
(if special 30i)

Checks:
(in hail) Steel-types w/o recovery

Counters:
(if physical 30i) (physdef)
(if special 30i) (spdef)

With threats out of the way, we will move on to defining moves with kjnjkmjk1.