Italicizing the highlight games, hope to catch as many of these live as I can
SV CAP: lax vs AtraX Madara (75-25)
Should be fairly clear cut. The navis SV slots went 0-3 in W1 but have been insanely dominant since then, while the venoms SVs have been struggling to keep up. I don't think this is just luck or coincidence; the navis are bringing mostly solid teams and piloting them efficiently, meanwhile the venoms SV builds this season often look questionable and their players kinda keep binning games. Lax is a better player, navis have better meta reads, no shade to madara but I don't really see how he wins this.
SV CAP: Darek vs Joeshh (48-52)
My personal closest game of the series. Darek didn't look too hot at the end of SS but I think he's really found his stride again in SV. He should be 5-0 without an unlucky Head Smash miss W1 and somehow just continues to farm wins with random sun teams. Joeshh on the other hand is 2-4, far from the projected #1 ranking in PRs, making some slip ups both ingame and imo in the builder these past few weeks. Prep for this game is gonna be interesting, but I have to imagine that navis have a leg up - obviously venoms should know to expect sun, but it's just as possible that they overprepare in this direction and lose to darek loading something totally different. Compare this to joeshh's tendencies being primarily towards balance/fat and I think he's a lot easier to exploit in the builder. Either way, both players will probably need to load something outside their comfort zone if they want to win. Giving a tiny edge to joeshh bc I rate him higher than darek on your average day, plus he just played a nice game vs kushalos in WCOP and seems to be in good form going into finals. Gonna be an exciting match.
SV CAP: avarice vs Trogba Trogba (65-35)
Probably a bit closer than I'm predicting, I think trogba's a fine player and all, but his two wins haven't particularly impressed me and avarice has looked more or less solid the whole tour. Also worth noting again that the navis grasp on this meta looks a lot stronger than what the venoms are working with.
SS CAP: The Number Man vs Fogbound Lake (45-55)
Fog looked poorer than usual last week but think this should still be his game to win. TNM hasn't been putting up the same numbers as two years ago and fog is currently 6-0. At the end of the day, like, it's still TNM in SS, and he has probably the best SS support he could ask for with dex, but I really can't bold against fog at this point. Would be 60-40 or higher if not for the weird game vs jon.
SS CAP: snaga vs clean (55-45)
Snaga has consistently surprised me in this tier, and despite clean being 5-1, my gut says snaga with dex support is better in a must-win game like this. I remember being impressed with his W1 game vs jon and his finals game vs fog last PL, though there might be some other solid wins that I’m forgetting. Still, it's not like clean isn't damn good himself - the guy is 5-1 with his only loss being to random argh lure acrobatics dragapult (god prep). Mainly giving the edge to snaga here bc I think dex's SS takes are better than what nick's been loading so far. Very close game.
SM CAP: Lily vs SHSP (45-55)
I love shsp, but this might be the prediction that I’m least confident about. His last two wins weren’t exactly the cleanest, and while it’s worth mentioning that one of his losses was totally undeserved too, I think he’s kinda having an uncharacteristic off-season in a tier where he usually looks more dominant. Lily is 3-2, ngl I don’t remember much about her games but she knows how to win in this tier and should have decent support with dex and co. Might rate these players about equal with each other given their performances this tour but I’m giving it to shsp bc I expect his supporting cast of wulf/pannu/lasen to really come in handy. Think shsp clutches this one up, but it ain’t gonna be easy - lily's beaten him once already this tour and is fully capable of doing it again.
ORAS CAP: Steam Buns vs Sylvi (60-40)
Sylvi has looked pretty hit or miss this tour, and lately it's been a lot more misses. He came out of the gate swinging with confident wins over jay and buns W1/W2 but has seemingly lost the momentum since then. I don’t agree with some of his loads, nor do I think he’s been playing super on point the past few weeks, but I know he’s a solid player and pannu/maybe others should be able to steer builds in the right direction. Steam buns is sorta the opposite story, where he got a lucky win W1 and losses W2/W3 but eventually secured a footing and seems to riding on some nice upward momentum. He's never easy - and at times, is really fucking hard - to beat in this tier, and taking into account how clutch his playoffs run was last PL, it's difficult for me to not favor him here.
BW CAP: Splash vs TGA (60-40)
I haven't been keeping up with BW this tour (or ever) so I can't really give any kind of proper analysis, but I do know that splash is generally hard to beat, has been playing a bunch of tours lately so is probably in decent form, and I assume is getting passed teams from the expert steam buns. TGA beat him earlier this tour but I'm not sure if he gets away with it again. He threw a very good matchup last week and won bc of an EV mistake from his opponent, but he's also 5-1, so clearly doing something right. Like I said, idk BW, just going with my gut.
There are lots of close games here so doing a tiebreak scenario just for fun. Venoms pick SS, navis pick ORAS, if darek wins vs joeshh / buns loses to sylvi this week then they pick SV instead.
SV CAP: lax vs Joeshh (60-40)
SS CAP: snaga vs Fogbound Lake (45-55)
ORAS CAP: Steam Buns vs Sylvi (60-40)
Navis lineup looks a little better to me overall, and I don’t think the venoms have any “easy” wins, either - even their 10-1 carry slots in SS are facing two very competent opponents - while the navis have at least one or two games that should really be locks for them. It’s not like this would be the first (or second) time that wulf squads have pulled off an underdog victory, though, so venoms winning here would hardly be surprising. Imo dex and some players like darek/buns/TNM really deserve a CAPPL trophy at this point, but I have a few more friends I'd be happy to see win on the venoms, so there's no bad outcome in my eyes. Rooting for both teams but predicting the navis to take it 5-3.
Noble Naviathans (3) vs Vengeful Venomicons (5) 
