Headlines Could the China-Taiwan situation end up like the Russia-Ukraine situation

Will China Invade Taiwan


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For the last year Conflicts between China And Taiwan have been getting worse and worse and it is starting to look more and more like the Russia Ukraine situation.
BBC news recently said
"Pressure between China and Taiwan has been building, with the past year seeing a record number of Chinese warplane incursions sent into Taiwan's air defence zone.

At the heart of this is the issue of reunification.

China's President XI Jinping has said "reunification" with Taiwan "must be fullfield" - and has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve this.

China sees self-ruled Taiwan as a break away province that will eventually be part of the country again.

However, Taiwan sees itself as an independent country, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders."

Also here is a good video to watch if you don't know what is going on with China and Taiwan.
Video on China and Taiwan

I was surprised when I found out that there were a lot of people who did not know about what was going on with China and Taiwan, so I maid this thread to inform people about what was going on, and see what people's opinions are on this whole situation.

EDIT #1
So I see everyone's opinions are different but kinda the same as well.
 
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fx

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just want to caution anyone engaging in this topic to be well aware of the pro-imperialist and anti-PRC bias that is prevalent in much of the coverage surrounding the Taiwan strait. nevertheless, I don't believe it is likely the PRC will launch an invasion of Taiwan given the threat of US military intervention, an especially looming threat with US military presence in Taiwan. additionally, the PRC is well aware of the sanctions imposed upon Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, and i don't think they are interested in enduring same at this point
 
Invasive actions by the PRC would be disastrous for it. Right now the PRC's economy is floundering because of global supply chain disruptions, and much of the world has turned against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Those supply chain disruptions would dramatically escalate with an invasion and crash the PRC's most important sectors. The same would happen to the PRC if it invaded the RoC. The PRC has territorial disputes with dozens of nations, and invasion would likely consolidate solidarity among disputing countries against the PRC. IMO the more likely route is subjugation through expanded hybrid operations targeting and co-opting Blues in ROC, rather than amphibious kinetic operations. A kinetic war would literally be an existential threat to the existence of the Communist Party.

Amphibious assaults require extensive resources, and the PRC is not in a good position to wage war. That said, neither was the Russian Federation and that didn't stop it from trying to invade Ukraine.
 
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Hipmonlee

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Quick little rule of thumb if you are ever wondering whether a war is imperialism.

If you arent local, and the people you are killing are, then it's probably imperialism.

So like, Americans killing Afghans in Afghanistan: imperialism, Russians killing Ukrainians in Ukraine: imperialism, Mainland Chinese Killing Taiwanese in Taiwan: imperialism.

Anyway, the silver lining to the Ukrainian bs is that it has gone really, really poorly. So hopefully that deters a few imperialist invasions, but I dont fucking know any more. There seems to be no limit to the stupidity of the people in power anywhere.
 

Bella

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Its not a "if china invades taiwan" its a "when china invades taiwan" now. Its kinda likely that the PRC will use the war in ukraine as a way to deter US forces to focus on war in Ukraine. The Japanese and Koreans wouldnt be able to defend the island alone with the taiwanese and it would take like a week for the US to get its shit together for war. I consider it unlikey for china to gain taiwan in its whole, but butal fighting would definitly take place. Consider the fact that taiwan only has about 12,000,000 men fit for service, while china has nearly 700,000,000 men fit for service. its going to be a big, long, butal war of attrition, which Taiwan, Nato, Korea and Japan, etc would have to defend vs the largest army in the world with massive might.
 
Sorry, tankies, this will likely not happen. I ask for preemptive forgiveness for my U.S. based examples as that is what I know along with its military power.

The economic costs of an invasion would be severe albeit less impactful for the Chinese economy. I say this as while Russia's biggest export by far is oil, China produces and exports machinery and other stuff which would dissuade austere sanctions as there are less alternative sources for those goods. Disconnecting China from SWIFT is not going to happen due to the amount of capital present/invested in the country from foreign firms. For example, U.S. entities have directly invested approximately $123,880,000,000 with likely much more (idk not an economist). This number gets much larger when you factor in capital from other countries. China also invests in western countries along with others (especially African nations). I am making a big deal out of SWIFT due to how important it is for financial institutions to operate with estimates suggesting disconnection would shrink Russia's economy by 5%. Other sanctions would still hurt the Chinese economy, but SWIFT is really the only thin

the largest army in the world with massive might.
This is wildly inaccurate considering the superior training, technology, and spending as a part of the U.S. Military's overmatch doctrine. Here is an analysis comparing the two nations. However, it is still worth discussing China's perception of its national security. As fx said, the United States has a growing military presence in Taiwan to this dismay of the CCP. Russia has claimed that its invasion of Ukraine was essential for its national security citing the expansion of NATO closer to its borders. This claim is not without merit, but it would be wise to convince NATO not to expand by demonstrating it is unnecessary to do so (by not invading other countries, but I digress).

Directly attacking Taiwan would likely result in the death of U.S. troops which would make the neocons cream their pants thinking about a war. The probability of attacking NATO forces in Russia's invasion of Ukraine was negligible. China is also developing a new standard issue rifle which looks to be designed for urban warfare compared to the U.S. Military's NGSW which is mostly for longer ranges (due to possible deployment in places like Iraq). I don't think it means China is planning an offensive invasion, but having the capability if the U.S. were to attack. U.S./international recognition of Taiwan would be a cultural blow to the CCP and avoiding the issue has kept the region somewhat stable imo. This is why we get funny videos of politicians dancing around the issue/social credit score memes.

This post is too long by my standards therefore I won't talk about a post-war insurgency or anything else. These are just my two-cents and if anyone wants to critique my opinion/shitty analysis, please do so!

EDIT: Endorsing Hipmonlee's guide to recognizing imperialism
 
Its not a "if china invades taiwan" its a "when china invades taiwan" now. Its kinda likely that the PRC will use the war in ukraine as a way to deter US forces to focus on war in Ukraine. The Japanese and Koreans wouldnt be able to defend the island alone with the taiwanese and it would take like a week for the US to get its shit together for war. I consider it unlikey for china to gain taiwan in its whole, but butal fighting would definitly take place. Consider the fact that taiwan only has about 12,000,000 men fit for service, while china has nearly 700,000,000 men fit for service. its going to be a big, long, butal war of attrition, which Taiwan, Nato, Korea and Japan, etc would have to defend vs the largest army in the world with massive might.
That isn't how war works. This isn't a game of Starcraft. How many soldiers a nation can deploy has more to do with logistics and transportation especially when the battle location can't be reached by land. How is China going to get "700 million men" into Taiwan, are they going to swim? China has only so many transport ships (which eventually have to transport supplies instead of soldiers) and paratroopers have to be specially trained meaning you can't just give a conscript a parachute and hope for the best. China would also have to deal with the fact that amphibious landings are ludicrously difficult. Even D-day took a monumental effort where virtually the entire world united against a nearly defeated Germany and even so could have easily failed if so much as the weather was a little worse on that particular day. China would be facing an even larger and better defended force with multiple allies that would send Taiwan aid. Not to mention the months of buildup prior to invasion would be identified giving The US / pacific allies plenty of time to get in position. Taiwan also only has a handful of viable beach landing locations making them easily defended kill zones. Global satellite networks make surprise attacks very difficult and planning the largest naval invasion the world has ever seen would be obvious, to say the least. China's material and human life losses invading Taiwan would be monumental.

And that's before you get into who would be allied with Taiwan. The west has kept it vague in the interest of better China - US relations but it's pretty clear the US would intervene on Taiwan's behalf. Japan also seems quite eager to assist and of course you have global sanctions, military aid, and trade disruption to dissuade China further. The US has multiple air bases scattered around the Pacific and the world's largest air force / navy most of which is positioned to give China a hard time if it ever goes on the offensive.

Most analysis I've seen argue that China could take Taiwan barely if no nation intervenes (though their capability to do so grows every year). Then again they said the same thing about Russia invading Ukraine so who knows if China will handle logistics / morale better than Russia. US intervention would make sustainable landings in Taiwan impossible and the global sanctions would be punishing.

Can China do it? Realistically no. Not with our current political climate. Do they want to? Again, no. They're well aware it wouldn't be worth it. They do pursue China - Taiwan reunification but I think it's clear to anyone except shitty clickbait news articles that it isn't going to happen any time soon.
 
There's cultural differences and lifestyle differences between Russia and China that are often ignored in discussions of this sort. China is an authoritarian dictatorship, but its urban population is fairly safe, quality of life in China is trending upwards, and trust in authority is at an all time high. Most young Chinese people have no military experience and care little for war. I don't see the CCP sabotaging the goodwill and prosperity it has in much of urban mainland China by starting an insane quagmire war with Taiwan that nobody in China really wants except for batshit civil war larpers who still think the KMT is relevant.

Meanwhile Russia is a country where youth feel more and more alienated and unsafe by the day, the media and culture has long prepared its people for military actions, and the Russian government is in practice a lot smaller and more corrupt than China's. In spite of all this, the war with Ukraine isn't particularly popular within Russia, and it's safe to say the war probably hasn't yet succeeded in any of the metrics Russia was hoping.

China, already being in a very different situation, is not gonna look at this war and think "Hmmm yes this is my time."
In the anglophone world Russia and China tend to be equated as being very similar countries from a political point of view, but they're vastly different places with vastly different cultures and political interests.

If you live in a country like Australia or Japan where fearmongering about China is a big part of state media, I think it's easy to get the wrong idea. However China isn't gonna declare a foreign offensive war anytime soon.
 
Interestingly enough, i think that Taiwan can breathe a bit of fresh air as i really, really doubt China would to try to invade in the next 1-2 decades at least.

China's biggest military ally in Russia, who was the supposed giant that would put it as an equal with the "western world" in termsof military, has put up the most gigantic clownshow of a military operation in modern history. The invasion of Ukraine has been one of the most impressive military and economic suicides of all time, as the supposedly powerful russian army is taking an L to an army way weaker than it (yes, foreign help doesn't count, Russia could have easily steamrolled Ukraine if they hadn't half-assed it). It was already embarassing if it failed to conquer Ukraine in less than a week, but the fact that it has been AN ENTIRE MONTH and the Ukranian army has not only slowed the invasion but HAS AN EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCE OF FORCING A STALEMATE has reveal the mighty Russian army to be horribly corrupt and completely useless for an war of mass scale, which a Taiwan invasion could certainly reach. It doesn't help that Russia's leadership has continiously killed its economy as its response to sanctions could be resumed as "Fuck you, you don't sanction Russia, only Russia sanctions Russia". As such, Russia will essentially have to suck China to keep afloat with all the sanctions given to it, essentially making it the italy to China's Nazi Germany in military terms.

Don't get me wrong, it is still a question of when will China invade Taiwan, and regardless if it does it or not the China Taiwan Situation can't be solved with the same sanctions as Russia unless they want to risk MAD, but the world should breathe safe as it would take China a long time before it gains a strong enough ally to try and compare dick size with the west.
 

McGrrr

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It's inevitable that China will attempt to take control of Taiwan someday (preferably without force), but inevitable doesn't mean imminent.

There are similarities between Russia and China in their top-down command structures, Beijing having modelled its army on that of Moscow, and decades of systemic CCP corruption presents the potential for a comparable military embarrassment to what we're witnessing now. However, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be nothing like that of Ukraine, largely because the logistics would be much more favourable for the aggressor.

The West and its allies may have tried to set a precedent with their reaction to Ukraine, but I doubt the same response would be credible/possible if/when China decides to make its move, especially with existing global supply chains. Simply put, you can't compare sanctioning the 2nd largest economy in the world with a Russian economy that would rank 4th among US states (based on GDP).

In any case, I think Ukraine has put Chinese plans for Taiwan on hold. Regardless of how the invasion ends, the CCP will be concerned about its borders as Russians flee Putin and/or ongoing sanctions and/or regime change. Meanwhile, the real estate driven Chinese economy is breaking/broken and the CCP is struggling to keep to its zero-Covid policy. There's also the small distraction of the CCP Congress in November, which will determine if Xi essentially becomes autocrat for life (there's currently a power struggle behind the scenes between Xi and legacy factions).
 
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Taiwan has immense economic reasons (TSMC) that would result in the USA defending it with everything it has, something Ukraine noticeably lacks.
I genuinely do not think that the US would "defend" Taiwan in any different way than it has "defended" Ukraine, it would be passing on intelligence to the Taiwanese military to enhance their capabilities and supply arms. The PRC would also be subject to a naval blockade that would cripple its export-driven economy and isolate it from most of the world, forcing it to rely on trade that would pass through the former Soviet Republics in central Asia, where there's basically no infrastructure and vast desert. Even if it did take the island, it would have to wage counter-insurgency (COIN) operations against a modernised urban insurgency with access to drones and 3D printers. It's just not feasible for the PRC to wage kinetic war, especially when hybrid operations have already been somewhat successful in building support among the Blues.
 
I genuinely do not think that the US would "defend" Taiwan in any different way than it has "defended" Ukraine, it would be passing on intelligence to the Taiwanese military to enhance their capabilities and supply arms. The PRC would also be subject to a naval blockade that would cripple its export-driven economy and isolate it from most of the world, forcing it to rely on trade that would pass through the former Soviet Republics in central Asia, where there's basically no infrastructure and vast desert. Even if it did take the island, it would have to wage counter-insurgency (COIN) operations against a modernised urban insurgency with access to drones and 3D printers. It's just not feasible for the PRC to wage kinetic war, especially when hybrid operations have already been somewhat successful in building support among the Blues.
Depends.

If Japan supports Taiwan and takes part in the war it would allow the US to land thousands of aircraft and anti-air defenses in the country on top of Japan's powerful native military. This is an enormous change in the power balance of the region and would probably be enough to turn the tide in favor of the West. Japan's current government is actually in favor of recognizing Taiwan and has been surprisingly aggressive in the face of China's Taiwan debate so this isn't as unlikely as a lot of people think.

If Japan does not join the war effort it is more likely that yes, the US would support Taiwan through weapons trade and economic sanctions. Trying to 1v1 China using only the US Navy and a handful of island airbases would be extremely difficult and costly.

However it's extraordinarily likely that the US would not be alone. 85% of Japanese citizens have an unfavorable view of China and as said before, the government reflects those views. There's also The Philippines, Australia, South Korea, India, Vietnam and Indonesia who all have net unfavorable views of China and would lend their support in varying ways (ranging from sanctions to direct military assistance). You also have close traditional US allies like Canada and the UK who would undoubtedly lend military aid to the US / Taiwan. Then lastly there is Europe, spurred on by unity in the face of Ukraine, who would probably have a similar economic embargo against Chinese goods.

So yeah I would agree the US wouldn't fight China on their own. However they certainly wouldn't be alone. The unlikely event of China attacking Taiwan (which in all honestly is like 0%) would be met with global resistance and probably a huge loss for Beijing.
 
Depends.

If Japan supports Taiwan and takes part in the war it would allow the US to land thousands of aircraft and anti-air defenses in the country on top of Japan's powerful native military. This is an enormous change in the power balance of the region and would probably be enough to turn the tide in favor of the West. Japan's current government is actually in favor of recognizing Taiwan and has been surprisingly aggressive in the face of China's Taiwan debate so this isn't as unlikely as a lot of people think.

If Japan does not join the war effort it is more likely that yes, the US would support Taiwan through weapons trade and economic sanctions. Trying to 1v1 China using only the US Navy and a handful of island airbases would be extremely difficult and costly.

However it's extraordinarily likely that the US would not be alone. 85% of Japanese citizens have an unfavorable view of China and as said before, the government reflects those views. There's also The Philippines, Australia, South Korea, India, Vietnam and Indonesia who all have net unfavorable views of China and would lend their support in varying ways (ranging from sanctions to direct military assistance). You also have close traditional US allies like Canada and the UK who would undoubtedly lend military aid to the US / Taiwan. Then lastly there is Europe, spurred on by unity in the face of Ukraine, who would probably have a similar economic embargo against Chinese goods.

So yeah I would agree the US wouldn't fight China on their own. However they certainly wouldn't be alone. The unlikely event of China attacking Taiwan (which in all honestly is like 0%) would be met with global resistance and probably a huge loss for Beijing.
Right now, many of the countries you listed are either dominated by a pro-Beijing government (Philippines, arguably Indonesia) or aren't in any position to go to war. Japan definitely isn't in any state to go to war with the PRC, and realistically war in Taiwan would pose difficulties in Korea. Any real effort to counter the PRC would have to either be led by the United States or an integrated multilateral command structure (think Allies).

A naval blockade wouldn't actually be that costly to maintain because of USINDOPACOM's presence, and would place a lot of strain on the PRC's supply chains. That fact is one of the drivers of China's imperialist ambitions in SE Asia. The Malacca Dilemma is frequently cited by PRC officials as a threat to continued communist governance. India getting involved is also very unlikely, but I would have to imagine that the PRC invading its neighbour would alarm India's government and damage relations with the PRC. But India's armed forces don't really compare to the PRC in terms of hardware. They're relying on Russian/Soviet equipment for fighting a great power.
 
Right now, many of the countries you listed are either dominated by a pro-Beijing government (Philippines, arguably Indonesia) or aren't in any position to go to war. Japan definitely isn't in any state to go to war with the PRC, and realistically war in Taiwan would pose difficulties in Korea. Any real effort to counter the PRC would have to either be led by the United States or an integrated multilateral command structure (think Allies).

A naval blockade wouldn't actually be that costly to maintain because of USINDOPACOM's presence, and would place a lot of strain on the PRC's supply chains. That fact is one of the drivers of China's imperialist ambitions in SE Asia. The Malacca Dilemma is frequently cited by PRC officials as a threat to continued communist governance. India getting involved is also very unlikely, but I would have to imagine that the PRC invading its neighbour would alarm India's government and damage relations with the PRC. But India's armed forces don't really compare to the PRC in terms of hardware. They're relying on Russian/Soviet equipment for fighting a great power.
The point of Japan is that by opening up its territory to US use it allows them to launch air attacks over Taiwan without relying on mid air refueling or vulnerable aircraft carriers. This would magnify US forces available in the area several times.

This isn't a secret either. Japan and the US are well aware. Japan also has support in the government and civilian population for Taiwan. It wouldn't make any sense for Japan to not get involved. Why would they alienate the US, abandon their fellow Pacific island nation ally, and give their rival as much power as needed to break Taiwan.

Japan isn't a helpless Pacifist nation. Their air force, navy, and air defense network is quite modern and competent. I can't imagine a Taiwan crisis scenario where they don't get involved.

I agree other Pacific nations won't get involved militarily but we would see retaliation economically, with trade routes shifting away from China and towards the US / Europe when possible.
 

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The point of Japan is that by opening up its territory to US use it allows them to launch air attacks over Taiwan without relying on mid air refueling or vulnerable aircraft carriers. This would magnify US forces available in the area several times.

This isn't a secret either. Japan and the US are well aware. Japan also has support in the government and civilian population for Taiwan. It wouldn't make any sense for Japan to not get involved. Why would they alienate the US, abandon their fellow Pacific island nation ally, and give their rival as much power as needed to break Taiwan.

Japan isn't a helpless Pacifist nation. Their air force, navy, and air defense network is quite modern and competent. I can't imagine a Taiwan crisis scenario where they don't get involved.

I agree other Pacific nations won't get involved militarily but we would see retaliation economically, with trade routes shifting away from China and towards the US / Europe when possible.
Yeah... Just because it's a "Defense Force" and the constitution against offensive military action remains, people overlook that Japan is always amongst the world's top 10 military budgets... in the ball park of Germany/France's spending (but maybe that will change now).

And you know what? I'd bet Japan's 50 Billion with no nukes and very limited offensive capabilities is spent a lot more efficiently than Russia's 60 Billion while maintaining nukes and grand standing.
 
It's inevitable that China will attempt to take control of Taiwan someday (preferably without force), but inevitable doesn't mean imminent.
I agree with that, the conflict between China and Taiwan is inevidable, but not this time. Don't will be Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan who will be the estopin of this war.
 
The point of Japan is that by opening up its territory to US use it allows them to launch air attacks over Taiwan without relying on mid air refueling or vulnerable aircraft carriers. This would magnify US forces available in the area several times.

This isn't a secret either. Japan and the US are well aware. Japan also has support in the government and civilian population for Taiwan. It wouldn't make any sense for Japan to not get involved. Why would they alienate the US, abandon their fellow Pacific island nation ally, and give their rival as much power as needed to break Taiwan.

Japan isn't a helpless Pacifist nation. Their air force, navy, and air defense network is quite modern and competent. I can't imagine a Taiwan crisis scenario where they don't get involved.

I agree other Pacific nations won't get involved militarily but we would see retaliation economically, with trade routes shifting away from China and towards the US / Europe when possible.
Something to keep in mind though is that Japan just doesn't have the numbers in its forces to fight the PRC, it would be the US doing the majority of the kinetic fighting. Japan's expenditures on sophisticated hardware unfortunately only goes so far. Japan and Taiwan fighting China alone would spell disaster for the Japanese Air Force and Navy, which would be better off blockading the PRC's energy shipments in the Straights of Malacca. You're right that Japan's likely to get involved in such a conflict, but the real issue is the offensive capacity it has, which is dwarfed by the PRC and US. South Korea can't afford to get involved without facing the possibility of an invasion from North Korea. The only real factors tbh in the calculus of war here are the US and PRC.
 
Something to keep in mind though is that Japan just doesn't have the numbers in its forces to fight the PRC, it would be the US doing the majority of the kinetic fighting. Japan's expenditures on sophisticated hardware unfortunately only goes so far. Japan and Taiwan fighting China alone would spell disaster for the Japanese Air Force and Navy, which would be better off blockading the PRC's energy shipments in the Straights of Malacca. You're right that Japan's likely to get involved in such a conflict, but the real issue is the offensive capacity it has, which is dwarfed by the PRC and US. South Korea can't afford to get involved without facing the possibility of an invasion from North Korea. The only real factors tbh in the calculus of war here are the US and PRC.
Agreed. But it wouldn't be Taiwan + Japan vs China, it would be the US + Japan + China. Japan does have a respectable military the real benefit to them entering the war is the use of their airports. With them the US can use the full arsenal of their air force while a neutral Japan would mean the US is limited to the Navy and in-flight refueling.

I don't think Japan would ever willingly fight a war with China 1v1 but since they have everything to gain or lose depending on the winner it seems rational that they would join any sort of coalition in the defense of Taiwan.

In a war where for whatever reason the US doesn't get involved then Japan probably wouldn't join, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where Taiwan is attacked and Japan is willing to fight where the US wouldn't join in.
 
Agreed. But it wouldn't be Taiwan + Japan vs China, it would be the US + Japan + China. Japan does have a respectable military the real benefit to them entering the war is the use of their airports. With them the US can use the full arsenal of their air force while a neutral Japan would mean the US is limited to the Navy and in-flight refueling.

I don't think Japan would ever willingly fight a war with China 1v1 but since they have everything to gain or lose depending on the winner it seems rational that they would join any sort of coalition in the defense of Taiwan.

In a war where for whatever reason the US doesn't get involved then Japan probably wouldn't join, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where Taiwan is attacked and Japan is willing to fight where the US wouldn't join in.
Japan would likely give the Americans access even without getting involved in the war though, Japan has a very strong interest in ensuring that Taiwan remains free from PRC control. You're right though that the only way Japan enters a war is in coalition with other countries.
 
Japan would likely give the Americans access even without getting involved in the war though, Japan has a very strong interest in ensuring that Taiwan remains free from PRC control. You're right though that the only way Japan enters a war is in coalition with other countries.
I guess Japan don't even have a army, he can't lead a war alone. Since the end of WW II, is the USA who provides international security to Japan.
 

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