Data on the friend safari shiny rate

The Scientist

The Scientist

Heheh, not a Silph worker...
is a Researcher Alumnus
I'm sorry, Space Dandy, I'm not familiar with the concept of formals. Can you elaborate on what you had in mind?

Jikuumoogle, I obtained my all my friends in a short period of time before conducting the trials in order to have all friend safari Pokemon available. However, these tests were conducted over a period of 6 months, and if your theory were correct, we should see a steady increase in the shiny rate. Because I did not notice such a phenomenon (you can look at the data yourself in the Google spreadsheet in my signature), I don't think length of time as friends has an affect on the friend safari shiny rate.

I've done a little bit of testing on ORAS. Some people here and there have been suggesting that the Mirage islands and caves have an increased shiny rate like in the friend safari. So far I've found 10 shinies, which is only a few, WITH the shiny charm on a few islands. I'll hopefully search more soon. Right now it's looking like the rate isn't as high as 1/512 like in the friend safari, and I'm skeptical it's at all higher than normal (1/1365- again, I have the shiny charm). The average so far is 1124 encounters per shiny with a standard deviation of 731.

Raw data (number of encounters before a shiny was found):

2191
2138
1108
860
237
954
304
1462
1679
304
 
Last edited:

kuro asuka

I just read something that says that Friend Safaries have 12 active patches every second, and one out of the twelve is shiny!
Thing is, this arrangement changes every second.
I may or may not be wrong, and have no way to prove it, but maybe if someone calculated it, it'll still add up to the odds of 1/512? I don't know!
 
The Scientist

The Scientist

Heheh, not a Silph worker...
is a Researcher Alumnus
kuro asuka, the suggestion is that there are 12 "active" patches, resulting in only 12 possible patches that can result in an encounter at any given second. Furthermore, one of these patches results in a shiny encounter. Is this correct?

If this is true, then wouldn't the shiny encounter rate be 1/12 since presumably when you encounter a Pokemon it is because you encountered one of these "active" patches, and therefore you should have a 1/12 chance of the patch being shiny. If this is indeed the theory being proposed, it's clearly incorrect.
 

melochi

Can you explain how exactly you "approximated binomial distributions" with each theoretical probability? I can't seem to wrap my head around how you got those numbers.
 
The Scientist

The Scientist

Heheh, not a Silph worker...
is a Researcher Alumnus
Melochi, I used the R statistical software to simulate binomial distributions for various probabilities (p=10/4096, p=8/4096, etc.). These distributions were based on n = 1,000,000 trials for different numbers of encounters. In other words, the simulated probability of encountering a shiny over a given number of encounters (100, 200, etc.) was based on the overall probability (10/4094, 8/4094, etc.) of encountering a shiny. The simulated probability was obtained after 1,000,000 trials per # encounters per overall probability. Does this help? If not, which numbers exactly are you confused about?

Harley, the bot was constructed in collaboration with some friends who have experience with robotics for the programming and access to high quality cutting tools for the chassis.
 

mightyduck23

Hi 'The Scientist'. What you've done is amazing. Thanks very much.

I have a question...I have found 5 shinies in the same friend safari. The gap between shiny encounters has increased for every single one by approx. 200 encounters. I noticed Dahlia Clark from the first link you posted 'http://www.diyode.com/2014/02/shiny-charm-and-friend-safari-preliminary-data/' had the same experience with her first encoutners being easier than the latter. Did you experience this at all?
 

Lyllith64

I love this! It really helps! How long does it usually take to get a shiny though? I still have yet to catch one in the safari zone. :(
 
rufus drumknott

rufus drumknott

Lyllith64 said:
I love this! It really helps! How long does it usually take to get a shiny though? I still have yet to catch one in the safari zone. :(
Click to expand...
You can't really estimate how long it takes to get a shiny from the Friend Safari - if it's about 1/500, it doesn't mean that after 500 minutes of 1 encounter per minute, you'll find a shiny. It's just random.

These odds only apply to the Friend Safari in XY, btw. The Safari Zone in ORAS is completely separate, although I've heard the chances of DexNaving a shiny in ORAS is about the same as finding a shiny in the Friend Safari in XY.
 

Lyllith64

rufusdrumknott said:
You can't really estimate how long it takes to get a shiny from the Friend Safari - if it's about 1/500, it doesn't mean that after 500 minutes of 1 encounter per minute, you'll find a shiny. It's just random.

These odds only apply to the Friend Safari in XY, btw. The Safari Zone in ORAS is completely separate, although I've heard the chances of DexNaving a shiny in ORAS is about the same as finding a shiny in the Friend Safari in XY.
Click to expand...
Ok, thank you!
 
Bidabo

Bidabo

This has helped me a lot! I never understood the rates of Friend Safari, so this is wonderful. Thanks for posting this.
 

Charbie27

Straight from bulbapedia
From empirical evidence, Pokémon encountered in the Friend Safari are eight times more likely to be Shiny, with a probability of 1/512; this is unaffected by the Shiny Charm.
 
Zowayix

Zowayix

^That was me who added it to Bulbapedia, referring to this very thread in the first place. Never ever use Bulbapedia as a primary source, or to back up any claims during a dispute. It's completely wrong in numerous subtle places (particularly recently-discovered mechanics, across all generations) but no one's had the time to make all the edits necessary.
 

Wamboot

SkylerBlade you're wrong, it's 1/512

I know this post is dead since more than a year but I was asking something to myself and this is by far the best source of information on FS shinies, so if anybody ever reads this : does a safari without all three slots as less odds of having a shiny ?
 

TheCanadianManectric

Thanks a lot for this thread. I recently found a shiny kecleon in about 50 encounters with the ability protean and I caught it in a quick ball and it was a critical capture. I'm honestly proud of that lol.
 
Lulu~Chibi

Lulu~Chibi

Thanks for this! I was really unsure whether Shiny Charm affects Friend Safaris. Good to see that I don't have to grind for it :) Thanks!
 
Staticッ

Staticッ

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