Lower Tiers Confusion in Lower Tiers Discussion

Sabelette

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Hello gamers,

Confusion (and more particularly, Confuse Ray) has been a long-standing controversial topic in RBY, but nowhere is it more controversial than in lower tiers. While relatively uncommon as a strategy, Confuse Ray on Pokemon such as Haunter, Magmar, Ninetales, and Golbat has caused some situations that might charitably be called "funny" and uncharitably called "bullshit," and even Supersonic has seen occasional use to fish for luck. It is also harder to counterplay in lower tiers due to the lack of bulk and recovery as compared to OU and Ubers, which have more options to play around the status. That said, it also has uses down here, such as making Hypnosis go from 60% accuracy to 30%, which might be viewed as denying the opponent use of an inconsistent move, so it is hard to argue that confusion is exclusively a negative or has no strategy to it.

After some internal discussion among the various councils and within the playerbase, I wanted to survey people on their opinions and open a discussion thread to better understand how the playerbase at large views confusion. Please post your thoughts here, and also take the short survey below so we can gather some data to inform whether or not action should be taken. This survey is being conducted now because any potential action on confusion would result in relatively little change to lower tiers; this does not indicate anything about plans for future action.

Survey: https://forms.gle/tat5nBkmjxKCCfFE6
 
I do not think Confuse Ray is overpowered in any of the lowtiers (UU-ZU at least) but it is still a fundamentally uncompetitive move that turns things into coinflips. I think it should be banned in every lowtier from UU-ZU

Addressing the "If a tier has no good Confuse Ray users, why ban it?" argument:
It should still be banned so nobody tries to bring a shitmon to win games, and it also acts as a buffer for a potentially broken user of cray to enter the tier. For example, Confuse Ray is nonexistent in current ZU pretty much, but if Mamgar drops that could maybe be a very broken user of the move. Also, if a move is banned for being uncompetitive it doesn't matter if the users of the move are actually viable or not. For example Guillotine has no viable users in UU, and not a single person has ever asked to have it unbanned. I know that's a silly example but it's fundamentally a similar argument to the ones I've seen floating around to keep Confuse Ray.
 
I do not think Confuse Ray is overpowered in any of the lowtiers (UU-ZU at least) but it is still a fundamentally uncompetitive move that turns things into coinflips. I think it should be banned in every lowtier from UU-ZU

Addressing the "If a tier has no good Confuse Ray users, why ban it?" argument:
It should still be banned so nobody tries to bring a shitmon to win games, and it also acts as a buffer for a potentially broken user of cray to enter the tier. For example, Confuse Ray is nonexistent in current ZU pretty much, but if Mamgar drops that could maybe be a very broken user of the move. Also, if a move is banned for being uncompetitive it doesn't matter if the users of the move are actually viable or not. For example Guillotine has no viable users in UU, and not a single person has ever asked to have it unbanned. I know that's a silly example but it's fundamentally a similar argument to the ones I've seen floating around to keep Confuse Ray.

Golbat is an ok C tier Pokémon in ZU. The combination of Confuse Ray, Mega Drain, Double-Edge, and Hyper Beam, along with its base 90 Speed and decent bulk, makes it better than one might expect. However, it's still a bad mon that relies on cray luck to be viable, which gives it a niche that I don't believe is worth preserving.
Like others before me, I also don't think cray is an overpowered move it's just uncompetitive and adds unnecessary element of luck to the already volatile lower tiers of RBY.
 
Throwing in a little input, I do feel that confuse ray is fundamentally uncompetitive as it always has been
However! I'd like to point to PU magmar as I feel it's an example of how confuse ray can be positive. Magmar uses confuse ray for its matchup against Seaking and I believe this tricky, albeit not perfect strategy to deny seakings setting up is a pretty positive and interesting thing

However in the long run golbat is still strictly a low tier shitter using the move to cheese in ZU and I can't rlly remember seeing it in NU or UU so I feel a ban on the move in all 4 lower tiers simply to preserve competitiveness would be fine yea
 
I've come around to this thread. I originally didn't see much of a point, given confuse ray users as a whole skew towards lower viability between UU-ZU , and the exceptions(Haunter/Ninetales) have better moves to slot.

However, in consideration that there will be a good bit of movement between the tiers as new VRs are made(assumedly, with higher cutoffs and thus a lot of drops) this can save us a future headache where a pokemon becomes a top threat due to it dropping to a lower tier(or mons that keep it in check rising).

For example, Magmar is currently in PU, but I suspect it will drop to ZU when the new VRs are posted, where it would be an absolute headache to face with Confuse Ray. Normally this pokemon is very slightly too fragile and too slow to abuse confuse ray too much, but in ZU as is right now, it would outspeed all the common pokemon outside of Primeape and be a pain to switch into.

I cite Magmar to emphasize that a confusion user being a top threat is certainly possible, and potentially banning it here puts out that fire before it starts. Also if Confuse Ray is banned then Supersonic should be banned too, surprisingly it has better distribution that Confuse Ray
 
theres no reason to not nuke confuse ray + supersonic. they're pure cheese moves and only exist to let some mons cheese through mons that would otherwise check them consistently

also as seen in SU, having a top tier confuse ray user (golbat) is really obnoxious and makes the tier have way more variance, so I'm down to ban it even in tiers where its not relevant in case a strong confuse ray user ever falls to a lower tier

(also if it were up to me we'd ban accuracy lowering moves too but thats a debate for another day)
 
Super-Green/Casual when speaking in this regard, but here goes....

Personally I'd prefer not leaning too much into the "Confusion is Uncompetive" camp myself since it's inherently the weakest non-glitched Status by design and it's only advantage is that it creates a Phazing situation, though I do understand why it can be extremely problematic in tiers like ZU or 7U when the Best(on in at least one case, only) CRay User happens to also be the fastest 'Mon in said tier with decent stats for said tiers(Golbat), creating an inherent situation that forces the opponent to have to prepare workarounds every time they encounter that Pokemon, limiting Team variety/exploration in response(compared to say Electrode who is the fastest 'Mon in the game with the fastest TWave setup, but also has terrible stats everywhere else meaning all it can do is Paralyze stuff and then die I guess.)

As I recall there were similar discussions about the impact of Sleep on Lower Tiers, and even a brief bit where it was banned before eventually being reverted from further tests(which is probably for the best because Geez, Parasect has suffered enough.) And of course there is the constant discussion on the future of Trapping techniques in Gen 1(which seems to be leaning towards the mindset of being acceptable as long as it's not paired with Stat Boosting moves, much in a similar vein to how Baton Pass is being treated in some of the other 2D Era gens.) but with Confusion I don't feel it's quite at that level of scrutiny as those examples. We don't really have things as oppressive as the Gen 6 Swagger Crisis that did inherently make Confusion a mess because it was paired with priority, nor is it the "Uncompetitive" reasons of Evasion giving the user benefits with essentially no counterplay or OHKO moves by design being glorified RNG Wallbreaks with automatic benefits(though it's a lil' different in Gen 1 because of Speed connections, but neither here nor there for that...)

It's seeming to stem from the camp of "Additional Abilities that can Skip Turns" and weighing the nature of it's presence in a competitive landscape. And unlike the Top 2 most present Status Effects of Gen 1(Sleep and Paralysis) Confusion lacks the Hugh Risk/Reward those 2 bear in that in exchange of risking your turn getting skipped you gain a "Lock" from getting any other major status conditions for the remainder of the match outside of Confusion funny enough. But with Confusion I feel it has purpose, since Confusion is...really the only major Phazing tool in Gen 1. Roar/Whirlwind were given the unfortunate "Teleport Status" of only being usable in game and pointless in Multiplayer at the time and Leech Seed is extremely niche as a Phazing tool with a finite user pool. that brief distinction of being a Tool to potentially force out Walls/disrupt an Opponent's attempted Optimal setup and make them explore other combat routes to retaliate? that dosn't ring as too Randomized or uncompetitive...or at least not beyond the standard levels of randomization commonly seen in Pokemon's turn based system anyway.
 
As Fawful, I am also rather new to the tier and to Smogon in general (despite having experience in Showdown in other tiers), yet I believe I can bring valid points towards a ban.

I do not feel the move is particularly OP or centralizing, and as Sabelette mentioned, it's not like it adds nothing to the tier, such as effectively dropping the accuracy of a switch-in. The problem is that this lends itself to opportunistic teambuilding, leading to teams that, while losing most of the time, are inherently uncompetitive. As a comparison, before Sand Veil/Snow Cloak bans in Gens III and IV (regardless of whether those bans should've been complex or not), there would always be teams centered on sub fishing for misses, which goes against the whole spirit of Evasion Clause. Were those teams consistently good? Not at all. Were they uncompetitive and ban-worthy due to the chance of winning against a better player simply based on luck and reducing skill expression across the game? Absolutely yes.

I believe Confuse Ray falls into a similar category. It's just a niche move that forces the enemy to coinflip and therefore will fail to achieve anything at least half of the time, but it also succeeds the other half of the time, forcing switch-ins that would otherwise have no business in happening. It's sad to remove options from Pokemon that are already poor in the first place, but the truth is the meta would benefit significantly more from having them removed than what little it loses.
 
Survey data time! I can't really show this with nice neat graphs because I had to manually split the data based on tiers played to get meaningful data out of it. I also further separated into qualified voters (those who would meet reqs for a hypothetical suspect test if it was conducted right now or have historically high placings in tournaments) and unqualified voters (those who wouldn't) to provide a clearer picture. Thanks to all respondents for taking the time to answer - we had 24 total respondents!

First off, lets start with some of the overall questions, like transitive bans. This question was aimed at understanding what to do if Confuse Ray is banned from, say, NU - should it then affect PU and ZU as well? Here's the vote breakdown:

Yes
No
Maybe/Unsure
All voters
45.8%​
41.7%​
12.5%​
Qualified voters
58.8%​
35.3%​
5.9%​
All voters ("unsure" removed)
52.4%​
47.6%​
-​
Qual voters ("unsure" removed)
62.5%​
37.5%​
-​

My interpretation of these numbers is that overall people favor transitive bans but there's a degree of uncertainty, and that qualified voters are overall strongly in favor of transitive bans. I'm personally more inclined to agree with transitive bans - we do this for Pokemon already and it makes tiering a little silly if a move is only usable in a "weaker" tier but not a stronger one.

Overall support for a Confuse Ray ban was 62.5% among 24 total voters, but this doesn't tell the whole story because some people were only speaking to individual tiers; see down below. There was significant but non-majority support for removing Supersonic as well, and extremely low support for banning Confusion (the move, not the status) or Psybeam.

When asked about benefits of confusion, respondents mainly responded that it's good for denying Hypnosis (6 responses) or N/A (13 responses) with remaining responses being statements like "it's funny" or "yes" or "it can give someone who is losing a chance to come back." There were a couple of other interesting responses:

"confuse ray provides interesting opportunities for (eg.) UU haunter to not be exploited by his would-be checks as consistently. given that those checks rely on high critrate to do their work (dugtrio) i don't think making those pokemon click attacks less often results in uncompetitive outcomes. or not particularly less competitive than the standard"

"It is a decent way to harass sleepers given the overlapping odds of the sleep move missing + confusion self hit. It is also possible to use along with paralysis to break through bulkier pokemon, although given the limits of paralysis spreading within most lower tiers this is more limited than attempting to deny sleepers."


As for individual tiers:

UU
UU had a total of 17 respondents, of which 12 were qualified. Among both groups, perception of confusion as broken was extremely low, as expected - 5.9% of all voters and 8.3% of qualified voters believe confusion is broken in UU. However, thoughts on its competitiveness were much more mixed - 52.9% of all voters and 58.3% of qualified voters regard confusion as uncompetitive in UU. Despite this, many voters did not support a ban; 35.3% of all voters and 41.7% of qualified voters said they would support banning Confuse Ray or confusion as a whole.

NU
NU also had a total of 17 respondents, but this time 11 were qualified. As with UU, confusion is not perceived as broken - 0% of voters regarded confusion as a broken element. Voters believe it to be uncompetitive, however, with 58.8% of all voters and 81.8% of qualified voters stating such. Unlike UU, there is support for a ban here; 52.9% of all voters and 72.7% of qualified voters support a ban. Notably, there is a very large disparity between unqualified voters - who nearly all voted "no" to all 3 questions - and qualified respondents, who overwhelmingly see confusion as uncompetitive and would support a ban.

PU
PU had 15 respondents, and 9 were qualified. Continuing the trend, very few voters see confusion as broken - 6.7% overall, 11.1% qualified. Similar to NU but with less disparity between groups, 66.6% regard it as uncompetitive and 77.7% of qualified voters see it as uncompetitive. 60% of all voters and 77.7% of qualified voters support banning Confuse Ray or confusion from PU.

ZU
ZU had 16 respondents, and an even split - 8 qualified, 8 not. Again, confusion is not regarded as broken, with 6.25% overall support and 0% among qualified voters. It is yet again viewed as uncompetitive, with 68.8% of all respondents and 75% of qualified respondents saying so. Ban support is a bit more mixed; 50% of all respondents and 62.5% of qualified respondents would support a ban.

TLDR
So here's my impression of the above - among the qualified players who consistently demonstrate knowledge in these tiers, there is supermajority support for removing confusion (or at least Confuse Ray) from NU, PU, and ZU. In UU, it's more controversial, with just under a supermajority regarding it as uncompetitive and far fewer willing to support a ban. Unqualified voters mostly voted against every question, with several of them marking that they play all tiers and that confusion is not broken, uncompetitive, nor should be banned in any of these tiers, creating an interesting disparity.

I'd like to open some space for discussion in light of these disparities between tiers and skill levels and see what people think. My personal opinion is that we should have a transitive suspect on Confuse Ray in NU and if it's banned, ban it from tiers below (and if not, allow PU then ZU their own suspects) - I think it would be silly to have Confuse Ray banned from 1 or 2 random tiers and not the tiers below it and all groups of voters had plurality or majority support for transitive bans, with qualified voters even reaching a supermajority. I think at this time there is not support for acting in UU and confusion should be left alone there unless sentiments change.

Tagging UU/NU/PU/ZU councils but inviting anyone to post their thoughts: Shellnuts Volk Unowndragon Torchic nicole7735 Serpi MrSoup Gangsta Spongebob gastlies Teh Wanted in 49 States BeatsBlack torkonpeter NotVeryCake
 
I believe Confuse Ray to be competitive in every single RBY tier for a couple reason.
:rb/tentacruel:UU:rb/tentacruel:
Although the move is never used, in theory Haunter can use it as recourse against an obvious Kadabra or Dugtrio switchin (although exploding or Subbing is usually just a better option if you think one of those two are coming in)
:rb/mr mime:NU:rb/Mr Mime:
Much like UU, the move ever actually gets used, although Gastly can potentially use it against a Mr. Mime switching in (although again, much like UU Haunter, Gastly has Explosion and potentially Substitute which are usually just better to click there)
:rb/arcanine:PU:rb/arcanine:
PU has undeniably the best Confuse Ray user in Magmar, which I consider to be a positive influence on the tier. It's the only Fire-type that can somewhat pressure Seaking and prevent it from just setting up and sweeping, as Confuse Ray combined with Psychic Special drops makes the matchup really uncomfortable for Seaking. Magmar also pressures Gastly especially hard, with Confuse Ray cutting the accuracy of its Hypnosis to a mere 30%.
:rb/pidgeot:ZU:rb/pidgeot:
Golbat makes a small niche in ZU with Confuse Ray, as it can switch into Sandslash, it can also use it anything slower reallyz its only issue is its very weak and can't offensively pressure anything aside from frails foes such as Flareon and Tentacool.
 
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